Unum Market Commentary: JSE Struggles For Direction As Rand Weig
On Wednesday, a weaker South African Rand weighed on local shares, holding the index back from a further advance. On the day, the All Share closed higher by 0.21% but really struggled to find a real direction as financial shares closed lower by 1.14% while other domestic names such as Shoprite, Bidvest and Vodacom declined by 4.23%, 2.14% and 2.03% respectively. On the upside, BHP Billiton closed at the highest level since August 2014, while Nepi Rockcastle, British American Tobacco and Glencore helped the index to remain in positive territory. In Europe, indices were mostly higher while the UK's FTSE100 saw a decline of 0.71%. In the United States, indices closed in positive territory as the S&P 500 held onto the 2900 level while the Nasdaq closed at another all-time high.
JSE Major Sectors
Resources 10 +1.59%
Industrial 25 +0.17%
Financial 15 -1.14%
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Join the Unum Trading Desk on Friday 7 Sep 2018 starting at 14:15 as we look to trade the EURUSD Forex pair on the NFP data. t.me
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In currencies, the South African Rand trades as follows:
USDZAR +0.36% to 14.41
GBPZAR +0.35% to 18.77
EURZAR -0.32% to 16.86
Gold trades at $1210
Platinum at $794
Brent Crude Oil at $77.62
International Markets
This morning, Asian equities are as follows:
Nikkei 225 (+0.16%)
Hang Seng (-0.73%)
Shanghai Composite (-0.81%)
Latam Markets closed as follows:
Merval 25 (+1.46%)
Bovespa (+1.18%)
INMEX (+0.39%)
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Company News
Murray and Roberts Holdings - Audited annual provisional results for the 12 months ended 30 June 2018
Salient features
- R21,8 billion Revenue from continuing operations, increased by 2% (FY2017: R21,4 billion)
- R267 million Attributable earnings increased by 456% (FY2017: R48 million)
- 50 cents Gross annual dividend increased by 11% to 50 cents per ordinary share (FY2017: 45 cents)
- 112 cents Diluted continuing HEPS, increased by 56% (FY2017: 72 cents)
- R2 billion Cash, net of debt, increased by 11% (30 June 2017: R1,8 billion)
- R30,1 billion Order book for continuing operations increased by 12%(30 June 2017: R26,9 billion)
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Aus miners:
BHP Billiton (-0.08%)
Rio Tinto (-0.44%)
S32 (+0.98%)
FANGs
Facebook (-0.20%)
Amazon (+3.38%)
Netflix (-0.12%)
Google (-1.51%)
FTSE Miners:
Anglo American plc (-1.83%)
BHP Billiton plc (-0.70%)
Glencore plc (-0.78%)
Alibaba Holdings (+0.17%)
Tencent Holdings (-1.11%)
Share Link: bit.ly/JoinUnum
For any trading related queries or advice, please contact the Unum Trading desk: 011 384 2929
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The Unum Capital Trading Desk
Unum
Unum Market Commentary: Global Equities Mixed As Dollar Firms
Although gaining on Tuesday, global equities were up only marginally following strong buying activity on Monday. The S&P 500 Index, which tested 2900 for the first time ever, added 0.03% for the session, while Dow Jones Industrial Average traded above 26000. In the tech sector, the NASDAQ Composite held above the 8000 level, adding 0.15% on the day. In Europe, the DAX was lower by 0.09% while the UK's FTSE100 index and France's CAC40 added 0.52% and 0.11% respectively. On the local market, the All Share Index closed above the 60000 level, adding 0.64% for the session while the Top 40 index was higher by 0.61%, lead by South 32 (6.26%), Richemont (2.34%) and Bidvest (2.23%). On the downside British American Tobacco, Shoprite and Kumbda Iron Ore weighed on the bourse.
