Get started

Unemployment

Massive US Unemployment Move Inbound On the FRED:UNRATE dataset, we can see that since 1953, every time the unemployment rate make a significant move above the 24 months SMA, with the sole exception of October '67, we saw a large spike in unemployment allong with a recession. Currently, FRED:UNRATE rose above the 24 months SMA in August 2023 and has been stochastically moving higher ever since. Historically, this means that we can expect an aggressive move in unemployment in the following months.
FRED:UNRATE
by zkdev
EUR/USD steady after eurozone inflation dipsThe euro is calm on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0818, up 0.13%. Inflation continues its downward trend in the eurozone. On Thursday, Germany and France saw inflation fall in February. The eurozone followed suit on Friday, as headline inflation dropped to 2.6% y/y in February, down from 2.8% in January. This was the lowest rate in three months but was above the market estimate of 2.5%. A sharp drop in energy prices was the main reason for the drop in inflation. However, February inflation rose 0.6% m/m, higher than expected and above the January reading of -0.4%. This upswing was mainly due to services inflation which remains sticky and this will be a concern for the European Central Bank. The core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy, fell to 3.1% in February, down from 3.3% in January but higher than the market estimate of 2.9%. The slight decline in inflation is welcome news but is unlikely to have much sway on policy makers at the ECB, as the drop was mainly due to base effects. The ECB remains concerned about cutting rates too early and then having to deal with inflation reversing directions and accelerating. The next meeting is on March 7th and the central bank is expected to maintain the deposit rate at 4.0%. Overshadowed by the inflation release was the eurozone unemployment rate, which ticked lower to 6.4% in January, down from a revised 6.5% in December and matching the market estimate. This was the lowest level since the formation of the eurozone in 1999. (The initial December release came in at 6.4% but was revised upwards to 6.5%.) The impressive unemployment rate points to a robust labour market, which is surprising given that the economy has been in poor shape. The solid labour market and high wage growth means there is less pressure on the ECB to lower interest rates. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0819. Above, there is resistance at 1.0842 1.0782 and 1.0759 are providing support
by OANDA
FOMC FORWARD GUIDANCE SINCE 2018 w/SPXThe chart provided visually represents the forward guidance issued by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) alongside the performance of various key economic indicators and market indices. The FOMC forward guidance serves as a crucial tool for signaling the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and future intentions, thereby influencing market expectations and economic behavior. By examining the interplay between FOMC forward guidance and these key economic indicators, investors, policymakers, and analysts can gain insights into the likely direction of monetary policy and its potential impact on financial markets and the broader economy.
SP:SPX
by koyking
RECESSION PROABILITY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES JAN - JUN 202410Y/2Y Yield Spread & Unemployment Rate Originally shared back in July 2023 (see below charts) Its interesting to see that the yield curve is rising fast (up towards the 0 level) We are reaching into dangerous recessionary territory. No guarantees, just a significantly increased probability. Continuous jobless claims are reaching pre-recession warning levels in both time and volume. Meaning more and more people are becoming unemployed and remaining unemployed for longer. More info in links below. The average interest rate pause timeframe is closing in fast at June 2024 also(Contained in Charts below also). Its time to pay very close attention. The initial 6 months of this year Stay safe out there PUKA
FRED:T10Y2Y
by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 9~ Initial Jobless Claims MACRO MONDAY 9 Initial Jobless Claims Historical Analysis and Important upcoming levels Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. "Initial claims" refers to the government report on the number of workers applying for unemployment benefits for the first time following job loss First-time jobless claims can be a useful leading indicator because elevated numbers tend to lead to further economic weakness, and to decline ahead of a recovery Initial claims show the recent layoffs trend and does not a full picture of the labor market however it can provide more frequent data points indicating the trend in layoffs based on the recent decisions of U.S. employers. The layoffs trend can be particularly telling at economic turning points. With that in mind lets look at the chart and its historic patterns. The Chart The chart looks complicated but is incredibly simple and can be summarised as follows. - Recessions are in red - Increases to Initial Jobless Claims prior to recessions are in blue - It is clear that prior to recessions Jobless Claims typically increase but for how long and by what amount? - The min/max increase in claims prior to recession is between 35k - 127k - The min/max timeframe of increasing claims prior to recession is 7 - 23 months - The average of the above is a 71k claims increase over a 14 month period. - At present we are below that average at 49k increase over 11 months @ 230,000 claims. - I have set out levels on the chart for us to monitor going forward in line with the min and max claims amounts and timelines as above. We can monitor these levels on trading view going forward just by pressing play and seeing if we are nearing or hitting the indicative levels. - Once we reach the average increase amount at 252k or the average timeline of 14 months in Nov 2023, we are entering into higher risk recession territory. Currently, the max increase in claims prior to recession is projected to be at the level of 308,000 (based on historic claims) and the max timeframe is out to Aug 2024 (based on historic timeframes) thus indicating that between Nov 2023 and Aug 2024, subject to continued increasing initial claims (above the average level of 252,000) it is probable that there will be a recession within this time window (Not guaranteed). If initial claims fall below their recent low of 200,000 I believe this might invalidate the possibility of a recession or at least have a