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AUDCAD setting up for a double bottom and wave 4AUDCAD is predicted to move lower, and started trending down, so I am going long. It's complicated... Let me explain why, to sum up it is because nothing ever goes in a straight line, and trends have waves. I would not recommend doing this to someone working at a hedge fund or bank, unless they are trying to get fired. Fundamental drivers & economic calendar In March Canada gained 303K jobs which is even better than the previous month (260K) and far beyond what was expected. In March Australia "only" gained 70K jobs, and of course every Forex trader knows the population of Australia and Canada. AUD/CAD just like AUD/Everything has been violently going up since March 2020 as you know. Australia numbers are better than Canada ones, but Canada numbers are becoming "less bad". Now that economies are going back to normal, it might be the time for the AUD 1 year rally to cool off a little. Today the big news were the March trade balance numbers, far below what was expected, and the RBA statement (they maintain rates). The net export numbers for March might be what slapped the australian dollar down today but they're not a huge deal either, and obviously it's not a long term thing that will create a huge change in the value of the currency. The important events to watch will be: Perhaps the Canada central bank governor speech tomorrow, and then Canada employment numbers this Friday, next week Australia consumption (retail sales) on monday, next week thursday Australia employment numbers. Between now and Friday or even late next week there are no (foreseeable) potential violent news that will push the CAD even higher, or AUD lower. Price Support I have identified a strong support area that goes way back at around 0.945. Indeed as you can see below, the price has been bouncing very strongly off this level several time: The recent price action has again confirmed this support. We might be in the presence of a double bottom, again, as there was another one a month ago on 0.95 as I have shown higher. We can also add the diagonal support that follows: Wave analysis We note the following: - The price made a wave 3 which extended to the common 1.618, from which a wave 4 often starts - Retail is up to 90% long, they are not a huge proportion of market participants but still a good representation of what baddies are doing - Wave 2 retraced to the typical 61.8% level, we can expect wave 4 to get to 38.2% - Wave 3 here is the big one (for now), even if the current downmove is (5) it has decent odds of being really small anyway This looks like a wave 3 ending. Of course we do not bet on a complete reversal, but simply a pullback, 38.2% being the most likely one. No point holding too strongly, bad traders, which are typically mega long (Over 75% here) at the bottom of downtrends, are very quick to close their troll positions as soon as the market rallies a little. All in all a solid buy, I am very picky about going "countertrend" I think it is stupid 99% of the time, this is one of these exceptions. There are several ways to play this, placing a buy at the lows with a tight stop (I would not go below 1:3 risk to reward), waiting for a vertical candle down on a low timeframe (M30 let's say) followed by a green one (and enter at close), etc... Not a recommendation to buy or sell, I would myself enter quite aggressively, trade it if you want to and how ever you want to. And as always with chart patterns these days, the textbook way to trade double bottoms is a great way to lose money, by the time you enter (at the neckline) the price is already at - or almost at - target. The second the majority hears of a chart pattern, their risk & loss aversion ruins it near instantly.
Long
by MrRenev
Opportunity to Sell GBPNZD's Dead Cat Bounce The GBPNZD pair appears to be forming a new Dead Cat Bounce pattern, which typically signifies likely bearish reversals. An opportunity to sell around 1.94500 (previous swing high) may emerge, provided that the price rebounds from the 50-day MA (in green) and 100-day MA (in blue) for a second time. It did the same during the establishment of the first Dead Cat Bounce. If the price breaks down below the support at 1.92000, then the subsequent dropdown will likely test the psychologically significant support level at 1.90000. New Zealand's CPI numbers and UK's unemployment data, both scheduled for publication on Tuesday, are likely to cause heightened volatility. This could serve as the catalyst for the expected bearish reversal.
