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UnitedHealth Group ($UNH) Faces Surge in Medical CostsUnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:UNH ), one of the largest health insurers in the United States, reported a 3% drop in share price following its Q3 2024 earnings report. The company's results highlighted an uptick in medical costs as it grapples with challenges in its insurance business, including lower government payments and persistently high healthcare demand. Let’s break down the key aspects driving the stock's recent performance. Elevated Costs and Earnings Beat UnitedHealth's Q3 2024 results showed a significant rise in its medical loss ratio (MLR)—the percentage of premiums used to cover medical costs. The MLR rose to 85.2%, exceeding both last year’s figure (82.3%) and analysts’ expectations of 84.2%. This surge in costs is attributed to an increase in healthcare services under Medicare plans, particularly for individuals aged 65 and older, as postponed procedures from the COVID-19 pandemic catch up. Additionally, turnover in Medicaid has left insurers with a sicker patient base, further elevating costs. Despite these challenges, UnitedHealth delivered an adjusted profit of $7.15 per share, beating Wall Street estimates by 15 cents. The company's revenues hit $100.8 billion, surpassing the $99.28 billion expected by analysts, thanks to strong growth in its healthcare services businesses under Optum and insurance offerings under UnitedHealthcare. Key highlights: - Optum Health revenue grew by $2.1 billion, driven by the expansion of value-based care and in-home patient services. - Optum Rx, the company’s pharmacy services division, saw revenue growth of $5.4 billion, fueled by new clients and expanded pharmacy offerings. - Medicare and Medicaid pressures persisted, with the company facing government funding reductions and a sicker Medicaid population due to eligibility redeterminations. While the overall financial performance was positive, the rise in medical costs and increased demand for healthcare services, particularly from Medicare and Medicaid plans, weighed on investor sentiment, contributing to the drop in stock price. Technical Outlook: Bearish Signs Emerge On the technical front, NYSE:UNH stock has entered a bearish trend following the earnings report, and it is currently down 3.54% in Tuesday’s pre-market trading. On Monday, the stock saw a 1.60% gain but quickly reversed as the negative aspects of the earnings report began to dominate market sentiment. The stock has broken below its symmetrical triangle pattern, confirming a bearish continuation pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was 66 on Monday, indicating the stock was approaching overbought territory. However, the sharp decline in pre-market trading has relieved some of this pressure. If the bearish momentum continues, the RSI could dip below 50, signaling further downside potential. Immediate support lies at $530, the base of the triangle pattern, where the stock may find some consolidation. The stock is currently hovering around its 50-day. A break below these levels could reinforce the bearish sentiment and signal further downside to come. What Can Investors Expect? From a fundamental perspective, UnitedHealth's revenue growth and earnings beat show that the company remains a leader in the healthcare sector, with its Optum businesses continuing to drive profitability. However, the elevated medical costs, particularly related to Medicare and Medicaid, could be a persistent headwind. Regulatory changes or adjustments in Medicaid enrollment could also add to volatility in the coming quarters. On the technical side, the break below the triangle pattern is a bearish signal, and further downside toward the $530 support level seems likely if sentiment does not improve. Investors should watch for signs of consolidation at these levels or a potential breakdown, which could push the stock even lower. Conclusion UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: NYSE:UNH ) remains a strong company with a diverse portfolio spanning insurance and healthcare services. However, its near-term outlook is clouded by rising medical costs, Medicare funding challenges, and Medicaid enrollment fluctuations. Technically, the stock is in a bearish phase, but key support levels could provide opportunities for long-term investors if the stock consolidates or rebounds.