JSE Major Sectors
Resources 10 +0.35%
Industrial 25 +0.60%
Financial 15 +1.07%
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Join the Unum Trading Desk on Friday 7 Sep 2018 starting at 14:15 as we look to trade the EURUSD Forex pair on the NFP data. t.me
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In currencies, the South African Rand trades as follows:
USDZAR -0.00% to 14.23
GBPZAR -0.10% to 18.29
EURZAR -0.07% to 16.62
Gold trades at $1209
Platinum at $793
Brent Crude Oil at $76.92
International Markets
This morning, Asian equities are as follows:
Nikkei 225 (+0.14%)
Hang Seng (+0.18%)
Shanghai Composite (-0.21%)
Latam Markets closed as follows:
Merval 25 (-1.58%)
Bovespa (-0.59%)
INMEX (-0.70%)
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Company News
Master Drilling Group Limited - Report to shareholders Unaudited interim report for the six months ended 30 June 2018
Salients Features
- USD Revenue was up by 11.3%
- USD Earnings per share decreased by 4.5% to 6.3 cents
- ZAR Earnings per share decreased by 10,9% to 77,5 cents
- USD Headline earnings per share decreased by 10.6% to 5.9 cents
- ZAR Headline earnings per share decreased by 16,6% to 72,6 cents
- Committed order book of USD114.4 million
- Pipeline of USD358.2 million
- Following dividend for 2017, dividend will be considered at year-end
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Aus miners:
BHP Billiton (+1.26%)
Rio Tinto (+0.19%)
S32 (+1.71%)
FANGs
Facebook (-0.68%)
Amazon (+0.27%)
Netflix (+1.07%)
Google (-0.83%)
FTSE Miners:
Anglo American plc (+3.26%)
BHP Billiton plc (+3.83%)
Glencore plc (+2.07%)
Alibaba Holdings (-1.36%)
Tencent Holdings (-0.66%)
Mr Price Group, something to watch for tomorrowLester Davids, our Trading Desk analyst, has sent out a flash note on Mr Price Group.
"Today the price tested resistance right on the 200dma as well as the underside of the prior support level. Has run very hard over the last week however could consolidate around this level."
Flash note: USDZARUnum flash note on the USDZAR from our Trading Desk analyst, Lester Davids.
Chart 1: USDZAR: We currently trade just below the R14.25 resistance, with the Rand having gained on a weaker USD. The monthly chart shows this to be the top of the bull flag/channel.
Chart 2: Another view (again the monthly chart), shows the potential start of a "right shoulder" of a long term inverse H&S formation.
support and resistance levels from the bank analysts (Investec) this morning confirm these ranges (R1 14.2430, S1 14.15)
Unum Market Commentary: Equities Hit Record High Global equity markets started the week on a strong note, continuing the upward momentum following comments last week by the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the committee sees "gradual" interest rate increases and no clear signs that inflation would accelerating above target. Adding to the "risk-on" sentiment was the revised trade agreement between the US and Mexico as well as news that the Chinese central bank would look to support the currency. On the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P500 (all time high) closed higher by 1.01% and 0.77% respectively, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index also hit a record high, topping 8000 index points for the first time ever. On the JSE, the All Share Index saw it's best level since January of this year, boosted by a strong performance out of financial shares as the Fini15 added 2.17% on the day.
JSE Major Sectors
Resources 10 +2.04%
Industrial 25 +1.06%
Financial 15 +2.17%
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Join the Unum Trading Desk on Friday 7 Sep 2018 starting at 14:15 as we look to trade the EURUSD Forex pair on the NFP data. t.me
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In currencies, the South African Rand trades as follows:
USDZAR +0.48% to 14.22
GBPZAR +0.33% to 18.31
EURZAR +0.42% to 16.60
Gold trades at $1207
Platinum at $816
Brent Crude Oil at $76.48
International Markets
This morning, Asian equities are as follows:
Nikkei 225 (+0.39%)
Hang Seng (+0.26%)
Shanghai Composite (0.00%)
Latam Markets closed as follows:
Merval 25 (+1.06%)
Bovespa (+2.19%)
INMEX (+1.73%)
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Company News
Homechoice International - Interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2018 and cash dividend declaration
Financial Highlights
- Revenue up 16.1% to R1.5 billion
- Retail sales up 18.9% to R856 million
- Loan disbursements up 30.0% to R853 million
- Credit extended on digital channels up 54.7% to 39.1% of all credit
- Cash generated from operations up 37.9% to R240 million
- Headline earnings per share up 14.7% to 250 cents -
- Customer base up 5.0% to 836 000
- Interim dividend up 15.9% to 95 cents
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Aus miners:
BHP Billiton (+0.97%)
Rio Tinto (+0.75%)
S32 (+2.37%)
FANGs
Facebook (+1.61%)
Amazon (+1.17%)
Netflix (+1.61%)
Google (+1.58%)
FTSE Miners:
UK Market Closed on 27-Aug-2018
Alibaba Holdings (+3.68%)
Tencent Holdings (+1.16%)
Share Link: bit.ly/JoinUnum
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Please feel free to contact the Unum Trading desk for any advice or trading related queries.