Short
by Trendsharks
Pound falls to 6-week low on soft job numbersThe British pound has recorded considerable losses on Wednesday and fallen below the 1.38 line. Currently, GDP/USD is trading at 1.3775, down 0.63% on the day. The UK released a mixed employment report earlier on Tuesday. In February, claims jumped to 86.6 thousand, compared to the forecast of 9.0 thousand. This was the highest claim count since July. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.0% in January, down from 5.1% beforehand and below the 5.2% expected. There was more positive news from wage growth, which accelerated for a seventh successive month, with a strong gain of 4.8%. Still, investors preferred to focus on the disappointing claimant count and sent the pound to its lowest level since early February. The pound is also under pressure this week from a vaccine spat with the EU. A shortage of AstraZeneca vaccines across Europe has resulted in a threat by the UE to block shipments of the vaccine to the UK. The irony in this situation is that due to the blood-clot scare over the vaccines, Europeans may be reluctant to take the jabs at a time when the EU is busy trying to hoard vaccines and hold up exporting the shots to the UK and elsewhere. A busy week for UK events continues on Wednesday, with the release of inflation data (7:00 CPI). Headline CPI is expected to rise from 0.7% to 0.8%, while Core CPI is projected to remain at 1.4%. The UK vaccination rollout has been proceeding nicely, and with the UK expected to ease lockdown restrictions next week, an increase in economic activity should translate into inflation continuing to pick up speed. 1.3889 has strengthened in resistance, as GBP/USD has declined considerably. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.3782. Below, there is support at 1.3699
by OANDA
How to trade the US Dollar Index based on US FED policy actionsYesterday JPowell was very dovish. In summary, it's clear that the FED will use every tool necessary to achieve full employment. This implies that he'll let inflation run hot above 2% for a while. The recent rise in the US 10 YR yield indicates inflation is coming. However, JPowell said that he won't use tools to raise rates to follow the yield curve yet but implied that the FED may extend treasuries maturities should higher yields negatively affect unemployment numbers. Unemployment is still high. How to ride this out JPowell seems to think that the upcoming inflation will be transitional. He also expects the GDP growth to hit 6.5% by the end of this year. In addition, increasing vaccination will boost reopening economies around the world. Therefore, I expect the US Dollar to be strong for a while before heading lower. This play has the least resistance and current economic conditions support this. However, the US Dollar may immediately head lower as more money is introduced into the system. The FED will continue with QE as stimmy cheques hit banks this week.
TVC:DXYLong
by GrizzlyBearBee
Civilian Unemployment Rate - V1Continuing on my exploration for signs of economic trouble ahead (or not?) I thought I'd take a look at the Unemployment rate figures, assuming they'd follow patterns like everything else. Well, they sure do seem to.... I've forgone my normally Fibonacci delving in the timing intervals and just used some basic extrapolation, as it's made all the harder by Trading View not correctly accounting the date across the bottom past the current date, but the timings make logical sense in regards to longer economic cycles, with more and more violent ups and downs. Anyway, enjoy, comments / thoughts always welcome.
FRED:UNRATE
by TheDarkEconomist
Dollar General/ DG GREAT BUY Surprisingly enough this company is stellar when you look at the financials. Its Cash Cycle is under 30 days with absolutely NO ACCOUNTS RECIEVABLE!!! its been growing its revenue around 10% each year, management has been buying back shares to increase shareholder equity, its dividends are squat :( , but they are gunning for Five and Below/ FIVE s market by opening POP Shelfs in the 'Burbs. If the POP Shelfs are able to take hold then I could see this company keeping par with its 10% revenue growth rate for the next 10 years. For the past decade the GPM has not dipped below 30%. the Return on Equity (for the value investors like myself) has been steadily growing with the last years being 25.5% with a 10 year average of 20%. And with COVID-19 still keeping people out of work and unemployment moderate to high I can see more households stretching the dollar which will grow this company's Revenue. As the families effected will be looking for the bargain stores to save their capital. The Company has ZERO short term debt, but they have no treasury shares. :( so, they have no equity out of the market and i think this particular reason is why i think its more of a "B+" investment rather than a A+ investment. If you're a conservative investor the D/E Ratio for the past year was .43, so that's not bad! with only 4% of their operating income going toward paying off interest on long term debt as compared to the moderate 15%. :) so when they buy their shares back its possible they might be retiring them. the Current Ratio has been a strong 1.5-1.7 for the past decade with a few exceptions, and their retained earnings pool has been steadily growing. Currently its trading under value with a fair market value of 196.xx with Ben Grahams formula putting it around 294.xx. I would love to see the price drop below 185.xx before buying so that way one can maximize their return on investment. If you're a growth investor or value investor this is a great company a solid B+ or A- to build a portfolio on. I would love to see this ABCD pattern complete as a great entry.
NYSE:DGLong
by ARegularGuy
UNRATE - Dangerous low levelsLow levels of unemployment normally mean that the economy is at its best and that all companies are fully hired and investors have been investing a lot to grow businesses. The danger is overinvesting and a very competitive environment which backslash in this euporic low levels of unemployment. These are well correlated to economies topping as the tipping point only means to fire people and turn into a downward trend again. Additionally the negative rates from the European Central Bank have sparked a lot of debate and there is no more further room for quantative easing if a economic collapse occurs. A recipe for distaster if you ask me, we will see it come around and most of the time act too late. There is no escape from it.
