A Promising Stock Rally Comes Up Short of Important ThresholdIt was a promising week that could have easily ended on a bearish note. Buyers are still coming up just short of confirming bullishness.
A Promising Stock Rally Comes Up Short of Important Threshold drduru.com $SPY $QQQ $AMZN $AA $CWH $EWZ $NIB $RCL $UBX $ULTA #VIX #T2108 #AT40 #forex $AUDJPY
ULTA
Overbought Threshold Rejects A Stock Market With Crossed SignalsThe headlines are headwinds, then tailwinds, then headwinds all over again. The stock market ominously pulled back from overbought again.
"An Overbought Threshold Rejects A Stock Market With Crossed Signals" drduru.com $SPY $QQQ $IWM #AT40 #T2108 #VIX $BA $TOL $BBY $AZO $MNRO $ULTA $AUDJPY #forex
ULTA - Downward channel breakout long from $207.47 to $230ULTA bounced back from its support level & seems breaking out of a downward channel formation. It had quite some insider buying. We think it will continue upward from here.
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- March 8, 2018
Pattern/Why- Downward channel breakout
Entry Target Criteria- Current price ($207.47) (Hit March 9, 2018)
Exit Target Criteria- $230
Stop Loss Criteria- N/A
Indicator Notes- Crossed above its Moving averages
Special Note- Lots of insider buying
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
ULTA 1W CHART ULTA BEAUTY INC ENTRY LEVELAfter an RSI bearish divergence, market reached uptrend line.
Entry level is suggested over MA100 cross for a R/R of 2.4.
28% Profit in 1 year.
This is a save bet in order to diversify your portfolio
WNZ
Get live updates and analysis of the cryptocurrency market: t.me
ULTA due for a correctionULTA is clearly overbought at this point in time. Now is certainly not the time to go long on this equity.
Key Points:
1. Overly bullish sentiment
2. RSI on weekly is around 85 - probably the highest in it's history.
3. RSI on daily has been hovering dangerously around 80 for quite some time.
4. There is no clear RSI divergence from price at this time.
5. Jaws of the Aroons are well open on most time frames.
Issues :
Playing with RSIs are fraught with risk. They can be very deceptive. However the statistical probability is for a corrective fall in price. How much? Impossible to say. Shorting a bull market is far more risky than going long at a pullback in bull market. If one was adopting an acceptable high risk strategy, a stop-loss would have to be pretty wide. I speculate that the correction could be back to around 220, over the next 15 weeks. This could be in two stages. The first correction may be minor.
Overall though, ULTA is 'designed' for a long . I'd be looking to go long at the next major pullback and have set up alerts to catch it e.g. if price collides with 100 or 200EMA.
Long ULTA Short DK YTD 185%ULTA is still rising, albeit on lower volume in recent time. The beauty store provider is still generating strong earnings growth with a 3 Year E.P.S Growth Rate of 25% and an E.P.S % Chg (Last Qtr) of 39%. This is accompanied by a 3-Year Sales Growth Rate of 21% and a Sales % Chg (Last Qtr) of 24%. This shows that an increase in sales is driving E.P.S growth, which is an important factor. Whilst ULTA has experienced lower than average trading volumes since the beginning of June 2016 the relatively small free float of 61 million shares means that the volume is still sufficient to drive the price higher. Trading at all-time-highs doesn't seem to bad when it's doing so on a P/E of 48, a modest premium for a growth stock of this calibre.
Delek U S Holdings Inc (DK) is a US oil refiner, operating largely in southern US states and is doing so at a loss. The stock is down 51% YTD, sales are declining (3-Year Sales Growth Rate -15%, Sales % Chg (Last Qtr) -4%) and earnings are too (3 Year E.P.S Growth Rate -46% and E.P.S % Chg (Last Qtr) -378%). The latest quarterly earnings report was headlined by a slightly improving cash balance and an announcement of cash proceeds from tax refunds and business interruption proceeds, which does not demonstrate improving business fundamentals. Improving the cash balance is important to Delek, considering their debt to equity is around 76% at the most recent report.
With a P/E ratio of 80 and the stock trading around $12, there is certainly plenty of downside remaining.
Bearish candles on Weekly and Daily chartsULTA is in an obvious up trend on the weekly chart. Sort of sideways on the daily chart with an RSI making lower lows and lower highs.
But if you put a lot of stock in candle formations then you might be willing to risk some money to the downside. Bearish formation in Friday's candle on the daily (engulfing candle) within a one on the weekly (upside down hang man).
No position for me but next week I will be watching the price action. There might be a post earnings (last Thursday) move on the horizon this week. Exhaustion could get a pullback below the trendline if there is a reversal move off these recent highs.