significant lagging effect on time horizon. At present this outcome seems unlikely but anything is possible and we can monitor this on an ongoing basis. The current yield curve inversion on the 2/10 year Treasury Spread provided advance warning of recession/capitulation prior to all of the above recessions however it provided us a wide 6 - 22 month window of time from the time the yield curve made its first definitive turn back up to the 0% level (See Macro Monday 2). September will be the 6th month of that 6 – 22 month window and thus we are closing in on dangerous territory very fast. From reviewing initial jobless claims we can see how from Nov 2023 we are stepping into a higher risk zone on this chart also (subject to continued higher increases in claims). Should we have claims higher than the average of 252,000 we will be confirming another step towards a higher risk of a recession. Factoring in yield curve inversion and the initial jobless claims we could consider the months of Sept-Oct 2023 as Risk level 1 (yield curve inversion time window opens) and Nov-Dec 2023 as stepping into a higher Risk Level 2 (Jobless claims average timeframe hit). Should the yield curve continue to move up towards being un-inverted and should Jobless Claims increase then Jan 2024 forward could be considered a higher Risk level 3. Adding to the above concerns is that M2 Money supply is still reducing (Macro Monday 8) and Global Net Liquidity is continuing to reduce (Macro Monday 4) as the S&P 500 is hitting a major resistance zone when accounting for M2 money supply (Macro Monday 8). At present it is clear that liquidity is reducing both globally and in the US. Currently fiscal stimulus appears to be filling the gaps and may be causing additional lagging effects to the changes we have seen imposed by Federal Reserve (balance sheet reduction and increased interest rates). Keep in mind that the Fed is also targeting higher unemployment to help quell the effects of inflation thus adding to the relevance of the Initial Jobless Claims numbers. Continued jobless claims are another metric that is not covered here today. Continued Jobless Claims accounts for the continuation of claims over a time period, thus indicating that those workers who made the first “Initial claims” have remained unemployed thereafter and have not managed to get new work. We might cover this in a future Macro Monday. Let me know if you want it sooner than later? We need all the help we can find in managing risk going forward and I hope all these charts can help you with that. We can monitor all these charts on my trading view just by pressing play and seeing where things are going. Regardless ill be providing updates along the way. Be safe out there PUKA
ECONOMICS:USIJC
by PukaCharts
37
Again macro conditions don't foretell a crash soonIn May and August I made posts saying "Macro conditions don't foretell a market crash soon." Time has passed and it's all pretty much the same. BUT!! Current world events might change everything. And see my other posts re likely imminent drops in the market. This post is just about macro. Once again, some points here looking back to 2001. (2020 was an irregular event). Sorry for all the colors here, but everything is connected. 1. The Fed Rate (FEDFUNDS dark purple) falls before unemployment rises and recession. Note that the market rose while the interest rate was at its peak in 2006-2007 and 2019. So a further interest rate rise in November shouldn't be a worry, not that it seems likely today looking at the CME Fedwatch Tool www.cmegroup.com 2. There are still more job openings than people to fill them (JTSJOL Non-Farm Job Openings minus USCJC US Continuing Jobless Claims - dark blue). Still unchanged since May. 3. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE dark gray) rises before SPX (yellow) drops. Currently UNRATE is up to 3.8% and unchanged August-September. Relatively static and close to multi-year lows. 4. Note that since May: * Initial Jobless Claims (USIJC light blue at the bottom) have dropped * Continuing Jobless Claims (USCJC light gray) are unchanged * Non-farm Payrolls (USNFP green) are unchanged * Job openings (JTSJOL light purple) fell slightly and rose back to the May level. At over 9m there are more available jobs that any time pre-COVID. * The number of Employed Persons (USEMP light pink) is rising continuously and is now at 161.5m - almost 3m more that pre-COVID. There's your economic growth. 5. After a year in decline, M2 Money Supply rose during the summer but might now be falling - a negative indicator? 6. The SPX drop last year was a result of inflation -> rate rises -> fear. But the recession didn't happen and the economy still looks strong Conclusion is that macro conditions still don't foretell a market crash in the immediate future. NOT TRADING ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
FRED:JTSJOL
by lavoriamo
The Cash BubbleHistory repeats itself, and we should learn from it, however sometimes history is so far away that it spans generations before we're able to grasp the experience first hand. We hear about 1929, but we can't imagine what it was to survive the struggle, we hear about the pandemics during the 20's, same deal, we have heard about recessions, and those who went through the big recession of 2008 triggered by the immobiliary crisis know better, some veterans from the dot com bubble, others from the Black monday in 87, and probably very few from earlier crisis. But I don't think anybody has gone through a halt in the economy due to a pandemic at the level we witnessed in 2020. Let's put it in context, 2020 was an election year, the incumbent government was losing the battle against the pandemic and the halt in the economy. He had the support of the congress and the wallet at his will, the former President Trump flooded the market with freshly printed dollars in an attempt to reignite the economy as soon as possible, and let's say, it worked for the purpose of reactivating the economy and not having to wait for a painful period of a lengthy recovery, however this created an unprecedented scenario, a huge flood of dollars to the market. The biggest cash inflow ever in the history of the world. The M1 metric went to $7.2T, to put it in perspective, since the 60's this has been oscillating in the $480B to $580B in the 70's when Nixon cancelled the convertibility of the Gold and Paul Volcker had to apply unprecedented meassures to fight the stagflation that followed after the dollar became fiat currency. The M1 increased 120% from its 60's level, the increase after the housing bubble burst