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Bitcoin Update Week 32 - Holding on to the last horn..Hello traders, welcome to another weekly market outlook from the Zentrader. A lot has happened last week and unfortunately the market hasn’t given us the trade we were looking for. We didn’t enter any trade, so we’re wrong about the scenario and setup, but without a consequence. Which is one of the better ways to be wrong. Before we look at the charts, let’s recap what we were looking for last week. We acknowledged the overall bearish trend we were in, but were looking for one more wave upwards before resuming the bearish trend (aiming to reach the weekly kijun and react off it for the downwards move). Our longer term targets for the bears were discussed in our monthly outlook (linked below): just below 5000, and around 1350. Now the question remains: are we still looking for the same scenario, one more up and then down? Or is the market breaking down, and are we back into the bearish movement already? Let’s turn to the charts for answers. Weekly Last week we were looking for a move upwards towards the kijun and a bounce off the kijun for a short entry. Now we have to ask ourselves, was this the kijun bounce? And we not going to up once more? Ichimoku shows us flat momentum on the kijun and tenkan, and on the senkou B (the bottom of the green kumo). So that is not of much help. We’re on a TD 4, which can signal the end of the bounce. We can also see that we’re hanging around a previous area of support. It’s all not very clear, so we’ll have to attempt to answer this question on a lower timeframe. Daily So… there’s a lot going on here that we need to pay attention to. Let’s take it step by step. Price entered the kumo after the rejection at the 0.618 fib failed, and we’re trying to hold the previous resistance area. We\re on an 8 count, and it’s quite inevitable that we’re going to see bullish divergence on the TSI (unless we make lower below 6100 on this push..). Where does this leave us? And how do we trade this? We’re still looking for a wave upwards, and then down. Given the depth of the correction we probably won’t go as high as we previously thought, and we probably won’t even go past the previous high. The first resistance is around 7600, so that would be a safe target for the swing. At the moment we have to wait and see if this support we’re in now holds, tomorrow can be a daily 9, which we’ll look at for reversal tomorrow… If this level does not, we might have to bid our idea of a bullish trade farewell and look for short entries. However, we don’t short support, so we’ll have to see some levels broken before we can consider that. 2HR We can see we’re in the support zone here. It is key that this level holds to keep our scenario in play. What we’re looking for in the coming days on the 2hr chart is some signals of bullishness from ichimoku. But at the moment it is far too early to predict any of that. It looks like the move is nearing exhaustion, but that never means there’s not another push down! We need to be patient here, and for the market to give us more clarity. We expect this to happen in the next few days though.. To recap, we’re at a key level here, and we need to hold this level and reverse in the coming few days. If not we will reassume our long term bearish position and look for short entries which comply to our risk rules. We got safely into the first move up, giving us a good 15% profit, so we’re not in a hurry to enter a trade to ealy, When we have a safe entry, where we can sufficiently define our risk and reward ratio we’ll look to enter. If not we’ll wait for the market to give us another chance, there will always be another opportunity. We’ll update the setup tomorrow, and see if we have any more bullish signs to enter the trade, or if we need to consider ourselves wrong. Time will tell…
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DariusZen
3
Bear Market or Bear Trap? $6900 Weekly UpdateHey Gang, Quick Update! BTC looks like its in free fall, or does it? On the 4 hour things actually look prepped for a bounce from a technical standpoint, but the overall market sentiment is very negative. I'd guesstimate that the majority of people are not expecting ETFs anymore, meaning that most of the selling off is over. This recent dip may very well be a bear trap too, but enter with caution here if you're considering it because on the daily/weekly, things still look rough. I'll be re-entering some of my position in BTC near 6800 with a SL @ 6600. Still expecting further moves downward though in the long term but you gotta hedge your bets. Personal Bias: 24% Bullish / 76% Bearish If you found this helpful and want to follow my day to day TA on BTC -0.64% , other alts, or just want to chat. Come check discord I work for --> discord.gg There you'll find expert TA for multiple anaylists, educational videos, project write ups and so much more! COMING SOON: rollinpremier.com With Love, No_L DISCLAIMER: The information provided is not to be considered as a recommendation to buy certain assets or currencies and is provided solely as an educational and information resource -0.13% to help traders make their own decisions. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. It is important to note that no system or methodology has ever been developed that can guarantee profits or ensure freedom from losses. No representation or implication is being made that using the attached material will guarantee profits or ensures freedom from losses. I shall not be liable to the participant for any damages, claims, expenses or losses of any kind (whether direct or indirect) suffered by the participant arising from or in connection with the information obtained or ideas that I've shared.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by AdamNo_L
