Ultra Short Term and Mid Term view of NATURAL GAS NG UNGTickers: NG1!, UNG
Short term view: We are finding weak support at $4.90 level on NG, or $17.50 on UNG.
We are in overall BEAR BIAS MARKET (even with the short term uptrend in the larger equities and bond market) so we will retain the retracement from the SELLERS perspective.
We find a strong case to take profit at $5.20 (NG1!) or $18.15 (UNG)
TP1: $5.20 (NG1!) / $18.15 (UNG)
TP2: $5.35 (NG1!) / $18.80 (UNG)
There is a possibility if the market exuberance continues, we can consider a mid-term view of NG
MIDTERM VIEW :
SHORT TERM VIEW:
UNG
LNG Natural Gas Energy Play LongAMEX:LNG
LNG having trended down with the fall in the price of natural gas is now sitting in the support zone.
I anticipate an up-trending retracement to potentially as up as the resistance zone.
Rising relative volume and rising relative strength lend support to a reversal as does
the consolidation in the price of natural gas after a recent fall.
As a swing long trade the stop loss is below the support zone with the first target of about $ 160 or a 50% retracement
and the final target at $ 167 before resistance.
$UNG: Next leg up in Nat Gas pricesI think we may see a rapid advance in Nat Gas here, the technical setup in $UNG paves the way for a 18.4:1 reward to risk potential trade. I'm long equity here, but you could trade this with options, or an equivalent fund in the EU or UK (if you're EU based). Futures or options on futures are also an option, but more complicated to execute with maximum efficiency. I suggest you explore this if you're more experienced, and able to determine which strategy to use to maximize RR and performance vs capital allocated to this idea.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
XNGUSD ready to reverse recent downtrend LONGGLOBALPRIME:XNGUSD
XNGUSD a few weeks back downtrended afer breaking the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern down to
the support of a double bottom formed in early August. Volume profiles are added to the 30 minute chart.
I see an uptrend retracement of the recent downtrend and accordingly the following:
Stop Loss at 7.64 just below the recent swing low
Target 1 8.59 the bottom of the high volume areas and near the Fib 0.382
Target 2 8.84 just under the Fib 0.50
Target 3 9.15 just under the POCs of the volume profiles and the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern.
Fundamentals: decreasing DXY will cause a relative rise in commodities; winter is coming storage of compressed NG
is underway and increasing demand.
All is all, this forex pair is ready for a long trade.
Nat gas back to the 5'sFirst wave looks finished and now the C part of the ABC looks like it has started. Expect a swift move down to 5.50 (lower weekly BB area), but I think it would be a long term buy from there. Keep in mind however, there is steep monthly bear divergence now on this chart and the possibility that this is a long term top must be kept in mind. Either way, 5.50 should act as support in both cases.
BOIL beginning a round bottom reversal LONGAMEX:BOIL
BOIL a triple leveraged ETF based on natural gas as a commodity and its futures
on the 15-minute chart has begun a round bottom reversal into an uptrend. The AO / Candle indicator
confirms this as does the curve of the accumulation /distribution indicator. Fundamentally, natural gas price
is rising especially with the DXY dollar value in a mild correction. Winter heating season is upcoming and the energy
crisis in Europe accelerating with Russia shutting down ( for now only ?) its remaining active pipeline.
Right now long BOIL looks to be an excellent setup.
$NFG gas industry leader near breakoutNational Fuel Gas Co l is a diversified energy organization headquartered in Western New York that operates an integrated collection of natural gas and oil assets across four business segments: exploration and production, pipeline and storage, gathering, and utility.
The stock is in a confirmed uptrend and has formed a cup & handle with a buy point at $73.
Investors Business Daily gives a Relative Strength rating of 92 and Ranks the stock first in its industry.
AMEX:UNG had a really bad day yesterday which could affect NYSE:NFG and the rest of the industry.
I'll let the price guide me. If it breakouts with heavy volume I'll buy. If not, then I won't buy. Simple.
BOIL Leverage 3X Natural Gas ETF Cup and Handle LONG AMEX:BOIL
BOIL is showing a cup and handle pattern at present
lending increased probability of a bullish continuation
that could yield a 50% price rise over the 45-day width of
the cup. Macro and fundamental factors support ongoing
natural gas price escalations including the supply issues
in Europe, the heat wave from climate change causing
and so on. The cup and handle on a relatively long time
frame increases both its reliability and the time period
for which the pattern to play out.
Commodities are back, $UNG near breakoutThe natural gas ETF is forming a cup & handle with pivot buy at $31.60. This behavior signals a comeback for stocks in the gas industry.