NYSE:UNHShort
by DEXWireNews
UNITED HEALTH forming a bottom.United Health (UNH) gave an excellent dip buy opportunity last time (March 29, see chart below), with the price even breaking above the long-term Resistance Zone eventually: The price has since entered a Channel Up pattern with the price now below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), having already topped and attempting to form a new Higher Low at the bottom of the pattern. Like the previous one in June, this bottoming process can take another 3 weeks, so we will time it accordingly and target 675.00 (+21.00% rise, similar to both previous Bullish Legs). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:UNHLong
by TradingShot
ALERT! Healthcare Stocks? $UNH 70% decline! Sub $200 possible. I've been watching and keeping this quiet for a while now and I am now extremely confident of this trade. NYSE:UNH headed for the dumps as technicals show signs of a 70% decline ahead in the next year. This is a developing trade and I do not have any news to support this drop however, I am certain. The Weekly is currently in a bear flag the same exaact way. After a huge run, UNH looks to be running out of steam. The RSI matches around 70 on the 10D timeframe and the MACD is also coming from a negative area into bullish territory, yet the bearish divergence is clear imo. I will be glady entering long puts up here. I will continuously update this trade. See you Next year. Use this chart as a reference to current chart.
NYSE:UNHShort
by TazmanianTrader
UnitedHealth (UNH) Share Price Surges after Strong ReportUnitedHealth (UNH) Share Price Surges after Strong Report UnitedHealth shares surged Tuesday, rising more than 5% after the health care giant delivered stronger-than-expected first-quarter 2024 results: → earnings per share: actual = USD 6.91, expected = USD 6.61, last quarter = USD 6.16; → gross income: actual = USD 94.4 billion, expected = USD 92.1 billion. UnitedHealth CEO Andrew Whitty said health care costs rose sharply last year, and he attributed much of the rise to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Also adding positive news to investors was UnitedHealth Group's handling of the Feb. 21 cyberattack on its Change Healthcare subsidiary, which disrupted hospital and pharmacy operations for more than a week and cost an estimated USD 872 million. Technical analysis of the UNH stock chart shows that: → starting in 2022, the price moves within the range between support at USD 450 and resistance at USD 550 per share; → false breakouts of the indicated levels occurred repeatedly; → as a result of the publication of the report, another false breakdown of support was formed at USD 450 per UNH share; → growth after the report occurred with a gap in the area of USD 450-465, which can serve as support; → it is possible that a test of the gap will form on the chart and growth will at least reach the mid-channel level of USD 500 per share. According to analysts surveyed by TipRank, the average price forecast for UMH shares is USD 591.29 in 12 months (more than +25% from the current price). This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NYSE:UNH
by FXOpen
1
UnitedHealth Shares Surge 4.91% on Q1 Earnings UpdateUnitedHealth Group ( NYSE:UNH ), the titan of the health insurance industry, emerged triumphant in the face of daunting challenges as it delivered a stellar performance in its first-quarter earnings update. Despite grappling with a surge in medical payouts and the financial fallout from a crippling cyberattack, UnitedHealth's resilience shone through, propelling its shares to a robust 4.91% surge in early trading. Earnings Beat and Resilience: UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) reported adjusted earnings of $6.91 per share for the first quarter, exceeding Wall Street's expectations by 30 cents. The impressive 10.4% year-over-year growth underscored the company's ability to navigate turbulent waters while maintaining its upward trajectory. Revenue Strength and Optum Dominance: Bolstered by robust revenue figures, UnitedHealth showcased its financial prowess with group revenues surging 8.55% to $99.8 billion. Notably, Optum, the crown jewel of UnitedHealth's empire, saw its revenue soar 22.2% to $61.1 billion, cementing its position as the primary engine of the group's earnings growth. Medical Cost Challenges and Cyberattack Fallout: Amidst the triumph, UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) faced headwinds in the form of rising medical costs, reflected in a nearly 2-percentage-point increase in the medical-cost ratio to 84.3%. Furthermore, the company grappled with the aftermath of the Blackcat cyberattacks, which inflicted an $872 million blow to its Change Healthcare unit. Despite these setbacks, UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) remained steadfast in its commitment to delivering value to its stakeholders. Outlook and Forward Momentum: CEO Andrew Witty reaffirmed UnitedHealth's full-year adjusted earnings forecast, projecting a range between $27.50 and $28 per share. However, the company acknowledged the looming impact of the cyberattack, with potential costs soaring to as high as $1.6 billion for the year. Despite these challenges, Witty emphasized the company's unwavering focus on enhancing customer experiences and driving balanced growth. Market Response and Sector Challenges: The market responded enthusiastically to UnitedHealth's resilience, with shares surging 7.75% in pre-market trading. However, the broader healthcare sector faces mounting pressures, including tepid Medicare Advantage payment increases and regulatory scrutiny on pharmacy-benefit managers. Nonetheless, UnitedHealth's robust performance signals a beacon of hope amidst the industry's tumultuous landscape.