011 384 2929
Unum Market Commentary: Global Equities Firm As Dollar Weakens On Friday, the South African equity market continued to tick higher, buoyed by a general risk-on sentiment as well as a weaker US Dollar and lower US Bond Yields. On the day, the All Share Index added 1.02% while the Top 40 Index was higher by 1.17% lead by Pepkor, Glencore and Naspers while South 32, Standard Bank and South 32 weighed on the index.
In Europe, equity markets were higher with the EuroStoxx50 index adding 0.29%, lead by CRH and Nokia that added 1.86% and 1.37% respectively. In the US, markets ended the week on a high note with the the Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq adding 0.52%, 0.62% and 0.86% respectively. This morning equity markets in Asia are on the front foot, with the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite higher by 0.85%, 2.17% and 1.43% respectively (6:25am).
JSE Major Sectors
Resources 10 +0.98%
Industrial 25 +1.41%
Financial 15 +0.52%
Join the Unum Trading Desk on Friday 7 Sep 2018 starting at 14:15 as we look to trade the EURUSD Forex pair on the NFP data. t.me
In currencies, the South African Rand trades as follows:
USDZAR +0.04% to 14.26
GBPZAR +0.09% to 18.33
EURZAR +0.10% to 16.58
Gold trades at $1212
Platinum at $791
Brent Crude Oil at $76.09
International Markets
This morning, Asian equities are as follows:
Nikkei 225 (+0.85%)
Hang Seng (+2.17%)
Shanghai Composite (+1.43%)
Latam Markets closed as follows:
Merval 25 (-5.11%)
Bovespa (+0.83%)
INMEX (-0.22%)
Company News
MMI Holdings - Trading statement for the year ended 30 June 2018
Shareholders are reminded that MMI executive management has introduced a number of recent changes to the organisation in order to focus on the practical implementation of our strategy. We have reset the business to provide a strong foundation for improved performance and future growth. We are confident that these changes will create value for shareholders in due course.
Shareholders are advised that the diluted core headline earnings per share, the group's main earnings measure to monitor the operational performance of the group, is expected to decrease by between 5 and 15 percent relative to the previous year.
The diluted core headline earnings expectation equates to a range from 170cps to 190cps for F2018, compared to 200cps in F2017. Diluted core headline earnings has been negatively affected during the period by various factors including increased investment in client engagement activities, higher expenditure in technology, and weaker persistency in Metropolitan Retail. Also, MMI’s share of losses increased, in line with business plans, on new initiatives such as the India joint venture. Momentum Corporate profits have improved with group underwriting results showing an improvement year-on- year, whilst good expense management also contributed to their improved result. Strong mortality and morbidity profits across the group boosted core earnings.
Shareholders are further advised that the group's basic earnings per share is expected to decrease by between 5 and 15 percent (to between 84cps and 94cps) relative to 98cps earned in the comparative period. Headline earnings per share is expected to show a decrease of between 15 and 25 percent (to between 89cps and 101cps) relative to 118cps for the comparative period. Basic and headline earnings have both been negatively affected by significant basis changes in Momentum Retail and Metropolitan Retail and the weak investment markets of F2017 resulting in a lower starting asset base for the current year.
Basic earnings decreased by less than headline earnings mainly due to a reduction in the impairment of intangibles compared to F2017.
