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UNL

XNGUSD SPOT NATURAL GAS Slowly getting ready to reverse LONGXNGUSD is here on a 120 minute chart. I can see that it is trying to turn the corner and head up. The RSI is turning up in bullish divergence. While price is below its moving averages, the SMA20 is soon to be in reach. The anchored VWAP lines are approaching a slope decreasing to zero, while price is getting closer to the mean VWAP as those lines go flat. Overall, volumes are on the rise while price is sideways, so there is bullish divergence in the volume trend. Overall, I see XNGUSD setting up for an uptrend. It could be a big one. Time to buckle up before turning the key. there may be some horsepower involved.
FXOPEN:XNGUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
4
XNGUSD Looking for Bullish continuation LONGXNGUSD is still in oversold and undervalued territory as demand may be mitigated by anticipation of milder weather and supplies seem to be more than adequate. XNGUSD may move higher if either of those factors changes. The chart shows price about 15% above support and about 60% below heavy resistance. The RSI indicator shows the faster RSI line above the 50 level and so I think the bullish move is supported by buying volume. I will take a long trade on forex and in UNG / UNL on the equities market.
FXOPEN:XNGUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
5
BOIL- Premarket Long Trade Scalp RecapsBOIL is here on the 15- minute chart with a set of Bollinger Bands, a Bollinger Band Oscillator by LuxAlgo as well as a dual-time frame RSI indicator by Chris Moody. The settings for the Bollinger Band set up are period 49 EMA 14 standard deviations 2 /2.618 ( These are multiples of 7 and Fib #s for mathematical reasons. Entries are signal is price crossing the base line of the Bollinger Bands ( the EMA 14) or else the RSI lines crossing over the 50 level and green above red. Exits are the price action going outside the outer upper BB band and then fading back inside of both inner and outer bands or RSI green and red crossing such that green fades quicker than red. Entries and exits are managed with alerts/notifications to minimize screen time. The first trade began on 2/27 at 8:10 AM ended 2hours later. 50 shares taken gained $ 1.50 each for a total of $75.00 realized profit in the long scalp. The second trade on 2/28 was taken in the premarket at 6:45 AM EST with again 50 shares taken then closed at 9:15 AM for a 150 minute trade. Realized profit was $1.20 per share and $60 overall. Overall, there were 4.5 hours in the trades yielding $135.00 or $30 hr for the time in the trade. Risk was minimal as trades were taken at the lows with a stop loss outside the BB and below them. Time spent on the screen amounted to less than 30 minutes overall making the realized profit excellent for the time and effort expended. This idea illustrates good use of a Bollinger Band strategy coupled with alerts and notifications. Notably, I did not spend any effor adjusting the stop losses during the trade as I am very confident of the setup and the strategy. Today is another day for the same trade.
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
XNGUSD Short BiasXNGUSD on the 30-minute chart is accompanied by drawn-in trendlines, a Fibonacci retracement as well as an anchored VWAP and volume profile. An RSI indicator is also added. Price hit a recent high of 2.81 on May 19th and then trended down to 2.11. While a 50% retracement might have been expected ( to 2.46) price only rose to 2.42. I consider this as showing selling pressure from sellers to be slightly exceeding buying pressure. Short bias for XNGUSD is confirmed since it is trading below the POC line of the long-term volume profile and below the anchored mean WVAP which are acting as confluent resistance. The RSI topped out at 60 during the retracement and has fallen below 50. Overall, the chart supports a short XNGUSD trade with a stop loss just above VWAP / POC and the target the trendline of support ( green line ) making for a Reward: Risk of about 2:1 Any leveraged forex trade would amplify both potential loss and potential profit.
