Get started

Uncertainty

S&P500 getting more complex by the dayThe S&P500 (and all other major US indices) experienced some (nice?!) whipsaws last week: Neither the bulls nor bears won. Whatever the future may exactly hold, the recent price action is very confusing and still, believe it or not, range bound. I've seen more ways to Elliott wave count the price action over the last two weeks, which in the end IMHO means it is (part of) a corrective structure because everybody can count an impulse down, than one can throw sticks at and at some point one will stick (pun intended). Question is if the correction is already over (red alt: ii) or still on going (green b) Looking at all the available information, my read is that we will continue to have a bullish bias over the next few days, due to the triple 90% up day last Friday for both A/D % and Up/Down Volume %. . This is most likely a strong enough reading to keep markets afloat into the 2950-3000 resistance area, thereby continuing to follow the average pre-election year pattern the market has followed all year long so far. IF price can get above resistance, with a first warning above SPX2965 then the Bulls can push price into the 3100-3200 levels and higher, but this is not my preferred outcome right now. So, while with help of futures' driven monster gap ups the markets are staying afloat, there is no clear resolution yet as to which path the markets are ultimately on. Please remember that IF the Bull train to SPX3900+ has started there's still >800p of upside potential left when this option is confirmed. Current upside potential is maybe therefore 1000p and for those who don't day-trade every blip, it would not be unwise to wait for more certainty. But that's just me. For now the small floor is at SPX2913. Below it opens up SPX2900+/-10p. Trade safe!
SP:SPX
by intelligent_investing
3
Weekly trendline break may happenContinued Euro weakness and uncertainly may strengthen the Yen. Technical trendline break is a possibility if the pair close below for the week. Considering cloud analysis, its still very much bearish but it is at a level of support which may stall the move down. Will have to wait for price action to indicate otherwise to proceed with long sell of the pair. If trade is taken, there is a 300 pip risk for a profit of 600 for next support level.
Short
by MKJabsFX
USOIL MARKET BREAKDOWNPrice Action (Technical Analysis): (4H Time Frame) Following up our Mark Up phase completing at a key level of resistance, price is consolidating, as price is not breaking higher highs after 3 Impulsive Waves. We tend to anticipate a Seller momentum breakout as price is accumulating right above our Golden Fibonacci Level giving us more reason to anticipate a bearish breakout. (Daily Time Frame): We are in a Bullish Market which overrules our lower time frame analysis, daily support is our bullish 61.8% retracement, Price breaking below that level of support would've indicated a break in trend but because price respected it, bullish momentum increased massively. I'd like to see price either break and close above 66.07 or price retest 58.75 one more time to continue Long (Price is above 200 Day EMA, Bullish confirmation). If price breaks below support level, i'll expect a retest before going Short. Following our RSI indication we are close to an oversold market. Fundamental Analysis: Reason why price is consolidating at a very key level, giving us reason to go either way is because we are in a very intense week with G20 Nations, bringing uncertainty to the market. The US-CHN deal is also spoken about throughout key investors, Investors/Traders tend to Sell in uncertainty. To soon to call which way USOIL will go, be cautious of any headlines being released. We have high volatility where price is rallied, we can expect the breakout of either or to be big, until then I anticipate USOIL to progress very slowly.
TVC:USOIL
by RiosTrades
US Stock Markets: And what's Mueller got to do with you?!This screencast is speculative - and I invite the full brain power of Tradingview's community to consider the variables which might affect the US Stock Markets around this time. Let's do this together. The stock market has retreated, probably due to nerves about the Mueller report - among several other things. If the report contains nothing on which Trump is impeachable then, I'm expecting a pump north. Mueller's hit list so far has been : 1. PAUL MANAFORT 2. RICK GATES 3. MICHAEL COHEN 4. MICHAEL FLYNN 5. GEORGE PAPADOPOULOS 6. ALEX VAN DER ZWAAN 7. RICHARD PINEDO (Names are in all caps only due to copy and pasting. Names and convictions are all in the public domain, so I'm not defaming anybody.) Some may think that with so much dirt around it's unlikely that Trump will come out of this clean. Hey, this bull market is about Trump - let's not debate that. If Trump goes down the markets go down like lead balloons. Alternatively, if Trump comes out clean enough, expect bullish moves which may then be limited by other factors. Separate to Mueller's investigation and report, there are 16 other investigations into Trump. If just one sticks, there could be catastrophic collapse of the American markets - with shock waves globally, hitting Forex as well. We have other variables to consider : 1. The Fed 'money printing' press going to be turned up. 2. Bleaker than expected economic projections by the Fed and Draghi. 3. Expected weaker US Dollar - creating bullish pressure in the long term. 4. Flattening or inverted yield curves 5. Uncertainty's and delays on deals with China. 6. Potential Brexit shock waves. 7. Germany struggling against recession. 8. 'Housing' market bubbles in several countries including the US, in trouble. 9. US and Global debt totally out of control. 10 etc. .. and much more. Sorry - I don't know what's gonna happen. I do not give tips on entry positions.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker
2
GBPJPY: To change your perspective, change your perspective.I'm saying, that GBPJPY is in trouble - having pumped north like nobody's business. The technical picture on the weekly is troubled. That means there is opportunity for all traders (long or short) on lower time frames. I'll say no more here. Have a look. And - if you think differently, give to the community your reasoned assessment. It is in giving that we receive. Let's not do the FB thing where you just 'feel' it's gonna go north or south. Thank you.
