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Uncertainty

Possible swing tradeThe BTC market is unpredictable, everything in my head says it should have a retracement but my gut is telling me we have 1 more push to go through. To be honest it's a risky trade, you could get a 2k-3k per BTC trade out of this swing but seeing that Coinbase was down when we went to 8k and Gdax was experiencing massive lag you can't be really sure if you'll be able to sell, the other way would be to put limit orders, though with this volatility nothing is certain. From what I see, we'll be getting a push to 14-15k around the Wall Street BTC Features Market, thought little people seem to know that the features market is a bet on high and lows, it's more of a casino game then actually trading, so NO NEW MONEY will be coming from that market for now. BTC seems to be moving fast, my first prediction was a 50%-65% retracement around March but now it seems it could happen anytime between the end of December and February. Nothing is certain, not sure if we should invest. 20% gains is nothing to snuff at, but is it worth to lose you're money if it goes down to 6k? The risk is insane!!! The Parabolic movement is just insane, we've been going through 50-60% cycle the whole year. It goes up 50-60%, then down by 20-25%, then up to a new cycle the time is being halfed if that continues we should have another cycle starting now and then ending in like 5 days. THAT"S INSANE!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sirkillo0o
2
The Tremendous Safe Haven.Bitcoin will take 2017 with storm. The fundamentals is definitely there, and we have a perfect cup & handle in the making. Final Target - 11,000 CNY. Fundamentals: Europe Big political and economic uncertantity in Europe after events like Brexit and the Italian referendum. There's a populist anti-establishment wave going on in Europe and that's really bad for the EU (Positive for Bitcoin though). Italy might see the 5 star movement in office after Renzi's defeat. But more important, France is holding election next year and the far right candidate Marine Le Pen is at 40% today. Given the trend that's going on in Europe, there is a big possibility of a Le Pen victory. Banking Sector We are seeing weak banks all around and a bank crisis in the near future is not out of the question. A little while ago we saw Deutsche Bank struggle, and though it's going better right now for the bank, the future may not. Right now Dei Paschi (biggest Italian bank) is in the spotlight. They will likely need a bail-out. If not, and the bank collapses, it would drag others with it down the drain. Goverments will keep doing what they can to rescue their banks from going under, but remember, one collaps could trigger the "rest". There may come a domino effect and boom we have a bank crisis on our hands. Sitting in Bitcoin sounds pretty good in the case of these events, compared to fiat, right? Donald Trump Big money is welcoming a Trump presidency with an open heart (well, for now atleast). We are seeing ATH's all around and a bullish perspective on the US economy with Trump as president. But we dont' buy it, not for a single second. Donald Trump is a terrible businessman. He may be good at making a profit when he takes advantage of the laws and screws everybody over and some may call that a good businessman, but those business tactics will be terrible for the US economy. And though big money is welcoming him, we believe most are afraid and the ATH's we are seeing is just for the smart money to exit. Remember this? blogs.wsj.com Trump presidency is also bullish for Bitcoin because Trump himself should have a positive view on the currency. You would atleast think so even though he has never expresses his opinion on the matter. That's the big things, but overall there is a significant amount of positive fundamentals for Bitcoin . To give a few more: Bitcoin Is Legal says Russion Federal Tax Service There has been big uncertantity surrounding Bitcoin in Russia. Now the goverment has finally taken a position and it's a positive one. India Rupee Restriction Gives Bitcoin a Boost. India may be the next reason for a BTC pump. Narendra is taking the 500 & 1000 bills out of the economy and making people in India to flock towards Bitcoin. We are seeing huge premiums on India's exchanges. Bitcoin Demand Seen Rise as Chine Restricts Gold-Importation. China is now trying even harder to keep the capital inside it's borders. Restricting the chinese from gold will drive more people to Bitcoin as an alternative. Mostly gone unoticed, but we see this as a huge bullish signal. Why arent Bitcoin Buisnesses Talking Segwit? Segwit is coming and that is a big technical advancement. Making room for a larger bitcoin economy so to speak.
