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How to know when stuff are rigged ? NFP, indices, gold price ...August 8, 2016 This is an abstract from my one of my blogs: www.lucky-index-trading.blogspot.com Compare this chart with my previous publication and comments So, from my experience, this is how it worked (and obviously I am merely stating a little portion of the big picture, but so far this "luckily" was enough to help predicting some moves based on correlation). Last Friday's US Non-farm Payroll (NFP - August 5, 2016) was apparently rigged according to some sources. Well, we did not really need to know how the fundamental worked to know the blue print would be "good" and thereby certainly pushing prices up, as the odds for indices to head upward was higher than otherwise. Let me explain. Do you remember the previous article I posted on July 31st, 2016? Yes, the one with the forecast of the CAC. So I was saying that a false breakout from the 4300-4450 range could occur (target: 4600). The CAC 40 did exactly range last week (August 1-5), going from about 4480 to as low as 4293 and now it is back to 4440 at the time I am writing this post. The trading range was perfectly supported by price action, supports / resistances, and so on. But moreover, if was also confirmed by the NFP's result, "fundamentally" pushing up on the CAC and making it soar from 4360 to 4410, therefore confirming the 4300-4450 range as previously stated in article 174 of the blog). Now, the SP500 made a new all-time record, and the Dow Jones soared along with the NASDAQ. What I mean is that it was totally predictable, because no matter what European indices had to go up, technically speaking. So in order to push the markets higher, data had to be manipulated.On the other hand, I made a forecast 2 years ago on Gold (XAUUSD), stating it would go as low as 1080 and then going back to 1367 (see article 118 + related charts). Since gold price reached 1370, it had to pullback (ie. go down). Given that it is for the time being negatively correlated with stock market indices, then if the Dow Jones is up, gold price will decrease. And this is exactly what we wanted since the target of roughly 1350-1367 was reached ! Therefore, from solely using gold price forecast and European price forecast, we could infer that the NFP result would be good, and send American indices to the sky. This is in my sense manipulation, and the bubble will probably burst next year. My take is that indices will globally shift downward in 1 or 2 months. CAC 40, Daily chart (see post from July 31st -> 2016-2018 forecast) -> It exactly did start to range from 4300 to 4450 !
INDEX:CAC40Short
by UnknownUnicorn569872
3
USDJPY/ GBPJPY: BUY $YEN IF DATA MISSES; SELL £YEN IF DATA HITSThe Risky BOJ front run trade using CPI inferences - I find it very interesting that the BOJ is releasing ALL of its key economic data (minus GDP) before making the easing decision, especially as we have already had CPI data this month so we will have an 2 CPI releases in one month which ive never seen happen before (CPI from JPY is usually due next week). - This to me indicates strongly that 1) All of the data released e.g. CPI, employment, retail sales, industrial production has some weighting on the BOJ decision and 2) that CPI especially has perhaps the strongest weighting on the BOJ decision as they are releasing 2 CPI prints in one month which means they brought forward the measurement by a week - this means they value the CPI print strongly. - Therefore, knowing this, in an ideal world either 1) ALL of the data will contract, which puts more pressure on a big BOJ easing package or 2) ALL of the data improves which eases the the pressure on the BOJ package - thus from here we are then able to take risk with an "educated" guess of what the policy will tend to be i.e. big or smaller. Long USDJPY if CPI less than -0.4% and generally weak/ miss other data: 1. The rationale is that a lower than expected and last print shows the JPY economy is decelerating even more aggressively than in previous months and therefore the BOJ will me MORE inclinded to ease heavier, as the data suggests there is a bigger problem. - Obviously the data/ CPI print imo acts as a function of BOJ easing, if we get massive misses across the slew of data then we should expect a bigger easing package than if there is only a slight miss - therefore we should treat our trades the same way. 2. Long USDJPY by xlots depending on the serverity of the data miss e.g. if CPI was -1.0% and unemployment ticked up to 3.4% i would do 3lots long usdjpy. If it was -0.5% and 3.3% i would do 1lot for example. Short GBPJPY if CPI is greater than -0.4% and other data generally hits/ is positive 1. The rationale is the opposite of the above - we assume if data improves that the BOJ will be less inclined to do a big easing package so we expect yen to remain strong so we go long yen and short GBP. - Once again the lot size is a function of the serverity of the data e.g. if CPI turned positive to 0.1% and unemployment dropped to 3% we would short 3lots. vs only 1lot if CPI ticked up only 10bps from last and unemployment ticked down only 10bps. Risks to the view: 1. The First risk is that data in general is considered to have "underlying trends" so the fact one print is outstandingly bad/ good might NOT impact policy e.g. thin about US NFP that was less than 100k and shocked markets - but it was a one off so didnt make the FOMC cut rates back. 3. Data underlying trends thus can reduce the weighting this data is given e.g. even if CPI improved to 0.1% from -0.4%, the BOJ could argue this is a one off print as the underlying trend for the past 6m+ has been negative inflation thus they will go ahead with a big easing package. - HOWEVER , the above point "3" in mind i believe data to the downside will be given a greater weighting than data to the upside, so we should have a short yen bias as weak data has been the underlying trend for most data points (especially CPI). -Further, i also think tail-end/ RHS/ LHS results will be given a proportionately larger weighting in their decision so this should also be reflected in our trading e.g. if CPI was -2% from -0.4% i would be a much much more aggressive buyer of UJ than if a -0.5% print from -0.4% is seen. The same can be said to the topside, if i saw +1.5% inflation from -0.4% last i would be a much greater seller of GBPJPY than if i saw -0.3% CPI from -0.4%.
