FTSE / Ending Diagonal - The BIG SHORT is comingThis very looks like an ending diagonal and you best believe that the downfall will be pretty explosive!
Unitedkingdom
FTSE on the RISE into price discoveryWho said the financial markets were rational? I guess no one, but why people always try to find reasons for an asset to go up or down.
When you look at the UK economy and the FTSE making new 'All Time High', we understand my first setence.
Price could go much higher if this 'Expanding Diagonal Figure were to play out'
FTSE going to beat major indices and close the year in gains?The FTSE100 index (FTSE100) has resumed its bullish trend since the October 13 bottom after hitting both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on December 20. In fact, against all odds during this inflation crisis and in contrast to its heavy stock index counterparts, it is about to close the year in gains (if it stays above the 7420 level this week).
Practically, the index has been within a huge Rectangle pattern in 2022, ranging within 7700 and 6710. If that's not impressive enough, it just completed a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame (when the 1D MA50 crosses above the 1D MA200), which is technically a bullish formation. Last time we saw this pattern was on December 02 2020, as the index was recovering from the COVID crash globally. The price made a Low exactly at the time of the Golden Cross and started a very sustainable rise pattern.
What adds more weight to a bullish continuation, is the fact that the RSI on the 1W time-frame tested and held the former Lower Highs trend-line that was in effect through the majority of 2022.
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Rishi Sunak wins the UK Prime Minister raceEUR/USD 🔼
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After his last competitor leaves the race, Rishi Sunak will soon become the new leader of the UK conservative party, also the nation’s Prime Minister. While the market looks forward to better financial stability in the UK, the British Pound has declined to 1.1275 against the US dollar.
While the Japanese government did not confirm a previous market intervention in its currency rate, USD/JPY had surged more than 140 pips and stabilized at 148.96. USD/CAD rose to 1.3704, investors expect a 75 bps rate hike from the Bank of Canada on Thursday.
EUR/USD closed at 0.9874 with minor gains, and the AUD/USD pair was last traded at 0.631, losing almost 70 pips. Gold price went below $1,650 to a closing price of $1,649.41 an ounce. Despite a slowed Chinese demand and a stronger greenback, WTI oil futures suffered only minimal losses at $84.58 a barrel.
UK policy announcements fuels rally against the greenbackEUR/USD 🔼
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The new UK chancellor has scrapped more tax cuts in the "mini-budget", and slashed its energy subsidies. Although the new administration's grip on authority remains tenuous, the British Pound and Euro significantly managed to bounce back against the US dollar. GBP/USD reached a high of 1.1431, then retreated to 1.1353, while EUR/USD rose over 100 pips and closed at 0.9838.
Stocks also improved upon a return of risk appetite. The three major indices rebounded with notable gains, the biggest earner being the Nasdaq 100, which increased 370 points (+3.46%) to 11,062. Dow Jones and S&P 500 also added 1.86% and 2.65% respectively.
AUD/USD climbed and stabilized at 0.629, and the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained that moderate rate hikes are likely needed to control inflation. USD/CAD plunged almost 170 pips to 1.3709, and USD/JPY traded higher to a 32-year high of 149.03.
A weaker dollar sees the gold price last trading at $1,650.67 after a high of $1,666.4 an ounce. WTI oil futures closed slightly lower at $84.53 a barrel, citing Energy Information Administration's higher expectations in US oil production.
Europe&Japan to perform better than USA from now on, 3-UKComparision of "FTSE (UKX) in USD dollars" to "SPX".
I am publishing the same for all (please see my other analysis): Germany, UK, Japan.
I ignore all the fundamentals and only make technical analysis. Fall of EUR&GBP&JPY and their stock market's negative divergence compared to USA (SPX) is about to end, I believe.
Important: This doesn't mean that the equities&indices are going to rise from now on. My analysis only says: Europe&Japan will perform better than USA. Just because they are very cheap.
U.K. 10 Year Gilt UK10Y-GB
We are overall at key area but just like EUR I see no fundamental reasons short/medium term on why and who would realistically going into Gilt at this moment of time. Inflation running hot, could estimated by this yr at 13-15%, recession, housing crises and last of all political instability.
Double-digit inflation for the UKEUR/USD ▶️
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As the Governor of the Bank of England warned months prior, the UK CPI has recorded a 10.1 increase, compared to the market estimate of 9.8%. Such a high reading is not seen for four decades, and the British central bank is likely to bring more rate hikes to tame the raging inflation, possibly slowing the economy in the process. As a result, GBP/USD declined and stabilized at 1.2047.
Though the Fed meeting minutes are fairly dovish, the subsequent lower CPI data continues to increase bets for another 50 or 75 bps bump in the interest rate. The greenback rallied against its peers, USD/CAD rose to 1.2909, moving further toward the 1.3000 level.