went from $668B to $1.5T, approximately 225%. After the COVID halt it went from $1.5T to $7.25 T, an increase of 485%, inedit scenario in the history of the United States. The crisis sent the price of oil in the market of futures to a negative value, something that has never been seen, the unemployment reached record levels, the SP500 index fell to a range close to that when Trump became president, wiping off the rally that started shortly after that event, the inflation didn't react immediately, since this is a lagging indicator that reacts to the economy growth, and the access to currency. The amount of printed fiat currency flooding the market created the immediate wanted effect, the economy jumpstart that put everybody to work and reignited the economic machinery, the unemployment started to go down, the inflation ticked up, still within range, the price of gold ticked up, the price of oil started to recover, also within range. However we witnessed shortly after that the inflation was not stabilizing, we witnessed the traffic jam at the ports of entry to the United States, lines and lines of cargo ships waiting to unload at the ports of entry, stuck there just idling. The news blamed the Evergreen ship that blocked the Suez Canal, and affected the distribution lines, but the truth was an excessive demand of products from the Pacific producers that overwhelmed the existing port infrastructure. This was the root reason that affected the production lines in the US and contributed to a galloping inflation. Also, during the recovery cycle, let's remember that one commodity in high demand is oil, since the world moves on it. We saw unprecedented gas prices at the pump. Presidents don't have the power to increase or decrease the prices of gas, that is pure supply/demand, but they can be blamed for increases or take the credit for decreases. In a high demand environment, oil goes along the demand cycle, that is why in a recovery environment the oil prices go higher. Let's remember in the 70's during the stagflation period oil was a highly valued commodity and people were making large lines to load gas. The prices were upticking fast and the media blamed the arab world for it, but it was mere propaganda, what really happened it was just an economy running freely on cash and jacking up the prices. The Trump administration was at the peak of the economic cycle that started in 2009, with low inflation, full employment, low gas prices. After the pandemic the variables changed, the economy went to a sudden halt world wide, and in a desperate attempt to keep the presidency the administration authorized the humongous cash flow in an attempt to prevent the negative effects of the economy to affect the election. At the end Trump lost the election. The economy continued its extremely fast paced recovery path and it overshoot. The Fed chairman was purposely in "Denial" regarding inflation, neglecting it and calling it "transitory", which was more of a Greenspan "laissez faire" economic policy, let the wild animals in their "irrational exuberance" take over and later on we'll pick up the pieces and start the recovery process. This is how we got here now. Where do we go from here?, that is an interesting question, the flood of cash should have been made in a way that there was a recovery but not a rampant inflation, however this would have taken longer and the previous administration was not willing to wait. We have an amount of cash that the economy hasn't been able to absorb. Money is supported basically by the productivity, the working force, the commercial transactions, but there must be a correspondence so the economic variables are kept in check. The GDP vs the M1 is still at an outstanding level. The inflation is heading to the 2-2.5% goal, we're still at full employment, which basically puts us in what the fed have been calling a "soft landing". Will it be?? I suppose initially it will, but we risk facing the same scenario that happened during the stagflation in the 70's, Paul Volcker had a big dilemma, he increased the interest rates, but the inflation was completely out of control, people noticed they could buy an asset and basically turn around and sell it at a higher price, and they still found a buyer. Houses were on the rise, the agriculture also participated of the inflation benefits, farmers could buy a tractor, use it and resell it at a higher price. People in New York City were waiting in line before the jewelries opened so they could buy gold, and sell it later at a higher price. When Volcker decreased the interest rates after the message he sent was of stability and it backfired and inflation was reignited. Taking a look at the CBOE:SPX in the long run, we see there is a negative momentum divergence forming after it reached the All Time High (ATH). The indicators signal a downturn, that could possibly happen after the interest rates reach its pivot, the inflation is at the Fed Goals, unemployment goes beyond the full employment level and the economy shows signs of stalling. Bubbles happen all the time, we enjoy the ride until they burst. We're in a new bubble, the Cash Bubble. The cash should be enough to allow the economy to support it having a healthy inflation level of 2%, as defined by the Fed targets. If there is too much cash and the economy is not able to support it, it will dilute automatically until the economy growth catches up. For decades the ratio of M1 to GDP has been between 9% and 18% as we can see in the chart. After the cash flood it peaked to 85% and currently it is at 68%. I don't think the problem is far from over, even if we reach the 2% inflation target. The challenge for the Fed now is to keep the interest rates low for longer without stalling the economy. It is rumored that the Fed will pause the interest rate hike for their September FOMC meeting. It is expected considering the recent increases have been in the 1/4 of a point followed by a pause. If the pause is prolonged, the inflation reaches its 2-2.5% target and the unemployment is kept within the 4-5% range then the fed can call it a "Soft Landing" up to this point which could be a telegraphed signal to start reducing the interest rates, and the financial market may anticipate this pivot to create a bear market and shake the tree to dislocate and reallocate assets at a discount using all the big cash flood out there. Next year is a presidential election year, and not making it a priority has happened before. During the Volcker's period, he didn't mind pulling the rug on Carter. The Fed does what it has to do. "What has happened before will happen again. What has been done before will be done again. There is nothing new in the whole world." ~ Ecclesiastes 1:9 Patterns repeat because human nature hasn't changed for thousands of years. ~ Jesse Livermore. References Secrets of the Temple: How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country. William Greider. January, 1989 How the economic machinery works. by Ray Dalio. youtu.be Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio. youtu.be