FXOPEN:XNGUSDShort
by AwesomeAvani
BOIL vs KOLD Natural Gas Leveraged ETFs : LONG KOLDThe KOLD / Boil Ratio is shown here on a daily char. A rising ratio level indicates KOLD is rising and BOIL is falling making the ratio rather extreme If KOLD rises 10% in a week and so BOIL falls, in a hypothetical say they start out 140 and 20 respectively and KOLD goes to 154 while KOLD falls to 18 the ratio moves from 7 to 154/18 = 8.55 the ratio moves 22% for the week. What does this all mean ? With triple leveraging and management fees taken out long leveraged ETF shares may experience time decay on a daily basis. Share values are net after expenses. From the chart's visible the only time the ratio fell and BOIL was the long play was September 25,'23 to November 15, '23 and December 14, '23 to January 14, '24. In 2023 prior to late September KOLD was always the long play, In 2024, after January 15 and to the present KOLD is the long play and the ratio is accelerating and getting more volatile as it is potentially getting over-extended. Combined volume in the range of 20 M /day is 2X showing great interest by market participants. I conclude especially since natural gas spot prices are falling as recession fears are not yet in the past, that KOLD is the leveraged gas futures ETF to take long. This trader considers the management fees as a cost of business. The futures are stratified and leveraged obivously the cost brings value. I will take shares of KOLD and take a call or two along the way for an expiration in the fall whenever price rises about an even $5.00 amount to be assured of the lowest price. I will follow KOLD on a 60-90 minute chart looking for topping wicks or a price fall under the EMA 7 as a sign that it should be on watch for a market top. Frankly, I do not expect to see it. This is because on the 2-time frame RSI indicator ( by Chris Moody) with the 4H in green and the 1W in red, both lines are rising and in a healthy 75 +/- range. If they top out and fall, then I again think I might be seeing bullish divergence and put the trade on watch. For those who trade VWAP bands and volume profile, the ratio has been in an obvious breakout since early November with a pullback in mid-December after the ratio rose outside the third upper VWAP band. Using the VWAP bands and the volume profile will make any fades very obvious most especially on lower time frames.
AMEX:KOLDLong
by AwesomeAvani
3
BOIL ( 3x Nat Gas ETF) Reverses to UpsideOn shown on the 15 minute chart with a VWAP band/line setup anchored to the July 1st pivot high. BOIL is in a VWAP breakout since bottoming mid-day July 17th. Confirming the reversal are the Price Volume Trend Oscillator printing a green histogram and an upgoing signal line as well as the zero-lag MACD with upgoing parallel lines crossing the zero-horizontal line. Price has crossed over the mean VWAP. On the dual time frame RSI indicator both the lower and higher RS lines ( blue and black) are above the 50 level and the lower time frame is higher highlighting bullish momentum. I will take a long trade targeting based on the VWAP lines first $65 and then $68. I will open equal amounts of call options striking the targets with expirations on July 28th. I seek a 100% ROI in the next 6-8 trading days. On an intraday basis, I may enter a low DTE call option at the low of day ( typically mid-morning) and exit at the high of day the same or next day.
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
BOIL- Go Long SetupBOIL has had a busy month with the resurgence of natural gas prices and the reverse split six trading days ago. I analyze it as having further upside. On the 30-minute chart I have added two anchored VWAPs to the left on separate pivot points. This serves to make out dynamic support and resistance. Price has crossed over the mean VWAP zone which is between the heavy black lines. In confluence with that, it has crossed over the POC line of the volume profile represents the price point with the highest total trading volume over the visible time interval. Above price are the two targets being one and two standard deviations above the mean aVWAP. The volume indicator shows increasing relative volume overall as a sign of accumulation which generally results in price appreciation from the demand trend. I will set the stop loss at $.10 below the POC line and take a long position. One third of the position will come off upon each target advancing the stop loss to above the entry and making the trade risk-free. Another third with TP2 and finally the The remaining third will run on a trailing stop so I do not spend time micromanaging a smaller position. I believe that my overall bullish bias will be rewarded yet again over the near term.
