Natgas - head and shoulders needs to break neckline$2.6 is the neckline, if it breaks look for the .618 Fib level at $2.34 . Warm weather in the major centers like NYC and LA , also La Nina weather system this winter. KOLD is the stock to short NG or buy UNG puts. I think UNG goes to $2, GL!
UNG
UNGPossible scenario for UNG. I have no position. I bot an option based on what someone told me it would do earlier this month and I lost my $25 (🤣🤣🤣 That never happens!!) Anyway, I'm thinking about revenge trading it so I started looking at it closer. Not really positive this is a broadening wedge.
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Oversold, Roll into January ContractNatural gas futures NG moved higher as it started rolling into January contract on Nov 20. Technical conditions are oversold on 4 hr chart. We have an unfilled gap at $3.1 level, a possible target for an upside move. Weather forecasts into early December are less bearish than last week, but still alternate shots of cold air with periods of warming.
Next week EIA report is expected to be on a bullish side, a draw of about 20 Bcf, as demand exceeded supply for the period ending Nov 18. Expecting a gradual move to higher prices, unless weather forecasts change showing more cold temperatures coming.
Collapse in Natural Gase (UNG), Further Declines AheadOur bullish declining wedge broke today foreshadowing further loses and declines in UNG. I advised all prospective and speculative day traders to wait until their was a clear sign up and no to pre-empt the trend because the collapse through support could mean further loses to eight and some change (I've drawn in the new lower support level). Let's keep an eye on it but the large declining wedge from 2016 I don't think has finished playing out. An ETF to play with further declines is symbol KOLD.
Will the bullish declining wedge hold for Natural Gas (UNG)?I've been doing well watching this bounce back and forth in this triangle, but now the moment of reckoning has arrived. About 30% of the time these wedges don't follow their pattern and breakdown and this might too. We have to watch very closely but if it moves up it could be good for all of us!!
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Looking for Support NG: Natural gas NG contract may find its support at $2.6 level before moving higher into January contract. Prices dropped on warmer weather forecast Nov 18 -Dec 2. From technical perspective, NG is approaching oversold condition on 4 Hr chart. Lower prices are still possible due to bearish EIA report on Nov 19, as built is expected on the backdrop of low demand through November 20. However, roll into January contract Nov 22 - 25 may provide support for this transition into colder temperatures starting first week of December. Should NG start rolling into January as early as November 19, the dip may not be a slow as expected due to warm weather.
Looks like UNG is on sale today.Buys some AMEX:UNG for a quick bounce. No particular reason. Looks over sold. Don't forget to sell on an up day
Massive Descending Triangle in Natural Gas (UNG)Additionally there's a breakdown of a bear flag which I noticed several months ago but at the same time it looks like a declining bull flag has been created!! We will continue to short UNG until the lower limits where we anticipate a bullish reversal.
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas testing support before moving higherFundamentals remain bullish. NG Natural gas futures are getting ready for December roll. November contract made a rally up to $3.1 on Wednesday and now is testing support at $2.97 - $2.95 level. A three dollar price level needs some digestion. To break above $3.2 December price will require support from colder weather forecasts and higher LNGs. Rise in seasonal demand is confirmed by weather forecasts for the second half of November and into December - January. Last week in October forecast has now turned colder predicting high national demand for the next week (NatGasWeather). Supply/demand balance is tightening. LNGs are at 8-8.5 bcf/d with expectations to increase to 10 bcf/d within the next a couple of weeks.
Technicals are pointing toward a pullback before the roll begins and prices move higher. Currently, support for November contract is seen at $2.97-$2.95 level. Even if lower prices are seen on Friday, the dip may represent a buying opportunity before the roll.
NATURAL GAS EXPLOSIVE ACCUMULATIONNatural gas has been under pressure for quite some time. As a whole, the energy sector has been beaten down severely and is historically cheap. I do not believe this will last. We can certainly have another big drop and even take out March lows but I wouldn't count on it. There are some BIG BIG BIG changes heading our way and we will look back on these days and regret not paying closer attention to energy.. Look at what's cheap.. look at what's expensive.
BTW, we're at a critical junction here. There's a 3x hidden bear divergence that has been respected on weekly timeframe. I think this could push price lower. I sure hope so. But big picture is wildly explosive.
here's a chart on XLE to XLK (energy compared to tech). What do you think is the better deal?
Holiday GasNatural Gas continues to show a build up of bullish price action.
Linked below is a previous analysis on the winter contracts showing the target hit DEAD on. Being that winter is not here yet, it's very possible this pattern continues to play out to the upside.
First.
