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DXY-Weekly OutlookTVC:DXY Hello Traders, This is my weekly outlook for DXY, this week should be a relatively relaxed week as their is no high impact news except for Friday and a US holiday on Monday, because of this I believe USD will pull back from last weeks sell off to a HTF key point-on the daily TF-to rebalance price. A few long positions have been added by commercials, which makes me think they're hedging for a small correction to then continue a sell off since the majority of their positions are net short. Stimulus benefits will end this Monday, therefore the dollar should begin to gain a bit more strength due to the reduced printing of the dollar, however, inflation is still a big concern as I see a weakened 10y, meaning, inflation is still a prominent risk with rising delta cases, continued government purchases, and supply and demand issues. There still is an overall secular decline of inflation as last months CPI numbers showed, however delta cases, additional 3.5 trillion government package, and reduced 10y yields could change that weakening the dollar further. With the huge miss of Friday's NFP report and a continued pause on tapering, more net short positions by commercials and overall seasonal technical analysis I still see dollar as net BEARISH. Septembers NFP will be the catalyst about tapering thoughts, due to the end of stimulus and people having to go back to work because of no income or help from the government, therefore, we should see higher NFP numbers, strengthening the dollar. If September/October reports are stronger enough, by November we should begin hearing talks about rate hikes or a slow down of purchases, which will cause another small correction of 2-7% on the equity market and an increase in yields. Thats if Delta, WH turmoil, and inflation are controlled... Potential Bullish Fundamental Catalyst: 1. 09/08 Increased Job Openings 2.Lower Unemployment Claims 3. Less oil inventory 4.Lower PPI, inflation curving down, reduction in government spending package. 5. accelerating the TF for rate hikes. Bearish Fundamental Catalyst: 1.09/15 Increased corporate/capital earning tax 2. 09/27 3.5 Trillion Government spending package bill (can be negotiated through november)-- possible 5-10% pull back on equities. 3. increased inflation, less job openings, higher unemployment claims 4.Stimulus support because of rising delta cases 5. delaying tapering process. 6. Europe reopening and possible rate hikes. Hope everyone has a great trading week! :) Will update everyday if anything changes. (this is my trading journal not signals).
TVC:DXYLong
by stimichele
2
EU- EUR / USD ANALYSISEUR / USD- EURO Vs. UNITED STATES DOLLAR- Daily Time Frame Chart Analysis + Market Bias/Market Trend + Key Weekly & Daily Time Frame Chart Market Levels ✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬ #1. D1-DTFC MARKET TREND ✬- MARKET TREND / MARKET BIAS- THE DAILY TIME FRAME CHART MARKET TREND / MARKET BIAS-✬ MARKET TREND / MARKET BIAS- The Overall Daily Time Frame Chart Market Trend As Of Right Now Is - The Market Is In A Bullish Trend The Market Has Been In An Uptrend Since The 23rd Of March, 2020 It Has Been Constantly Rising And Making HH- HIGHER-HIGHS & HL- HIGHER-LOWS 1. The Market Began Pushing Higher Up Where It Broke Thorough The Key Daily Time Frame Chart Market Level Of Resistance At 1.19535 Where Price Then Consolidated For About 2 Days... Then Continued The Push Higher Up 2. Price Then Pushed Higher Up Where It Broke Through The Key Daily Time Frame Chart Market Level Of Resistance At 1.20555 Where It Then Pulled Back And Encountered A Key Daily Time Frame Chart Market Support Level At 1.9960... 3. Price Then Pushed Higher Up... Broke Past The Key Daily Time Frame Chart Market Level Of Resistance At 1.20555... Then Pulled Right Back Down To The Key Daily Support Level At 1.9960... Where Price Skyrocketed Immensely 4. As You Can Clearly See There Was A Pullback To The Key Daily Time Frame Chart Level Of Support At 1.20555 5. Price Then Pushed Higher Up Where It Experienced Some Consolidation And Some Interaction With The Key Weekly Time Frame Chart Market Level Of Resistance At 1.22465... Price The Pulled Back... Where It Created A BULLISH PIN BAR... Buy Signal... ✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬ #2. W & D1-TFC KEY MARKET LEVELS ✬- KEY WEEKLY & DAILY TIME FRAME CHART MARKET LEVELS OF SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE-✬ Analysis Of The Weekly Time Frame Chart & Analysis Of The Daily Time Frame Chart The Weekly Time Frame Chart Market Levels of Resistance & the Weekly Time Frame Chart Market Levels of Support- Shown On Chart The Daily Time Frame Chart Market Levels Of Resistance & the Daily Time Frame Chart Market Levels of Support- Shown on Chart THE KEY WEEKLY TIME FRAME CHART MARKET LEVELS OF SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE ARE: A Key Weekly Resistance Level At- 1.23516 A Key Weekly Resistance Level At- 1.22465 A Key Weekly Support Level At- 1.17005 THE KEY DAILY TIME FRAME CHART MARKET LEVELS OF SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE ARE: A Key Daily Support Level At- 1.20555 A Key