SP:SPX
by Madrid
55
New Zealand dollar sinks after soft jobs reportThe New Zealand dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6093, down 0.91%. Earlier, NZD/USD touched a low of 0.6091, its lowest level since June 30th. The New Zealand labour market has been tight, despite aggressive tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Wednesday's employment report for the second quarter showed some softening, which has extended the New Zealand dollar's losses. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%, up from 3.4% in the first quarter and above the consensus estimate of 3.5%. Wage growth eased to 4.3%, below the 4.5% reading in Q1 and the estimate of 4.4%. These numbers point to a weaker labour market, but Employment Change rose 1.0%, up from 0.8% in Q1 and above the estimate of 0.5%. The mixed numbers show that the labour market may have lost a step but still remains strong enough to bear further rate hikes from the RBNZ. In July, the central bank maintained the cash rate at 5.50% and meets next on August 16th. China released July PMIs this week, and the soft readings are weighing on the New Zealand dollar. China is New Zealand's largest trading partner and the New Zealand dollar is sensitive to Chinese economic releases. We'll get a look at the Caixin Services PMI on Thursday. The consensus estimate stands at 52.5, following a June reading of 53.9. A reading above 50.0 points to expansion. In the US, the ADP Employment report kicked off a host of job releases, highlighted by nonfarm payrolls on Friday. ADP impressed with a gain of 327,000 for July, below the June reading of 455,000 but blowing past the consensus estimate of 189,000. A month ago, ADP came in at 497,000, fuelling speculation that nonfarm payrolls might follow suit with a strong release. In the end, nonfarm payrolls fell significantly, as expected. Will the NFP follow ADP's lead and crush the estimate? NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6093. Below, there is support at 0.6031 0.6184 and 0.6246 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
EURJPY in Focus: ECB Hikes and the BoJ’s Yield Curve ControlChristine Lagarde's remarks about an open-minded ECB, coupled with a robust labor market and persistently high inflation in the eurozone, continue to provide the ECB with reasons to lean towards hiking. While headline inflation may be trending downwards, core inflation remains steadfast in the eurozone. Following the meeting on July 27, the ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points, elevating the key interest rate to 4.25%—its highest level since 2008. Interestingly, the U.S. seems to be leading the way in this regard. Inflation and core inflation peaked earlier in the US, and the Federal Reserve has been raising rates more rapidly than the ECB. Given that the EU's inflation rates remain higher than those in the US and that the unemployment rate in the EU is still low, further hikes by the ECB appear plausible—especially considering that the U.S. continues to hike, albeit at a more advanced stage. Last week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) garnered attention by widening its yield curve control band, signaling a move towards policy normalization. Yet, markets remain skeptical. The subsequent whipsaw move placed the USDJPY pair at levels higher than those before the announcement. The yield differential between the EUR and JPY interest rates exhibits a positive relationship, with the EURJPY appreciating as the yield gap widens. With the previous yield differential increase resulting in a 21% rise in the EURJPY, the currency pair's current 14% ascent seems to have room to grow further, particularly given the larger yield difference compared to past instances. However, it's worth noting the 1999 – 2000 period, where the yield differential increased, but market reactions lagged significantly. From a technical perspective, we observe the EURJPY breaking out of a 30-year symmetrical triangle, often interpreted as a bullish continuation signal. Upon closer examination, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the market is not yet oversold, and the moving average cross still favours upward trajectory. In conclusion, the ECB's potential inclination towards continued hikes, combined with market skepticism over the BOJ's recent moves, could lead to a stronger EUR and a softer JPY. A suitable strategy to capitalize on this view might be to take a long position in CME EURO/JAPANESE YEN Futures, quoted as Japanese Yen per Euro Increment. Entering at the current level of 156 with a stop at 152.5, and a take profit at 168, would provide a reasonable risk-reward ratio. It's worth noting that each 0.01 Japanese yen per Euro increment move equals 1250 yen. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
Long
by inspirante
UNRATE Update | December 2021 - PresentThe US unemployment rate can double from here and still be within the long-term range and still below the extremes that have occurred during more recent recessions. Also worth point out that the only time we have been below this level of unemployment (higher employment) was during the Korean war in the early 1950s. Sure, we could see the rate of employment increase - that can happen. But it's unlikely, based on 75 years of data that spans everything from Post-Keynesianism, to Real Business Cycle (RBC), to Monetarism, to MMT. As such, it is safe to conclude that a lower UE rate, from "here", is unlikely. So unemployment has probably bottomed, stocks are yet to recover their December 2021 highs (19 months) and the interest rate on the US10Y is up roughly 200% (having gone as high as + 215%) over the same 19-month period and currently offering a yield of 4.049%; the US10Y maintains it's lag of the US02Y, which is currently offering a yield of 4.95%. In other words, bank lending is more constrained... Wow, even the banks are telling us there is significant risk in the market. Meanwhile a lot of folks are running around telling you how great fake-money crypto supposedly is. Maybe the banks are right about risk.... Oh! one more thing: the VIX has also reached a bottom of sorts.