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
BOIL Day Trade Recap and ReviewBOIL the 3x Leveraged ETF of natural gas futures has been highly volatile. Volatility yields high profits if there are good entries and trade management. This past Friday BOIL was doing a reverse split ( 20 shares become one) which I considered to be an opportunity for high profit because a higher number of traders would have eyes on the chart. The 15-minute chart is shown here with an anchored VWAP from 2 days earlier. At market open price reversed a downtrend after the reverse split in the premarket. It got support from the line one standard deviation below the mean VWAP. My first considered entry was the second green HA candle in the reversal with a stop loss at the pivot low of the red candles. However I passed on this entry and instead entered upon price crossing the mean VWAP. The entry was supported by the indicators showing Z score and volatility. The entry was made more precise by analysis on the 5-minute chart. The stop loss was set at the value of the close of the last candle to close below VWAP. After that, trade management was routine. Every time price went up 1% I raised the stop loss by the same amount until getting up 6% Once at that level, I changed to a trailing stop loss of 2% so I could pay attention to other trading chores. At the same time, I set an alert for when the price crossed to above two standard deviations above the mean anchored VWAP. I did this because this is the overvalued overbought area where institutional traders will set sell orders either short selling or closing profitable trades. The resultant reversal would diminish my unrealized profits. In this case, I got the alert and closed the position without the trailing loss. The trade resulted in a profit of 12% without use of leverage or margin other than the leverage imbedded in BOIL inself.
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
BOIL a scalp trade LONGBOIL had trended down from a high about May 19 until June 2nd when it reversed and gained for one week before resuming its trend down. This can be seen on the half hour chart. The The attached RS indicator shows the decreasing strength trending down from 65 to 40 over the past few trading days. Upon drawing trendline support and resistance. I note that a descending or falling wedge pattern is evident. This is a bullish chart pattern predictive of a price action reversal. A volume profile is added to the chart showing the highest volume of trading at the POC line corresponding to a price of $2.58. I will trade a long trade on BOIL by way of a buy stop at $ 2.59 with a stop loss at $2.57. The target will be the top of the high volume area of the volume profile @ $2.74. This trade will risk $0.02 compared with a potential profit of $ 0.15 yielding a reward to risk of 7.5. As it turns out, I did this exact same trade this past Wednesday June 7rh. Besides 100 shares I will buy one call option striking $2.50 with an expiration of 6/30 to leverage the trade.
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
41
UNG continues to rise UNG the ETF that tracks natural gas futures has continued on a significant uptrend since June 1st The 2H chart suggests to be that the trend will continue this upcoming week. UNG is now above the POC line of the long multi-session volume profile. UNG has had support from the VWAP line representing two standard deviations below the mean. In recent days, price has crossed that mean VWAP in a sign of bullish momentum. The volatility oscillator indicator is showing bullish volatility while the RSI is high above 80 and staying there without any fade to suggest bearish divergence. Overall, I will continue to run my position without any partial take profit. My target is the VWAP line that is two standard deviations above the mean anchored VWAP and so presently about 7.85. Any new trade would have the same target while setting the stop loss just below the POC line.
AMEX:UNGLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
Is KOLD getting chilled out ?KOLD's trend down may be continuing. They say weather climate conditions are for things heating up. this trader concurs albeit from one of the traditional hottest places in the entire USA and so with that bias come hell or bitter winter chill. On the chart, a persistent trend down for KOLD underneath the Ichimoku cloud of the Luxalgo indicator is easily seen. Luxalgo's Bollinger Band oscillator shows that price is riding down along the lower BB band without any outlook for a reprive. Furthermore, price is well below the high volume area of the volume profile and in the lowermost bands of the anchored VWAP. On the MACD indicator, the MACD and signal are both trending down and well below zero. In short, the value of KOLD is crashing down. Any traders long are best to consider liquidating while any value remains. I am not long KOLD and happily continue my long positions in BOIL, the inverse of it until analysis dictates otherwise.
AMEX:KOLDShort
by AwesomeAvani
BOIL Natural Gas Price Recover and ReverseBOIL on the 2H chart has bottomed and begun the reversal as this leveraged natural gas fund sees a red to green in the HA candles as well as the volume. Price has crossedover the POC line of the long-term volume profile and exploded from a Doji candle below the mean anchored VWAP with consecutive engulfing bullish candles. The Luxalgo AI predictive indicator suggests a parabolic move higher and a correction in the first part of next week. I have already profited 700% on this trade that I have been in since my earlier idea on BOIL. I will add to the position now but be watchful for a reversal of the reversal while watching a volatility indicator to set the exit.