Daily Support Level At- 1.19960 A Key Daily Support Level At- 1.19535 ✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬ #3- PA MARKET TRADING SIGNALS / SETUPS As Of Right Now I Am Only Looking For PRICE ACTION MARKET TRADING SIGNALS / SETUPS That May Form / Develop At / From That Key Weekly Time Frame Chart Market Level Of Resistance ✬✬✬✬✬BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE FORMATION / CREATION OF PRICE ACTION MARKET TRADING SIGNALS / SETUPS THAT MAY FORM AT Or FROM THAT KEY DAILY TIME FRAME CHART MARKET LEVEL OF SUPPORT✬✬✬✬✬ ✬✬✬✬✬AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE MARKET IS SUBJECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH PRICE ACTION MARKET MOVEMENTS...SO BE ON THE LOOKOUT AND STAY ALERT✬✬✬✬✬ ✬✬✬✬✬As For That Bullish Pin Bar PRICE ACTION MARKET TRADING SIGNAL... I Will Wait To See What Price Does. I Am A Little Skeptical About Entering Into The Market And Taking A Long Position... Considering The Placement Of That Bullish Pin Bar... I Will Sit On My Hands And Wait For Another Confirmation / Factor Of Confluence Before Entering Into The Market✬✬✬✬✬ ✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬✬
by DMAFXTRAD
Ready for the great reset of wealth?Here is the distribution of the 50 largest public companies: USA 34/50 CHN  7/50 EUR  5/50 OTH  4/50 This seems normal? The percentage of american companies at the top is close to what the percentage of japanese companies at the top was in the 1980s. Random people, which are mindless NPCS, somehow acting like it's normal. And they will act like hyperinflation is normal when it happens. The way I see it there are 2 directions we are heading: Stock crash and great depression. The best outcome. High inflation and wealth + debt great reset. The socialized loss outcome they won't recover from in the 21st century. Seing spending this is where the US is going. Hyperinflation à la Zimbabwe would be obvious and have negative consequences for the crooks running the show. No, as always it will be a boiling frog method, with lots and lots of arguing coming from the crooks responsible and their supporters. And besides if inflation gets too bad, all business are not even able to operate, they are completely frozen. I can already predict their arguments "Back in the 70s-80s inflation was at 15% and we did great", "inflation is the result of effective policies creating growth" (while the tangible real world amounts of goods being produced is down down down), "we need to save the planet and help out student debt", "it's because of political opponents fighting us via money" (it's a conspiraceeeeeh!). I recently read a bit about Romania inflation in the 90s. Lasted 7 years, and the government cleared its debt (but not always the debt of the plebe), and created a great reset. The money masters did just fine, and a few people even got rich. 99% of the population did not do just fine. The entire east europe was depressed, russians are famous for being alcoholism masters. Romanian inflation peaked at "only" 255% and the public got used to it, it was advertised as normal. People that worked their entire lives and had some savings lost everything. Via inflation their wealth was transferred to the government, with most of it simply evaporating because unlike what USA millennials think this is not a zero sum game (pie). As if today wealth is the same as the paleolithic wealth and all it did was move around. They say wealth does not simply get created out of thin air, that's funny to me because a lot of it does, thin air contains humidity, CO2, warmth, and that's all it takes for much of agri wealth. We do not come from the earth, we come from thin air as we are carbon based lifeforms not silice based. Inflation in Romania started as early as the beginning of the 1980s, from the socialist government (yes, again) robbing the population to pay back its debt as it had strings attached, following the 1979 Oil crisis. The collapse of the USSR it led to did not save them, and it continued and got worse in the 90s. To avoid starving to death, Romanians, which were mostly rural, grew food in their garden and helped each other. They knew each other, did not move much, had no migrants. To compare this to others, Venezuela has 85% urbans, and the USA 80%. Europe is in the 80s too. Also I want to note that business owners cannot magically raise wages before prices go up because they might not have the cash AND they cannot predict the future. People with savings and people with jobs will lose. Broke people reliant on welfare lose too (compared to where they used to be not what they produce which is zero). People with debt might win, probably lose too as the government cares about its spending and its debt, not yours. Filthy rich people win, Singapore is only 1 plane ticket and 1 clic away. They always seem to win don't they? There are 4 plans to a group of people: In Europe and the USA people move around - especially in the USA - and they don't know each other. In Europe and the USA there are many migrants, sometimes they don't even speak the language. The countries are very heterogeneous. In Europe and the USA 80% or more of the population is urban, and clueless on how