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V Bottom Bull Signal ?V bottoms are bull signals that suggest follow through to the up side if driven through resistance. Clearly, that's what we've seen over the past few weeks, but resistance breakthrough is not too strong. Moreover, we are seeing a number of minor pull backs without strong conviction beyond resistance. Fundamentals are key to SPX500 as well, so don't get bogged down in singular signals, but use that as a part of a larger strategy. For instance, stochastic tells us to expect a pull back, but the volatility of this oscillator suggests it could be brief which is the benefit of the stochastic. Finally, I have the Sharpe rolling oscillator which tells you if the asset is outperforming its year to date returns given a risk free 3 month return. As of right now, SPX500 is just barely doing this. Good luck trading out there ladies and gents. For more, check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
SPX Sideways Move Absolutely PossibleI'm not saying its going to happen, but many fundies point to indecision. There's little motivating force behind breaking through previous all-time highs. Trade war resolution? Probably not since after US-China, Trump may take on the EU and Japan with auto tariffs. If that goes down, he could easily tip us into recession. At the end of the day, speculative appetite is based on growth which is in generally slowing. Yield curve inversion reminds us we are close to the end. Could be a year out, could be a month out, but either way its coming. You can't time the market and you probably won't sell at the perfect time. Most investors know this and probably don't want to go deep into US equities or world equities for that matter if they know within a year or so they'll be able to buy everything much cheaper. Credit loan swaps remind us of the derivative perils of 2008 with much corporate debt grouped together creating uncertainty over the quality of specific loans. In short, theres many more reasons to e a bear than a bull. Because of this, I could understand a move sideways for several months and then a significant correction and possible recession. For more, check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
SPX500 MAs All Show Buy, Most Oscillators Are NeutralIf you're a momentum trading loving moving averages, US indexes, particularly the SPX500 is for you. If you're more an oscillator guy, then its understandable how frustrated you may be lately. That said, we could be looking at former resistance as support, but we havn't yet touched previous resistance for this to be the case yet. Although, we are staying above it at least. This is good news, but don't look at fundies if you want a more positive note. I'm neutral with the oscillators then, but the chart its mostly the rosy picture. Good luck with your trades boys and girls. If you want more analysis and charts, check out my other content at www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
GBP/JPY... What is going on??!!The Pound against the Yen has been short for roughly around the beginning of November and puts pressure for the yen over the new year. From research, this pair may continue to go down, and here is why. Firstly, the Nikkei 225 has significantly dropped by 17.53% from the 2nd of October to the 28th of December. Reasoning behind this is due to other variables affecting the yen such as the US and China trade war which gives concerning to what Japan may have to face when they trade with the United States on new policies. Especially since Japan is the 4th largest trading partner with the United States, rallying up on $204.1 Billion in 2017. Britain on the other hand is more focused on Brexit, for those who do not know, Britain is wanting to leave the EU for more tougher immigration laws in order to strengthen the safety of the citizens from terrorism. There are many other reasons but this is the main highlight of why. Some people in Britain do not agree with some of the new policies and laws that the government is trying to put in place, including trade. Confident votes have been used in the government but Theresa May (current prime minister) still has passed in the votes. Overall, both countries are in the downside at the current moment and we will have to see what 2019 awaits for us all but this evidentially results in a short sell position for short and long term. Happy New Year everyone!
Short
by bailey707
USDCAD - 20-30% Cyclical Long Trade? 2 Year PlanUSD fundamentals have become interesting with the Fed taking an increasingly hawkish stance with interest rates, unwinding QE, and speaking highly of US economic growth. The US govt's stimulus plans also likely means US debt will increase through sale of more US treasuries, and holding this debt will become more interesting to market participants as wealth preservation suddenly becomes a thing again with the end of NIRP. Other currencies will likely fail to keep up with a strengthening USD, and non-US central banks may even try to cheapen their currencies to favour their trade surpluses. In terms of the technicals, since the beginning of 2016, the USD has been consolidating against CAD, forming a large flag consolidation pattern on the weekly. On the monthly we have a rising wedge pattern, but this pattern is likely to play out further before playing out as a reversal. The trend is clearly in favour of the USD bulls with prices currently trading above the EMA50, with the indicator trading comfortably above the EMA200. The cyclical trade is to the upside. Combined, the fundamental and technical picture points in favour of the USD. The recent US-Canada trade deal also points toward potential weakness for the CAD, as the US has now gained increasing control over Canadian trade and monetary policy (see recent discussions on NAFTA renego and the new terms of the deal). Monthly snapshot: ***This is not investment advice and is simply an educational analysis of the market and/or pair. By reading this post you acknowledge that you will use the information here at YOUR OWN RISK
Education
by Trader6127
US Dollar Index in an Ascending PatternThe Head and Shoulder's Pattern started forming on the Dollar Index from the Beginning of October 2017 to the End of December 2017. It break out of the Neckline and retested it on the Mid of January 2018 and fell sharply thereafter. The Dollar consolidated in the Mid of January 2018 in the price range of 91.00 - 90.10 but the consolidation did not remain much long as the unexpected US Govt Shut Down pushed the price even lower to test the Support, but didn't break through it and created a low of 88.25 on the 16th February. After this huge fall of the Dollar it again started consolidating in a Ascending Triangle from the last 60-65 days. Now the Price has already tested the Resistance twice, now it may again test it one or two times then it might break the resistance and test the next resistance of 91.5. If the Price on the daily closes above this mark then the dollar will be bullish from thereafter. Let's see how this price action plays out. Note: This is my first ever post on trading view. Do let me know in the comments if you liked it or not. Happy Trading ;)
TVC:DXY
by iam_jaisonjose
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