BLong
by Kryptokelly
10
A Long Trade on Gold ! Political tensions between US and Russia and the uncertainty in the Eurozone affected global markets yesterday. Investors were seeking long positions on safe havens such as Gold and the Japanese Yen. Gold was up $17 yesterday, it has now touched the 1.618 Fib level of the December to January 2017 rally.It acted as a nice resistance and I see the metal correcting to the 1262.93 support level. This level was previously a nice resistance in late February and should be the perfect spot to enter a long position. A golden cross of the 65 EMA over the 200 EMA is about to happen. This is a good indication of a bullish trend change. If Gold jump over the 1.618 level we should keep an eye at the old trendline and wait for a re-test at the 1279.92. Stop Loss should be below the pink trendline ($1250-$1255) Cheers
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TheMauritianStockTrader
Reminder: Gold investment idea for the year 2017Gold could be a great very long-term investment entry to hedge against a crash of the "S&P 500" in the year 2017 and beyond, after the election of Donald Trump. Here is my original "Gold" chart I made 5 months ago. The price of my lower entry arrow has been reached, plus the time window has been reached, which is why I publish this reminder. This chart is posted as neutral, because there is not yet enough price movement to the upside to fully confirm this entry signal, plus the time window has just started. So there could be one more dip to the downside before the actual larger rally starts later in 2017. Ideas supporting Gold as safe haven investment in 2017 and beyond: The new US president sleeps only 3-4 hours per night according to his butler and according to his 2004 book "Trump: Think Like a Billionaire". This lack of sleep might cause chronic sleep deprivation, with symptoms including sudden mood swings and emotional imbalance. That could lead to more stock market volatility in the future, which would benefit safe haven assets like "Gold". Trump has appointed more military generals in his cabinet than any president since World War II. This might lead to a foreign policy that is less inspired by civilian ideas and more heavily dependent on U.S. military. In addition the political risks around the world are increasing, as measured by the “Economic Policy Uncertainty” (EPU) index, which scans the entire spectrum of news sources each day for words indicating worry, doubt, and contingency about policy direction. This index has negative correlation with equity prices and a high positive correlation with stock market volatility. In most economies around the world, the EPU index is currently surging. A GDP-weighted average of the EPU indexes from 17 countries has recently hit unprecedented heights—higher than 9/11, Gulf War II, the GFC, or the Euro-Crisis of 2011. Sources: Will Policy Uncertainty Hammer Markets? The “Economic Policy Uncertainty” (EPU) index www.forbes.com Trump's butler for almost 30 years www.bbc.com Trump's potential chronic sleep deprivation www.huffingtonpost.com Trump's admiration of generals www.politico.com
AMEX:GLD
by ChartArt
3
SELL NZDUSD @0.73 - TP 700PIPS: BREXIT, RBNZ, FED & USDJPY HEDGEShort NZDUSD is in my top 2 FX Trades for several reasons: 1. NZD is considered the riskiest G10 currency cross, so NZD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph). - With Brexit occurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for NZD due to commonwealth connections. Therefore NZD is likely to come under pressure in the future as risk-off sentiment continues to dominate, as the US Election nears, Global growth worries continue (Japan, Europe, China) and Brexit/ uncertainty about further EuroArea exits continues to intensify - we can see Gold and US Treasuries continue to gain supporting the risk-off view and thus supporting selling NZD. Also, risk-off encourages $ buying as a safe haven deposit on the Brexit backdrop. - Further, going into earnings season next week, historically risk currencies (NZD) perform poorly as investors seek safer assets to hedge against earning surprises, thus this helps NZD selling and USD buying. Plus, most investors will want to hold some $ cash in order to fulfil their