by Captain_Walker
1
[Potential] EURUSD: Awaiting Brexit's Future PathEURUSD Outlook Technicals: - Stochastics moving into Oversold conditions - Price action close to a Short-Term Resistance Trendline (not a strong trendline and may break) Fundamentals: - Brexit uncertainty in its final stages may cause some volatility on the EUR pairs and GBP pairs; causing it to break the ST Resistance Trendline - On a longer perspective, a weaker dollar outlook from the more dovish FED whom are likely to stay put due to economic datas not released from the ongoing govt shutdown. The chances of FED continue to hike continues to fall and this gives opportunity for carry trades to flourish. We will be waiting for confirmations of multiple confluences before considering this trade setup ready. Patience is the key to success. *This pair outlook is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this outlook is a personal decision and we are not responsible for any losses derived from it.
Long
by weekendanalyst
EURAUD - staying out for the moment. EURAUD is a pair that from my experience has many surprises. This is just based on long experience of understanding the 'personality' of this pair. I also know that there is a probable move south on stockmarkets which the Aussie tends to follow. The EURO took a beating last week, so punters are likely to try for a 'good deal'. So if both happen, EURAUD has some probability of moving north on my favoured time frames. Whilst on the weekly (which I don't trade), the picture suggests probability of travel south, on my favoured lower time frames it looks doubtful. I cannot find a sound entry position, so I'm happy to be left behind if the markets moves further south. Missing out is fine, cuz I'd have lost nothing! And in a 'game' where 80-90% of traders lose money, if I have missed and not lost anything then I'm winning! :))
by Captain_Walker
[BTC] Charts Favoring a Longer Bear Market for BitcoinBeen out of town and offline with little to no trading/charting in the last week or two. Figured I'd take a look at the daily chart so I can set some longer term limit orders until I get back into trading. I could probably explain this chart, the trendlines, and the unmarked elliot and fibonacci analysis I did but that'd take too long. If you wanna see that stuff in more detail or you got some disagreements, hit up the comments cause I always like seeing other people's opinions. So I think I eased back on trading midway through the bounce from last week where the bulls ended up looking like a one-hit wonder that overhyped their next album. Choppy action, not clear signals, trading opportunities faded away. I scaled out all but a small bit of my original position knowing I'd be away from trading as frequently (which honestly saved me from some losses). Since then we ended up rejecting the thinner uptrend line and then broke the more important triangle support in the same move. Quite bearish on the face of it. Fell below Mar-Apr lows but didn't reach Feb lows before today's relief rally on ( debatably ) bullish news. - Resistance at the dotted blue line, not all that important trendline though. - No 5th wave up to test triangle resistance before breaking down. - Bulls failed to produce, bears capitalizing with increased volume indicating triangle pattern break. - Bearish volume spike isn't huge. - Decent bounce before testing Feb. low @ $6000. - Last hope chance for bulls in this Zone of Uncertainty, likely see some sideways consolidation here. Hell if I know which way we go at this point, not gonna try and force any trades right now. All I can say is that I'd be more hesitant to buy if we see a bigger rally back into the triangle. Also, short selling isn't worth the risk yet because of today's bounce. Definitely eager to start buying if we move into support zone near the peak of Summer 2017, roughly $4500-$5500 . If we get that low I'm gonna start scaling in for some long term holdings, even if we end up going further down. But we can argue about that bridge once we burn it.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by NYFinancials
1
DJI is looking dodgy to the novice - S&P500 is no better I'm no pro but in my books DJI looks bad... The S&P500 is no exception as it's following a similar pattern. The worst thing about patterns is that patterns rely on something that has already happened and has nothing to do with what is going to happen. With this said, there has been somewhat uncertainty in global affairs and of course one can't ignore the developments around bitcoin and cryptocurrency powered blockchains. What effect might this have on the market? From a technical point of view - It looks like a repeat and hopefully just a mini bubble pop. In the yellow circles you can see the 77MA "Taking a dip in the water" Below the shaded MA. The first volatile area of uncertainty carried over to a boom in price that peaked into it's own mini bubble just above a 60% increase. This lead to scuba time swimming in uncertainty for a few years. So, a question I ask myself is " Can history repeat itself once again? " The biggest problem I see this time is that we have now reached a time where the word "Money" and "Value" is up for debates. I do believe these markets will go up exponentially at some point. However, this will be after a major transfer in value takes place and these markets integrate new financially efficient systems into their own system. The "markets" as a whole is each individual company that resides within it, so if you're are judging how long, do consider tens of thousands of companies. Not only that, a possible global scale move which brings these numbers to hundreds of thousands. While seeing this unfold, I can only think to myself being thankful that I stopped myself from getting into the market when I did. A friend and coworker has been taking great losses in traditional markets that involve countless intermediaries. Now, in this new market where intermediaries are being eliminated one by one, it seems that even the big losers are still fascinated by it's future. As an amateur on the sidelines just testing out these new innovations. All I can say is. Holy S#8+ Wall Street! What are the men in black going to do? When I say is history going to repeat itself. I'm thinking the history goes beyond than decades... Remember, I'm just a regular guy, so any opinions?
