UnitedHealth Group ($UNH) Faces Surge in Medical CostsUnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:UNH ), one of the largest health insurers in the United States, reported a 3% drop in share price following its Q3 2024 earnings report. The company's results highlighted an uptick in medical costs as it grapples with challenges in its insurance business, including lower government payments and persistently high healthcare demand. Let’s break down the key aspects driving the stock's recent performance.
Elevated Costs and Earnings Beat
UnitedHealth's Q3 2024 results showed a significant rise in its medical loss ratio (MLR)—the percentage of premiums used to cover medical costs. The MLR rose to 85.2%, exceeding both last year’s figure (82.3%) and analysts’ expectations of 84.2%. This surge in costs is attributed to an increase in healthcare services under Medicare plans, particularly for individuals aged 65 and older, as postponed procedures from the COVID-19 pandemic catch up. Additionally, turnover in Medicaid has left insurers with a sicker patient base, further elevating costs.
Despite these challenges, UnitedHealth delivered an adjusted profit of $7.15 per share, beating Wall Street estimates by 15 cents. The company's revenues hit $100.8 billion, surpassing the $99.28 billion expected by analysts, thanks to strong growth in its healthcare services businesses under Optum and insurance offerings under UnitedHealthcare.
Key highlights:
- Optum Health revenue grew by $2.1 billion, driven by the expansion of value-based care and in-home patient services.
- Optum Rx, the company’s pharmacy services division, saw revenue growth of $5.4 billion, fueled by new clients and expanded pharmacy offerings.
- Medicare and Medicaid pressures persisted, with the company facing government funding reductions and a sicker Medicaid population due to eligibility redeterminations.
While the overall financial performance was positive, the rise in medical costs and increased demand for healthcare services, particularly from Medicare and Medicaid plans, weighed on investor sentiment, contributing to the drop in stock price.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Signs Emerge
On the technical front, NYSE:UNH stock has entered a bearish trend following the earnings report, and it is currently down 3.54% in Tuesday’s pre-market trading. On Monday, the stock saw a 1.60% gain but quickly reversed as the negative aspects of the earnings report began to dominate market sentiment.
The stock has broken below its symmetrical triangle pattern, confirming a bearish continuation pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was 66 on Monday, indicating the stock was approaching overbought territory. However, the sharp decline in pre-market trading has relieved some of this pressure. If the bearish momentum continues, the RSI could dip below 50, signaling further downside potential.
Immediate support lies at $530, the base of the triangle pattern, where the stock may find some consolidation. The stock is currently hovering around its 50-day. A break below these levels could reinforce the bearish sentiment and signal further downside to come.
What Can Investors Expect?
From a fundamental perspective, UnitedHealth's revenue growth and earnings beat show that the company remains a leader in the healthcare sector, with its Optum businesses continuing to drive profitability. However, the elevated medical costs, particularly related to Medicare and Medicaid, could be a persistent headwind. Regulatory changes or adjustments in Medicaid enrollment could also add to volatility in the coming quarters.
On the technical side, the break below the triangle pattern is a bearish signal, and further downside toward the $530 support level seems likely if sentiment does not improve. Investors should watch for signs of consolidation at these levels or a potential breakdown, which could push the stock even lower.
Conclusion
UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: NYSE:UNH ) remains a strong company with a diverse portfolio spanning insurance and healthcare services. However, its near-term outlook is clouded by rising medical costs, Medicare funding challenges, and Medicaid enrollment fluctuations. Technically, the stock is in a bearish phase, but key support levels could provide opportunities for long-term investors if the stock consolidates or rebounds.
Unitedhealth
UNITED HEALTH forming a bottom.United Health (UNH) gave an excellent dip buy opportunity last time (March 29, see chart below), with the price even breaking above the long-term Resistance Zone eventually:
The price has since entered a Channel Up pattern with the price now below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), having already topped and attempting to form a new Higher Low at the bottom of the pattern.
Like the previous one in June, this bottoming process can take another 3 weeks, so we will time it accordingly and target 675.00 (+21.00% rise, similar to both previous Bullish Legs).
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Earnings alert: Companies to watch for potential trades this weeAs we step into the second week of the Q1 earnings season, a roster of major financial players is gearing up to unveil their financial reports.
Expect updates from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, American Express, Blackstone, and Charles Schwab.
Additionally, non-financial companies like UnitedHealth, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Netflix, P&G, J&J, and ASML Holding are also slated to release their earnings.
While bank stocks have been outperforming the broader S&P 500 Index in the past six months, the tide may be turning in the first quarter of this year. Despite JPMorgan's announcement of a modest 6% rise in profits on Friday, shares dropped over 5% following the bank's conservative full-year projections for net interest income. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo and Citigroup saw declines in profits.
On Wednesday, eyes will be on Discover Financial Services as it presents its results following the announcement of its acquisition by Capital One in February. And wrapping up the week is American Express, which is set to report after providing strong full-year guidance and increasing its dividend in the last quarter. Blackstone is expected to reveal a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues.