to grow food, and very much NOT resourceful. Helpless. The USA are even running a "divide to conquer" strategy, with camps hating each other. They won't help each other or fight back inflation. The plan B seems very hard to execute. And plan C? Europe and the US are the ones sending food to Africa. Who will send help to them? Argentina? Haha! (Argentina is one of the largest grain exporter that's why, still... they're not THAT big). Smells like a plan D. As I said I doubt they will run the inflation to 4 digits and more. But 50% is ahead of us. Slowly boil these frogs. Food can still somehow be grown and bought in these conditions. Might see a drop in production, but EU & NA overproduce. Plus the greens want to grow more bio food, and reduce meat production (that turns hay we cannot eat into juicy steaks and chicken legs). The west food production might drop a bit but as we overproduce it, the ones starving are african kids getting humanitarian aid not europeans. Ghana president (and others) have reduced their dependency on welfare to focus on developing their economy (tier 1 prod + tier 2 valued adding industries), he said he didn't believe in santa claus, maybe he reads my ideas? African countries choice to distance from aid might have a bonus: not starving to death when EU & NA can't send food there. Now unpaid for made in China smartphones, computers, tvs and consoles? Forget about it! Enjoy going back to board games. Less CO2 emissions. Greta is going to be happy. I miss the good old days of board games. People that understand percentages and ROI win all monopoly games. Less stupid TV nonsense, less social media crap, more thinking games equals hard times creates less dumb men. EU & NA does not just import TVS and computers, there's also drugs... Well old people might have to leave us a bit earlier than expected. In any case, the west will go back to simpler times, they will have to get used to a lower standard of living and that's a good thing! I look forward to less electronics and more outdoor activities and board games. And less clown twitter imaginary world cancel warriors!
TVC:NI225
by MrRenev
4
Further Fate of DXYI made this prediction on January 14, 2021 for myself, but I'm only publishing it now (because I figured why not?). It will serve as a timestamp and we will see how it fills over time. Let's take a look at TVC:DXY , something that determines half of the world economy. My Prediction: in the long term (in the sense of crypto - 1y-2y): - DXY will break down hard. - crypto will be incredibly pumped by new capital escaping from collapsing traditional markets in ultra-long (in the sense of crypto - 3y-5y): - we have the end of the dollar as the dominant currency - we will see the new face of the entire crypto market Legend to read the chart: - description: DXY monthly, Zoom Out to TradingView's top of stock. - red vertical lines: lowest low on the cycle - vertical green bars: highest high per cycle - peak / bottom occurs on average every 7-8 years (blue balloons at the end with the number of bars. 1 bar = 1 month) - purple strokes - great descending channel - yellow horizontal lines: Fibonacci measured from the last peak (March 2020, beginning of the pandemic) to the support from which the DXY breakout took place (August 2014). Fibo values ​​shifted to the right for the readability of the chart. And now - we have 3 points of intersection on DXY in the future, that is: - purple channel - yellow retracement of fibo 1.618 (the thickest yellow bottom line) - red distance in time - prediction for a next bottom. What facts support this prediction: - 16-year dollar cycles - currently it looks like we have a half cycle and a systematic decline. We'll get to the bottom in 3-5 years - Biden administration (tax supporter, mass stimulation, possibly permanent guaranteed income) - the rise of China's power, increasing economic domination, cryptoyuan is on the doorstep, making world production dependent on one another, cutting itself off from global systems, partnership with Russia, dominance in Asia - the rise of Asia as a whole, the largest economic pacts in history If this is really our target for the next 3-5 years, the index decline is about 29%. What does it mean: - collapse of the USA as a world empire - collapse of the dollar and the petrodollar system - Bitcoin to the moon, unless they regulate it and ban trading for little ones, and leave it to institutions - there will be not only ALT season, but also whole CRYPTO season. Projects with good foundations will systematically raise money (be it from stimulus, or from institutions and corporations), so anything from the top 150 is worth keeping on super long term HODL. Key issues for the coming years: - what will happen to the dollar, what system will be put in place instead? - will China dominate this new system? If so, what will be the answer from the US? - or will there be a clear systemic division between West vs East with an eastern center of gravity in China? - what role will crypto play? Will they let him play freely as he has done so far? - What if Biden dies during his term of office? What will Kamala Harris do then? Feel free to discuss this idea.
TVC:DXYLong
by Jehu92
5