DJ:DJI
by damiensuccess
2
Is March 29th the "Day of Reckoning"? (BTC)I've drawn on my chart two primary structures - the long-term ascending channel (dating back to 03/25/17) and the shorter term descending channel (from 12/16/17). We've already fallen out of the short-term descending channel in February but touched the longer-term ascending channel and bounced off it neatly. Based on the development of these micro- and macro-trends, the nexus of a giant wedge bound by the two channels is set to coincide on March 29. Will the development over the next three weeks be critical to the health of BTC and the market as a whole? IF we fall out of the wedge, how far? If we break out, how high? Thoughts / input?
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by involver
Weekly Channel UP There is a weekly channel UP on the AUDUSD, The weekly 20 EMA has held for the early stages of the trading week, with a lower than expected retail figures for January, and positive Current Account Numbers for Q4. We await the RBA interest rate announcement at 2:30 Pm today. It is anticipated to remain at 1.50% On the lower time frames the H4 is no longer behaving as normal for a downtrend (no sharp rejection on H4 of the 20 EMA) and the 60 has formed a W double bottom. Historically when this pair is trending strongly it does not consolidate around the moving average, normally see a pullback rise to the 20 EMA followed by a one or two candle reversal away. Fundamental factors: Uncertainty in markets over impact of US Tarrifs and a potential trade war. Upcoming RBA announcement of rates and Hawkish comments from Powell at the FED which may boost USD strength. Global uncertainty and sharemarket volatility may see a push to gold which has somewhat of a corelation to the Aussie.
by Christopher-James
Ethereum struggling to go up with confidenceHello everyone. What i showed in this chart is a clear support and resistance zones from previous pushes and pulls, as well as a big fib retracement showing that we have a MAJOR support line between 765 and 780$. Also, we have somewhat a strange situation upwards, since even though major resistance is high up, between 970 and 1000$, judging by previous resistance and fib retracements, we dont have much buying power to go to the upside, which is shown on the volume chart. Also, we are heading upwards straight into 4h 100 moving average. On top of that, we are not overbought or oversold yet on the RSI side, but it still shows uncertainty towards the upside. I'd say this is a no trade zone for me, since the upside isn't big enough for me to enter such a risky trade. Time will tell where ethereum goes, but so far, it's a stalemate.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by CryptoNapp
2 Options for BTC: I see a key date of Feb 19 for a defined trend showing either a bullish breakout at the end of the wedge which appears to be in equilibrium at $8600 or a resumption of the bearish trend seen so far in 2018. Key drivers are FUD feeding the bears and 'a lack of FUD' feeding the bulls (unless another 'Giancarlo SEC hearing type moment' occurs). Perhaps more news on the USDT subpoena will add influence. Hard to define what the market will do ATM. My view is wait out and see. I'm holding my coins for now.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn2246128
BTC reasons to short Hard to tell whether BTC turns into bullish, or into bearish in the next 24-48h... My loose guess is bearish , because - 1d CCI < 10 - 1d RSI has not entered into the lower low zone (30ish) - OBV could not get back to before-dump level contra: OBV has get back to its EMA! if it falls, my guess for the bottom is 9k-ish, if it rise, I think about a kind of longer stagnation. This is NOT a trading advise, just a biased opinion, comments/criticism/contradictions (preferably reasoned) welcome!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by bricoleurs