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Bitcoin: BTCUSD Retest of lows underwayBitcoin Update Spent most of yesterday buying dips from around 14050 and higher, looking to increase on a break of the neckline of what has turned out to be an imaginary reverse head and shoulders - and again on the break above another imaginary flag formation which was then sitting at 15500 with a stop at least 100 points below the line. So we blew 150 or so points off the top but at least managed to trap in bigger profits accumulated during the rest of a turgid, slow day of trading. Not very good, but it could've been worse. The pattern Bitcoin has made overnight has done nothing to improve the picture. The last comments had warned that Bitcoin only turns bearish again on a break below 14465. Overnight it broke this level, fell through the next blue line of support to the next line at 13571, bounced back to test the 14465 level from the underside, turning it into resistance as it did so and is now falling away again...every move it's made overnight has been bearish. If you were around to short on the fall below 14465, lucky you Now it's coming back to test the right hand 'shoulder' at 13560-13450 - Bitcoin must hold here - as this is the last real chance of support holding up and preventing another retest of the lows. Therefore, should it fail to hold at any point today look to short on a break below 13450, looking for 12600 to begin with and then after a potential bounce from here, look to short again from 13088 looking for a retest of the lows. to retest the lows which must hold at all costs today. Failure to do so will tip Bitcoin further into terrible technical trouble and likely force price all the way back to 10486 to begin with and then to 8324. It's beaking down now as this is written up... Suggest closing out ALL longs on any Alt asap - we can buy back cheaper later.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
11
Bitcoin:BTCUST Bulls have won out - retest of 7730 on wayBitcoin: BTCUSD Bulls have won the battle for high ground above 6950. look to Buy dips from here to the highs Well we should have booked about 200-240 profit on long from 7000 as Bitcoin spent 19 minutes dancing either side the little dynamic, a mercifully short battle before bulls won the day, triggering the long with stops 50 under the line which were never hit this time. So sorry for raising that stop too high on the original longs from pivot area at 6450-6470 in a vain effort to protect newer readers from whipsaw risk - just got too cautious, too overprotective. My bad, not chart's. And to add insult to injury, now we've been stopped out of what was, technically, a sensible trade: the short from 6950, losing 50 points before spreads. The fact that bulls have won 6950 is very significant. Bitcoin was expected to encounter a real problem at 6940-6950 and start to come off by at least 250 points which we were looking to bag...it did come off from 6963, but only 150 points or so before rallying again. The fact is that 6950 should have stopped Bitcoin dead in its tracks...but people who weren't interested in buying at 5750 are now interested at 6950 - once 6950 is taken back by the bulls the chart will be telling us that the Bulls have won the war - not just a big battle, but the war to occupy the high ground above 6950 again. That will mean there's no point in trying to fight this any longer. At that point, if we see it develop, we have to switch back to buying dips - that's a pennant formation that's been hammered out since Sunday with an upside target at 7730 - it's likely to push higher still in near term to 7077, and potentially to the next line of resistance at 7137 but unless day-trading we need to look to buy on the next decline...this is now 'hot' again after being so 'cold' just a few days ago. Such is Bitcoin. Do not expect it to come back far when the next decline sets in, to 6990-6940 range at absolute lowest now and more likely only to touch the lower parallel of the impulse wave shown on the chart - 7077 could be as low as it goes, so strong is this wave, so look to get long and manage your risk. Long story short, this has 600-700 points upside to 7730 minimum and about 250 max likely downside to 6950 - so you can go long here and not wait around but the stop has to be under 6860 for now to stay away from whipsaw, or wait and hope we get a decine to the lower parallel or even a retest of 6950. That would be the ideal, but we are not likely to see it. Traders choice, down to appetetite for risk. A test of the lower parallel is probably all we are going to see and maybe not even that...even now it's close to a 3 to 1 return on risk , even with stops under 6950. Trader's choice, dependent on risk profile. Be lucky. And if day trading keep buying dips back up to the highs/minimum upside target at 7730.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon