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Aussie shrugs after inflation reportThe Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6950 in European trade. Australia's inflation rate accelerated in the second quarter, but the market reaction was muted, as the 6.1% gain was a notch below the estimate of 6.2%. Inflation still remains the RBA's number one problem, as CPI jumped from 5.1% in Q1. With inflation coming in a bit less than forecast, RBA hiking expectations have been pared lower, which briefly sent the Australian dollar lower. The key question of "how much, how fast" the RBA will increase rates depends not just on how high inflation is running, but on the resilience of the economy to withstand ever higher rates. The labour market remains robust, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.5% in June, down from 3.8% in May. The trade surplus jumped in May and the manufacturing sector continues to show strong expansion. At the same time, the global growth outlook is uncertain and fears of a slowdown in China are weighing on risk sentiment which could prove to be a major headwind for the Australian dollar. The minutes of the RBA July meeting stated that policymakers discussed the neutral rate (which is neither expansionary nor contractionary) and the 1.35% cash rate was "well below" that. Governor Lowe has often quoted 2.5% as around neutral, leaving little doubt that the RBA plans more hikes in the second half of the year. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve meeting later today. The markets are expecting a 75bp move, but there is an outside chance of a massive 100bp, as the Fed continues its epic battle with inflation, which accelerated to 9.1% in June, up from 8.6% in May. If, as expected, the Fed delivers a second-straight 75bp move, it will be interesting to see if the US dollar gains any ground or will the reaction be muted. This will depend on what Fed Chair Powell has to say and the tone of his remarks. There is resistance at 0.7005 and 0.7085 0.6897 is providing support, followed by 0.6817
by OANDA
Euro stems slide but still below 1.05The euro has edged higher on Thursday, after posting losses in two consecutive sessions. The markets were treated to a data dump out of the eurozone, with some mixed numbers. On the employment front, the eurozone unemployment rate fell to 6.6%, down from 6.8% (6.7% exp.). Germany reported 133 thousand newly unemployed, a huge increase, but this reading was an anomaly due to the influx of Ukrainian refugees into the labour market. German retail sales for May bounced back with a modest gain of 0.6%, after a dismal -5.4% slide in April. Investors are keenly awaiting Eurozone CPI for June, which is expected to hit 8.4%, up from 8.1% in May. With no inflation peak in sight and the ECB revising downwards its growth forecast, the spectre of stagflation in the bloc remains very real. At the ECB forum this week, Lagarde sounded hawkish and downplayed concerns about a recession, although there is good reason to be sceptical about her optimism. Inflation continues to hammer away at consumers and businesses. The energy situation with Russia continues to deteriorate and the standoff between Russia and the West is only getting worse, with Finland and Sweden applying to join NATO and the Ukraine war grinding on. In the US, there was some good news for a change on the inflation front. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price index, was unchanged at 0.3% MoM in May, a notch below the estimate of 0.4%. However, earnings dropped sharply to 0.2% in May, compared to 0.9% in April. This could be a sign of the toll the cost of living crisis is taking on US consumers. Federal Reserve Chair Powell has downplayed the likelihood of a recession in the US, but as is the case with ECB President Lagarde, many market participants are less optimistic. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0482. Above, there is resistance at 1.0544 There is support at 1.0408 and 1.0346
by OANDA
DEAD CAT BOUNCE in #Stocks & Risk on assets.We are dead cat bouncing. #Biden is attempting to reduce the price of oil via favourable taxes so companies will produce more oil. This could help CPI moderate. Supply chains remain crippled, so this dead cat rolls over on the next piece of bad news. This could come in the form of unemployment start to accelerate. In prior recessions, unemployment typically spikes going from very low to very high levels over a short period of months at which point, welcome to HYPERstagflation that make the 1970s look tame. The upshot is #Bitcoin and stocks can fall a lot lower than current levels. Using the rationale that Bitcoin has already fallen 75% so, "How much further can it fall?" can lead to huge sums lost. In 2014 and 2018, it fell -87.5% and -84%, respectively. If Bitcoin were to fall again to such levels, it would represent another -50% drop from -75% if it fell to -87.5% off peak, not just -12.5%. #math
FRED:UNRATEShort
by BallaJi
3
