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Unemployment

The DOWn JONES On Schedule For May 6th-8th Reversal?Of course we can reverse sooner, as I predicted previously, but this is what makes the most sense today and falls in line with some old charts... Let us assume that the money printing is the rising tide. If the market goes up on average this week and or at least follows the rules for a TD9 printing, we will have a potential reversal on that indicator (not a big deal). Normally, I wouldn't be looking for this speculative of a play. But if we get to the $25,200-$27,100 zone, this hits my targets on previous charts and has strong confluence with the FIB Zones. I then decided to ask the question what type of PLANNED news events around May 6th-8th that would cause this reversal within the fundamental narrative. NEWS TO EXPECT May 8th *Non-Farm Payroll *Unemployment Report *Average Hourly Earnings *Wholesale Inventories Please do your own due diligence and remember this is NOT trading advice.
DJ:DJI
by ChartProphet
4
S&P500 Does Unemployment rate point to a Dotcom/ Subprime CRASH?Following the attention that my recent Dow Jones/ S&P500 ideas got (you can find both at the bottom of this study) in relation to a potential market crash, I thought it would be a good time to look look at how the stock markets (S&P on this particular study) went by in times of sharp increase on the Unemployment Rate. ** Before we start, please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** Since 1970 every sharp rise on the Unemployment Rate has resulted in a sharp stock market crash with the exception of 2 times. In total we've had 8 sharp rises on the Unemployment Rate, 6 resulted into a strong market crash and 2 had stocks unaffected (even rose). At this point I want to bring forward the fact that during the last two Bear Markets (Dotcom, Subprime), the Unemployment Rate crossed above its MA50 (see the chart that follows). That is something it has already done this time. Does this mean that we have just initiated a new Bear Market similar to that of the Dotcom and Subprime market crashes? I am very interested in reading your opinion on the matter. Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! * Related ideas on S&P and Dow Jones:
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
24
DISNEY SHORT @120The Walt Disney Company. My attention was drawn to this stock due to the negative affect its news may have produced on Netflix on Friday 17/04/2020. While Netflix's stock price decreased by -3,69%, Disney's stock price increased by +4.52%. I find this paradoxical because if analyst downgraded Netflix and weren't optimistic on the Netflix's business growth due to the negative affect of unemployment on the streaming/leisure industry as well as cost cutting on secondary non-essential products and services then why did Disney go up? Disney is a direct competitor to Netflix with its new streaming service Disney+. It offers a variety of content with movies, series and original creations ranging from Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic and many more studios. The success of the new Disney+ streaming service was iterated in an investor relations post from April 8th saying that after only 5 months Disney+ had reached more than 50 million paid users in over a dozen countries and is expected to expand to more countries over 2020. Of course, is good news for the company as it has started to make its mark in the streaming business alongside competitors such as ROKU, APPLE, AMAZON & NETFLIX. Therefore, perceived as good news by investor leading the stock price to surge up by over +7% intra-day (101.07 to 107.99). BUT In this same press-release, it is specified that it is a forward-looking statement meaning the information could be rendered irrelevant due to internal decision factors based on: - changes in domestic and global economic conditions, competitive conditions and consumer preferences;adverse weather conditions or natural disasters; health concerns; international, regulatory, political, or military developments (including government requests to delay direct-to-consumer launch in certain jurisdictions);technological developments; and labor markets and activities. As well as external factors, mainly COVID-19. The affected areas of the company by COVID-19 could be: the performance of the Company’s theatrical and home entertainment releases; the advertising market for broadcast and cable television programming; demand for our products and services; construction; expenses of providing medical and pension benefits; income tax expense; performance of some or all company businesses either directly or through their impact on those who distribute our products; and achievement of anticipated benefits of the TFCF transaction. The Walt Disney company has 5 market segments, all related to the leisure, entertainment and travel business's: 1- Walt Disney Studios Entertainment 2 - Disney Consumer Products 3 - Walt Disney Parks and Resorts 4 - Disney Media Networks 5 -Walt Disney Internet Group/Disney Interactive Media Group 1st quarter will be having poor results as all segments apart from home streaming services of Disney and channels will see increased revenue due to closed parks and resorts, cutting out a part of cash flow. Looking for a run up to results due to optimism around streaming services and neglect of other operations. Also, the stock is negatively correlated to unemployment rate which is foretasted to reach 20% and be worse than during the 2008 crisis. The plan is to short the shit out of Disney with a small position from 120 as a swing trade waiting for the stock to crash post-earnings release going into Q2 where the effects of COVID-19 will really start affecting the economy. This analysis is based on the assumption that Disney will disappoint in its earnings report. I am confident in this analysis but must remain wary because you can never be sure of how earnings release will be perceived by traders and investors. Earning estimates between last Q4 of 2019 and Q1 of 2020 are expected to drop by 16% whereas I am looking towards a higher drop meaning further disappointment. Looking to hit lower lows in end May to mid June. Might seek to buy back in once company is undervalued and how the global economy behavior evolves. PLAN: There is an interesting risk/reward on this trade. Open position @120 with TP1 @110, TP2 @100 and TP3@80 and SL@125. TIME: Swing trade with a 4-6 week time limit. NOTE: The streaming part of the business will probably be the most talked about figure, potentially creating hype. Let me know what you think in the comments as I'll respond and be updating the trade as we move forward into the week.