FRED:UNRATE
by TheTrex
12
GBP/USD Forecast | April 21, 2020Hello Traders! Considering the current status of COVID-19 and the upcoming UK Claimant Count Change (Unemployment Claims) that will be released in a few hours (Around 1 a.m. Central Time), we could expect to see a downward movement of the GBP. If unemployment rates are worse than expected, we can take this opportunity to make a profit by selling the British Pound. Again, due to the extremely high volatility of the markets in these past weeks, there still is a possibility that the markets could bounce up instead. For that reason, I would suggest using "Sell Stops" at a lower price point instead of current market execution so that you can add a layer of risk management in case the markets don't move downward. Thank you for considering my opinion on GBP/USD! - ALPHALICIOUS Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion on the upcoming markets. I am not responsible for any trades that you place. Please trade using proper risk management and your own analysis. Thank you.
Short
by alphalicious
1
Dax daily: 16 Jul 2020Yet another great prediction. If you've read our analysis yesterday and traded it accordingly, we congratulate you for great profits. As we predicted, the price had an initial push lower to closed the gap, which correlated with past VPOC. This was the level which had double significance for buyers who stepped in to take the price to 12 882 and even broke out this resistance. This one functioned to suppress further bullish momentum and Dax quickly returned to retest its importance. The price was oscillating up and down, just to close the day on the same level and formed the VPOC slightly above it. Important zones Resistance: 12 882, 13 119 Support: 12 592 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 13:45 CEST - ECB Main Refinancing Rate + Monetary Policy Statement 14:30 CEST - ECB Press Conference 14:30 CEST - USA - Retail Sales & Unemployment claims Today's session hypothesis Today's session opened below 12 882. Market participants will most likely attempt to retest yesterday's close as it correlates with the S/R zone and the VPOC too. This is the area where we'll need to monitor the price action to further establish directional bias. Dax is slowly aiming higher and if the continuation prevails, our bullish target lays up at 13 119. Stay on alert as we have a day packed with fundamental releases and these could easily rock the boat.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
So... What is next? Shortest recession in play?Stock market - Against all odds, S&P index has risen almost 32% since hitting a low for the year on March 23. The fact that it happened after a ferocious plunge of 35% between Feb. 20 and March 23, the most devastating sell-off since the great depression, made the feat even more remarkable. As a matter of fact, the market posted its best quarter since 1998, with Nasdaq leading the way by soaring 30.6% for the quarter, the most since 1999. Some speculated that the fast recovery was due to the big outflow of money from the fixed-income market into the stock market as emerging market fails to meet its debt obligation. Others credited young investors (medium age of 31) on Robinhood (3 millions user added 2020, 13 millions total) with stock market's spectacular rally. I personally doubt that the combined purchasing power of all Robinhood users is strong enough to sway the stock market. Nonetheless, the stock market performance is not representative of the entire economy as there are more than 30 millions small & mid-sized company not listed on major U.S stock exchanges GDP - What is even more incredible about the stock market's recovery is that it all happened after various sources estimated the GDP contraction to be around 30% to 50% in second quarter Recently, Fed and policymakers projected the economy to shrink 6.5% (medium projection) in 2020 and the unemployment rate to be 9.3% at the end of the year Corporate earning - According to data from S&P Capital IQ, 40 percent of the S&P 500, about 200 companies, have withdrawn their guidance and declined to make EPS estimate in 2020. This lack of guidance has caused a lot of problem for the prediction of corporate earning. A recent analysis by CNBC earnings editor Robert Hum showed enormous differences at historical level between the high and low estimates for the largest stocks in the S&P 500. According to numbers compiled by the data provider FactSet, second-quarter profits will fall more than 40 percent. Refinitiv is projecting about a 43% drop in second-quarter earnings. Expect to get a more clear picture of corporate earnings around mid-July as banks release their corporate earnings. Even though the stock market is reflecting more of future sentiment than current economic condition, the speed of its recovery seems to indicate that most investors believe that not only will the market erase all the losses in 2020, but also it will quickly resume the long-term growth trend equals that of 2019, which seems highly unlikely to me. Again, it is hard not to notice the massive distortion between the stock market's performance and corporate earning. Unemployment - Initially, the hope is that most temporary layoffs would not turn into permanent job loss. However, as lockdown extends, many furloughed employees are at the risk of becoming unemployed as more and more small businesses going out of the business. Roughly 20 million Americans are currently receiving unemployment benefits and the insured unemployment rate is still high at 13.4%. BLS said that discrepancy in unemployment # due to "misclassification" has been adjusted accordingly. An alternative measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed fell to 18% from 21.2%. Overall, better than expected unemployment # and steadily declining initial claim and continuous claim # have painted a much better picture for the labor market. However, unemployment remains at historic levels. Output and employment remain far below their pre-pandemic levels, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Pandemic - WHO reported around 180,000 new coronavirus cases last Sunday, the single-largest increase since the pandemic began, with two thirds of new cases coming from the Americas. Around half of the 50 U.S. states were also reporting a rise in new coronavirus cases, most notable in southern states that were previously spared from the Covid-19 ravage. On Tuesday, United States recorded the biggest single-day rise in new cases since the pandemic began. According to Bloomberg report, most experts believe a vaccine won’t be ready until next year. Other factors - Trade war with China and upcoming election... #1. Median existing-home price last month was $284,600, up 2.3% from May 2019. #2. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.13% for the week ending June 18. Mortgage rates have drop to another record low. #3. The number of Americans applying for home mortgages has hit an 11-year high. #4. An index measuring homes in contract to sell, or pending sales, jumped by a record 44% in May. #5. A record spike in U.S. retail sales, though the recovery happened after a huge dive of retail sales a month earlier. #6. PMI has surged sharply after a huge plunge since the pandemic started. It is possible that the # is skewed by the lack of small business participation and the effect of China re-opened its economy ahead of other major economy. I believe most current home buyers are not heavily impacted during this economic downturn and their purchase decisions are probably not indicative of the economic recovery. Shortest recession is made possible because this economic crash was driven by the uncertainty of pandemic rather than economic fundamentals? I don't know. But if you only look at real estate and stock market, it surely seems so.