Note that MMI excludes fair value gains, impairment of intangibles, movement in value of MMI shares held in policyholder funds, investment variances and non-recurring items from core headline earnings whereas basic earnings include all these items.
MMI will be releasing final results for the year ended 30 June 2018 on 5 September 2018. The forecast financial information contained in this trading statement to shareholders is based on information available at the time of publication and has not been reviewed and reported on by the Company’s auditors.
Aus miners:
BHP Billiton (+1.31%)
Rio Tinto (+0.98%)
S32 (+0.59%)
FANGs
Facebook (+1.01%)
Amazon (+0.13%)
Netflix (+5.79%)
Google (+1.28%)
FTSE Miners:
Anglo American plc (+2.54%)
BHP Billiton plc (+2.17%)
Glencore plc (+3.30%)
Alibaba Holdings (+1.16%)
Tencent Holdings (+1.36%)
Please feel free to contact the Unum Trading Desk for any assistance or trading related queries.
Unum Trading Desk : 011 384 2929
Unum Market Commentary: JSE Edges Higher; Rand WeakensOn Thursday a weaker South African Rand helped to boost the All Share Index by 0.14% to close the session at 52205. Despite the slight weakness in the local currency, SA-focused shares such as Shoprite, Discovery and Capitec also advanced by over 2.5% while weakness was seen in Anglo American, Mediclinic International and British American Tobacco as the shares declined by 3.20%, 2.27% and 1.69% respectively. In Europe, equity markets were slightly softer as the EuroStoxx50 index declined by 0.02%, weighed down by shares such as Bayer and Daimler. In the US, the Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq declined by 0.30%, 0.17% and 0.13% respectively.
JSE Major Sectors
Resources 10 -1.12%
Industrial 25 +0.53%
Financial 15 +0.44%
Join the Unum Trading Desk on Friday 7 Sep 2018 starting at 14:15 as we look to trade the EURUSD Forex pair on the NFP data. t.me
In currencies, the South African Rand trades as follows:
USDZAR -0.17% to 14.37
GBPZAR -0.21% to 18.42
EURZAR -0.10% to 16.61
Gold trades at $1193
Platinum at $780
Brent Crude Oil at $75.15
International Markets
This morning, Asian equities are as follows:
Nikkei 225 (+0.65%)
Hang Seng (-0.77%)
Shanghai Composite (-0.35%)
Latam Markets closed as follows:
Merval 25 (-1.20%)
Bovespa (-1.65%)
INMEX (-0.23%)
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Company News
Discovery Holdings - Trading Statement
In accordance with paragraph 3.4(b) of the JSE Listings Requirements, issuers must publish a trading statement as soon as they have a reasonable degree of certainty that earnings per share and / or headline earnings per share for the next reporting period will differ by at least 20% from that of the previous corresponding period.
Shareholders are advised that: - Headline earnings per share (undiluted) for the year ended 30 June 2018 (“current period”) is expected to increase in the range of 30% to 35%, to between 888 cents and 922 cents over the prior year ended 30 June 2017 (“prior period”) (2017: 683.1 cents); and - Earnings per share (undiluted) is expected to increase in the range of 25% to 30%, to between 855 cents and 889 cents (2017: 684.2 cents) over the prior period.
It is practice for the Company to issue a trading statement on “normalised” headline earnings per share, which in management’s view best represents the underlying performance of the Group.
Accordingly, shareholders are advised that: - Normalised profit from operations is expected to increase by between 15% and 20% in the current period over the prior period to between R8.1 billion and R8.5 billion (2017: R7.0 billion); and - Normalised headline earnings per share (undiluted) is expected to increase in the range of 13% to 18%, to between 816 cents and 852 cents over the prior period (2017: 722.2 cents).
Discovery’s results for the year are due to be released on SENS on 4 September 2018.
The financial information on which this trading statement is based has not been reviewed and reported on by the Company’s external auditors.