NYSE:DISShort
by Samuelitooh
1
IT'S NOT OVER YETWith this chart I would like to show you, why we potentially haven’t seen the "real" bottom of the market yet. So today is an important day for the markets. After all the new help programs and emergency cuts by several central banks and governments from all country’s in the world, we will see jobless claims numbers released today. And I think this number will drive the market for the next few days/weeks. We will see in which shape the labour market is in the US for the moment. If we see a number above 1.000.000 in jobless claims the market could go even lower and break the new lows from Monday. On the other hand we're standing in front of a turning point from bearish to bullish if you look for the MACD in the daily at the S&P500. My intuition still says me that we will go lower. Strong days with more than 10 percent per day in bullish direction are a significant signs of a bear market, where these things happen over and over again as a part of a short term correction in a longer term bearish trend. So stay tuned, I'm looking for the numbers release today before making any new steps in any asset class.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by macrolukas
1
Long EXIVNow that VIX is in backwardation, it is a good time to bet on it. VIX reached one of its all time peaks a week ago and has been on a cliff dive since. EXIV tracks EURO STOXX 50® Volatility (VSTOXX®) at a -1 multiple. (www.stoxx.com) Although it is not directly the VIX, VSTOXX closely mirrors the VIX. As it is turbulent times, I think EXIV can reach at least the $15 level before bad news comes up skyrocketing the VIX again, in which case switch over to TVIX. We see a crossover on the 2 hour chart, but not yet on the 4 hour. I believe Trump and the government will pair Thursday's terrible unemployment numbers with the passing of the stimulus bill to mitigate the negative effects of the unemployment figures. What do you think? Will the bad of the unemployment figures outweigh the good of the stimulus bill passing?
ELong
by choiinho10
3
SPY hindsight is only 2020Update on $SPY, Good news-New Stimulus package will hopefully be passed this week. Bad News-More cases, Unemployment report coming out. Level 340 was finally broken and the downtrend is very strong. Looks like we'll enter the "Death Zone" at 213 and strong possibility of reaching 185. 43-55% down with recession ahead I think this would be where we consolidate, but I've been wrong before and I've also never been in something like this....NEVER. Stay safe out there and manage the risk reward ratio in the coming days.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Thisguy22
So Goes the Consumer, So Goes the Economy?My two most favorite indicators (RSI+MACD; not too crazy) just broke their monthly trends. I think consumption data should be followed more closely in the next quarter to provide us with reassurance that the consumer remains strong. Watch unemployment to remain contained, sentiment remain broadly positive - Umich, NFIB smallbus, OECD CEO - and that Homebuilder data continues this recent acceleration and wasn't just a one-off very strong month for NAHB, permits, & starts. - RH
AMEX:XLY
by RHTrading
Unemployment Rates and Economic TrendsUnemployment graph since 1950. Drastic highs and lows from business layoffs spurring economic crashes. Each trough puts in motion an economic recession. A healthy economy has an unemployment rate of 4.5%. Below or above that range is considered unhealthy. We are currently in the longest unemployment decrease in history. I think currently the US economy is recognizing an exhausting expansion. An 11 year expansion since the 2008 recession. Economies are like stocks, consisting of waves. With the FEDs regulating the buying and selling of bonds to offset inflation and deflation, attempting to control economic rollercoasters. This is only an idea but a downward shift will come, the question is when. Disclaimer: Unemployment rate does not count anyone not looking for work, which is probably higher today than in US history. One cause for the low unemployment rate.
FRED:UNRATE
by quantacake
Should We Ignore USDCAD Head & Shoulders?Reasons for buying USDCAD: - Disappointing Canadian employment data last Friday - Price bounced off both the demand zone and support trend line - Crude Oil Futures price rejected resistance trend line Last Friday, Canadian employment posted a huge drop and unemployment increased by 0.2% to 5.7%, both missing estimates by a wide margin. Despite this, the CAD still managed to maintain some strength, supported by the rise in oil prices. But at this point of time, the chart is showing that maybe, the market has not fully priced in the weak data yet. In the 4-hour USDCAD chart, we can see that the price plunged but bounced off the demand zone and support trend line after the US announced a delay to impose tariffs. Crude Oil Futures price also approached and rejected resistance trend line. Although the announcement on tariffs is a positive news, tariffs are still set to be imposed and not totally removed. The trade war has been creating a lot of volatility in the market, so we should always keep a lookout for the latest developments and manage risks accordingly. The head and shoulders pattern may form and play out, but I don't trade solely on chart patterns, that is why in this case, I will go long on the USDCAD.
Long
by PipHike