earnings based equity trading, so this also helps the short Kiwi$ trade by increasing $ demand relative to NZD. 2. The RBNZ Meeting on the 10th August is likely to be dovish and I 80% expect a rate cut of 25-50bps from 2.25% to 2.00%-1.75% , as;1) Brexit risks are weighed in on and potentially priced into a rate decision, in follow up to the supportive/ dovish statements from RBNZ members immediately after the Brexit decision and 2) NZD Macro Environment has performed poorly since the March Rate cut from 2.5% to 2.25% e.g. The last prints still consistently dragging: Retail Sales at 1.0% vs 1.1%qoq & 0.8% vs 1% Q1qoq; CPI 0.4% yoy, 0.2% qoq; Unemployment Rate at 5.7% vs 5.5%. 3) the RBNZ has a historical pattern of cutting their rate every third meeting, and this August meeting is the third meeting. Plus it will have been 5 months since their last cut in March - this also historically is a large time for a another rate cut as previously to that the RBNZ cut in December, Dec-Mar which was only 3 months, and before that in october (oct-dec) which was 2 months so the odds are good if NZD data continues to be bad given the time since the last cut of 5 months is relatively large. And the gap since their last meeting at June 10th is 2 months which is the biggest gap they have. - Risks to the RBNZ Rate cut view are that;1) Brexit risks are de-priced due to UK Political skulduggery pushing the likelihood of the brexit into 2017 (if at all) 2) Their Inflation, Employment and GDP data manage to recover and show structural signs that the rate at 2.25% is sufficient for continued economic recovery e.g. NZD May Employment Change print surprised to the upside at 1.2% vs 0.8%, and their June GDP outperformed for Q1 at 0.7% vs 0.5% qoq & 2.8% vs 2.6% yoy. So if the CPI and employment data due to be released before the RBNZ August 10th meeting shows a continued/ structural/ aggressive recovery this will reduce the likelihood of a rate cut. Nonetheless, my money is that this isn't the case (with data continuing to trade subdued) and I therefore expect them to provide reassurance to markets with a strong dovish tone, and a 25bps cut - citing Brexit and non-outstanding economic indicators as the impetus for the changed policy. *It should be noted, in order for me NOT to consider a 25bps cut likely in August we would have to see an outstanding CPI and employment print e.g. CPI 1.0%-0.8% (0.4% last), and unemployment 5.3/4% (5.7% last), given it has been 5 months since the last cut - the RBNZ would be expecting to see such figures to consider the current rate of 2.25% as working/ sufficient.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
13
BREXIT GBP: USE USDJPY AS A RISK-BAROMETER & WAIT FOR LONDON 8AMIndicators to check BEFORE GBP Shorting for confirmation I also suggest using two other key pieces of information BEFORE shorting GBP. 1. Use USDJPY as a measure of market risk appetite and stability - As you can see below UJ has traded with a tight 38pip range vs GBP$ at 180pips. Therefore we can use UJ as a measure of stability and risk appetite: 1) because of its stability - UJ isn't acting as susceptible to the volatility "noise" - with 4.5x less range; and 2) because as we know UJ is the "safe haven" FX pair which is sold massively when markets are trading risk-off. or risk averse. - How to use UJ for GBP direction: Assuming UJ is the stable measure of risk (which has been true for the past week) it is fair to ALSO assume: 1) A rise in UJ means increased JPY selling which means there is a stronger risk-on attitude in the market as investors shed "safe yen" - buying GBP in the uncertain BREXIT environment IMO is considered the "risk-on" move - SO we can confirm GBP rallies with a rise in UJ 2) Conversely a fall in UJ means JPY buying, which means investors are seeking risk-off/ safer currency plays - selling GBP in the BREXIT uncertainty environment IMO is considered the "risk-off/ low risk" move - SO we can confirm new GBP shorts with a fall in UJ *If you believe that the risk-on/ risk-off moves are the other way round e.g. GBP upside is the low risk play - then you can STILL use UJ as the indicator, just the other way around than above. IMO and logically, GBP lower in this uncertain UK environment is the