Thursday brings Netflix's report, with the streaming giant aiming to maintain its momentum in subscriber growth. Netflix's management has recently expressed confidence in their growth strategy, emphasizing improvements across all aspects of their platform, the introduction of paid sharing, and the expansion of their advertising offerings.
Consumer product giants Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble will disclose their earnings on Tuesday and Friday respectively, offering insights into whether increased prices are sustaining revenue growth.
Meanwhile, health insurer UnitedHealth Group is set to report on Tuesday amid rumors of an antitrust investigation.
UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought UNH before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 440usd strike price at the money Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-4-19,
for a premium of approximately $10.65.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
UnitedHealth: Recovery? 🩹UnitedHealth shares have now dipped into the green Target Zone between $447.18 and $470.19. This is the price range in which we expect the low of the green wave (B) and thus a reversal. We therefore now expect a rise to above $495.87. At 40%, however, we think it is likely that the price will slip below the zone again and the low of the green wave alt.(B) will end somewhat lower.
UNITED HEALTH Time to buy again?Last time we looked into United Health (UNH) we gave a strong buy signal (October 03 2023, see chart below), which turned out to be very successful:
After getting rejected on Resistance 3, the stock started to decline structurally within a Channel Down. It is a pattern similar to the Channel Down of November 2022 - March 2023, which was again formed after UNH got rejected within the 2-year Resistance Zone, like it happened this time.
There is a high symmetry these past 2 years within the Resistance and Support Zones, so we expect the price to act accordingly. As a result, having already formed a 1D Death Cross, we expect the price to make one last Low towards the Support Zone (as long as the 1D MA50 holds as Resistance) and then rebound, which is what took place on March 10 2023, above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, we will time our buy accordingly and target $517.00 (Fib 0.618). An additional buy signal would be if the 1W RSI makes a Double Bottom, similar again to March 10 2023.
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UnitedHealth: One Last Dip 💦UnitedHealth's share price has fallen sharply in recent weeks. However, it showed a reaction at the support level of $472.12 and has now risen a little. Our expectation is that it is currently working on the magenta wave (Z), the last sub-wave of the green wave (B). As part of this movement, the price should dip below the support level and form a low there. Only then should the price turn around.
UNITED HEALTH rebound on 1D MA50 leading to 610 long term.UNH held yesterday the 1D MA50 and is on a strong 1D candle rebound today. Despite this, the 1D technical outlook is on healthy bullish numbers (RSI = 64.198, MACD = 4.620, ADX = 38.658) as the underlying pattern is a Channel Up since the July 13th low. The stock's most common rise extension is inside the 15.32-15.96% range, which we've seen three times in the last eight months. Consequently we aim at the +15.32% minimum (TP = 610.00).
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UnitedHealth: Last hurdle 🚧Although UnitedHealth shares were able to establish the low of the turquoise wave 4 and rise steadily, they have not yet made it above the resistance level of $546.78. However, we expect this to happen next, leading to the high of the larger wave (A) in dark green. Short-term, we therefore expect further bullish potential, but after the top of this (A) wave, the trend should be clearly downwards again. In addition, there is a 35% probability for our alternative scenario, in which the alternative top of the old wave (A) would have already been deposited.
UNITED HEALTH Buy signal to complete the Cup pattern.United Health is on a green (1w) candle despite the general market sell-off.
This is technically due to the longer term pattern which is shaping up to be a Cup/ Arc, that remains to be seen if at the end of it will give a Handle.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 553.00 (bottom of Resistance Zone 1 which was initially formed on April 11th 2022).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) is rising with a Bullish Cross last seen in July and despite being bullish over 0.00, it is still underpriced.
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UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold UNH`s Double Top here:
or reentered the Double Bottom:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 530usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-10-13,
for a premium of approximately $6.40.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
UNITED HEALTH Mega bullish break-out. ATH next.United Health Group Incorporated (UNH) broke above the Lower Highs trend-line that has been holding since the October 31 2022 All Time High (ATH). That is a major bullish break-out signal alone but has one last short-term Resistance to overcome, Resistance 1 (516.00) which happens to be exactly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
If that Resistance level breaks, we will buy and target Resistance 2 (530.65). Then even though the bullish leg might extend higher, we will only buy after a clear pull-back to the 0.618 Fibonacci and target the ATH (558.00) that happens to be just above Resistance 3.
The Lower Highs bullish break-out signal is strengthened by the fact that the RSI on the 1W time-frame is coming off a Bullish Divergence. On such long tern downtrends, this typically signifies a strong bullish reversal.
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UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold UNH here:
or here:
Then analyzing the options chain of UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 460usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $36.25.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
UNITED HEALTH On the 1D MA50 but only buy under this condition.United Health is having an incredible price jump today with the price hitting the 1D MA50 for the first time in one month and the 1D timeframe attempting to get out of its neutrality (RSI = 52.965, MACD = -5.780, ADX = 33.018). This state shows that we don't have a confirmed buy signal yet, that will only come if the 1D candle closes over the 1D MA50. If not, a pull back to the bottom of the ten month Channel Down.