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Aus miners:
BHP Billiton (+0.95%)
Rio Tinto (-0.05%)
S32 (-0.15%)
FANGs
Facebook (-0.43%)
Amazon (-1.10%)
Netflix (-1.53%)
Google (-0.05%)
FTSE Miners:
Anglo American plc (-2.58%)
BHP Billiton plc (+0.61%)
Glencore plc (+0.81%)
Alibaba Holdings (-3.16%)
Tencent Holdings (-1.67%)
Please feel free to contact the Unum trading desk with any trading related queries: 011 384 2929
iShares Emerging Markets (EEM) - Great Opportunity To Buy hereMorning all,
Our Unum Capital Trading Desk analyst @Lester_Davids published a flash note on EM AMEX:EEM this morning:
"Following a stellar two-year run, emerging markets (EM) have been under significant pressure with the selling pressure commencing in January 2018.
The reason?
The surge in the US Dollar (high interest rates) as well as political fallout has seen a rush for the emerging market exit door.
Now, with US interest rates on a short to medium term decline and the US Dollar experiencing some selling pressure, Emerging Market assets could be poised for a turnaround. The weekly chart setup show a potential double bottom around $42.15 - attractive level to accumulate via the ETF. "
Our Unum clients will recall my idea published on 29 Jan. Emerging Markets: Is The Party Over?
EM has under-performed massively YTD - so this has worked very well if you took my trade. As previously suggested, if we lift our time frames / time horizons we could do even on the % return front.
Original Chart - 29 Jan
Updated Chart - 23 Aug
Unum Market Commentary: JSE Higher As Local Shares AdvanceLocal equity markets continued to trade strongly on Wednesday as a weaker US Dollar helped to bring relief to the battered emerging markets, which have been under significant pressure year-to-date. On the day, the iShares Emerging Markets ETF advanced by 0.79%, continuing to bounce off the YTD lows. On the JSE the All Share Index closed higher by 1.64% while the Top 40 added 1.83%. Leading the way higher was Aspen Pharmacare and Mediclinic that added 5.95% and 4.77% respectively while Quilter and Bidcorp lost 6.83% and 2.19% respectively. In Europe, the DAX was unchanged (+0.01%), while the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 added 0.11% and 0.22% respectively.
JSE Major Sectors
Resources 10 +1.53%
Industrial 25 +2.16%
Financial 15 +1.22%
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In currencies, the South African Rand trades as follows:
USDZAR +1.61% to 14.38
GBPZAR +1.35% to 18.52
EURZAR +1.24% to 16.62
Gold trades at $1198
Platinum at $788
Brent Crude Oil at $74.60
International Markets
This morning, Asian equities are as follows:
Nikkei 225 (+0.36%)
Hang Seng (-0.35%)
Shanghai Composite (-0.38%)
Latam Markets closed as follows:
Merval 25 (+3.07%)
Bovespa (+2.29%)
INMEX (+1.18%)
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Company News
Bidvest Group - Trading Statement
In accordance with Section 3.4(b) (i) of the JSE Listings Requirements, listed companies are required to publish a trading statement as soon as they become reasonably certain that the financial results for the period to be reported will differ by at least 20% from those of the previous corresponding period. Shareholders are advised that:
- The normalised headline earnings per share (HEPS) for the year to 30 June 2018 is expected to be between 11% and 14% higher than the prior year (2017: 1 115.4 cents), translating into normalised HEPS of between 1 238 cents and 1 272 cents. Normalised HEPS, which excludes acquisition costs and amortisation of acquired customer contracts, is a measurement management uses to assess the underlying business performance.
- The HEPS for the year to 30 June 2018 is expected to be between 10% and 12% higher than the prior year (2017: 1 108.2 cents), translating into HEPS of between 1 219 cents and 1 241 cents.
- Basic earnings per share (EPS) for the year to 30 June 2018 is expected to be between 19% and 22% lower, translating into EPS of between 1 116 cents and 1 159 cents, when compared to the previous twelve months (2017: 1 430.3 cents). This is primarily due to a contraction in the share prices of our associates, Adcock Ingram and Comair, compared to material share price increases in the prior year.
The financial information on which this trading statement is based has not been reviewed and reported on by the Group’s auditors. The Group expects its results for the year ended 30 June 2018 to be released on SENS on or about the 3rd of September 2018.
