Get started

Unitedstates

USDCAD - 20-30% Cyclical Long Trade? 2 Year PlanUSD fundamentals have become interesting with the Fed taking an increasingly hawkish stance with interest rates, unwinding QE, and speaking highly of US economic growth. The US govt's stimulus plans also likely means US debt will increase through sale of more US treasuries, and holding this debt will become more interesting to market participants as wealth preservation suddenly becomes a thing again with the end of NIRP. Other currencies will likely fail to keep up with a strengthening USD, and non-US central banks may even try to cheapen their currencies to favour their trade surpluses. In terms of the technicals, since the beginning of 2016, the USD has been consolidating against CAD, forming a large flag consolidation pattern on the weekly. On the monthly we have a rising wedge pattern, but this pattern is likely to play out further before playing out as a reversal. The trend is clearly in favour of the USD bulls with prices currently trading above the EMA50, with the indicator trading comfortably above the EMA200. The cyclical trade is to the upside. Combined, the fundamental and technical picture points in favour of the USD. The recent US-Canada trade deal also points toward potential weakness for the CAD, as the US has now gained increasing control over Canadian trade and monetary policy (see recent discussions on NAFTA renego and the new terms of the deal). Monthly snapshot: ***This is not investment advice and is simply an educational analysis of the market and/or pair. By reading this post you acknowledge that you will use the information here at YOUR OWN RISK
Education
by Trader6127
US Dollar Index in an Ascending PatternThe Head and Shoulder's Pattern started forming on the Dollar Index from the Beginning of October 2017 to the End of December 2017. It break out of the Neckline and retested it on the Mid of January 2018 and fell sharply thereafter. The Dollar consolidated in the Mid of January 2018 in the price range of 91.00 - 90.10 but the consolidation did not remain much long as the unexpected US Govt Shut Down pushed the price even lower to test the Support, but didn't break through it and created a low of 88.25 on the 16th February. After this huge fall of the Dollar it again started consolidating in a Ascending Triangle from the last 60-65 days. Now the Price has already tested the Resistance twice, now it may again test it one or two times then it might break the resistance and test the next resistance of 91.5. If the Price on the daily closes above this mark then the dollar will be bullish from thereafter. Let's see how this price action plays out. Note: This is my first ever post on trading view. Do let me know in the comments if you liked it or not. Happy Trading ;)
TVC:DXY
by iam_jaisonjose
2
USDJPY - A little rough, but a short before hitting the long!Although these last few trading days of UJ have been a bit turbulent to say the least (especially for those of us currently short) there is a little light at the end of the tunnel - this is for sure a counter trend trade, so I wouldnt really be looking to short, if I hadnt already jumped in it ;) We are currently (as of Sunday evening) sitting at the 61.8% retracement from the last lower high to lower low. Assuming we now have a clear rejection from the 114.147 area, full extension has us at 110.362 - for those IN a short now, Id suggest setting TP at previous lows to ensure profit is hit before the turn around... (111.700s) for those that got short earlier this evening at 114.147, I would suggest placing TP at the full extension as you have less risk at that point (trailing your SL a bit) Once we hit that full extension area, or right below it at the 50% retracement from election jump - I would suggest going long as we will continue bullish at that point as planned. (given that we are in a bullish market on UJ and have no reason to currently believe otherwise. Happy trading and good luck!
by AutreyMcVicker