FRED:UNRATEShort
by ChiefMacro
Canadian dollar on a roll ahead of US and Canada job reportsThe Canadian dollar is drifting in the European session, trading at 1.3378. It has been a good week for the Canadian currency, which is up about 1% against its US cousin. We can expect some significant movement from USD/CAD in the North American session, as both Canada and the US release the June employment reports. The US labour market has been surprisingly resilient in the wake of relentless tightening by the Fed. After 500 basis points of hikes, the labour market remains strong and has been a driver of inflation, interfering with the Fed's efforts to curb inflation. The ADP employment report usually doesn't get much attention, as it is not considered a reliable precursor to nonfarm payrolls, which follows a day or two after the ADP release. The June ADP reading was an exception, as the massive upturn couldn't be ignored. ADP showed a gain of some 497,000 new jobs, crushing the consensus estimate of 267,000 and the May reading of 228,000. The nonfarm payrolls report is expected to ease to 225,000 in June, down from 339,000 in May, but investors are nervous that nonfarm payrolls could follow the ADP release and head higher. If nonfarm payrolls defies the consensus estimate and climbs higher, the US dollar should respond with gains. The Fed, which is very much hoping that the labour market weakens, would be forced to consider more tightening than it had anticipated. The money markets are widely expecting a rate hike on July 27th but have priced in a September pause at 67%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. If nonfarm payrolls jump higher, all bets are off and I would expect the probability of a September pause to fall. Canada releases the June report later on Friday, which is usually overshadowed by US nonfarm payrolls. As in the US, the Canadian labour market has been strong - the economy added jobs for nine consecutive months until the May report. Canada is expected to add 20,000 new jobs in June, while the unemployment rate is projected to inch higher to 5.3% in June, up from 5.2% in May. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3318. Next, there is resistance at 1.3386 1.3217 and 1.3149 are providing support
by OANDA
Daily Market Analysis - THURSDAY JULY 06, 2023Key News: USA - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) USA - Initial Jobless Claims USA - Services PMI (Jun) USA - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) USA - JOLTs Job Openings (May) USA - Crude Oil Inventories During Wednesday's trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average concluded the day with a decline, driven by the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes for June. The minutes indicated a growing interest among policymakers in resuming interest rate hikes. However, in the tech sector, major players showcased mostly positive performance. Notably, Meta (formerly known as Facebook) soared to a 52-week high as anticipation mounted for its upcoming Twitter competitor. Specifically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded a decrease of 0.38%, translating to a decline of 129 points. Similarly, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 experienced a modest 0.2% decrease during the trading session. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index daily chart The release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes from June, which occurred on Wednesday, shed light on the members' sentiment regarding future rate hikes. The minutes revealed that a significant majority of the members, described as "almost all," expressed support for the notion of resuming rate hikes. This position was motivated by concerns about persistently high inflation levels, which were deemed "unacceptably high." Furthermore, the minutes indicated a hawkish stance among some members, with a preference for raising rates rather than pausing during the June meeting. These members highlighted their worries about a tight labor market, recognizing that such conditions could potentially drive up wages and inflation even further. However, while the discussion expressed a general inclination towards resuming rate hikes, the decision to implement such actions in July will largely depend on upcoming data. Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests that the forthcoming data expected to be released this week and next will play a crucial role in shaping the Fed's decision-making process. It is worth noting that approximately 90% of traders, as indicated by the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, anticipate that the Federal Reserve will indeed resume rate hikes in July. Effective Fed Funds Rate Investor concerns regarding a potential global economic slowdown were heightened due to underwhelming services data from China. However, the impact of these concerns on the broader market was somewhat mitigated by the strong performance of prominent technology companies. Notably, Meta (previously known as Facebook) experienced a significant surge of over 3%, reaching 52-week highs. This impressive performance came ahead of the launch of Meta's rival Twitter app, Threads, scheduled for Thursday. It is noteworthy that Twitter had recently announced its decision to temporarily restrict the number of posts users can read on its platform. Meta Platforms stocks daily chart Despite Apple's 0.6% decline, the company's market capitalization remains above $3 trillion, demonstrating its significant value in the market. In contrast, Microsoft experienced a slight increase in its stock price. Wedbush, a prominent research firm, predicts that Microsoft will also join the exclusive $3 trillion club alongside Apple by early 2024. This projection is based on the belief that advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) will be a major driver of Microsoft's growth and valuation. Wedbush noted in a statement on Wednesday that, considering the potential of AI and through a sum-of-the-parts valuation, Microsoft's overall value should propel it to the esteemed $3 trillion club within the next few years. Microsoft stock daily chart During the US Independence Day holiday, major currencies displayed a noticeable trend of trading within narrow ranges in relation to the US dollar. Among the G10 currencies, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) emerged as the top performer. This could be attributed to the unwinding of long positions in the Australian dollar/New Zealand dollar (AUD/NZD) pair, which likely contributed to the NZD's relative strength in the market. AUD/NZD daily chart Throughout this week, European markets have faced consistent declines, with yesterday's losses being notably significant. The downward trend in the markets is expected to persist today. The market weakness witnessed yesterday was primarily fueled by concerns surrounding disappointing services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from both China and Europe. These underwhelming data releases have heightened worries about a potential global economic slowdown. Furthermore, the increasing risks related to interest rates have contributed to weakness in sectors such as basic resources, energy, and financials, amplifying the overall market downturn. These negative sentiments have had a spill-over effect on Asian markets as well, reflecting the widespread concerns about the global economic landscape. Employed Usually Works Full time Chart US Employed Persons status Today's highly anticipated release of the ADP payrolls report is expected to show a robust figure of 225,000, slightly lower than the previous month's 278,000. Despite this slight decrease, it is important to note that the current level of job vacancies suggests that we are unlikely to see a weak jobs report in the upcoming months. Consequently, it is less probable that the labor market will serve as the catalyst for the Federal Reserve to signal a pause in its policies in the near future. US Purchasing Managers Index (ISM) The Federal Reserve has expressed concerns regarding the persistence of services inflation, highlighting its potential impact on the economy. Today's ISM services report is anticipated to reveal a modest uptick in headline activity, reaching around 51.3. However, special attention will be given to the prices paid component, which experienced a decline to 56.2 in May, marking a three-year low. This data will provide insights into the pricing pressures faced by service providers. As for Independence Day, please note that trading hours may be affected due to the holiday in the United States. The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment. It provides insights into the health of the labor market and is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and market participants.