NYSE:UNHLong
by DEXWireNews
UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought UNH before the previous earnings: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 440usd strike price at the money Puts with an expiration date of 2024-4-19, for a premium of approximately $10.65. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NYSE:UNHShort
by TopgOptions
Medicare Advantage Rates Shake Health Insurers:The healthcare sector witnessed a significant upheaval as UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) and other major players tumbled following the Biden Administration's announcement regarding Medicare Advantage rates for 2025. The unexpected decision sent shockwaves through the industry, prompting a flurry of market activity and sparking concerns among investors. Impact on Health Insurers: The Biden Administration's announcement that final Medicare Advantage rates in 2025 will remain unchanged from initial plans in January dealt a blow to major health insurers, particularly UnitedHealth and Humana. Both companies, as leading Medicare Advantage players, experienced substantial declines in their stock prices, with Humana plunging 9.4% and UnitedHealth sinking 4% in premarket trading. Market Response and Investor Sentiment: The market response was swift and decisive, with other health insurers such as CVS Health and Cigna also witnessing notable retreats in their stock prices. CVS Health, a significant Medicare Advantage player, saw its stock retreat by 4% overnight, while Cigna experienced a 1.1% dip early Tuesday. Smaller players in the Medicare Advantage market, including Centene and Molina Healthcare, were not spared from the downturn, reflecting the broad impact of the announcement on the industry. Technical Outlook and Bearish Trend: UnitedHealth's stock is currently entrenched in a bearish trend, underscored by a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 44.88 and trading below its respective Moving Averages (MA). This technical analysis further validates the bearish sentiment surrounding NYSE:UNH stock and highlights the challenges it faces in the current market environment. Implications for the Healthcare Sector: The Biden Administration's decision regarding Medicare Advantage rates in 2025 has far-reaching implications for the healthcare sector, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape and impacting revenue streams for major insurers. As companies navigate this period of uncertainty, strategic agility and resilience will be crucial in mitigating risks and seizing opportunities amidst evolving market dynamics.
NYSE:UNHShort
by DEXWireNews
UNITED HEALTH Time to buy again?Last time we looked into United Health (UNH) we gave a strong buy signal (October 03 2023, see chart below), which turned out to be very successful: After getting rejected on Resistance 3, the stock started to decline structurally within a Channel Down. It is a pattern similar to the Channel Down of November 2022 - March 2023, which was again formed after UNH got rejected within the 2-year Resistance Zone, like it happened this time. There is a high symmetry these past 2 years within the Resistance and Support Zones, so we expect the price to act accordingly. As a result, having already formed a 1D Death Cross, we expect the price to make one last Low towards the Support Zone (as long as the 1D MA50 holds as Resistance) and then rebound, which is what took place on March 10 2023, above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, we will time our buy accordingly and target $517.00 (Fib 0.618). An additional buy signal would be if the 1W RSI makes a Double Bottom, similar again to March 10 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:UNH
by TradingShot
