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UNG

Natural Gas - The Girl Who Hopes You Remember HerSince the end of February, and more accurately mid-March, the volatility on Natural Gas has all but disappeared. This is a good thing if you're bullish, because it's both consolidation and indicates accumulation. It's also a good thing from a sentiment/narrative perspective because everyone has all but forgotten trying to gamble on BOIL. Moreover, it's strange for Natural Gas to trade so cheaply in light of the situation with the conflict between NATO and Vladimir Putin and how it impacts both China and Xi Jinping and Europe. I've said in many of my previous natural gas calls that $10 wasn't the top. And if that supposition is true, the fact that we're trading at such an enormous discount for so long is really notable. Just look how big the discount is on the monthly: One of the core tenants of 2023's thus far price action being a likely bottom is that Natty has swept out the $2 mark twice, the last time in April. Since, it's then made a series of higher lows and now looks certain to make higher highs. Moreover, on the weekly we see any red bars are continually traded through to the upside by the MM. All of this comes while the algorithm has been playing around the December of 2020 monthly pivot. The fact that $2 has been protected so strictly and that the high of the year was set at only $3, which it touched for only a day, a Friday, to start March tells us that the target is more likely to be up than it is to be down. It is very hard for me to tell you if Natty is going to do $3.2, $3.5, $4, or $4.5. It may just double top at $3 and then go back to $1.8. What I can say is that getting over $4 ought to have a high degree of resistance. However, if the algs push it through, it's going to take off and take off in a hurry. One thing that is true is that you really should not be bearish on energy. I also believe that the Nasdaq in specific is about to correct so violently that it's going to set a new low. We may be in a scenario right now where we see something like: Equities correct USD up Energy up Metals up 10Y yield up VIX up Instead of the usual everything down and everything up all at once shenanigans. The world is running out of energy. Oil is not a bear market. Worldwide and US production peaked in 2018 and hasn't come back. A lot of the "oil" that is included in daily production numbers isn't actually crude oil but is "natural gas liquids" and other lesser substances. In a climate where mankind is using more and more electricity and temperatures are getting hotter and hotter, there is no reason to believe that natural gas should stay this cheap. How hot will July, August, and September be in North America? Natural gas _is_ electricity. It's also plastics. It's also what the places that get winter use to fuel their furnaces to stay alive. Are you really expecting $1.50?
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by LordWrymouth
25
Using volatility for income trades - UNG 59% ivNatural Gas and other commodities offer alternatives to main show which is the stock market indices. The spx sp500 is currently offering very low volatility premiums because its been trending higher in smooth way, and put sellers have crushed premium there. UNG etf offers an alternative potential opportunity for me since premium is high enough and its already had a nasty sell off for months since fall of 2022. With headlines of hot summers and potential higher energy use, Im comfortable nibbling at premium trades in UNG.
AMEX:UNGLong
by optionfarmers
1
BOIL- Go Long SetupBOIL has had a busy month with the resurgence of natural gas prices and the reverse split six trading days ago. I analyze it as having further upside. On the 30-minute chart I have added two anchored VWAPs to the left on separate pivot points. This serves to make out dynamic support and resistance. Price has crossed over the mean VWAP zone which is between the heavy black lines. In confluence with that, it has crossed over the POC line of the volume profile represents the price point with the highest total trading volume over the visible time interval. Above price are the two targets being one and two standard deviations above the mean aVWAP. The volume indicator shows increasing relative volume overall as a sign of accumulation which generally results in price appreciation from the demand trend. I will set the stop loss at $.10 below the POC line and take a long position. One third of the position will come off upon each target advancing the stop loss to above the entry and making the trade risk-free. Another third with TP2 and finally the The remaining third will run on a trailing stop so I do not spend time micromanaging a smaller position. I believe that my overall bullish bias will be rewarded yet again over the near term.
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
Natural Gas Due for a move to upsideI believe natural gas is respecting the support trendline quite strongly and as long as this trendline is held I am long on gas. One thing is for sue, we are much closer to the bottom than ever before... it is amazing that NATGAS is now worthless! too much production and storage has contributed to this freefall (not to mention that I believe it is highly manipulated). At some point the producers will cut production to balance their costs...
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by GoatOfWallStreet
10
NatGas Gold Silver Forecast | QQQ Market Analysis- Natural Gas stock slight red flag today - Natural Gas NatGas bull break above resistance today with no bull follow through and came below the resistance. - Gold & Silver Stock Falling Wedge Guide. - Silver is outperforming Gold and if silver weakens more Gold would likely break bearish through the falling wedge. - QQQ needs to confirm a hourly downtrend before we can have more confidence that the daily lower high is set. So far bulls played defense and we are still in a hourly uptrend.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ArcadiaTrading
BOIL Day Trade Recap and ReviewBOIL the 3x Leveraged ETF of natural gas futures has been highly volatile. Volatility yields high profits if there are good entries and trade management. This past Friday BOIL was doing a reverse split ( 20 shares become one) which I considered to be an opportunity for high profit because a higher number of traders would have eyes on the chart. The 15-minute chart is shown here with an anchored VWAP from 2 days earlier. At market open price reversed a downtrend after the reverse split in the premarket. It got support from the line one standard deviation below the mean VWAP. My first considered entry was the second green HA candle in the reversal with a stop loss at the pivot low of the red candles. However I passed on this entry and instead entered upon price crossing the mean VWAP. The entry was supported by the indicators showing Z score and volatility. The entry was made more precise by analysis on the 5-minute chart. The stop loss was set at the value of the close of the last candle to close below VWAP. After that, trade management was routine. Every time price went up 1% I raised the stop loss by the same amount until getting up 6% Once at that level, I changed to a trailing stop loss of 2% so I could pay attention to other trading chores. At the same time, I set an alert for when the price crossed to above two standard deviations above the mean anchored VWAP. I did this because this is the overvalued overbought area where institutional traders will set sell orders either short selling or closing profitable trades. The resultant reversal would diminish my unrealized profits. In this case, I got the alert and closed the position without the trailing loss. The trade resulted in a profit of 12% without use of leverage or margin other than the leverage imbedded in BOIL inself.