DOW JONES The Buy/Sell correlation with Unemployment & InflationThis is a simple yet extremely informative analysis of the Dow Jones (DJI) index on how its multi-year correlation with the Unemployment Rate (black trend-line) and the Inflation Rate (grey trend-line) provide the ultimate Entry/ Exit signals on the long-term. The blue trend-line is Dow's 1M MA50 and the green is the 1M MA100. As you see, with the sample starting in 1987, every time the Unemployment is Low while Inflation is high, the stock market peaks and starts declining. Similarly, when the Unemployment is high while Inflation is low, the stock market bottoms out and starts recovering. Notably, this correlation even stood right during the 2020 COVID crash where the shift happened extremely fast, with unemployment being low + inflation high just before the crash and right after the unemployment spiked (following the lockdowns) while inflation hit a 5 year bottom and started rising after the stimulus started kicking in. That led to the 2022 stock market correction on massive inflation but with unemployment (still) near pre-COVID lows. According to the model that was a Sell Signal on stocks and we see how it was accurate yet again. The key now is the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). During the previous three corrections (COVID 2020, Mortgage Crisis 2008, DotCom Crisis 2001), the market broke below the 1M MA50. The exception was the October 1987 crash (Black Monday), where the sharp crash reached exactly the 1M MA50 and rebounded. In the three corrections that did break below it though, the index always reached the 1M MA100 (green trend-line). So a solid long-term sell signal from now on would be if the price breaks the 1M MA50 with a target on the 1M MA100. If by that time inflation bottoms out and starts reversing while the unemployment rate is much higher, we can start considering buying stocks again on a multi-year horizon. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Editors' picks
TVC:DJI
by TradingShot
22
Real economy beating expectations yet markets trading in red 🤔INVESTMENT CONTEXT President Vladimir Putin said that Russia was not blocking Ukrainian wheat from being exported, and that the grain could be dispatched via ports controlled either by Russia or Ukraine. Before the war, Russia and Ukraine accounted for ca. 29% of international annual wheat sales U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May, beating analyst expectations (325,000) and showing resilient real economy in the face of rampant inflation and higher interest rates Crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell to 414.7 million barrels in the wake of strong demand, yet limiting chances of further releases to cool domestic energy prices Goldman Sachs COO John Waldron followed JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon saying “This is among if not the most complex, dynamic environment I’ve ever seen in my career". On a similar tone, in a leaked Tesla email, Elon Musk cited having a "super bad feeling" about the economy as the main reason for shedding 10% of the company's workforce PROFZERO'S TAKE When good news are met with S&P 500 dropping more than 1.50%, and Nasdaq doing even worse at 2.47% in the red, we know something is off. That's what happens when bears are in control, and policy makers are desperate to understand how far can they move with tightening before the backlash. A remarkably strong U.S. economy just added 390,000 jobs in May, beating analyst expectations and reassuring the Fed it could maintain the trajectory of 50bps rate hikes in July and August. ProfZero clearly welcomes Main Street's resilience and rising wages - yet, as anticipated in Step99 podcast, it cautions against the forward-looking effects of monetary policy vs. the actual state of the economy. As pointed out by The Economist, "A recession in America by 2024 looks likely" - today's strength of the real economy may at best soften its blow Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser sees "three R" whiplashing EU economy - rates, Russia and recession, this latter happening in Europe ahead of the U.S. because of "the energy side (...) really having an impact". ProfZero has made energy a key theme of this Parlay, with potentially more decisive effects on the real economy than monetary policy. With Brent testing again USD 120/boe and fading cushion inventories from the U.S., it is hard to imagine how the EU will cope with the next cold season without rationing output, hence slashing GDP growth. Regasification plants and last-generation nuclear are definitely tools of the future; but by then, are seaborne imports going to be enough? Equities are definitely off the lows witnessed in April and early May - perhaps Musk's "super bad feeling" and Mr. Dimon's "hurricane" are rather looming on the real economy? Not an inch less worrying... BTC once again confidently breaking up the mid-term triangle pattern and trying to regain 32k after trading below 30k on June 4-5 - and yet ProfZero's eyes are set on the lurking death cross on 200MA PROFONE'S TAKE After sharing about lithium and nickel, ProfOne completes the overview of rare minerals that are crucial for the production of batteries setting its eyes are on cobalt. Cobalt prices soared from USD 30k/ton in January to USD 52k in May - on top of the 2x surge in 2021 vs. 2020. According to the Cobalt Institute, in the next five years cobalt demand is expected to hit 320k/ton, up from 175k/ton in 2021. ProfOne argues that meeting such demand won’t be operatively easy. For once, cobalt is yet another highly concentrated resource: about 70% of world’s cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where production is dominated by Chinese companies and commodities trader Glencore (GLEN). Adding to it that world's second supplier of cobalt is Russia, the metals puzzle turns out to be a fairly intricate one
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