UNH Stock tumble after report of antitrust investigationUnitedHealth Group ( NYSE:UNH ) finds itself navigating turbulent waters as it confronts both regulatory scrutiny and cybersecurity disruptions. The recent revelation of a U.S. Department of Justice antitrust investigation has sent shockwaves through the healthcare conglomerate, causing its shares to plummet by about 5%. This investigation, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, casts a shadow over UnitedHealth's ( NYSE:UNH ) acquisitions made through its health services arm, Optum, raising concerns about potential monopolistic practices and their impact on competition within the healthcare industry. The timing couldn't be more precarious, as UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) grapples with the fallout from a cybersecurity attack on its Change Healthcare unit, which has led to an eight-day outage. The prolonged disruption has not only rattled investor confidence but has also triggered operational challenges for the conglomerate and its partners, including pharmacy chains like CVS Health. Analysts are quick to underscore the significance of these developments. Scott Fidel, an analyst at Stephens, aptly describes it as a "tough past week of headlines for UnitedHealth." The market reaction has been swift and severe, with more than $25 billion wiped out from UnitedHealth's market value, exacerbating losses incurred earlier in the week. The ramifications of the reported antitrust probe extend beyond UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ), casting a shadow of uncertainty over its competitors. Humana and CVS Health, both with aspirations in caregiving akin to UnitedHealth's Optum arm, have witnessed declines in their respective stock prices, signaling investor apprehension about the potential ripple effects of the investigation. Julie Utterback, an analyst at Morningstar, underscores the interconnectedness of the healthcare landscape, suggesting that the investigation could have implications for CVS and Humana, especially if it expands further. The specifics of the investigation delve into the intricate relationships between UnitedHealthcare ( NYSE:UNH ) and Optum, probing into potential conflicts of interest and anti-competitive behaviors. Such scrutiny underscores the complexities inherent in the intersection of insurance and healthcare services, where conglomerates like UnitedHealth wield considerable influence. Meanwhile, Change Healthcare continues to grapple with the aftermath of the cybersecurity incident, with disruptions expected to persist. The impact reverberates across the healthcare ecosystem, affecting not only UnitedHealth but also its partners and clients, including pharmacy chains reliant on its services. As UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) navigates these challenges, stakeholders are left pondering the company's resilience and the broader implications for the healthcare industry. Will regulatory scrutiny force a reassessment of consolidation strategies? Can UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) effectively mitigate cybersecurity risks and restore trust in its operations?
NYSE:UNH
by DEXWireNews
LLY rides its success against obesity and diabetes LONGLLY shown on a daily chart has doubled in the past year with the introduction of new FDA approved drugs into the market. It has but out a series of favorable earnings reports with optimistic realistic guidance and glowing analysts' forecasts. It has done so without any volume pumps and just keeps grinding higher. This is because it is in the shadows of big technology stocks. Revenues consistently beat analysts' forecasts quarter after quarter. Institutions add small lots trying to preserve the price for future buys without any run-ups. I have done the same thing and I will continue to do so. While day trading biotechnology penny stocks, LLY along with UNH, PFE, and AZN is where the profits are parked for growth and compounding.
NYSE:LLYLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
UNH, the dominate health insurance market leader LONGAs shown on the 4H chart, UNH based on a long-term VWAP band setup, it as fiar value for the first time since September. This dip is significant as price fell from a head and shoulders pattern of three months duration. The candles in the past couple of days show the reversal at the mean VWAP support. I have retrieved 60% out of a near term expiration call option. Some may say this is simply a death cross on a pair of moving averages with a bit of correction on the overall downtrend. I understand that point of view. Notwithstanding that perspective, healthcare is expected to be an outperforming sector in 2024. UNH is on sale. As a healthcare provider, it has paid me large sums in the historical past. I will take trades as described in the text box on the chart. I believe buying out of the money and at a discount will be a good strategy for this megacap moving forward.