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
BOIL a scalp trade LONGBOIL had trended down from a high about May 19 until June 2nd when it reversed and gained for one week before resuming its trend down. This can be seen on the half hour chart. The The attached RS indicator shows the decreasing strength trending down from 65 to 40 over the past few trading days. Upon drawing trendline support and resistance. I note that a descending or falling wedge pattern is evident. This is a bullish chart pattern predictive of a price action reversal. A volume profile is added to the chart showing the highest volume of trading at the POC line corresponding to a price of $2.58. I will trade a long trade on BOIL by way of a buy stop at $ 2.59 with a stop loss at $2.57. The target will be the top of the high volume area of the volume profile @ $2.74. This trade will risk $0.02 compared with a potential profit of $ 0.15 yielding a reward to risk of 7.5. As it turns out, I did this exact same trade this past Wednesday June 7rh. Besides 100 shares I will buy one call option striking $2.50 with an expiration of 6/30 to leverage the trade.
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
41
UNG continues to rise UNG the ETF that tracks natural gas futures has continued on a significant uptrend since June 1st The 2H chart suggests to be that the trend will continue this upcoming week. UNG is now above the POC line of the long multi-session volume profile. UNG has had support from the VWAP line representing two standard deviations below the mean. In recent days, price has crossed that mean VWAP in a sign of bullish momentum. The volatility oscillator indicator is showing bullish volatility while the RSI is high above 80 and staying there without any fade to suggest bearish divergence. Overall, I will continue to run my position without any partial take profit. My target is the VWAP line that is two standard deviations above the mean anchored VWAP and so presently about 7.85. Any new trade would have the same target while setting the stop loss just below the POC line.
AMEX:UNGLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
Is KOLD getting chilled out ?KOLD's trend down may be continuing. They say weather climate conditions are for things heating up. this trader concurs albeit from one of the traditional hottest places in the entire USA and so with that bias come hell or bitter winter chill. On the chart, a persistent trend down for KOLD underneath the Ichimoku cloud of the Luxalgo indicator is easily seen. Luxalgo's Bollinger Band oscillator shows that price is riding down along the lower BB band without any outlook for a reprive. Furthermore, price is well below the high volume area of the volume profile and in the lowermost bands of the anchored VWAP. On the MACD indicator, the MACD and signal are both trending down and well below zero. In short, the value of KOLD is crashing down. Any traders long are best to consider liquidating while any value remains. I am not long KOLD and happily continue my long positions in BOIL, the inverse of it until analysis dictates otherwise.
AMEX:KOLDShort
by AwesomeAvani
BOIL Natural Gas Price Recover and ReverseBOIL on the 2H chart has bottomed and begun the reversal as this leveraged natural gas fund sees a red to green in the HA candles as well as the volume. Price has crossedover the POC line of the long-term volume profile and exploded from a Doji candle below the mean anchored VWAP with consecutive engulfing bullish candles. The Luxalgo AI predictive indicator suggests a parabolic move higher and a correction in the first part of next week. I have already profited 700% on this trade that I have been in since my earlier idea on BOIL. I will add to the position now but be watchful for a reversal of the reversal while watching a volatility indicator to set the exit.
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
163
UNG Natural Gas ( Unleveraged) ETF LongOn the 4 hour chart- UNG had a head and shoulder pattern in May from which it descended in a gradual fashion from May 25 to June 2nd and then reversed upward. The reversal occurred at two standard deviations below the mean anchored VWAP and so deep in the oversold area. Price has crossed over the higher VWAP line and so is in the band between the mean VWAP and one standard deviation below it. Volumes have been persistent. Importantly, the zero lag MACD shows the lines in parallel and crossing the zero horizontal line from underneath. I see UNG properly set up for a long trade. Fundamentally, the hot summer may bring increased natural gas consumption to make electricity for air conditioning. The dam disaster in Ukraine may close down the biggest nuclear plant in Europe because of cooling lakes potentially compromised. Natural gas may be an alternative fuel to make electricity. Compressed NG from the US may become more important to Europe, especially since the Nordic Stream pipeline issue developed. All in all, I think natural gas prices are likely to rise.
AMEX:UNGLong
by AwesomeAvani
3
Natural Gas: 1.618 Confluence Support Zone Has Held Natural Gas was trading at this Log/Linear 1.618 Confluence Zone for a while and even confirmed a 3 white soldiers pattern from the zone, but has since been very quiet. However, it's recently begun to bring us somewhat of a bounce and has confirmed a couple of higher lows with some hidden Bullish Divergence on the MACD after holding above the Bullish Control Zone on the RSI and now it's looking to make some higher highs and could take back the entire range. It should also be noted that this 1.618 confluence zone is at the PCZ of a 1.13 Bullish Shark.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by RizeSenpai