UNP
Union Pacific dips continue to attract buyers.Union Pacific Corporation - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 204.44 (stop at 194.90)
Prices have reacted from 183.70.
Levels below 205 continue to attract buyers.
This stock has seen good sales growth.
The primary trend remains bullish.
A break of 221.71 is needed to confirm follow through bullish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 227.88 and 232.88
Resistance: 216 / 222 / 230
Support: 210 / 205 / 203
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Bullish on Union Pacific Corporation. UNPSomething really cool is happening at UNP. And by that, we surmise some more action to the topside on this one. Momentum growth, pivots and fibtime levels are backing up this standpoint also. Having said that nothing comes ahead of the actual, correct, accurate wave count. And that is a skillset that only comes with experience.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in green with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
UNP longEntry price: 196,5-198$
Target 1: 212-215$
Target 2: 228-230$
RSI: approaches 20 level, the asset is oversold
Keltner channel: the price is beyond the lower band
Conclusions: RSI and Keltner Channel suggest that the trend reversal might occur. Moreover, the price approaches the strong resistance level, thus the long position is recommended in that zone.
No financial advice
Union Pacific Signaling Buy Train AheadBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 17, 2021 with a closing price of 201.93.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 203.49 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2.45% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.132% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 9.312% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% rise must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 22 trading bars; half occur within 32 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 38 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
IYT Transport Golden cross continuation in septemberIYT Transport Golden cross on Aug 21, looking for continuation. You can see the accumulation candles in the chart. The top 4 holdings are FDX, UNP, NSC and KSU, which make up over 40% of ETF. Using seasonality charts, IYT in sept is up 2.5% the past 4 years.
UNP PUT spread 165/150UNP PUT SPREAD 165/150 September 20th expiry
Price was $4.35 kind of expensive, market is down trending due to tariffs and weak rate cut also china escalation with yuan devalue + agricultural stoppage on imports from USA.
May continue until Powell speaks up about another cut, as far as it goes this sounds like a good play.
Light risk, Medium Reward, Pricey spread.
Target is $8.70 profit vs $2.75 risk.
UNP SwingUNP got downgraded today,
Took a beating while market is running,in addition to that, if FDX beats the earning tomorrow.
UNP can run with them too due to sector gains.
So we'll take a small position on unp with a tight stoploss.
Bounce play on unp
Entry at $162,
stoploss $161
profit taking at 163.9
UNP LongUNP nice earnings winner looks great here to start position.
Entry : 164.50
Target : 200+ First target, 225 Second, 250 Third target.
Stop loss : 125 ishh or wider stop 120.
I am long this stock for long term, till February 2019 and I will re-evaluate this position after FEB 2019. I am looking to hold at-least half of the next year as well so please position accordingly.
UNP at Resistance pre-earningsUNP hit a resistance off the Weekly + Monthly levels today with earnings coming up in exactly one week. Volatility is above average which makes buying vertical spreads attractive. I'm taking the August 90/87.5 Put spreads which were selling for 0.32. Max profit on these is 2.50 which would happen in a massive move. Getting them cheap will let me go profitable with a 5% earnings move with a 3:1 reward/risk if the options expire in August at or below 88.70.
DOW Transports To Retest Recent Lows(Note: DOWT is no longer in a bear market after rallying the last two weeks)
2015 was suppose to be just another year of the epic bull market created by reckless central banking policies. Some Wall Street estimates for the S&P 500 were as high as 2,300. Me? I projected a contraction to 1,810 in mid-January.
Whether or not the SPX will reach my target within the next 10 weeks, or so, is uncertain; but what has been quite clear is the scaffolding holding with risk assets around the global has been crumbling for sometime.
In " Is A Storm Brewing? How History is Repeating Itself ," I was clear and concise in what 2015 had in store (posted Jan. 13, 2015):
I support the idea that we are on the precipitous of something disastrous.
Those who constantly look at underlying factors and notice the shifts in the FX, commodity and economic data are witnessing that the latest boom cycle is on its last leg.
In essence, the post was a summery of the marco trends few wrote about because everybody indulged in the feel-good of rising stock prices.
The post ended quite ominously: "2015 is going to be mercurial…"
On March 26, I indicated that the DOW transports looked technically weak. Price action had been consolidating early in the year, much like the SPX. The index made several lower highs, higher lows and finally broke support at 8600.
Nobody was even looking at the transports as a potential catalyst to drag the broader markets lower, even though that is historically the case.
For instance, Cowen Group's Head of Sales, David Seaburg, said, as late as June 25 (after the the transports already began weakening underneath consolidation), "Everyone is up in arms about the transports, but the underperformance has very little to do with a weak economy and has more to do with the structural issues within the sector."
Seaburg also said that "I DEFINITELY don't see any downside (broader markets) necessarily." Almost a month-to-the-day, not only did the DOW and SPX hit their first 10 percent correction in four years, the DOW transports fell into bear market territory. Awkward.
Those that live by subjectivity, die by subjectivity.
The broader markets did receive a massive bounce following the largest NYSE short-interest since the Lehman Brothers collapse, but the transports has been rejected twice from 8,250, or the 23.6% Fib. retracement from the 2012-lows.
It's important to note that central bank credibility is fading fast, and traders will become more wary as the year winds down. Structurally, the index looks weak as earnings have been lackluster to not good at all.
EMAs are showing bullishness on the daily, as they are sloping upward. However, a close above 8,250 will be needed to garner any significant technical buying in my opinion.
Price action is within a large symmetrical triangle with price support of 7,970 cutting through the middle. This key, near-term support level could determine whether the index will test triangle support, which is supported by price support of 7,790.
A confirmed close below the triangle support will cause transports to retest the 2012 ascending trend line. I expect fundamentals to continue to deteriorate into 4Q, and the transports to challege 2011's trend (between 7,200 and 7,300).
Conversely, a close above triangle resistance could cause a rally to 8,500.
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