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$USCPCEPIMM -U.S PCE (October/2024)ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM October/2024 source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -The US core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure underlying inflation, rose by 0.3% from the previous month in October 2024, the same pace as in September and matching market forecasts. Service prices rose by 0.4%, while goods prices decreased 0.1%. Year-on-year, core PCE prices rose by 2.8% in October, the most in six months, also in line with market estimates.
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM
by Mr_J__fx
$USIRYY -U.S CPI (October/2024)ECONOMICS:USIRYY @2.6% (October/2024) source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - US Inflation Rate Picks Up The annual inflation rate in the US increased to 2.6% in October, from 2.4% in September and in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, CPI rise by 0.2%, consistent with the previous three months with shelter index up 0.4%, accounting for over half of the monthly increase. Meanwhile, core inflation stayed at 3.3% annually and 0.3% monthly.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$USINTR -Feds Cuts RatesECONOMICS:USINTR (November/2024) source: Federal Reserve -The Fed lowered the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75% at its November 2024 meeting, following a jumbo 50 basis point cut in September, in line with expectations. Policymakers reiterated their previous message that they will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks when considering additional adjustments to borrowing costs. On the economic front, the Fed noted that recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated. However, officials removed a reference they had “gained greater confidence” that inflation is moving toward the target.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by Mr_J__fx
EURUSD 3/11/24This week, our bias on the Euro has shifted from short to long. This change is based on observing a shift in the higher time frame structure, as institutions appear to be showing interest in buying. Whether this move will be short-term or long-term remains to be seen. We’ll watch the price action in the first sessions of the week to get a clearer idea. Please note, this analysis follows the same principles and bias approach as always. Currently, there are no unmitigated demand areas on the 4-hour chart, and only a short-term supply area has formed. The area of demand we’ve highlighted is present only on the 1-hour chart, making it more of a smaller time frame reference than a higher one. We’ve marked key liquidity levels, which will serve as our reference points for potential upward movement this week. If the price interacts with the 1-hour demand area, we’ll aim for the high at the top of the current range. While I’m ultimately looking for a longer-term upward move, a pullback beforehand is possible. Stick to your plan and manage your risk.
by PipSurfingSociety
-United States PCE (October/2024)$USCPCEPEPIMM 0.3% (October/2024) source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -The US core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure underlying inflation, rose by 0.3% from the previous month in September of 2024, the highest gain in five months, following an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in August, matching market forecasts. Service prices rose by 0.3%, while goods prices decreased 0.1%. Year-on-Year, core PCE prices rose 2.7%, the same as in August, but above forecasts of 2.6%. source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM
by Mr_J__fx
$USGDPQQ -U.S GDP (Q3/2024)ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ 2.8% Q3/2024 source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -The US economy expanded an annualized 2.8% in Q3 2024, below 3% in Q2 and forecasts of 3%, the advance estimate from the BEA showed. Personal spending increased at the fastest pace since Q1 2023 (3.7% vs 2.8% in Q2), boosted by a 6% surge in consumption of goods (6% vs 3%) and a robust spending on services (2.6% vs 2.7%), mostly prescription drugs, motor vehicles and parts, outpatient services and food services and accommodations. Government consumption also rose more (5% vs 3.1%), led by defense spending. In addition, the contribution from net trade was less negative (-0.56 pp vs -0.9 pp), with both exports (8.9% vs 1%) and imports (11.2% vs 7.6%) soaring, led by capital goods, excluding autos. On the other hand, private inventories dragged 0.17 pp from the growth, after adding 1.05 pp in Q2. Also, fixed investment slowed (1.3% vs 2.3%), led by a decline in structures (-4% vs 0.2%) and residential investment (-5.1% vs -2.8%). Investment in equipment however, soared (11.1% vs 9.8%).
ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ
by Mr_J__fx
Are You Seeing This?If being on the gold standard made the U.S. Debt-to-GDP ratio get better, then what will make the Debt-to-GDP even out now? Particularly since we're probably not going back to the gold standard. What asset can the U.S. peg the U.S. Dollar to make the Debt-to-GDP even out or decline? Or, will the U.S. just letting the debt continue without being checked? The great part about the U.S. is their "beautiful deleveraging" and reflation. It's great to the have fighting in the corner of the U.S. It gets bumpy, but just hold on tight. There is more to come. Can't wait to see how this plays out. #RayDalio #GoldStandard #BeautifulDeleveraging #BumpyRide #WhatsNext #ATJX $ATJX
ECONOMICS:USGDG
by NebulousMercuria
T. Rowe Price Analysis 9/10Disclosure: As of 09/10/2024 I am long T. Rowe Price shares ticker NASDAQ:TROW T. Rowe Price is an investment management company operating in the mutual funds, retirement plans, and investment management business areas. Management Effectiveness: T. Rowe Price has been around for many years and management has consistently managed to grow assets under management, and provide good returns for the firm as well as their clients. The company's return on assets is very good, never dropping below 10% even in the financial crisis of 2008. The company has minimal debt, and an excellent balance sheet. With a business like this the concern is valuation, all the fundamentals and the trend of growing assets as workers contribute to retirement plans will continue well into the future. With a company like this a very long holding period should be expected. As a holding in a retirement, or tax advantaged account T. Rowe Price is very attractive at the right valuations. The idea is to let the earnings compound over a period of decades. Please keep this in mind if you decide to add this company to your portfolio. Looking at the current valuations the combined earnings and dividend yield is nearly 13%. With stable revenue growth, asset growth, and very little downside in the way of tail risks this business is a buy for me at anything below $110 per share. My personal expected return on this is between 15%-17% annually with a holding period of 20-50 years to allow the returns to compound internally with the business.
NASDAQ:TROWLong
by sihen999
$DXY - Bottom Range Bound BreachedThe Dollar Index TVC:DXY has breached a pretty serious level ; the bottom range bound which has previously acted as strong support for TVC:DXY to bounce. Will this time be the same and this will result in a fake-out? Or will TVC:DXY headed lower, re-visiting pre-pandemic levels? Check out the previous released ideas linked below for more in depth information regarding our journey 'Decisive Move Around the Corner' (line chart) (candlesticks chart) TRADE SAFE NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research before partaking upon any trading activity based solely on this idea.
TVC:DXY
by Mr_J__fx
$DXY -Decisive Move Around the Corner !!! Dollar Index TVC:DXY on the cusp of making a major move TA speaking ; (100.8 or 110) - To the upside starting currently by jumping at 200EMA and breaking recent highs within pattern while facing strong resistance just above on Range Ceiling(105) and last Highs of 107(ChoCh). - Either falling off a cliff headed in to re-visiting Range Bottom of 100.82 (Swing/Positioning) Fundamentally speaking ; Would be a great move to the Upside for TVC:DXY Fundamentally speaking, resulting so on SHORTING anti-correlated assets, such as EUR/USD and other FX pairs. Must be time for TVC:DXY to strengthen even more, makes sense ,, otherwise Recession is just ahead ! On headlines , CPI ECONOMICS:USIRYY is coming lower, with economists awaiting Fed Cuts ECONOMICS:USINTR cuts by end year. However, worth mentioning is that wealth hedges such as TVC:GOLD continues to be stocked up in piles of tonnes from China ECONOMICS:CNGRES and not only; China's Wealthy Class is also in the process of purchasing pure physical Gold *** NOTE This is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research with your own diligence and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity with your hard earned money based solely on this Idea. Ideas being released are published for my own trading speculation and journaling needed to be clear on different asset classes price action.
TVC:DXY
by Mr_J__fx
$USIRYY -CPI# *M print (post AA+)- Awaiting CPI# numbers readings for ECONOMICS:USIRYY on August 10th (today) post US being Down-Graded to AA +. While on the 9th of August ECONOMICS:CNIRYY came deflationary on the other side of the world Consensus sits at 3.1% (0.1% increase) and some to 0.3% increase at 3.3% for ECONOMICS:USIRYY Economists forecast Inflation rising up again on a steady pace for the rest of 2023 and the entering of 2024 for coming down YoY from 9.1% to 3% On the last ECONOMICS:USINTR Rate Hike Decisions following a Month of Breath, our pal, Jerome Powell stated during his speech regarding Fed's seeing inflation coming up on months to come not being total uder control. This was aswell one of many reasons they didn't felt confident to stop the Rate Hiking . He aswell stated that Federal Reserve does not see Inflation coming down to their Target Norm of 2% CPI by 2025, and they fimrly prompt a 'Soft Landing'. How about another joke, Powell ! It's not about Money , its about sending a Message . Everything Burn ... TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice Please do your own research and consult your own financial advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this idea.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
5