Some of them are NASDAQ:NFE , which I was stopped out in June. NYSE:VET and AMEX:LNG . These 4 are in the top of my watchlist.
All are in confirmed uptrends and leading the sector. Several oil stocks also look good but I think that they are just following the gas stocks. I say this as the oil ETF AMEX:USO isn't as near of a new high as AMEX:UNG .
Look for stocks with gas exposure.
BOIL / GUSH RATIO- Leverage 3X Natural Gas ETFsAMEX:BOIL
BOIL is the #X leveraged ETF for Natural Gas while KOLD is it inverse.
On this 30M chart I setup the ration between BOIL and KOLD.
This is to find precise swing entries without a lot of work for those only trading part time like myself.
At the highs, BOIL has peaked relative to KOLDAccordingly, this is the time to exit BOIL and enter a position
on KOLD. Conversely, when the ratio is at an inflection bottom, a trader should exit KOLD
and enter a BOIL position.
This chart shows several patterns including:
a double or triple top which may breakdown as there is a newer cup and handle potentially breaking
out above the handle in continuation of the prior uptrend. It the present chart, the Bollinger Band basis line
the uptrending of its boundaries and the MACD all favor the probability of an uptrend., the spot markeri
All in all, I am waiting to buy BOIL since natural gas is being liquified and shipped to Europe to
make electric power to supply to air conditioner for the long hot summer. XNGUSD has had dramatic
action in the past couple of months, all good for BOIL's price action.
Three evening stars or three-bar plays marked with red down arrows.
If not in a position at present, the chart should be observed for the cup and handle pattern completion
towards a resumption of the uptrend. IF so, a BOIL position could be entered.
If it fails the triple top controls the price action and
a KOLD position could be entered.
This chart demonstrates the importance of looking for patterns to help guide
higher probability setup.
$RRC, cup & handle with a explosion gap pivot play Range Resources Corp is in the exploration and production of AMEX:USO and AMEX:UNG in the US.
It was recentlty feature in IBD and got me interested because its good looking cup & handle. Today managed to breakout with a gap. This gap should act as resistance.
As the market still needs to prove itself, I won't buy this breakout but the breakout from today's high with a stop loss just below yesterday's high. This strategy is called Explosion Gap Pivot. It uses the gap range as support.
$NGAS: Natural gas can go 90% higher from hereIt's clear Nat Gas can gain traction fast here, I'm long since yesterday, via $UNG shares. Looking to add an options position here, since weekly charts are now bullish, I pre-emptively took a trade based on a daily signal, speculating on the weekly and eventually monthly kicking off. I commented about it in the Key Hidden Levels chatroom here and offered it to my clients as a signal as well.
With last night's shelling of a nuclear plant, escalation seemed likely, and the next step could be to enact sanctions on natural gas exports, which could deal a blow to supply and create a dramatic move to the upside as a side effect. Fundamentals aside, reward to risk and probability are on our side, so it's a good idea to get some decent exposure here.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
UNG - why didn't I dare to buy?UNG is really a leader that has fundamental reasons to be one.
But let's look at it technically- It was a inverted head and shoulders.
And there was an attempt to break the shoulder, but we got a strong reaction.
Was it possible to start a position there? I think it really MUST have been.
So, the price is gone, let's wait for more setups.
Energy stocks & commodities basing for coming reversal?Using XLE to represent the sector, it appears to be forming a "W" pattern, which could morph into an IH&S reversal pattern, but it still needs a little more time. Green zone is general support, and probable good intermediate term buying opportunity, maybe lasting into the end of the year. Pink boxes are gaps I would expect to be filled before reversal manifests.
UNG (Natgas) defying the ST trend in the energy marketsNatty has been dancing to the beat of its own drum lately while oil, uranium and xle components have been struggling. Elliott Wave is a tool I often use, but I still consider it esoteric in nature, and often difficult to read, so, reader beware. So, while the bottom may be in for Natty, at recent support just under 18, I suspect a re-test is coming, as well as a possible, even if unlikely, gap fill around 14.
Long Natural GasNatural Gas futures have retraced the 2022 bull trend to a 50% Retracement Level at 6.60. Price needs to hold this level or else it risks giving up the 2022 trend.
This trade was prompted by a 30 minute timeframe Spike Alert this morning that pegged the broader trend level and sets up a low risk test. Stop alert below the morning low and an initial target a Retrace of the move down.
Some D****** members chose AMEX:BOIL to express the trade (more volatility for more gains) and I chose AMEX:UNG as the vehicle.