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
163
UNG Natural Gas ( Unleveraged) ETF LongOn the 4 hour chart- UNG had a head and shoulder pattern in May from which it descended in a gradual fashion from May 25 to June 2nd and then reversed upward. The reversal occurred at two standard deviations below the mean anchored VWAP and so deep in the oversold area. Price has crossed over the higher VWAP line and so is in the band between the mean VWAP and one standard deviation below it. Volumes have been persistent. Importantly, the zero lag MACD shows the lines in parallel and crossing the zero horizontal line from underneath. I see UNG properly set up for a long trade. Fundamentally, the hot summer may bring increased natural gas consumption to make electricity for air conditioning. The dam disaster in Ukraine may close down the biggest nuclear plant in Europe because of cooling lakes potentially compromised. Natural gas may be an alternative fuel to make electricity. Compressed NG from the US may become more important to Europe, especially since the Nordic Stream pipeline issue developed. All in all, I think natural gas prices are likely to rise.
AMEX:UNGLong
by AwesomeAvani
3
Can KOLD make it through the summer?KOLD is a leveraged inverse of natural gas futures contracts. Natural gas prices could see a rise this summer as it is fuel for electric plants to make electricity to power air conditioning and charge all the new electric cars. Hydroelectric and wind might be green put they contribute little to the large power grid. NG is better than coal and diesel. So if a supply and demand imbalnce develops what does Eco 101 say will happen to prices ? KOLD will go down and BOIL, its inverse will go up as rising current prices will reflect in futures contracts in months ahead. On the chart, KOLD is seen in an uptrend and the RSI has crossed over the 50 line while price has crossed over the POC line of the profile ( mean price at which the most shares traded over the given date range). Bullish momentum is slightly dominating with moving averages diverging. A volume void above may result in a small jump along the way. Will the summer heat drive up NG prices and make KOLD melt?
AMEX:KOLD
by AwesomeAvani
UNG- Buy at a BottomAs shown on the 4H chart, UNG has been trending down albeit with a triple top in April and a head and shoulders in early May. It is presently at the bottom of the long term volume profile and two standard deviations below the running mean anchored VWAP. This is deep undervalued territory. On the MACD indicator, the K and D lines intersecting while under the histogram which is positive portrays an early entry signal. I believe that it is inevitable that UNG will have an uptrend in June as it did in April and May. The uptrends had a slope of about 1.5-3% per day while underway. I will take a long trade in UNG and potentially BOIL while leveraging XNGUSD on forex. For UNG, the targets are the POC line of the volume profile, and mean VWAP , the final target is one standard deviation above VWAP while the stop loss is three standard deviations below VWAP ( thin green line).
AMEX:UNGLong
by AwesomeAvani
UNG retracement complete- to uptrend again.UNG as shown on the 15-minute chart had an untrend for a week culminated by the very steep finish to the uptrend into resistance followed by a very rapid bounce down and retracement. A standard 50% Fibonacci retracement is now complete. UNG appears to be bounding off the POC line of the volume profile which coincides with the 0.5 Fib level. UNG tracks the natural gas futures, especially the leading month. It appears now ready to resume an uptrend. This is a directional bearing on the trend for any instrument based on natural gas prices including XNGUSD on forex.
AMEX:UNGLong
by AwesomeAvani
2
Can XNGUSD short squeeze?XNGUSD on the weekly chart showing two years of price action with weekly candles shows the rise in 2021 into spring 2022 then printing a head and shoulders pattern and the reversal to deep into the support/demand zone. The volume profile shows the majority of the trading during this time period to have been between $3.75 and $ 8.50. It would seem likely that there are a sizeable amount of short sellers holding positions with unrealized profits of 50% to as much as 300%. This past week had the best buying volume in six months and provides bulls with optimism If natural gas can gain some momentum and put in green candles with a decent price range for a couple of weeks in a row, the combination of new buyers with new interest and short sellers liquidating and buying to cover their unrealized gains might ignite a bit of a rally for natural gas. I will keep natural gas on watch. I will keep in mind that a breakout without a corresponding volume the response could be a fakeout. A stop loss would be $1.95 below the support zone while the final target would be $4.75 below the POC line. Interval take profits would be 10% of the forex lots every time the price rises by $0.50 for risk management and good profit taking while underway.