AMEX:SPY
by Libratus
2
SPY 17.6.2020 - WE ARE BACK! Hi, traders. My name is Lukas and I am a beginner in trading, respectively, I only trade 9 months. But that means I have to do the necessary analyzes without it I can't trade. I want to show you how I work on myself and document my beginnings. I use Vix and my strategy is built on to return to average. I highlight the important support levels and resistances that flow from the volume profile, all drawn on graph. These zones determine the ability to respond in some way to the market from 1 to 3, with 1 being the largest. Short description of analysis: Hello again traders! Sorry that I've been silent these few months. All this pandemic thing made things hard even for me but I still trade. I would like to start with FED. Their aid was that huge that marketplace is year ahead despite current situations like COVID 19, massive unemployment, riots all around USA. Furthermore, VIX works great with the given support levels and I expect from the market that it will accumulate between the given resistance and the support level. Of course, my analysis does not serve like market forecasts and I am not responsible for your trades if you use my analysis for your own trades.
AMEX:SPY
by Lucas_Sochulak
Is 27,000 going to be your number? There were mad moves on the DJI (Wall Street) north on Friday 5th May 2020. The bulls gored the bears big time. But there's 'fundamental' stuff that's not right. The Bureau of Labour Statistics (easily findable via a search engine), said that their figures were not correct. They even said in their report that if unemployment was counted more correctly the percentage would have been 3% higher. However, the bulls were in a frenzy. Greed and hope dominated. Reality meant nothing. Then there are other problems coming up. If you don't believe that COVID-19 has died and you think that human beings are the main vehicle of transmission, then mass protests breaching social distancing and public gatherings are likely to bring a second wave of virus infections. Hello - what caused the bubble to pop in the first instance? If you don't believe that there is cure or vaccine in sight for the next 6 months to fight this virus, then it means the virus is gonna exploit human interactions from mass protests across America and other parts of the world - without restraint. If you believe that money printing is the economic fix for the myriad effects of COVID-19 on GDP (and that GDP is important), then for you the markets will charge north forever! The choice is yours about what you believe. But what you believe could be the result of manipulation of minds by fake news. Some say there is no such thing as fake news. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
2
ridethepig | Flatten the CurveA paradigm shift followed the "It's time" chart more rigidly than even I expected. Apologetically we can give the official ✅ for those following the example of dogmatism from @ridethepig and can see clearly how far we have come: "It's Time" 📌 It can be said that the opening knee-jerk reaction from "The Great Lockdown" is over and we can begin to enjoy a return back to the old 'normality' (whatever that means). The unemployment rate has likely peaked here in this cycle, it is curious how this happens so often, the cycle nature of time and human behaviour allows us the ability to prove all kinds of flows and forecasts; but with certain classical variations, as in the present case. So, given the huge development in claims, it is reasonable to challenge the highs of what is undeniably a historic crash. What can one learn from the flows, to fully understand this question we will need to begin digging a lot deeper. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!
FRED:CCSAShort
by ridethepig
Either which way for NZD/USD - its all on 13:30!!!!NZD/USD have been locked in a titanic battle for control of this chart for the last 8 hours or so. Technically we should break south to relieve overbought conditions on H1 timeframe but with the key Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate out of the USA due at 13:30 GMT, this pair ain't goin' nowhere for 3 hours. The risk it has to be said is that the numbers which will be the worst on record will miss target and be worse than expected. This could induce heavy dollar selling but if the numbers come in as expected we could see a USD bounce. I'm positioned SHORT because of the technicals but I have an ultra tight STOP which will be tightened more before 13:30. This could be very interesting!
by theforexportal