The 1D RSI is also inside a Channel Down, a breakout there would also be a buy signal. So if the candle closes above the 1D MA50 we will buy and aim at the top of the Channel Down (TP = 512.50) expecting the whole rally to complete a +15% rise. If rejected we will buy near the bottom of the Channel Down and target again its top near the 0.786 Fibonacci leve (TP = 508.00). That is where the previous LH was formed.
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UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Double TopA double top is one of the most bearish technical reversal patterns.
A Double Top Bearish Chart Pattern forms after an asset reaches a high price two consecutive times.
After applying the Elliot Waves Pattern on UNH UnitedHealth Group, we have 2 price targets: $459 and $396.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Options Ahead Of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the Double Top:
Then looking at the UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated options chain ahead of earnings , i would buy the HKEX:520 strike price Calls with
2023-4-21 expiration date for about
$6.20 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
United Health Earnings BeatOn Friday 14th April 2023 UnitedHealth Group reported full year and fourth quarter 2022 results reflecting broad-based growth at Optum and UnitedHealthcare.
Revenues of $324.2 Billion Grew 13% Year-Over-Year, with Double-Digit Growth at both Optum and UnitedHealthcare
Cash Flows from Operations were $26.2 Billion or 1.3x Net Income
Full Year and Fourth Quarter Net Earnings were $21.18 and $5.03 Per Share
Full Year and Fourth Quarter Adjusted Net Earnings were $22.19 and $5.34 Per Share
UnitedHealth Group affirmed the 2023 growth and performance objectives established at its November 29th Investor Conference, including revenues of HKEX:357 billion to HKEX:360 billion, net earnings of $23.15 to $23.65 per share, adjusted net earnings of $24.40 to $24.90 per share and cash flows from operations of HKEX:27 billion to HKEX:28 billion.
United Health: Healthy As A… Bear? 🐻… or what was that saying again? Anyway, after a short hiatus, the bears in our United Health-chart should regain their health and get back to work. They should soon push the share below the support at $456.73 and from there into the dark green zone between $427.67 and $391.43, where wave A in dark green should end. This low should then be followed by a considerable upwards movement above the resistance at $501.40. There is also a 37% chance that United Health could cold-shoulder the dark green zone and climb above $501.40 directly. In that case, we would consider wave alt.A in dark green to be already finished.
UNITED HEALTH Buy Opportunity for this quarterThe UnitedHealth Group (UNH) hit the Resistance Zone following our last (November 18) signal but as it failed to break through its top, it got rejected:
By doing so, the price even broke below the Higher Lows trend-line and the Bullish Megaphone pattern, that were in effect since February 2021. This potentially signals a deceleration on its enormous and sustainable rise but not necessarily that it turns bearish. In order to do so, it needs a closing below the 1W MA100 (red trend-line).
Right now with the price on the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 1D RSI oversold at 30.000, it is on the very same spot it was on the June 17 2022 Low. See between the two fractals, the successive hits on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As a result, we consider this a buy opportunity back to the bottom (551.00) of the Resistance Zone.
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UnitedHealthGroup Analysis 19.11.2022Welcome to the BasicTrading channel.
My name is Philip and in todays analysis I quickly go over the situation which we currently have on UnitedHealth Group.
I will analyse the asset both from a weekly and daily timeframe to show you the best possible trading opportunities.
If you enjoyed this analysis, let me know in the comment section which asset I should analyse tomorrow.
I will personally reply to every single comment.
Dont forget to smash that rocket and I will see you tomorrow with a new analysis.
UNITED HEALTH Stronger than ever one last Resistance to go!The UnitedHealth Group (UNH) has been on a strong 3 day rise since the November 15 Low which was a Higher Low within a hyper long-term Bullish Megaphone pattern, with the trend-line holding since February 22 2021. On top of that it rebounded within the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) - 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) zone, which has more or less priced all prior major Higher Lows.
The next barrier standing is the 553.00 - 559.00 Resistance Zone that is holding since the April 14 2022 High and has had another two rejections, forming an Ascending Triangle. Needless to say, a break above it would be a major bullish break-out signal. As to the target? That would be initially the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, around $590.00, which is the symmetrical of the Fibonacci retracement levels that have formed the last two Higher Lows. As seen on the chart, the November 15 2022 Low was made on the 0.5 Fib while the October 13 2022 on the 0.382 Fib. We can argue that if there is one more rejection on the Resistance Zone, then the 0.618 Fib is a candidate for the next Higher Low.
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Another Short on UNH. UNHI have lost count of the number of successful shorts I've had on this say over the last six months.
Momentum flipped, PSAR close to. Elliott is always the main drive to all of our decision making, however.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.