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Potential Trade Idea: Long Heating Oil/Short NatGasRecently our Unum Trading Desk analyst, Lester Davids identified a potential pairs trade on Heating Oil and Nat Gas. "I am bullish on NatGas with a medium term view. We recently saw a break of the downward trend with an inverse head and shoulder developing. In the short term though, we could see a pullback following the breakout. On that basis, one could be short NG and Long Heating Oil." We decided to wait for a better entry level on the medium term trade, rather than playing the ultra-short term reversal. It is now approaching our entry point. On the NG chart: "NG is approaching incline support around the $2.77 level. We also have horizontal support near $2.74. Potential buy/long opportunity. Keep on the watchlist for possible entry." For the pair we want to LONG NG and SHORT Heating Oil. If you want more details on the trade email tradingdesk@unum.co.za
NYMEX:NG1!
by MarkWeetman
Research: Sell The New DawnAn interesting research note this morning from our Unum Trading Desk analyst, Lester Davids: "Since November 2017, South African citizens have become accustomed to hearing the term "New Dawn" - a reference to the expected change in the country's fortunes due to the change political leadership. From the onset of the handover, a new wave of optimism ensued with financial market participants voting with their feet and stomping their way into the local currency. The Rand (USDZAR), which had started to naturally weaken in the run-up to the ANC's elective conference toward the end of last year, saw a huge gain as the elected candidate was perceived to bring a positive change to the ailing South African economy. From November 2017 to early in 2018, the Rand strengthened from a low of R14.58 to a high of R11.50, putting some pressure on South Africa's Rand hedge shares and weighing on the overall index." Unfortunately, the "New Dawn" honeymoon looks over, as negative local economic news, and EM weakness has returned the Rand to previous highs (vs the USD)
Short
by MarkWeetman
1
Flash note: PSG GroupFlash note on PSG from our Unum Trading Desk analyst, Lester Davids. "Around current levels, PSG is showing a technical willingness to break above the resistance level of R235, which is just below the 200-day moving average. The price has started to make higher lows and is trading above the 21 and 50-day moving average, both of which are pointing higher. With the 200dma at resistance, it is possible for the price to re-test the upward trend line before regaining the 200dma." For more information contact the Unum Trading Desk on +27 (0)11 384 292, tradingdesk@unum.co.za or our real-time chat t.me
PLong
by MarkWeetman
Break-out and retest (BAT & LHC)A short technical note from our Unum Trading Desk analyst, Lester Davids. "On the Brait (BAT) chart, following the test and breakout of the downward trend line, the price has given us a small 3-day pullback, with a positive close yesterday. The RSI is starting to move out of oversold territory so there could be a potential buy/long opportunity on the share . A great recent example of a breakout and re-test was Life Healthcare (LHC) on the right hand chart." If you want to chat about these charts, or any local South Africa stocks, contact our Unum Trading Desk on tradingdesk@unum , call +27 (0)11 384 2920 or live chat with us on t.me
JSE:BATLong
by MarkWeetman
Flash note Dis-chem Pharmacies Ltd (DCP)Trade with caution on DCP, warns our Unum Trading Desk analyst Lester Davids! "The upward price momentum is strong however we trade just above the 200dma as well as at the prior support that was in place from November 2017 to May 2018. We also have an open "gap" at 3525c from the "gap" down on 4-May. The share now commands a 42 P/E . I advise caution on any new longs, possible the stock is a pending Short?" If you want to discuss these trading ideas, contact our Unum Trading Desk on +27 (0)11 3842920 or tradingdesk@unum.co.za
JSE:DCPShort
by MarkWeetman
Flash note: USDZARUnum flash note on the USDZAR from our Trading Desk analyst, Lester Davids. Chart 1: USDZAR: We currently trade just below the R14.25 resistance, with the Rand having gained on a weaker USD. The monthly chart shows this to be the top of the bull flag/channel. Chart 2: Another view (again the monthly chart), shows the potential start of a "right shoulder" of a long term inverse H&S formation. support and resistance levels from the bank analysts (Investec) this morning confirm these ranges (R1 14.2430, S1 14.15)
by MarkWeetman
iShares Emerging Markets (EEM) - Great Opportunity To Buy hereMorning all, Our Unum Capital Trading Desk analyst @Lester_Davids published a flash note on EM AMEX:EEM this morning: "Following a stellar two-year run, emerging markets (EM) have been under significant pressure with the selling pressure commencing in January 2018. The reason? The surge in the US Dollar (high interest rates) as well as political fallout has seen a rush for the emerging market exit door. Now, with US interest rates on a short to medium term decline and the US Dollar experiencing some selling pressure, Emerging Market assets could be poised for a turnaround. The weekly chart setup show a potential double bottom around $42.15 - attractive level to accumulate via the ETF. " Our Unum clients will recall my idea published on 29 Jan. Emerging Markets: Is The Party Over? EM has under-performed massively YTD - so this has worked very well if you took my trade. As previously suggested, if we lift our time frames / time horizons we could do even on the % return front. Original Chart - 29 Jan Updated Chart - 23 Aug
AMEX:SPYLong
by MarkWeetman
FoschiniWith the petrol price increasing, tax increased this year results on a lot of financial pressure on the south african consumer leaving consumers with a lower disposable income. In time of lower disposable income it is natural in an economic sense that there would be an increase on credit purchases from consumers. With this being said. I think TFG is best positioned for a long on retailers as they reported 7% increase in credit sales together with a decrease in irrevocable debt. This gives me an indication that TFG does collect most debt and they do it quite fast as they have the highest interests rate on debitors with 19%. This is a risk management strategy they use to collect debt as soon as possible from debitors. The faster they collect debt the stornger the balance sheet and the stronger the share price should be theoretically. Therefore, I remain bullish on the stock. Here is what I plan to do: Buy: 174-176 TP: 190 SL: 169
JSE:TFGLong
by MariusGrobler301