UAA Ascending Triangle?Hi All - studying the UAA 30 minute chart and it looks like an ascending triangle has been forming.
Given the fact we are in the 6th week of the 9 week (from triangle beginning to apex) ascending triangle pattern we would need to see UAA break through the resistance at around the $12 mark with some nice volume to complete the pattern.
Hate it or love it let me know your thoughts!
Underarmour
Under Armour UNDER performing- Under Armour has fallen 3.3% in premarket trading because it's reported worse than expected quarter losses. Net losses totalled $559.7 million
- It's laid off workers and borrowed new money to try and sure up its balance sheet and lower its expense base.
- Overall its been under performing the S&P 500 and we are sitting at 2011 stock prices. From a trend perspective its been trending down in the pitchfork. Short positions can possibly be initiated at the Median line or the Supply Zone above.
UA before EarningsUA likely to correct to 15 or lower post-ER.
– major formation bust since August last year, stock was not able to recover
– MACD bearish
– MAs super bearish (turned off in this chart)
– stock is now below 'Century VWAP' pre-ER (bearish)
– RSI super bearish
This post will be updated continuously when mentionable changes can be observed.
WEEKLY + ADX:
Under Armour inverse H&S at end of wave 2Under Armour seems to be finishing wave 2 and formed an inverse H&S with divergence on RSI. MPO of the pattern is just below $28 level. Break of the neckline and 200SMA would be a buy signal, best if confirmed with high volume.
This could be a great opportunity to enter before the main buyers come in. The count is valid as long as level $16 is not broken to the downside.
Overall the stock seems to be bullish, earnings will be reported on February 11th. Major hedge funds target the stock below $30.
Good Luck!
sold puts on Under Armour premium more than doubled SOLD 10 PUTS AT 0,75 $ STRIKE 21 MATURITY 09/08
VOLATILITY ROCKETED AFTER EARNINGS BECAUSE THEY MISSED US targets but the overall results are beating estimates and the story is still very good
Happy to get the stock And sell calls
don't think the stock will collapse below 20 $ , no reason for it
Under Armour: Great brand, huge long term bullish trend...I think $UA is acting very strong here, it managed to shake me out of a long position at break even 2 months ago, but after July's surge, a long term Time@Mode trend signal kicked in. Upside in the stock is tremendous, adventurous traders could follow this monthly trend going long around here, or lower, with a rather tight stop @ 20.23. A larger wiggle room would be better for more conservative traders (and thus smaller size, with up to 2% risk if stopped out), setting stops under 18.92.
The trend will remain valid for the next 12 months, after which it might start a large scale consolidation or correction. There's a chance it builds a new trend signal over time and just move higher and higher for a long time (think $AMZN, as pointed out by @timwest in the Key Hidden Levels chatroom today...buying it at $10 a share, when it was cash flow positive ended up being an insanely good long term investment...).
Best of luck if buying into it here, whatever your risk profile is.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
UA Wedge BreakoutI've been following Under Armour for a while now. I don't like this stock long, but on a swing trade this might be a good play here based off how the stock breaks out of this wedge pattern. If it break above $14.50, I'd keep it with a target of about $16.20. Obviously, if the stock breaks out to the downside, I'd stay away.
UA holding solid above .236 LONG term fib level.I like UA as a product, obviously some poor quarterly reports have pushed it WAY down. Good news is we've now had daily closes above .236 on LONNNNNG term fibs and on daily we're seeing upwards momentum. I love the product and I think most people agree the brand isn't going away any time soon!
If it has a daily open and close under $13, I'd close it. That said solid risk vs reward return.
..... Also, I'll be honest. This is primarily so my account doesn't say crypto 100% hahaha. That said, invest in crypto it moves quicker. Who wants to look at a weekly chart ffs ....
Is Under Armour a buy at (21.50)?Under Armor missed their revenue target after 26 consecutive quarters of at least 20% revenue growth.
Since trading above $52.50 in 2015, their shares have fallen 60%, now trading under $22.00.
This article from spring of last year sums up the "athletic wear" market pretty well.
For me, I think this stock needs some time to settle down.
The article speaks about saturation in the athletic wear market. At first Nike, Under Armour, and few others dominated the space. Soon though, other brands entered and stores started to private label their own lines. Prices have came down.
So, is this just a cycle that needs some time weed out the weak hands? Probably.
Most of the fundamental news I read is negative on this stock and clothing in general. Contrarian play? Maybe
This company is currently worth 8.7 billion. Is that a reasonable valuation based on what we know? Possibly.
Here is my thinking:
Warren Buffet in his 1991 annual letter spoke about the d/f between an "economic franchise" and a "business".
He stated and economic franchise arises from a product or service that (1) is needed or desired; (2) is thought by it's customers to have no close substitutes; (3) is not subject to price regulation.
In contrast a "business" earns exceptional profits only if it is the low cost operator or if supply of its product or service is tight. He noted the later usually does not last and being the low cost operator can work if superior management is at the helm.
So when we apply the "economic franchise" test to Under Armour what do we get using reasonable assumptions.
(1) I believe their product is needed and desired.
(2) I think some customers are loyal, but at scale I am not sure if that is true?
(3) They cannot price their product aggressively. See the linked article. Competition has forced prices lower.
To wrap up: I believe they have a strong enough brand that their products will be needed and desired in the future. Unlike some companies that entered the "athleisure" category, I believe it is likely they will survive a washout, if one comes.
Is 8.7 billion a fair price to pay? This where investing is so fun. There is a range of outcomes over the long term, from going to zero(0% probability IMO) to being worth 100 billion(very low probability IMO) and a range of everything in between.
I just ask this, is it a reasonable probability that this company will be worth more than 8.7 billion in 3,5, or 10 years. Yes, I think that is reasonable. Do you?