NZDUSD; Forex recap and the week aheadWhile NZDUSD continued its bearishness last week, it showed a strong move up on Wednesday to produce a Thursday high. However, it sold off very quickly as it continued its drop during Thursday's London and New York sessions. The pair mostly consolidated on Monday and Tuesday. NZ Unemployment Rate report was the only high impact news coming from New Zealand last week but failed to affect a substantial move, and the NZDUSD kept inside of Monday’s range. Last week, the big fundamental impact came from the US, which had FOMC on Wednesday and Non-Farm Payroll on Friday. The former event is what finally broke the pair out of its range, pushing up over 130 pips in just a couple of hours. As noted above, the pair quickly reversed this climb and eventually ended the week lower by 0.77%. The NZDUSD has now racked up a monthly loss of just over 7.00%. The next two worst performing pairs on the monthly time scale are the GBPUSD and the AUDUSD, down by 5.63% and 5.48%, respectively. In the chart, we see the weekly opening price, and last Thursday’s high noted. In the bottom window, we see the Stochastic indicator from TradingView. Traders who use this indicator will try to look for overbought or oversold areas in price - gauging whether a sell or buy is unfolding when the indicator is showing extremes on either end of the window. It could also be used for divergence as we see a few hours before FOMC news. The indicator did not make a lower low, while the NZD/USD moved slightly lower than the low made in the previous session. Next week’s high impact events Events relating to the NZDUSD this week are the numerous speeches by US Federal Reserve officials. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, speaks on Monday and Tuesday, likely to further dampen hopes for a 75 basis points hike from the Fed in June. The more hawkish officials such as John C. Williams (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and Christopher Waller (Board of Governors) take the mic after Bostic, potential building a case against Bostic’s and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovishness. Thrown in the mix this week is the US Inflation Rate YoY for April. This report is due on Wednesday (UTC+4) and is expected to fall closer to 8.0% from 8.5% in March.
by BlackBull_Markets
Australian dollar falls on US retail salesAustralia's employment report was respectable, and the Australian dollar's reaction was muted. The economy created 17.9 thousand new jobs in March, down from 77.4 prior and shy of the estimate of 40.0 thousand.  The unemployment rate remained at a sizzling 4.0%, the lowest since 2008. Today's numbers are unlikely to shed much light on the timeline for the RBA's expected rate hike. The Bank stayed on the sidelines at the April meeting, but the change in language in the rate statement was enough to convince the markets that a rate-hike cycle is imminent. Inflation is soaring, and the strong economic fundamentals indicate that the economy can handle a series of rate hikes. What is standing in the way of a May hike is the Australian general election on May 21st. The RBA will be reluctant to make a move in the middle of an election campaign, although the record books indicate that the central bank did raise rates in November 2007 in the midst of an election. The Australian dollar fell early in the North American session, after the release of US March retail sales. The US dollar has posted broad gains, as investors were relieved that the retail sales were within expectations, despite soaring inflation. Core retail sales actually beat the consensus of 1.0% MoM, with a gain of 1.1%. This was up nicely from 0.6% in February. The headline figure came in at 0.6% (0.8% prior). This was just shy of the 0.5% estimate. The US dollar also received some help from Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment, which improved to 65.7 in April, up sharply from 59.4 in March. The Expectations Index surged, pointing to renewed consumer confidence. AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.7605 and 0.7750 There is support at 0.7371 and 0.7282
by OANDA
Fed's Catch-22A Catch-22 is a problem for which the only solution is denied by a circumstance inherent in the problem or by a rule. This is exactly the problem the Federal Reserve faces. Historic inflation continues to accelerate, becoming embedded into the market's expectations and risking a spiral effect In order to stop rapid inflation, and achieve its mandate of price stability, the Fed must raise interest rates as rapidly as inflation is rising. The Fed cannot raise interest rates as rapidly as would be needed to slow rapid inflation because it would rapidly begin to freeze liquidity in the corporate bond market. Rapid tightening would spillover to corporate earnings, asset prices, consumer borrowing and spending, economic growth and ultimately employment, countering the Fed's mandate of maintaining stable employment. The last time that investment grade corporate bond prices fell below their monthly EMA ribbon support was in March 2020, when the Fed made emergency purchases of corporate bond ETFs to ensure liquidity. Now the bond prices are falling below their monthly EMA ribbon support and the Fed is taking the exact opposite measure by calling for accelerated rate hikes. Is it possible to avoid a recession at this point? Only time will tell but the charts seem to doubt it.