LOW RISK trade - especially given we traded at 1.46 8wks ago (not much downside is priced at these levels thus GBP moves lower are lower risk) 2. Wait for London open between 8am-10am GMT (4-6 hours from now) - In these past weeks, the London open has been a key catalyst for GBP direction ESPECIALLY on the Sunday-Monday Asia which over as all of the weekend information is priced in for the biggest FX clients in LDN. - Therefore it is prudent NOT to take a position until the big money volatility/ fluctuations/ noise is out of the way otherwise SL's may be susceptible to being hit AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, we may misjudge the market direction/ sentiment (given LDN is the largest FX Flow session). - Several times the market direction and momentum has changed or been confirmed aggressively during the London open 8am-10am GMT so I think this indicator is a vital determinant
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
GBPUSD: THE RUN DOWN & HOW TO TRADE - FOMC & UK EU REFERENDUM 1This article is a tradable summary of all of the indepth GBP$ analysis i have done recently - I aim to give you a conclusive opinion and trading plan. SEE PART 2 ALSO I suggest you check out ALL of the relevant articles that i attach to this post so that this post makes sense In a nutshell i am heavily short GU, about 8-9/10 @1.44/5 (@1.41 only 2/10) - so i advise shorting ANY pullbacks we get to >1.44 in the coming weeks. - Also SHORT EU is a good trade as IMO it is heavily over brought, and hasnt priced any of the fundamental supply/demand stimulus ( e.g. EU is trading at levels higher since the dec 15th hike, March ECB cut and UK EU Ref uncertainty pricing) which all should have depressed the market lower. Thus short EU might be the better play if we dont get any GU pullbacks, since EU still has alot of downside to factor in imo. Volatility - The best indicator for dis-ciphering what the market has in store for GU and EU imo is implied volatility, since it uses options (actual demand/ supply of the market) to predict what the volatility will be in the future. - Currently EU and GU on Friday both traded in their 2 year 99th and 100th percentile implied vol reading at 14.78% and 16.15 respectively. - Furthermore, GU's IV has been trading higher everyday this week and has set new 52wk highs everyday. The volatility (time horizon) curve is severely fattened/ steepened around the next 2 weeks due to the up coming e.g. 23.55% 16.5% 16.15% 13.75% 10.25% 1m fwd 1wk fwd current 1wk ago 1m ago - Hence, and as you can see, now (or last week or the week before that) is the time to get on the curve for GU downside since volatility has been rising and is projected, to rise into the FOMC and UK EU Ref - before tailing off quite considerably (3m fwd at 16%, 6m fwd at 13.25%). - In addition to this we are seeing Historical Vol trade relatively flat - indicating that GU price action hasn't yet fully priced in the potential future event volatility, meaning we can expect large legs downwards in the future, since HV isnt at extremely high levels (as pictured), there is certainly room for price action vol to move higher, thus there is room for GU to trade heavily bid and shed a several more 100pips. - Further we have seen a negative shift in Risk Reversals for GU and EU - GU the most extreme now with 1wks at -1 and 1m at -7.6 (EU -0.1 and -0.45). Risk Revs (RR) look at the Supply/Demand of OTM Call/Put options and RR is the difference between the vol of calls minus puts.. GU RR is currently growingly negative at -1 and -7.6, implying that puts are trading much more expensive than calls as their demand is higher. GU puts are more expensive as investors over the next 1wk-1m period are increasingly demanding downside GU exposure or want to hedge their underlying length MORE than they want upside call exposure. From this skewed options market demand for puts (rather than calls) we can observe that GU downside is net what the market is positioning for, and therefore, GU downside/ short is ALSO what we should consider playing in the spot market. Increasing volatility and decreasing RR supports SHORT positions as; 1. investors dont want to hold assets that have increased vols (it is seen as increased uncertainty and risk) and 2. investors are increasingly purchasing put options which at some level DOES represent investor sentiment in the spot market also - these are why i advise getting short if you haven't already, asap for GU to play the volatility.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