FXOPEN:XNGUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
BOIL LONG a 3x leverage Natural Gas ETF Natural Gas prices have finally reversed on the FOREX markets after significant downtrends from a historical high. BOIL on the hourly chart has reversed a two-week downtrend and today has an increasing volume. Ir bounced off the lower Fibonacci levels and is looking to revert to the mean. Price was undervalued below the green fair value zone at the VWAP +/- one standard deviation but is now heading back into it from the buying pressure. As a 3x leveraged ETF is prone to more volatility than the unleveraged UNG counterpart. I will play this with a call option contract expiring 3/31 striking $4.00 and expecting at least a 50% return in the upcoming 8 trading days. The risk here is that this is just a short pullback on the downtrend but getting in early on a long and watching carefully is the approach I have taken.
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
46
XNGUSD ready to reverse recent downtrend LONGOn the daily chart here XNGUSD had a head and shoulders or double top last summer and fall and has now trended down to support. I see this as a prime place to take a long position. The decline of the overvalued USD contributes to this idea as does the persistent demand in Europe for compressed / liquid NG and the ongoing war there that could eventually grind into WWIII. ETFs such as BOIL , UNG and UNL may be a good way to make this trade if not in the forex market.
FXOPEN:XNGUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
BOIL UPDATE LONGTERMOn the daily chart, BOIL price has never been lower and the relative volume has never been higher in the past five years. Being mindful, this is leveraged it falls faster than an the unleveraged counterpart of the same commodity ( UNG INL) However moves in the opposite directions are also amplified. Horizontal red lines are drawn in consideration of pivots on the 4H. Price was nearly $600 in 2019. Can you think of a fundamental reason why price cannot rise from the present price to something closer to that of 2019. To go from $4 to $600 is 150X in otherwords 15000%. Is there anything wrong with my math or the chart?
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
4
XNGUSD ready to reverse recent downtrend LONGXNGUSD has been on a long downtrend. On the 1 H Chart, a falling wedge is seen awaiting a breakout. Moving Average slopes are decreasing their negativity towards zero. ATR / Volatility is decreasing as is the downtrend momentum on the average directional index indicator. I see this as a long swing trade setting up for forex or alternatively a natural gas ETF like UNL / UNG or a natural gas stock like LNG. This trade would be propelled by the dollar losing strength, inflation being sustained, WW III in Europe continuing and the weather turning cooler the remainder of the winter.
FXOPEN:XNGUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
3
LNG Natural Gas Energy Play LongAMEX:LNG LNG having trended down with the fall in the price of natural gas is now sitting in the support zone. I anticipate an up-trending retracement to potentially as up as the resistance zone. Rising relative volume and rising relative strength lend support to a reversal as does the consolidation in the price of natural gas after a recent fall. As a swing long trade the stop loss is below the support zone with the first target of about $ 160 or a 50% retracement and the final target at $ 167 before resistance.
LLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
XNGUSD ready to reverse recent downtrend LONGGLOBALPRIME:XNGUSD XNGUSD a few weeks back downtrended afer breaking the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern down to the support of a double bottom formed in early August. Volume profiles are added to the 30 minute chart. I see an uptrend retracement of the recent downtrend and accordingly the following: Stop Loss at 7.64 just below the recent swing low Target 1 8.59 the bottom of the high volume areas and near the Fib 0.382 Target 2 8.84 just under the Fib 0.50 Target 3 9.15 just under the POCs of the volume profiles and the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. Fundamentals: decreasing DXY will cause a relative rise in commodities; winter is coming storage of compressed NG is underway and increasing demand. All is all, this forex pair is ready for a long trade.
XLong
by AwesomeAvani
1