AMEX:LQD
by SpyMasterTrades
4
What 3 events will traders be watching this week? 31 Jan- 05 FebThis week’s 3 events will concentrate on US employment numbers. The released figures could bolster or work against the strength found in the USD since the beginning of the year. For instance, the NZD and EUR have quickly dropped in value against the USD and are currently at a multi-month low against the greenback. Depending on this week’s numbers, the GBP, CAD, and AUD, which are presently floating close to 1-month lows, may soon be joining the NZD and EUR at values not seen since mid-2020. Wednesday and Thursday, February 02 and 03: Wednesday: Jolts Job DEC Thursday: ADP Employment Change JAN Two highly anticipated precursors to Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls report are released over Wednesday and Thursday this week. The first, the JOLTS Job Openings for December, is expected to remain close to record highs with 10.5 million jobs advertised across the US. Employers are seemingly experiencing difficulty holding onto their workforce, with job quits matching recorded highs and labour force participation struggles to budge from 40-year lows. While the JOLTS Job Openings report is limited in its impact on forex and stocks, it does help set the tone for the following two more appreciable job reports. The second, the ADP Employment Change for January, is estimated to report the lowest number of new jobs added to the US private sector since February 2021, with the consensus forecasting 200K. The typically slow start to the year, if forecasts are accurate, will sit in stark contrast to December’s (2021) 800K jobs, which shocked analysts who were expecting less than half this number at the end of last year. Saturday, February 05: Non-farm Payrolls JAN Non-farm Payrolls JAN is forecast to report 155K jobs added to the US economy in January, representing a marked slowdown in jobs growth, but in line with what has been seen with the past few months. Last month’s report for December 2021 delivered 199K jobs, while November 2021 reported 249K jobs. Disappointing Non-farm Payrolls may no longer have the same impact it once did, as investors appear content with the slowing job growth, and negative pressure on the USD typically fails to eventuate after such an event. While job growth is slowing, it should be noted that wage pressure is rising, which could be a good thing for US consumer spending and optimism for the US economy in general.
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY dips ahead of Japanese CPIThe Japanese yen has edged higher for a second straight day. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at the 114.00 line. In economic news, Japan releases December inflation data and the BoJ will publish the minutes of its December meeting. In the US, economic releases were mixed. Unemployment claims jumped to 287 thousand, above the forecast of 220 thousand and up from the previous release of 231 thousand. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 23.2, up from 15.4 prior and above the consensus of 20.0 points. Inflation in Japan is moving higher, although at a much more modest clip than is the case in the US or UK. Core CPI, which had been hovering close to zero for months, surprised to the upside in November with a 0.5%, up from 0.1% prior. This was its highest level since February 2020. BoJ policymakers aren't losing sleep over surging inflation, but after decades of deflation, rising prices are a novelty for the central bank, as well for businesses and consumers. The BoJ has no plans to shift from its ultra-easy stance, and the bank kept policy intact at this week's policy meeting. Still, it was significant that at the meeting, the bank revised upwards its inflation forecast, which hasn't occurred since 2014.  For the fiscal year starting in April, the BoJ is projecting inflation of 1.1% up from the 0.9% gain it forecast in October. This is noteworthy because the BoJ is acknowledging that inflation could overshoot its projections, something we never saw in the years of deflation. Unlike their counterparts at the Bank of Japan, Fed policymakers are focused on surging inflation and how to contain it. A rate hike is looking increasingly likely in March, but it's unclear just how much of a push the Fed has in mind. We've seen a measured approach of 0.25% hikes for years, but with inflation running at a 40-year high, there is talk of a dramatic 0.50% hike. The Fed is clearly sensitive to market conditions, so odds are that it will avoid a huge 0.50% jump in rates. Still, unusual times may require unusual methods, so it will certainly be interesting to follow the Fed in the weeks ahead. There is resistance at 115.54, followed by 116.88 USDJPY has support at 113.18 and 112.16
by OANDA
3