GBPUSD: THE RUN DOWN & HOW TO TRADE - FOMC & UK EU REFERENDUM 2I suggest you check out ALL of the relevant articles that i attach to this post so that this post makes sense SEE PART 1 ALSO GBPUSD historical Price Action The findings of previous the attached "Price action history posts" led to the conclusion that referendum history clearly wasn't repeating itself however IMO because this is the case it has opened up massive opportunities - for example; - Price Action for the SUR sold off a massive 1000pips 8 weeks before the vote, then recovered 400pips 2wks leading into the vote in 2014 - such price action didnt present much trading opportunity since the risks were priced so early, many retail investors missed the big move and probably made heavy losses by shorting in the 2wks into the event when the market actually rose. - HOWEVER, the market for the UER has been trading sideways/ directionless (with a slight upwards bias) for over 16wks only gaining from 1.41-1.45, with many candles failing to hold onto their extreme high/lows - simply open-close at median levels which further confirms the lack of conviction; this has meant that GU now trades considerably ABOVE lows at 1.38 which means there is clear room for a down trend to emerge and thus we can be confident/ safe in taking SHORTS on the pair at levels signif above the 1.38, as we can assume that the market will seek out the recent 1.38 lows if a downtrend does emerge - theres a clear and nearby target for a downtrend. Fundamentals and Summary - FOMC has started its hike cycle, GU is extremely sensitive to US rates and shed well over 1000pips in the run up and after the December FOMC meeting (compared to the EURO who still trades above hike levels). Thus we can assume that future rate increases, or the speculation that they will increase, will continue to price GU lower. The UK BOE isnt likely to raise Rates until late 2017/2018 as our economy (CPI 0.3% vs US 1.1%/ Core 1.2% vs US 2.1%), thus this Monetary Policy divergence theme is likely to continue for sometime, consequently devaluing GBP consistently lower and lower in the future, as it has done before, which gives me confidence in this part of the trade. Furthermore, in the short term the UK EU Referendum will serve as uncertainty that will undoubtably drive GU down in the near term - regardless of the result as the uncertainty WILL drive rational investors from holding sterling. - I like being short sterling over the short and long term as the CB Policy divergence, imo, will serve as a consistent underlying seller of GBP over the next 1/2 years whilst the UK EU Ref provides us near term downside pressure. ALSO, being short sterling into the Ref and into future FOMC meetings means you benefit from the carry of the "event tail risks" e.g. you are positively exposed to any probabilisticly unlikely, but possible, events - which would be extremely profitable e.g. if UK vote to leave EU you have downside already placed on GBP or if FOMC steepen the hiking curve we are positioned to benefit. - As discussed earlier, over the weekend i thought using CHF or JPY to combine with short GBP or EUR may be effective as 1. CHF and JPY both havent priced lower as heavily as USD (relatively more downside value available). 2. By being long CHF/JPY on the basis of being short GBP because of Brexit risks, you are able to hold the risk-off assets which make the trade 2-way e.g. you collect the GBP Brexit uncertainty selling AND the JPY/CHF buying as investors flee to safety - such 2-way trades create exponentially more downside momentum since you have TWO drivers. TRADING STRATEGY: SELL/ FADE ANY PULL BACKS IN A PYRAMID e.g. 3@1.450, 2@1.445 & 1@1.44! SL: 1.48 - holding until June 23/24th, or 27th of July for all 2 X FOMC and the BREXIT REF event volatility carry TP: Fed hike = <1.38; Fed Hawk = 1.40; Brexit uncertainty = <1.40; Brexit YES = < 1.345. Brexit & Hike = <1.30
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