by FOREXN1
15
S&P500 vs Yield Curve vs FedFunds vs Unemployment📢 Yield curve inversion alert! Here's what you need to know: 📉 The 10-year minus 2-year yield curve has inverted 📉 This occurrence, where the shorter-term yields surpass longer-term yields, often raises concerns about the economy's health. Historically, such inversions have been associated with impending economic downturns. The inversion of the yield curve is a signal that investors are expecting short-term interest rates to rise above long-term interest rates in the future. This can happen when investors are worried about the economy and are demanding higher yields on long-term bonds to compensate for the risk of a recession. The inversion of the yield curve has been followed by a decline in the S&P 500 stock index in the past. On average, the S&P 500 has fallen by 10% within a year of a yield curve inversion. However, it is important to note that the yield curve inversion is not a perfect predictor of recessions. There have been times when the yield curve has inverted, and a recession has not followed. 🔍 Let's compare past inversions: 1️⃣ 2000 .com bust: The yield curve inversion preceded the dot-com bubble burst, signaling an economic recession. The S&P 500 experienced a significant decline, eroding investor wealth. 2️⃣ 2008 financial crisis: Another yield curve inversion preceded the global financial crisis and housing market collapse. The S&P 500 plummeted, leading to a severe recession and widespread financial turmoil. 📊 How does the yield curve inversion relate to the S&P 500? In the past, yield curve inversions have often been followed by stock market declines. While it doesn't guarantee an immediate crash, it serves as a warning sign for investors and may impact market sentiment and investment strategies. 💰 Relationship to the federal funds rate and unemployment rate: A yield curve inversion can influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates. In response to an inversion, the Fed may reduce rates to stimulate the economy and prevent a recession. The Federal Reserve is closely watching the yield curve inversion and has signaled that it is committed to raising interest rates in order to combat inflation. However, the Fed may be more cautious about raising rates if the yield curve continues to invert. Additionally, unemployment rates tend to rise during economic downturns associated with yield curve inversions. The unemployment rate is an important indicator to watch. A rising unemployment rate can be a sign that the economy is slowing down. However, the unemployment rate is currently at a low level, which may give the Fed more confidence to raise interest rates. 🔮 Projections for the current yield curve inversion: While it's challenging to predict exact outcomes, historical patterns suggest caution. The current inversion may signal a potential slowdown or economic headwinds. The stock market could face increased volatility, and the Fed may consider adjusting interest rates accordingly. Monitoring unemployment rates becomes crucial as they may rise if economic conditions deteriorate. Overall, the yield curve inversion is a sign that investors are worried about the economy. However, it is too early to say whether a recession is imminent. Investors should continue to monitor the yield curve and other economic indicators for signs of a slowdown. ⚠️ Stay informed, diversify investments, and consult financial professionals for personalized advice during uncertain times.
SP:SPX
by PrepForProfit
$EUR50 - Recession - Eurozone OANDA:EU50EUR is officially in Recession due to two consecutive negative quarters in a row. The Euro-Zone entered a Recession in the first quarter of this year and economists are not optimistic for the coming months. Having said that, its Index OANDA:EU50EUR continues to hold its head up high, but the question is, how much longer will it maintain to do so ? Will the situation get better for Europe or domino effect has just gotten started ? TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
OANDA:EU50EUR
by Mr_J__fx
GBP/USD calm after mixed UK jobs report, US retail salesAfter three straight days of sharp movement, the pound has settled down on Tuesday and is slightly lower, trading at 1.2496. Is the UK labour market showing signs of strain? Today's employment numbers are pointing in that direction. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, up from 3.8% which was also the estimate. Unemployment claims rose by 46,700, up from 26,500 and crushing the estimate of -10,800. At the same time, wage growth remains strong. Average Earnings excluding bonuses accelerated to 6.7%, up from 6.6% but shy of the 6.8% estimate. The uptick in wage growth will no doubt concern the Bank of England since it complicates its battle to curb inflation, which is galloping at a 10.1% clip. If the BoE can get a handle on sizzling inflation and if the labour market continues to cool down, that should translate into lower wage growth. The British pound is slightly lower on expectations that the BoE may pause its tightening shortly - the markets have priced in just one more rate increase this year. Federal Reserve members continue to send out a hawkish message to the markets, even though the Fed is expected to pause rates at the June meeting. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin had a hawkish message for the markets on Monday, saying he saw "no barrier" if high inflation persisted. Barkin said that demand was easing but not fast enough for inflation to fall to the 2% target. As for the job market, Barkin said it had moved from "red hot to hot" and there were some signs of the labour market easing. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic poured cold water on rate cuts this year and warned that rates could go up, given the persistence of inflation pressures. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2524. The next support line is 1.2369 1.2604 and 1.2676 are the next resistance levels
by OANDA
Yield curve predicting Recession very soon.TVC:US10Y -US02Y Looks like we are nearing the recession, it can take from 6 months to 12 months to occur, but for sure. Recession signals: 1. Unemployment starts to raise. 2. Yield curve is above 0. 3. FEDRATES starts to stay firm and fed starts to cut the rates.(May be consequences) Only few tech stocks are holding the market up, once they start correcting, we will see drawdown of almost all stocks. Be prepared to take this golden opportunity to make fortune or atleast protect your assets. Bear market or recessions are the best time for investment and long term growth as you get base prices and can make money by selling low risk calls. Hold your bulls and unleash when the time is almost right.