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
TACTICAL FADE GBP RALLIES - UNEMPLOYMENT 4.7% VS 4.9%$ Unemployment was soaring lower at 4.7% vs 4.9%, but markets went for the NFP print instead though - taking it as dovish for the $ pushing it lower. I think on the other hand this provides a great opp to sell the GBP or EUR topside Extremes at 1.451 and upwards as the fed considers unemployment as its target NOT NFP prints, i actually think this EMP report was HAWKISH given the place the economy is in. There is expected to be jobs growth drag as the economy reaches full capacity im a seller of GBP down to 1.446 - as ive posted before i like selling GBP all day until the 23rd June #brexit. Also the fed uncertainty will almost certainly price GU lower than it is now by the 16th - hike or no hike imo.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
EURUSD: Counter Trend @ 1.12s or TCT In Anticipation of the moveA lot of my radar today going around my trading portfolio including the EURUSD. After being stopped out for a loss on yesterday’s bullish Bat pattern, we re-did our IPDE process and started making predictions for our next opportunities. I still don’t see a structure level that I’m a fan of on this pair that is until/unless we get down to the 1.1000 area, but the next potential speed bump may come around the 1.1200 even handle number. Aside from it being a psychological number, we have multiple harmonic moves setting up in that area, some Fibonacci extensions, and most importantly, looking left we’ve got structure leaving clues. As discussed in yesterday’s live session, the question just isn’t “where will we go?” but “how will we get there?” And this offers yet another trend continuation (TCT) opportunity if the market were to retrace in anticipation on that 1.1200 level being hit. Of course counter trend (CT) traders, this makes no difference to you as you’re only waiting for the next structure level. We’ve got the Jackson Hole Symposium going on today which may provide some movement along with Pre-GDP and our normal Thursday Unemployment Claims out at 8:30am & Pending Home Sales at 10:00am. I don’t even try to pretend that I can predict the outcome of these events, but keep those in mind while trading today. We’ll be keeping an eye out for this one in our live trading room today along with potential trades on the GBPUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY & USDCAD which are all high on my radar. Also it’s THURSDAY so make sure you check out my Youtube page later for my weekly Forex Trading Video www.youtube.com Have a great day of trading gang! Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered Click here for 20+ hours of FREE Training tradeempowered.com Click the link below to subscribe for more FOREX TRADING videos www.youtube.com Facebook: www.facebook.com Twitter: twitter.com
by Akil_Stokes
23
NZDUSD: The Last Trade Have OnIt's been a very slow week for me, but luckily Jason is picking up the slack. Going into Friday's Job Report I have no intention of entering any new positions aside from this potential bullish bat pattern on the Kiwi. NZDUSD is in a very interesting position as our HTF trend has bounced off previous structure resistance, yet our LTF trend has recently created a NSH and is retesting previous structure support. Consolidation perhaps?? Hope so since that would work well for pattern traders. VERY IMPORTANT. IF this trade does not trigger before tomorrow mornings top-down analysis THEN I will remove all orders as I want no parts of the crap shoot that is the Non-farm Payroll report. As always it's Thursday so that also means the release of my weekly WEEKEND REVIEW video. (link at bottom)) In this week's video "Dollars Don't Matter" I talk about this NZDUSD trade, how we can help each other out in the initial phases of backtesting an updated version of an inside bar breakout strategy that i used to trade, and of course an update of how Jason and i have down int he Syndicate. here's a clue...I haven't done much lol www.youtube.com Lastly make sure you clear your schedules for early April ;-)
Long
by Akil_Stokes
33
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NOW WITHIN TOUCHING DISTANCE OF NAIRU ESTIMATEOctober was the ninth consecutive month where the headline payrolls figure came in above 200k, rendering this year’s January to October period the strongest in fifteen years. The US NAIRU may be 5.2% or it may be 5.7%. But wherever it lies, the actual unemployment rate is moving swiftly towards it. Friday’s Employment Situation Report showed that the US economy added 214k jobs last month. Although weaker than most forecasters – Fathom included – had expected, it was nevertheless the ninth consecutive month where the headline payrolls figure came in above 200k, rendering this year’s January to October period was the strongest in fifteen years. In its latest policy statement, the FOMC acknowledged that “underutilisation of labor market resources … … gradually diminishing”. Previously, underutilisation had been described repeatedly as “significant”. In our view, the US labour market is tightening rapidly. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims fell to 279K in the week-ending November 1st – the lowest reading in more than fourteen years. The non-manufacturing ISM employment index can also be helpful in predicting payrolls from time to time, and this rose sharply in October to 59.6. It was the combination of weak initial claims and a strong reading on the ISM survey that had led us to expect a stronger payrolls figure this month; our own forecast was for an above-consensus rise of 300k. The headline unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 5.8% in October. According to the OECD, US unemployment is already below the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or NAIRU. It is just 0.1 percentage points above the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimate of the short-term NAIRU, although it remains 0.3 percentage points above the central tendency range of FOMC members’ forecasts of the longer-run unemployment rate. The salient fact is that, wherever the precise value of the NAIRU might lie – and there will always be some uncertainty about this – the actual rate of unemployment is closing in on it rapidly. In fact, it is unprecedented for the gap between the actual unemployment rate and the NAIRU to diminish so rapidly while policy remains on hold. If the labour market continues to tighten then this should soon feed through to stronger wage growth. Growth in average hourly earnings remained at 2.0% in the twelve months to October according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the Employment Compensation Index for private industry workers – the measure that includes wages, benefits and bonuses – rose at its fastest pace in over five years in the four-quarters to Q3. One data point does not seal it, of course. However, the National Federation of Independent Business survey, which has good leading indicator properties, also shows that the net proportion of small firms planning to raise wages is the highest since December 2008.
FRED:UNRATEShort
by charttrader
3
Bracketing The EuroIt's been a rough go around for pattern trades as of late (I'll talk more about that in my Weekend Review tonight www.youtube.com) But if the pattern is valid and meets you ROE's then you've got to pull the trigger. I'm still holding the 2nd half of my position on a EURUSD short from earlier in the week, but today we've got both a bullish gartley and a bearish bat bracketing this pair. For news today we want to keep an eye on 8:30am (ny) as our usual Unemployment Claims are released and then once again at 3:00pm (ny) as the ECB President Mario Draghi is set to speak.
by Akil_Stokes
12
AUDUSD - CPI q/q AftermathQuarterly CPI came out soft and Aussie declined across the board + China Flash PMI despite an increase from 48 to 48.3 was still seen as weak. In line with this chart, next support is likely to come in around 0.912 - 0.92 levels. 6 days for NFP data before the next big move. Also on the same day (02/05) Aussie PPI will be released as well. Note that on 01/05 we get China manufacturing PMI which is yet another risk to AUD. A retracement to 0.93 is ideal to short or to add to the position, provided it comes in before this Friday or by next Tuesday at the latest. It will be more valid if AUDUSD declines more, bounces off the lower channel line and then continues its decline picking up from 0.93. The next 6 days will be critical to the AUDUSD as in the past we see how this pair usually deviates from its direction only to pick up the original direction from the NFP release day. The way I see it.. if Aussie retraces to 0.93 before NFP release then it comes in line with the overall view. A drop to 0.912 regions and then pick up from NFP day (unless NFP is 'Extremely' bullish, which includes bullish revision to the past, better than expected jobs and unemployment rate).
by justatrader
AUDUSD Fundamental & Technical Chart - April 2014So after a bullish unemployment data, the Aussie hit a high resistance level and is dropping lower. There are some important observations to bear in mind. 1. This could be a possible Cup & Handle formation we could be looking at. (Represented by the blue channel lines sloping down). Its still early, but this pattern is worth keeping an eye on. 2. Price quickly dropped from what looks like a retracement to Nov'13 unemployment day price action. 3. Downside moves likely to be supported near 0.93 (apprx) followed by 0.91. 4. 0.91 region to be watched closely as we can 'expect' price to find support here and then rally back up... but that comes later (closer to NFP release) 5. Notice that Aussie seems to set its direction after NFP release. So this warns us that the moves Aussie is making could be fake and NFP could set the real direction for AUDUSD. That said, if NFP comes out bullish (incl. upward revision to last month's numbers) we can expect price action to head lower.
by justatrader
4