4
PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS - GBPUSD: SCOTTISH UK V UK EU REFERENDUM 2This article compares the price and technical analysis of GBPUSD in the 10-weeks leading into the two events in order to gain an execution-able advantage going into the UK EU Referendum taking place on the 23rd June 2016. Ranges Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14 - GU started the period at 1.7000 and closed the period at 1.64000, with highs at 1.7150 and lows at 1.6000 with a range of 1150pips. - In the last 5 weeks (Aug.18th-Sep 18th) GU opened at 1.6730, closed at 1.6400 with highs at 1.6730 and lows at 1.6000 and a range of 730 pips - Close to open of 330pips - In the last 5 weeks (Aug.1st-Sep5th 5wk comparison) GU opened at 1.6877, closed at 1.6300 with highs at 1.6877 and lows at 1.6277 and a range of 600pips. - from week 10-13 GU shed the the Recovery/ No vote volatility gains, and traded from 1.6400 to 1.5900 with a range of 500 pips. UK EU REF - 10 weeks = 18.April.16 to 23.June.15 - GU started the period at 1.4270 and closed at 1.4500 - range of 600 pips - 1.4170 to 1.4770. -In the last 5 Weeks (5wk comparison) however GU traded flat open to close at 1.4500-10, but with a range of 400pips 1.4340 to 1.4730. Comparisons In general, the Scot Ref traded/closed much closer to its ranges than the UK EU Ref has to date e.g. in the "comparative" last 5wks, Scot Ref opened at 1.6877 (which was its high also) and closed at 1.6300 (only 30 pips from its range low at 1.6270) so GU ate 570/600pips of its range - illustrating that the Scot Ref had much more directional bias since it traded and held its extreme levels. Where as the UK EU Ref comparative 5wk period, opened at 1.4500 and closed at 1.4510, but with a range of 1.4340 to 1.4730, so GU only managed to eat/commit to 10/400pips that it ranged - illustrating that the UK EU Ref has lot direction commitment and 0 trend, it is a sideways ranging market. Technicals Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14 - RSI, STOCH and RVI sold off in the first weeks of the 10wk period, then remained severly under pressure for the remainder of the 8wk sell off - all of which failing to break 40 and posting lows of 13 with several <20s. The event driven recovery between the 9th sep to 18th sep however helped the technicals recover to 50 levels. - Historical vol, traded in an uptrend during the first 8wk selloff from 2 to 11, before falling slightly during the recovery and spiking again to 10-12 around the REF date due to event volatility. UK EU REF - 10 weeks = 18.April.16 to 23.June.15 - RSI and RVI have been bullish, trading in the upper 60% all of the time, with several "overbrought" conditions arising at 70. - Historical vol has traded relatively flat, ranging between 6-12 with it ticking up in recent times to trade above 10 on most days now. - Stoch oscillated throughout the period, with a bias to the downside, showing two oversold conditions of <20, illustrating the bullish trend as it was the little pullbacks that caused these conditions. * See the first article in this series (linked to this article) *Look out for my upcoming article where i will discus what the above differences mean and what they imply price action will do in the next two weeks going into the UK EU Ref and FOMC .
by QuantumLogicTrading
5
PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS - GBPUSD: SCOTTISH UK VS UK EU REFERENDUMThis article compares the price and technical analysis of GBPUSD-0.27% in the 10-weeks leading into the two events in order to gain an execution-able advantage going into the UK EU Referendum taking place on the 23rd June 2016. Ranges Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14 - GU started the period at 1.7000 and closed the period at 1.64000, with highs at 1.7150 and lows at 1.6000 with a range of 1150pips. - In the last 5 weeks (Aug.18th-Sep 18th) GU opened at 1.6730, closed at 1.6400 with highs at 1.6730 and lows at 1.6000 and a range of 730 pips - Close to open of 330pips - In the last 5 weeks (Aug.1st-Sep5th 5wk comparison) GU opened at 1.6877, closed at 1.6300 with highs at 1.6877 and lows at 1.6277 and a range of 600pips. - from week 10-13 GU shed the the Recovery/ No vote volatility gains, and traded