TVC:US10Y
by MarathonToMoon
1
Market Analysis: The Coming RecessionIn this post, I will present a market analysis with a focus on recession metrics and indicators. Right now, many of them are sending a recession warning. Home Prices - U.S. home prices are surging higher at the fastest quarterly rate of change on record. (See chart below) This extreme rate of change in home prices is occurring as U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rates also explode higher at nearly the fastest quarterly rate of change on record. (See chart below) Additionally, we see in the chart below that 30-year fixed mortgage rates have potentially broken out into a new uptrend on the longer timeframes. The best way to detect trend reversals is by using the Ichimoku Cloud. When the price closes above or below the cloud (the shaded area) it is considered to have "pierced" the cloud. Once the cloud is pierced to the upside, resistance becomes support. In this case, assuming the piercing sustains, we can see a sustained period of higher interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages. Exploding home prices and exploding mortgage rates occurring simultaneously is unsustainable. Examine the yearly chart of U.S. home prices below and notice the similarities between 2005 and 2022. Notice that the Stochastic RSI is extended to the upside, and that home price extends above the upper Bollinger Band. Looking at this chart one could reasonably conclude that in the coming years home prices are likely to revert to the mean (orange line), as they did during the Great Recession. Many analysts try to contradict what this chart is suggesting by claiming that we are in much better shape now than during the sub-prime mortgage crisis prior to the Great Recession. But are we really? With spiraling inflation, every mortgage holder suddenly becomes relatively more sub-prime. We also did not see mortgage rates explode then as quickly as they are now. Unemployment - Analysts point out that the current low unemployment is a reason to believe a recession can be averted. But under the surface, that's beginning to change in a hurry. Below is a chart of most leading unemployment data published by the Federal Reserve: Seasonally Adjusted Initial Claims (Weekly). In this chart, we see that in about a period of the past 4 months, the amount of new unemployment claims has risen by around 100,000 or about a 50% increase. Compare this to the chart from the 2007-2008, when the U.S. economy was beginning to enter a recession (the shaded area represents where the recession began): In the period leading up to the Great Recession, we saw a rise of about 50,000 new unemployment claims or about a 15% increase over a similar 4-month period. Therefore, the rate of increase of initial unemployment claims (both in real numbers as a percentage) is higher now than when we entered the Great Recession. Perhaps more worrisome is the difference in how accommodative the Federal Reserve was in response to rising unemployment. Here is how the Fed Funds Rate changed as unemployment began to rise in late 2007 into 2008: As unemployment was rising, the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates. Compare this to the current situation in the below chart which shows the Federal Reserve raising interest while unemployment is rising. This change in context is reflective of both the fact that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve with containing inflation and the fact that the Federal Reserve is prioritizing the current problem (inflation) at the expense of the future problem (unemployment). We are experiencing a macroeconomic situation whereby rapidly rising initial unemployment claims are being paired with rapidly rising interest rates. This combination is unlikely to end with any other outcome than a recession. For more details on unemployment data see here: www.dol.gov To interact with the initial unemployment claims data on a weekly basis you can go here: fred.stlouisfed.org Yield Curve Inversion - The 10-year minus the 2-year Treasury yield is used to detect an impending recession. When the 2-year yield rises above the 10-year yield that creates a yield curve inversion, which can often indicate that a recession is coming. Right now the yield curve inversion is very steep. In fact, just recently, the yield curve inversion actually steepened to a level that was even worse than what we saw before the Great Recession. Perhaps most alarming are the rates of change in interest rates. Look at the 10-year yield Rate of Change on a 3-month basis: Here's the 2-year yield rate of change: The federal reserve uses the 10-year minus the 3-month as a more reliable indicator for detecting an impending recession than the 10-year minus the 2-year. However, the rate of change for the 10-year yield has been so parabolic to the upside that the 3-month yield has been struggling to invert relative to it. However, that may soon change. Here's the 10-year minus the 3-month yield chart: Volatility - As you know, volatility is measured by the VIX. The yearly Stochastic RSI for the VIX is trending upward, signally the potential for greater volatility now and throughout the years ahead. This part is a little confusing, but try to follow if you can: Volatility of volatility is measured by the VVIX and is considered a leading indicator of the VIX. Currently, the VVIX