Meanwhile, EUR/USD was little changed at 1.018, Eurozone CPI for July will be announced this afternoon. The Aussie suffered from falling iron prices and slid to a closing price of 0.6932, as the latest employment change results showed more than 400,000 people in Australia are no longer employed in a supposedly compact labor market.
Gold futures broke through 1,780 to 1,776.7 with minor fluctuations, extending its weakened run. US Crude Oil Inventories were reduced by over 7 million barrels, and a tightened supply moved WTI oil futures slightly higher to $88.11 a barrel, after meeting resistance at $88.00.
More information on Mitrade website.
AUDUSD Forecast Buying OpportunityHey traders, we are monitoring AUDUSD for a buying opportunity around 0.717 zone, once we will receive any bullish confirmation the trade will be executed. I see a long-term movement of the pair. First the trend line has been retested for the several times and the AUD index shows a long-term upward price movement. Wait for the break out of the trend line , retest and you are free to take a trade.
Disclaimer
Trade safe, by Kachala
GBPUSD LongHey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring GBPUSD for a buying opportunity around 1.33 zone respecting the support line of the descending channel in combination with weekly demand zone. once we will receive any bullish confirmation the trade will be executed.
Remember to use proper risk management, because in swing trading the movements are more violent comparing to short term trading.
Trade Safe, Joe.
UK COVID-19 Extended Wave into 2022Previously, assessed the UK projections on UK Freedom Day, where UK eased off COVID-19 measures.
Clearly it did not help as case counts dropped mildly, then started picking up in October.
GG... it is rising into 2022. Just how bad remains to be seen.
Brent Crude Oil 1-day classic patternsQ: What has the highest probability of occurring?
Since February 2021 price has been stabilising on $65 per barrel.
There is a combination of 2 classic patterns forming at 65.00 support.
The inverse head & shoulders, which is in the process of forming the right shoulder, is currently invalid.
This pattern projects 85.25 as the target.
The double bottom, having recently tested and rejected 65.00, would need to breakout from 76.50 to be validated.
This pattern projects 52.00 as the target.
Objectively looking at 65.00 support the two high volume bars appear to be putting the weight in favour of the formation of the double bottom following the ~15% correction.
Since the double bottom is not validated so the current position is neutral with a bias in favour of the uptrend continuing.
It is worth paying attention to the high of the left shoulder at ~72.00 and how the bulls and bears interact as validation of the double bottom is required at 76.50
UK COVID-19 Next Wave Projection Update IIFrom the previous post on 14 May, I was doing a friend a favour into looking at the UK projection as she is living in London.
I said "... and projection made that the start of a spike is at the end of June, into July .
IF this projection is on point, then outnbreak news should be seen in the latter part of July ."
It is the beginning of July, and it appears that the AMCD histograms trended up as expected, and is about to break out into a major spike given the weekly chart is about to crossover into the bullish territory.
The daily chart is clearly showing the spike in force... go see it.
So there you have it, yet again, this MACD model is projecting very well the onset of spikes. IF the powers that be, could appreciate this heuristical statistics, we might be able to intervene appropriately.
In any case... the weekly MACD is about to cross up, which is seriously bad news!
GBPUSD: Teases monthly support line amid Brexit, covid doldrumsGBPUSD pays a little heed to the price-negative catalysts during early Monday. In doing so, the cable ignores confirmation of a four-week delay in the UK’s unlock as well as an anticipated bumpy road for the next round of Brexit talks as EU policymakers pushed Britain to respect previously agreed deal over the Northern Ireland (NI) protocol. The corrective pullback seems technical as a monthly ascending support line tests the pair sellers around 1.4085. Even if the sterling bears dominate past-1.4085, 1.4010-4000 area comprising 50-day SMA, May 13 low and April’s top will be the key to watch.
Meanwhile, further upside could aim for 1.4180 immediate hurdle ahead of challenging the 1.4200 crucial resistance. It’s worth noting that a daily closing beyond 1.4200 needs a daily close beyond the latest top surrounding 1.4265 to aim for the 1.4300 and the 1.4370 numbers to the north. Overall, GBP/USD remains firm but a pullback can’t be ruled out.
UK COVID-19 Next Wave ProjectionI was just having a conversation with a Singaporean good friend who lives in London, and called this afternoon upon learning about the (earlier expected) stricter measures that was just announced this afternoon. We were exchanging views on how the countries differ in the management of the pandemic, and the consequent success and failures. Then mentioned that UK may be next... and I offered to use the same MACD system to project for the UK from the current known status.
In the chart above, the MACD corroborates that the situation in the UK had somewhat stabilized over the last two months after their Easter lockdown. Thing is, there appears to be a levelling off, and the arc drawn is projecting how it might turn out over the next weeks... and projection made that the start of a spike is at the end of June, into July.
IF this projection is on point, then outnbreak news should be seen in the latter part of July.
Let's test this system again!
Meanwhile... do take care, stay safe, stay healthy, especially if you are in the UK.