from 1.6400 to 1.5900 with a range of 500 pips. UK EU REF - 10 weeks = 18.April.16 to 23.June.15 - GU started the period at 1.4270 and closed at 1.4500 - range of 600 pips - 1.4170 to 1.4770. -In the last 5 Weeks (5wk comparison) however GU traded flat open to close at 1.4500-10, but with a range of 400pips 1.4340 to 1.4730. Comparisons In general, the Scot Ref traded/closed much closer to its ranges than the UK EU Ref has to date e.g. in the "comparative" last 5wks, Scot Ref opened at 1.6877 (which was its high also) and closed at 1.6300 (only 30 pips from its range low at 1.6270) so GU ate 570/600pips of its range - illustrating that the Scot Ref had much more directional bias since it traded and held its extreme levels. Where as the UK EU Ref comparative 5wk period, opened at 1.4500 and closed at 1.4510, but with a range of 1.4340 to 1.4730, so GU only managed to eat/commit to 10/400pips that it ranged - illustrating that the UK EU Ref has lot direction commitment and 0 trend, it is a sideways ranging market. Technicals Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14 RSI, STOCH and RVI sold off in the first weeks of the 10wk period, then remained severly under pressure for the remainder of the 8wk sell off - all of w hich failing to break 40 and posting lows of 13 with several <20s. The event driven recovery between the 9th sep to 18th sep however helped the technicals recover to 50 levels. Historical vol, traded in an uptrend during the first 8wk selloff from 2 to 11, before falling slightly during the recovery and spiking again to 10-12 around the REF date due to event volatility. UK EU REF - 10 weeks = 18.April.16 to 23.June.15 RSI and RVI have been bullish, trading in the upper 60% all of the time, with several "overbrought" conditions arising at 70. Historical vol has traded relatively flat, ranging between 6-12 with it ticking up in recent times to trade above 10 on most days now. Stoch oscillated throughout the period, with a bias to the downside, showing two oversold conditions of <20, illustrating the bullish trend as it was the little pullbacks that caused these conditions. *Look out for my upcoming article where i will discus what the above differences mean and what they imply price action will do in the next two weeks going into the UK EU Ref and FOMC .
by QuantumLogicTrading
GBPUSD OPEN - 100 PIPS LOWER; UNDERPRICED RISK = SELL PULL BACKSA disappointing open from cable with a bears perspective. Gapping down 100 pips to 1.435 almost immediately puts my sell limit orders (at 146.5) in "unlikely" territory of being hit this week. On friday following the $ EMP report cable managed to rally to 1.458 - i was hopeful it would tick a few more pips upward before the slew of selling started as we move further into FOMC and Brexit event Uncertainty territory. Reason being, i was looking for better/ safer levels to short at - cable at 1.465 is an almost CERTAIN trade (the ones i like) as the next daily support level isnt until 1.443 which means there was over 200 pips of 0 risk equity upside to be collected. Since we are already trading well below last weeks lows at 1.436, we will likely soon test the daily support level at 1.433 then 1.430. TRADING STRATEGY: SELL/ FADE ANY PULL BACKS IN A PYRAMID e.g. 1@1.450, 2@1.456 & 3@1.464! TPSL is discretionary.. i personally have my stops just above 1.48 (on my current shorts at 1.45as I will be holding until the 23/24th of june (to include the FOMC and BREXIT REF volatility) which at somepoint IMO will yield at least TP1.5x the amount of SL = 250/300pips. FOMC hike = 1.38 or 700pips; FOMC Hawkish = 1.41 or 400 pips; BREXIT uncertainty = 1.40-1 or 400-500pips; BREXIT YES = < 1.345. Thus the risks from 1.45 are certainly skewed to the downside for cable (upside for shorts) in my opinion. Above is my strategy for this week, given it is the last realistic week we will be able to add "risk-cheap" shorts to our portfolios (given FOMC is on the 16th and brexit ref on the 23rd). BUT given we have already started the week lower, I think the market has finally begun to price in the cheap risk hence the 100 pips lower - you will see in my previous articles i said to short cable anything below 1.45 - which is now 150pips of upside and looking good for more!