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Aus miners:
BHP Billiton (+1.26%)
Rio Tinto (+0.43%)
S32 (+5.67%)
FANGs
Facebook (+0.59%)
Amazon (+1.14%)
Netflix (+1.90%)
Google (+0.36%)
FTSE Miners:
Anglo American plc (+0.91%)
BHP Billiton plc (+1.58%)
Glencore plc (+0.38%)
Alibaba Holdings (-0.01%)
Tencent Holdings (+0.17%)
For any assistance or trading related queries, please contact the Unum Trading desk on 011 384 2929
FoschiniWith the petrol price increasing, tax increased this year results on a lot of financial pressure on the south african consumer leaving consumers with a lower disposable income. In time of lower disposable income it is natural in an economic sense that there would be an increase on credit purchases from consumers.
With this being said. I think TFG is best positioned for a long on retailers as they reported 7% increase in credit sales together with a decrease in irrevocable debt. This gives me an indication that TFG does collect most debt and they do it quite fast as they have the highest interests rate on debitors with 19%. This is a risk management strategy they use to collect debt as soon as possible from debitors. The faster they collect debt the stornger the balance sheet and the stronger the share price should be theoretically.
Therefore, I remain bullish on the stock.
Here is what I plan to do:
Buy: 174-176
TP: 190
SL: 169
Mike sharesIPL: FY results out today, HEPS came in the middle of guidance. Dividend up, coming in at R7.10 so overall decent. Proposed unbundling has been approved by the board and will be concluded in Q4 2018.Share price is up 1.67% to R201.50 and think medium term is a buy opportunity. Will also benefit from any strength in the ZAR.
BHP Billiton: Results came out this morning, missed slightly on estimates, but announced record dividend payout of $0.63 per share, amounts to R9 at current USDZAR FX rate. Reiterated that the proceeds of the IS shale assets will be returned to shareholders once the sale has been completed. Sale was $10.8 bil, don’t think the tax will be much ( est 0.1mil ) so most of it will be returned. The sale will be completed by the end of OCT 2018, and will say how they will return it, either via share buyback or cash payment ( dividend ), I think the market will prefer the latter. Was down around 3% this morning and recovered almost half of this back. Expensive at current levels, but still think you can buy any weakness here. Obviously the GBPZAR has moved quite a bit that needs to be factored in. Target of 18pounds still comes to mind.
Shoprite: Urggh, what a disappointment, usually my preferred retailer, but trading statement was a massive disappointment, and results today came in at the lower end of the trading statement guidance. Currently down 6.5% at R198, and will need to review this one. Maybe some bottom pickers out there?
Above is the most important company results out today, so what else are we looking at in the market?
Few shares is Last Day to trade today: L2D,MIX,MND,MNP,QLT,TWR ( anyone notice how close MND came to touching R400 yesterday? Is it time to to take some off the table? )
Did anyone buy the dip on NPN? If not, shame on you, gave you a nice opportunity I think. Yeah sure Tencent slowed down for the first time in 5 years ( or something like that ), but still a massive powerhouse in my opinion. Some downgrades coming I think, but still way below most target levels.
Rhamaphoria rally is gone. So where to from now? Well stick to the names of IPL,BVT? Retailers still a sell on any strength think. Names like TRU,CLS comes to mind?
Are we seeing a bit of short covering going on in BID? Keeping an eye on this one for possible short
BAW, just buy it :-) ( We did, REMEMBER THIS IS JUST AN OPINION AND NOT ADVICE )
BLU: Getting killed once again on the back of Cell C results. Haven’t read it yet, heard something about a rights issue coming up?
Rand is stronger today, every day is like a seesaw with this one.
Obviously the market wants this trade wars going on to end now, miners will fly. Seeing more and more CEO commenting how Europe will be the main beneficiary if this trade wars continue between US and China?
Nothing else too important I’m seeing today, let me know if I've missed something dramatically?
Thanks
Michael Porter
Keeping an eye on BIL for resultsAfternoon All,
Remember tomorrow is earnings, should be in around 8:00.