The most recent weather outlook now points to December being the coldest month which means the January contract is in focus. On the daily chart the price action continues to knock on the ceiling of resistance with several key indicators all flashing bullish signals.
1. Support at the 50 EMA
2. RSI breakout
3. MACD above zero with room to run
Targets.
The fibbonaci extensions map out objective targets. A big enough cold blast could easily send prices to the $4.20 level by Christmas. Which happens to line up almost perfectly with a macro fibonacci retracement from the 2018 highs to the 2020 lows.
Are you bullish yet?
Taking a step back looking at the weekly chart it looks even more bullish bouncing off both EMAs. My buy signal will be a break above the top of this weekly candle at 3.435 with a stop below last weeks candle.
Trading is risky and should not be attempted by anyone.
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Upside Potential vs. Bearish WeatherNatural gas NG is getting ready to roll into higher priced December contract, Oct 25-29. The upside potential on a roll is $3.2 price level vs. current $2.8. However, weather forecast is bearish for the rest of the week and into early November. LNGs are higher at 8 bcf/d, but Cameron facility and Sabine pass are still blocked and expected to stay that way for the next a couple of weeks. NGI predicts trough in demand later this week. NatGasWeather predicts low national demand Tue -Fri on warming in high consumption areas. November contract may dip toward expiration.
Technical Indicators: MACD chart has formed a double bottom pointing to higher prices. RSI has potential for a move higher, but may also form an island top with a dip lower before going higher, should traders react negatively to bearish weather forecast for end of October - beginning of November.
The Volume bars on a price chart (see circle on top chart) showed limited buying at $2.8 level. Support for November contract is seen at around $2.7 level. Some analysts see support at $2.595 - $2.572 levels, should weather models lose TDDs later in October.
Higher prices on Monday afternoon were supported by cold shot over Plains and Rockies and trader optimism.
Spooky GasTime to start looking for another spooky Halloween trade as the latter half of October brings in cold temps.
Prices are now sitting near historically supportive levels and bullishly above the 200 week EMA, with the 50 curling up.
A closer look at the 4hr chart shows prices are coiling up with the RSI in buying territory.
Buying here.
Targets 2.8 to 3.08
Longer term we can also see the Winter contracts are consolidating at the 50% retracement and the next targets would be the 61.8% and possibly the 78% level. Remember, December has been a "warmer than normal" month the last couple years so if this repeats there should be a nice pullback to take advantage of next month.
NG:UNG:BOIL: Natural Gas Futures testing supportNatural gas prices are testing support zone at $2.6-2.5. Price retracement on lighter US demand this week. However, LNG flows are back up to 7 bcf/d and are expected to keep increasing to 10 bcf/d later in October and November - December (NGI). Seasonal demand is expected to improve within the next 2 weeks. A cold shut this weekend, if confirmed, may change price action to bullish.
Breakout in Natural Gas - UNGI've been following a declining wedge in UNG for sometime and we just had a breakout! I really like this sign (so far) as its also coincided with a lower support limit so we might be able to ride this for some time!!
NG, not Coal. Thanks!The big question is what is going on with Nat Gas this year???
The December(Z) contract is still coiling up in a wedge pattern and about to reveal the answer.
A closer look at the bullish scenario...
It's looking technically hopeful with the 200 Week EMA, $3.00 level, and the bottom of the wedge all lining up.
Now the bearish scenario...
The RSI could actually be showing that the strength of this trend is toast and it's possible the MACD is over-extended. It would be a good idea to keep a close watch for the whole thing to fall apart, just as bulls are piling in for an anticipated leg up.
As of now I'll be looking to buy December(Z) again around $3.00 if a bounce is confirmed and it remains within the wedge pattern.
Well, that was all I needed!I was expecting an uptick but not quite to the degree that we saw yesterday, it was very impressive. I'm expecting a march towards the overhead resistance's shown in the near term. Long-term I'm still bullish on natural gas.
New Upleg for Natty Gas?We had our first green candle in a while after I called an intermediate top after the breakout a couple of weeks ago. We are still in a strong uptrend and the turn yesterday (despite opening down over 2% at the open) is a bullish sign. Today I am looking for a confirmation signal or one in the coming days.
NG Halloween Trick or TreatToday the November(X) contract for Natural Gas corrected down to the historically significant $2.50 level. Going back a couple years it is clear that prices tend to hangout above $2.75 so right now prices are undervalued.
Buying here.
+1 @ $2.53
Natural Gas Downtrend ContinuesI still love it. Seriously. But I have to wait and you can see why - the stochastic indicators have only turned up on the daily time frame and we are now caught in this downtrend channel. I've show the lower limit which will hopefully hold, but I would be reluctant taking bearish bets on natural gas from here on in.
