Crown Castle historically rides much higher; Will it happen now?The full analysis is well worth the read. CCI signaled BUY 2 days ago. The delay in upward movement is between 1-3 days (the median delay is 1 day). We are beginning the third day today which means upward movement should be imminent. Of the 15 times the RSI algorithm has signaled on the daily chart has lead to the stock rising a minimum of 11% over the next 35 trading days. If history holds true, that means the stock could rise to at least 195 which is a significant jump. Of course this may also be the occasion for the stock to move up and the minimum movement be more around the area of just a few percent.
Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 28, 2021 with a closing price of 175.06.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 195.49 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 15.451% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 18.955% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 28.996% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 12 trading bars; half occur within 28 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 32 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