ULong
by AwesomeAvani
UnitedHealth Group ($UNH) Shakes Investors with 4Q Earnings UnitedHealth Group ( NYSE:UNH ) recently made headlines as it unveiled its fourth-quarter earnings, leaving investors with mixed sentiments. While the numbers beat estimates, concerns over rising medical costs and future pricing strategies have cast a shadow on the stock's performance. This article delves into the intricacies of NYSE:UNH 's financial report, analyzes the factors driving its market movement, and examines the outlook for the healthcare giant in the coming quarters. Breaking Down the Numbers: Analysts anticipated fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $5.98 for UNH, reflecting a 12% YoY increase. Surpassing expectations, UNH reported an impressive 15.4% growth in EPS, reaching $6.16 per share. Revenue also outpaced estimates, rising by 14.1% to $94.4 billion. However, the spotlight fell on the medical cost ratio, which climbed to 85 in Q4, exceeding analysts' projections. This ratio, representing the percentage of premiums spent on members' health needs, raised concerns about the sustainability of UNH's profit margins. Factors Driving the Numbers: NYSE:UNH attributed the elevated medical cost ratio to several ongoing factors, including the provision of outpatient care, primarily serving seniors, and the composition of its business mix. The company highlighted that coverage in government programs tended to incur higher costs compared to commercial coverage. Additionally, UNH acknowledged a $100 million unfavorable development in medical reserves during Q4, signaling potential challenges in managing future healthcare costs. Outlook and Pricing Pressure: Despite the strong performance, UNH maintained its full-year EPS guidance of $27.50 to $28, suggesting confidence in its ability to navigate challenges. However, analysts expressed concerns over the unexpected rise in the medical cost ratio, emphasizing the potential impact on pricing strategies in 2024. The company recognized a $100 million unfavorable development in medical reserves during Q4, marking the first negative revision since 4Q16. Analysts believe these details indicate heightened pressure on pricing in the coming years. Stock Market Reaction: Following the earnings release, UNH stock experienced a 3.65% decline to $520 in early Friday market action. The stock had previously shown signs of resilience by climbing 0.4% on Thursday, surpassing its 50-day and 10-week moving averages. Despite a consolidation period dating back to November 2022, UNH has struggled to gain significant momentum since April 2022. The relative strength line, tracking the stock's performance against the S&P 500 index, has been on a downward trend since November 2022. Conclusion: UnitedHealth Group's fourth-quarter earnings report has sparked a nuanced conversation among investors. While the company exceeded EPS and revenue expectations, concerns over the rising medical cost ratio and its impact on future pricing strategies have raised eyebrows. As UNH navigates these challenges, investors will closely monitor how the healthcare giant adapts its business model to maintain profitability in an evolving healthcare landscape.
NYSE:UNH
by DEXWireNews
The Healthcare Sector Index $XLV - Worth Watching SPDR Select Sector Fund – Healthcare Index AMEX:XLV The chart speaks for itself, we have our breakout levels and our break down levels. We enter on a breakout and set a stop 5% under that support and we exit and or short if we fall under the two underside support levels. Below I outline some reasons why the healthcare sector is worth paying attention too. The healthcare industry is worth $808 billion in the United States as of 2021. 65% of the industry’s revenue comes from patient care. The global healthcare industry is worth $12 trillion. In the U.S National health expenditures are projected to grow 5.4 percent, on average, over the course of 2023–31 and to account for roughly 20 percent of the economy by the end of that period. The insured share of the population is anticipated to exceed 92 percent through 2023 (figures pending), in part as a result of record-high Medicaid enrolment, and then decline toward 90 percent as coverage requirements related to the COVID-19 public health emergency expire. The growth of the health-care sector is evident in employment data as well. In 1990, about 8 million Americans worked in health care; that figure has since doubled to 16 million. That’s the largest single employment segment in our economy. In addition to the above, the west in general is an aging populace that is living longer. We will need these services more than we need staples during a recession. I believe this index can help us gauge the healthcare sector and what direction it will go next. We can watch the levels outlines and make a play if we wish. We have a hard upper boundary and lower boundary on a parallel channel on the chart. You know what to do when we breach any of these levels. Outlined on the chart XLV fund provides exposure to companies in pharmaceuticals, health care equipment and supplies, health care providers and services, biotechnology, life sciences tools and services, and health care technology industries. XLV is the oldest in the segment, as such it is used widely for strategic or tactical positions. Since XLV is both cap weighted and fishes only from the S&P 500, it tilts heavily toward mega-caps. For focused exposure to leading health care names, XLV is tough to beat. Top Five Holdings UnitedHealth Group Inc NYSE:UNH 9.63% Eli Lilly and Co NYSE:LLY 9.19% Johnson & Johnson NYSE:JNJ 7.46% Merck & Co NYSE:MRK 5.46% AbbVie Inc 5.41% Stay Healthy and Nimble Folks PUKA
AMEX:XLV
by PukaCharts
UNITED HEALTH rebound on 1D MA50 leading to 610 long term.UNH held yesterday the 1D MA50 and is on a strong 1D candle rebound today. Despite this, the 1D technical outlook is on healthy bullish numbers (RSI = 64.198, MACD = 4.620, ADX = 38.658) as the underlying pattern is a Channel Up since the July 13th low. The stock's most common rise extension is inside the 15.32-15.96% range, which we've seen three times in the last eight months. Consequently we aim at the +15.32% minimum (TP = 610.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYSE:UNHLong
by InvestingScope
UnitedHealth: Last hurdle 🚧Although UnitedHealth shares were able to establish the low of the turquoise wave 4 and rise steadily, they have not yet made it above the resistance level of $546.78. However, we expect this to happen next, leading to the high of the larger wave (A) in dark green. Short-term, we therefore expect further bullish potential, but after the top of this (A) wave, the trend should be clearly downwards again. In addition, there is a 35% probability for our alternative scenario, in which the alternative top of the old wave (A) would have already been deposited.