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
FINALLY! GOLD COMPLETES THE RISK-OFF *3* - !SHORT EQUITIES!Finally Gold completes the market risk-off 3 for rallying... we not have JPY, BONDS and GOLD all rallying - this completes the set of 3 -riskoff indicators, we are now in full bear mode for stock markets imo.. as you can tell from the US Treasuries and JPY, these riskoff assets have been gaining value for some time, gold has been lagging behind but today following a poor NFP print but STRONG Unemployment print. IMO gold is rallying higher as the probability for a fed hike becomes higher since unemployment is their target measure along with inflation (and not NFP as some will believe). with all 3 riskoff assets rallying this means there CANNOT be enough liquidity in the market to push risk assets (SPX/NAS100/DJ30) to new highs as well - its all but a 0 sum game - the liquidity to push JPY BONDS and GOLD higher MUST have come from risk assets. I believe this will be the end of the modest bull run for equities #downwego probably starting next week. A movement lower in equities at his point is well served - we have many high risk events coming up and i believe people will be getting out of risk and into safety starting next week given 1: fed on the 16th 2. brexit on the 23rd and also BOJ on the 16th (along with a slew of other Central banks also due to declare their monetary policy). Given the above uncertainties/ Risks NOW seems a perfect time for investors to flee to safety and for the SPX to follow suit 5-10% lower in the coming weeks. As per my previous articles this answers all of the questions, we now have enough uncertainty momentum to push gold UP and stocks down IMO.. the paradoxical bonds/jpy AND stocks higher will come to an end in the coming days with STOCKS selling off for at least 4 weeks. PLease see the attached articles for more information.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
MACRO VIEW: XLF AT MACRO UNCERTAINTY, STILL RECOVERING FROM 2008Financial SPDR ETF is still recovering from 2008 losses and did not make it back in terms of prices. On long term basis - XLF has only recently crossed back the 10-year mean upwards (now at 21.50) and have been in 5-year uptrend until the recent August selloff. Currently it is trading within 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean, showing no macro trend. On short term basis - XLF is also showing no trend, as the price is trading within 1st standard deviations from 1-year and quarterly means. In summary, the 5-year uptrend will resume only after price will cross back 24 (5-year uptrend border). Until then, trend is lateral.
AMEX:XLF
by Killy_Mel
MACRO VIEW: XLE AT MACRO UNCERTAINTY, ON DOWNTREND RISKEnergy SPDR ETF is at macro uncertainty with a prospect of continued fall (much like the oil market) On long term basis - XLE is trading below its 10-year mean at 68.5, signalling uncertainty - as price close to a long term means indicates an outlier event, with institutional traders unsure of what to do with the stock. The price is also close to a potential macro downtrend, as it trades close to 5-year downtrend border at 66 (lower 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean) On short term basis - XLE confirms the downward risk, as price is trading very close to 1-year downtrend border at 67.5 (lower 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean). Thus if price falls below 67.5 it will have good probability of falling below 66, entering a downtrend on 5-year basis.
AMEX:XLE
by Killy_Mel
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: WMT @ MACRO UNCERTAINTY, AT SHORT TERM RISK For WallMart stocks, 2015 was not a good year so far... Trading between macro means on long term basis, price signalling uncertainty. Price has recently failed 5-year mean at 69 and is now between it and 10-year mean at 60. No trend on macro basis is an outlier, indicating that currently long term institutional investors are unsure regarding this company. On short term basis WMT is on a risk of further decline, as it is trades below 1st st deviation from mean. The short term level is above 5 year mean, so as long as price will be trading below 69, it risks to fall onto the 10-year mean at 60
NYSE:WMTShort
by Killy_Mel
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: VERIZON IN UNCERTAINTY, ON SHORT TERM RISKAt least stock price wise, not all is looking good for Verizon... Trading between macro means on long term basis, price signalling uncertainty. Price has recently failed 5-year mean at 44 and is now between it and 10-year mean at 38. No trend on macro basis is an outlier, indicating that currently long term institutional investors are unsure regarding this company. On short term basis VZ is on a risk of further decline, as it is trades below 1st st deviations from both quarterly and yearly means Both short term levels are above 5 year mean, so as long as price will be trading below 44, it risks to fall onto the 10-year mean at 38
NYSE:VZShort
by Killy_Mel
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: UTX IN MACRO UNCERTAINTY, ON SHORT TERM RISKUnited Technologies in a very risky situation... On long term basis price is trading between 10-year and 5-year means. Price close to macro means is actually an outlier, an indication of uncertainty of major market participants and investors regarding the stock. On short term basis price is currently on downward risk, as it trades below the 1st standard deviation form both 1-year mean and quarterly means - at 98 and 89 respectively - indicating downtrends on yearly and quarterly basis basis.
UShort
by Killy_Mel