Euro hovers at 1.13 lineOn the final day of 2021, the major pairs are stuck in tight ranges. The euro is trading quietly at 1.1310 in the European session. This holiday week was characterized by a dearth of economic releases and illiquid markets. That left the markets vulnerable to volatility due to market-movement headlines, but in the end, the currency markets had a generally quiet week. The Omicron wave has caused a massive rise in infections, with the US setting an all-time daily record earlier this week. Still, the markets have been calm and collected about Omicron, relying on reports that show that the newest Covid variant is extremely contagious but causes less severe illness than previous Covid variants which caused tremendous economic damage.  On Thursday, US chief medical advisor said that we could see a peak in the US in late January. This means that Omicron isn't going away anytime soon, and the infection numbers will continue to be sky-high into the new year. The critical question for the markets is how sick are those people who are infected with Omicron - if we don't see a huge spike in hospitalisations, then market sentiment should not be weighed down by Omicron. The markets haven't let Omicron ruin the positive mood, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones posting record highs and a movement in the currency markets away from the safe-haven dollar. This upbeat mood was reinforced this week by a larger than expected decline in US crude oil inventories and an unemployment claims release of 198 thousand, which was better than expected. This suggests that the US economy continues to perform well, even with the explosion in Omicron cases. EUR/USD has support at 1.1255. Below, there is support at 1.1190 There is resistance at 1.1364 and 1.1408
by OANDA
1
GBP/USD - A Strong Barrier of ResistanceThe dollar has come under pressure over the last couple of weeks as the economic data has necessitated a more dovish line from the Federal Reserve. The result is that, despite breaking below the 200/233-day SMA and into bearish territory, the pair has failed to gain much traction to the downside. We'll soon see whether that failure is temporary or more prolonged, with the pair now testing the upper end of that band from below. This also coincides with the 55-day SMA and the 38.2% retracement level of the June highs to July lows. On the 4-hour chart, this also coincides with the 200/233-period SMA band, so it's no surprise the pair is seeing so much resistance around this area. The rally over the last couple of weeks is seeing momentum slow, as evidenced by the rising wedge - a bearish pattern, and the stochastic and MACD on the 4-hour chart, where divergences are clear. That would suggest a continuation of the move lower is more likely but also that a break above 1.38 could trigger quite a sharp and bullish move higher, with stops above here potentially exacerbating any move. With Fed speakers and US data today and the US jobs report tomorrow, we may not have to wait long to see which it will be.
by OANDA
GBPUSD - A Bearish Red Flag?The pound slid following the release of the UK jobs report on Tuesday, despite the headline numbers looking broadly positive for the country. The UK labour market looks in a very strong position as the furlough scheme continues to be phased out. The data today is very encouraging, from the drop in the headline unemployment rate to the payrolls. Vacancy numbers are generally a positive, although as we've seen for some time, a labour shortage has been problematic for business and any significant impact on wages could create problems for the Bank of England. We shouldn't get too carried away with the earnings data at this point, though, with it being largely due to the base effects, as millions saw wages or hours reduced last year following the introduction of the furlough scheme. With the furlough scheme ending next month, we'll soon know the full effects of the pandemic on the labour market but the expectation is that it will be far less signficant than feared.   Despite the data appearing encouraging, the pound tumbled after the release and now sees itself approaching some major support levels. What concerns me about this is that some seemingly good data preceded a drop in the currency. While this may not be a bearish signal, in itself, it's at least a red flag that casts doubt on its ability to rebound. The key level below remains the 1.3650 region, which is the lower end of the 200/233-daily SMA band which has supported the pair during its ascent. A move below here would be a very negative development. Prior to this, 1.3730 will be an interesting test of support, being the 61.8% retracement of the July lows to highs. Should the pair rally, 1.38 could be the first test of resistance, with it having provided support over the last week.
by OANDA
DE30: The Most Detailed Analysis (Megaphone)On the DE30, price is respecting the non horizontal supports and resistances since many weeks. So what do we have on this one ? 1. Non horizontal Support: The price is retesting now for a second time our yellow support meaning that we should look only for buy setups on the short term. So let's dive in to see what are our possible opportunities. 2. Double Bottom: Although it hasn't been valid yet, but it's clear that we might have a second rejection around our support so a double bottom pattern would add a lot of confirmation to our decision. 3. MEGAPHONE: A megaphone is an unorthodox pattern but experience has taught us to take it into consideration for it has a very high volatility. Inside a megaphone, which is similar to a divergent wedge, the more the price moves, the bigger the volatility becomes. This also backed by fundamentals as we have seen some positive results on the German economy (unemployment rate), which boosts the DE30 because a better than expected results has a good impact on the industry. Now a megaphone is created by these events followed by corrections, which usually are smaller than the impulse. Need more details, you just have to contact us, Trade Safe
DLong
by Therealsmaira