The Petrodollar Agreement and the Future of OilThe term "petrodollar" refers to the value of oil bought with U.S. dollars. This concept was founded in 1974 when Saudi Arabia and the United States made an agreement to price Saudi oil exports exclusively in U.S. dollars. This arrangement had significant effects on the global economy and politics. This system increased the global demand for U.S. dollars. Oil-exporting countries like Saudi Arabia committed to selling oil only in dollars, forcing other countries needing oil to acquire U.S. dollars for transactions. This continuous demand strengthened the value of the dollar in global markets. This system also led to the widespread use of the dollar. Since oil is a strategic commodity used worldwide, the need for dollars to buy oil pushed countries to hold large reserves of dollars. This includes central banks and major companies that rely on importing oil to meet their needs. Due to the increased demand and continuous use of the dollar, its value became stable. When there is a high and steady demand for a currency, its price fluctuations decrease, making it a stable and reliable currency for international trade. This stability enhanced the dollar's position as the world's main reserve currency. Why Is the World Watching Now? Recent geopolitical developments and changes in global alliances have sparked discussions about Saudi Arabia's role in the petrodollar system. Major economies like China and the European Union are emerging as key players in global oil markets, and there are serious and successful attempts to price oil in their currencies. The BRICS aims to launch a new global economic system, and the idea of pricing oil in non-dollar currencies has been proposed. This idea is not just a theoretical study but is based on tangible real-world evidence. After the Russian war on Ukraine and the subsequent economic sanctions from the U.S. and the West, Russia announced it would sell its oil in rubles under certain conditions. In March 2023, a deal was made for Russia to sell oil to India, with payment in rubles. In the same month, Saudi Arabia announced its intention to consider exporting part of its oil to China in yuan. The United Arab Emirates took the first step in this field by pricing gas in Chinese yuan. Last year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced the pricing of a shipment of Emirati gas in Chinese currency. The UAE did not immediately announce whether it would continue pricing part of its liquefied gas exports in yuan on the Shanghai Stock Exchange or if it was just testing the global market's reaction to this move. Benefits for the UAE and China For the UAE, the benefits include diversifying revenue sources and reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar. This move strengthens economic ties with China, the world's second-largest economy, opening up more opportunities for cooperation and joint investments. It also represents a strategic step towards achieving greater flexibility in international financial and trade dealings. For China, this move enhances the yuan's position as an international currency, contributing to reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar in global trade. By pricing oil and gas in yuan, China can secure energy supplies with its local currency, reducing currency conversion costs and helping to enhance internal financial stability. Impact on the Dollar A crucial point is the global push towards renewable energy and the potential decrease in oil demand, which can significantly affect the dynamics of the petrodollar system. As the world seeks to shift to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources, the importance of oil—and thus the petrodollar—may diminish in the global economy. Additionally, the changing political landscape, including shifts in U.S. foreign policies and Saudi Arabia's strengthening relations with other global powers, may lead to a reevaluation of the petrodollar arrangement. These political shifts might prompt Saudi Arabia and other countries to consider using alternative currencies in oil trade. Vision for Diversification Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates aim to diversify their economies away from oil dependence to achieve long-term economic sustainability and reduce risks associated with global oil price fluctuations. Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" aims to diversify income sources and develop new economic sectors such as tourism, entertainment, industry, technology, and education. This program aims to create new job opportunities, attract foreign investments, and achieve comprehensive and sustainable economic growth. The UAE focuses on developing sectors such as tourism, aviation, trade, finance, technology, real estate, education, and renewable energy. Through this vision, the UAE seeks to strengthen its position as a global hub in various fields, which it has largely succeeded in so far, and reduce its reliance on oil as a main part of its economy. In summary, the world is closely watching Saudi Arabia and its allies because any changes in their approach to oil trade and currency preferences can have widespread effects on global financial markets, the strength of the U.S. dollar, and international economic relations.
TVC:UKOIL
by bbitar
U.S Core PCE Price Index (MoM)ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM Core PCE prices in the US, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.2% from the previous month in December of 2023, aligned with market estimates, and picking up slightly from the 0.1% increase in November. From the previous year, Core PCE prices edged 2.9% higher, undershooting market estimates of 3% to mark the lowest reading since February 2021. The data extended the disinflation trend in prices measured by the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, consistent with previous signals of rate cuts to be delivered this year. Regarding the whole national PCE that includes energy and food, prices rose by 0.2% from the prior month and 2.6% from the prior year, consistent with expectations. Prices for goods rose by less than 0.1% from 2022, while those for services remained elevated at 3.9%. source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM
by Mr_J__fx
$RUGRES 'August/2023 Accumulation'ECONOMICS:RUGRES The latest data from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) International Financial Statistics (IFS) report shows that Russia’s central bank increased its gold reserves in August, restoring reserves back to previous levels from earlier this year.⁠ ⁠ “IMF IFS data shows gold reserves at the Central Bank of Russia rose by 3 tonnes in August,” according to Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst at the World Gold Council. ⁠ ⁠ Analysts reacted positively to the data, but some raised questions regarding Russia's gold production and where the precious metal is going.⁠
ECONOMICS:RUGRES
by Mr_J__fx