is so suppressed to downside that the K value of the Stochastic RSI oscilator has reached zero for only the second time ever. (The first and only other time this has happened was in 2008). While this may be more coincidental than predictive, it nonetheless suggests that volatility of volatility has nowhere to go but up. See below. Margin - Margin has already unwinded both in real numbers and as a percentage by a magnitude that is consistent with, and usually only occurs during, a recession. See chart below. Credit to Yardeni Research, Inc. You can view their full report here: www.yardeni.com Stock Market - Several bellwethers in the stock market are showing that, while we may have a robust rebound from extremely oversold levels in the short term, the longer timeframes look quite bearish, especially for the interest rate-sensitive tech and growth sectors. For more details, here is my analysis on the QQQ/SPY relative performance: Tech and growth are not alone in the bearish context. Indeed, the bull run from the end of the Great Recession to the current period has been characterized by increasing prices but decreasing volume. This is generally bearish, and may reflect that quantitative easing was a large cause of the bull run. Now, quantitative easing is ending in the face of spiraling inflation. Other Metrics - There are many other metrics that are used to detect recessions (e.g. GDP, PMI, M2V). Some may even look toward shifts in demographic trends, rising geopolitical tensions, declining globalization and climate change as recessionary factors. While I cannot discuss every possible metric, one last metric worth considering is the corporate bond market. In 2020, during the COVID-19 shutdown, in order to stabilize markets, the Federal Reserve rushed in to save corporate bonds from crashing fearing that high borrowing costs for corporations could cause liquidity issues. Corporate liquidity issues can cause a whole host of issues from bankruptcies to layoffs. Currently, however, corporate bond prices have fallen to nearly that of the COVID low when the Federal Reserve rushed in to buy, yet the Federal Reserve is only just beginning quantitative tightening and just now beginning to roll bonds off its balance sheet. Finally, I will leave you with this note: The time-tested winning strategy is to continue contributing as much as possible to your retirement fund. If the stock market crashes, do not stop or lower your contributions or try to pull money out because you think the world will end. Rather, continue to contribute as much as you can afford no matter what to a retirement mutual fund with diversified holdings. Contributions during market downturns will buy you more shares of your retirement mutual fund relative to the number of shares your contributions bought prior to the market crash. When price rebounds (and it will) you would have been glad to stick to this investment strategy.
ECONOMICS:USSFHP
by SpyMasterTrades
121
2023 Crisis In my own eyes THIS IS JUST A THOUGHT OF SOMEONE WHO LOOKS AT THE MARKET FROM A BEAR POINT OF VIEW- NO ADVISE Publishing here the history of economics effect on stock market I took the last couple of crisis (bubble at 2000 and the real estate crisis on 2008) and added the bellow charts - Inflation - Interest - Unemployment Once thing is clear- each time inflation went up- The fed increased the intersect rate and unemployment went down to the lowest points of the decade or more - When unemployment reached the bottom, we were getting towards the top of the market (on 2008) or in the middle of the fall down (2001) - UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NEVER REACHED THE BOTTOM WHEN THE CRISIS WAS OVER OR DURRNING THE UPTREND ON THE ABOVE CRISIS -When Inflation rates got to the pick level - the market was either still climing or in the begining of the fall - INFLATION RATES NEVER PICKED OR STAYED HIGH FOR A LONG TIME WHILE THE MARKET BOTTOMED - THE PRIOD OF AT LEAAST 7 MONTHS WE HAD THE HIGH INTRESET RATE AT THEIR PICK - AND IT HAPPENED WHILE THE MARKETS WERE CRASHING THE SIGANL FOR THE BOTTOM USUALLY CAME WHEN THE INFALTION CAME TO IT'S LOWEST POINT - DRAMATIC MOVES OF THE INFLATION GOING DOWN - WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CRASH AND TOWARDS THE END WHEN WE HIT THE BOTTOM - Were are we now 4-2023??? In My Opinion: - We are in the beginning of the big crash, we are going to sink hard to new low level, we will visit the highest levels of the market before the CORONA (February 2020) - I really think we will have a hard recession which will take 5-7 years or more to get back to the tops of the ETFs (QQQ/ SPY etc...) We are being fouled at the moment the the bottom already happened, as nothing is shiny in the near/ far furture - AAPL IS ONLY 9% FROM IT'S ATH (MAKE SENCE??) not to me - VIX IN ITS LOWEST FOR THE PAST 1+ YEAR (USUALLY THE MARKET WILL PUT ALL TO SLEEP BEFORE THEY DROP THE KNIFES) - LAYOFF SEASON HAS BEGAN AT THE BIG COMANIES - FED DECLEARED A SOFT RECESSION (WHEN THEY SAY SOFT IT'S THE SAME AS WHEN THEY SAID TRANSITORY INFLATION - PLEASE REMEMBER !!! - INTRESET RATE?? NEXT 0.25 IS COMING IN 2 WEEKS - WHAT IS THE CATALIST FOR THE MARKET TO GO HIGH?? NOTHING (In My Opinion) THIS IS JUST A THOUGHT OF SOMEONE WHO LOOKS AT THE MARKET FROM A BEAR POINT OF VIEW- NO ADVISE
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by AstockMaster
1