NYSE:UNHLong
by MarketIntel
UNITED HEALTH Buy signal to complete the Cup pattern.United Health is on a green (1w) candle despite the general market sell-off. This is technically due to the longer term pattern which is shaping up to be a Cup/ Arc, that remains to be seen if at the end of it will give a Handle. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 553.00 (bottom of Resistance Zone 1 which was initially formed on April 11th 2022). Tips: 1. The MACD (1d) is rising with a Bullish Cross last seen in July and despite being bullish over 0.00, it is still underpriced. Please like, follow and comment!!
NYSE:UNHLong
by TradingBrokersView
UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold UNH`s Double Top here: or reentered the Double Bottom: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 530usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2023-10-13, for a premium of approximately $6.40. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:UNHLong
by TopgOptions
UNH's Prescription for Success: Exploring the Surge in UNH StockUNH NYSE Stock: Riding High on a Bullish Run UnitedHealth Group's (UNH) stock on the NYSE is experiencing a remarkable bullish run today. The surge can be attributed to the company's impressive financial performance and its role in the healthcare sector's evolution. UNH's robust earnings, expanding healthcare services, and strategic acquisitions have garnered investor confidence. The growing demand for healthcare services, amplified by pandemic-driven awareness, fuels UNH's ascent. Technical indicators, including Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Averages, confirm the bullish sentiment. As healthcare remains a critical focus globally, UNH is well-positioned to continue its bullish stride, making it a standout in today's market.
NYSE:UNHLong
by DEXWireNews
US30 event risk - a pivotal week of earnings ahead US Q2 earnings this week – Citi, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, UnitedHealth This week we get the US big money centres out with earnings. The focus falls on asset quality, loan growth/contraction, net interest margins (NIM) and any commentary on the recent tightening of broad financial conditions. When we look at the companies included in the US30, there are only two banks (of the 30 constituents) - Goldmans and JP Morgan. However, the US30 holds an incredibly high relationship with the XLF ETF (S&P financial sector ETF), with a 10-day correlation of 93%. With so many of the major financial institutions reporting, assuming this relationship holds up, the US30 should mirror the movement in the US banks. Another important risk for US30 traders this week is how the market reacts to earnings from United Health (UNH - report on 13 October). UNH commands a massive 10% weight on the US30, arguably the biggest weight on the index. UNH is not a stock that CFD traders look at as closely as a say aTesla or Nvidia, given its more defensive price action. It’s one for the range traders, where buying into $460 and shorting into $520 has worked well over the past 12 months. However, given the weighting, US30 traders should be aware of the influence the stock can offer. The market prices an implied move of 2.6% move on the day of UNHs reporting, which is in fitting with the average price change over the past 8 quarterly reporting periods. UNH has seen some large percentage moves over earnings and recall in the last earnings report the stock rallied 7.2% - so a sizeable rally/decline would influence the US30 given the weight. While macro factors such as moves in bond yields, the USD and oil prices will influence the US30, one can see that earnings this week could also play a major role – time to buy the dip, or are we about to see a leg lower in the index?
PEPPERSTONE:US30
by Pepperstone