Yen Carry Trade Unwind: Is It Really Over?The unwind of the Yen carry trade has led to a significant breakdown in the USDJPY, shattering the ascending channel that had been in place since early 2023. We're now witnessing a retest of the channel's lower bound, where crucial resistance levels come into play. As asset managers continue to unwind their short Yen positions to mitigate risk, we may see a sustained strengthening of the Yen, potentially driving the USDJPY even lower.
Unwind
USOIL 6-1 Retrace ShortWith summer quickly approaching the initiative in the oil market has changed with more aggressive bids similar to what was seen in December of last year. With inflationary conditions in the market becoming evident and supply chain issues causing major ruptures across many markets I still have very a bullish outlook on Oil. That being said, I also expect for a retrace before a continuation higher next month for Oil. This end of month unwind is not uncommon as contracts are rolled, settled and options approach expiration. My ideal target for this trade would be 64.70 where auctioning really picked up in the past 10 days for oil which offers a 6-1. I placed my stops above highs to prevent any impulse move from causing unwanted drawdowns. Feel free to share your opinions and refer to my other post for longer term projections.