1
Market update - Week 31: Now that everyone is bullish… Hello again, welcome to another weekly bitcoin update. We discussed our longer term view in yesterdays monthly outlook (linked below). Now let’s look at the more immediate future, and how we can get positioned in the market. Weekly We talked about the weekly chart yesterday in a greater detail, so we’ll keep it brief here. The link to yesterdays post is at the bottom of this update, be sure to check that out. The only things we’ll say here is: We’re coming up to the weekly kijun, setting us up for a bearish kijun bounce. As we discussed yesterday, this is not only the area of the weekly kijun but a zone of (multiple timeframe) confluence of many resistances. We had 2 huge weekly candles in a row, in a bear market. Many will shout at the top of their voices that this is bullish, and it is the end of the bear market. That makes us even more confident it definitely isn’t. We view it as a a sign of tremendous weakness: fomo traders blindly entered the market after a short squeeze, resulting in the second big positive candle. Fomo traders aren’t smart traders, and their hand is usually weak: They will probably panic sell as fast as they fomo bought. And this means that when the price starts dropping, it will drop fast. We got in the those candles up, and out near the top. We’re now in a strong position, waiting for the market to show us a sign of collapse to get in short. Again we must not jump the gun here: we’re still in a range, and have a possibility of another way up, squeezing all the shorts who weren’t positioned correctly. Let’s view the daily chart for more detail Daily This is where the action is, and there’s a number of things going on. Firstly, we can see chikou and kijun attempting to break out of the kumo within the next few days. Second, in our big weekly box of resistance, we;ve narrowed out a zone where we are likely to see a bearish reaction if price is able to push up one more wave. We’ll be looking for short entries if price makes it there. Our invalidation level will be around the 10.000 range. Third, see all the blue support boxes? this is where we expect to find minor reactions on our way down to 6000, and eventually 5000. Now what does this all mean for our scenario? Are we long now, short later? Do we wait? Do we short now? Price is still ranging, so taking a trade now would be the same as taking the trade last week.. too speculative and prone to liquidation. We’ll have to wait for price to work out this range, between the support and resistance box. 2HR The 2HR chart doesn’t show us much more. Ichimoku is in equilibrium, and momentum is building up ready to be released. But this will probably not happen until the market took out all the stop losses, only then will it go on its way. Don’t be one of those stop losses, be a passenger on the price train. You just have to wait for it to get to our station :) Here;s the link to our Longer term market outlook, check it out! And follow us to receive our updates on the developing scenarios.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DariusZen
3
Bitcoin XBT Stops Update and Next Trade Points from HereBitcoin Bitmex Update Not much has changed overnight. It was still a buy on tests of the 7355 line but only for scalps... If you bought on the second test of this level overnight raise the stop to 7438 for now. The spikes above price suggest it's still not wanted much above 7500 so far. The rest stays the same for now, a repeat of yesterday as nothing has changed yet. On Bitmex feed it's still effectively stuck in the range bounded by three lines of important resistance at 7615 and 7683 and 7741 and one line of support at 7265, which now needs extending to cover the spike low. Whilst inside the range it looks like scalping opportunities at best for now. Buy on dips towards the 7355 nearest support line with stops just under 7350 looks to be the best option for those looking to trade this inside the range from here. For others, an eventual break either side of the range should be worth following more aggressively. Has to break above 7750 on high volume to follow long looking for 8600. And on the downside has to break below 7240 on rising volumes for next good shorting opportunity, looking for a retest if 6819-6792 range where it should bounce again if tested. But until then it looks like we remain limited to scalping opportunities inside the range *Day-Traders: For fastest updates in real-time please check link at top-left of main page.
BITMEX:XBTLong
by sumastardon
4
BTC UPDATEAs expected, we had a little bit of a boost but it was was harshly rejected and price was sent down to its current level. We will need to see some bulls show up to the party or we may be in for a long ride. Pivots are very relevant right night. We need to push through this blue pivot in order to enter bullish territory. I'd really like to see a close above the descending red line today. We printed an ugly shooting star candle stick on the 12 hr chart, would like to see a more neutral/bullish candle appear. I wouldn't recommend any trades right now until we exit one to one of the zones noted. If anything, move into coin or cash and use a SL depending on the direction to re-enter coin or exit in case we go north or south.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by infbp22
BTCUSD Sunday Chart Update and Key Trade-Points TodayBitcoin Sunday Chart Update and Key Trade Points So far this looks like a good Reverse/Inverse Head and Shoulders in classic formation with a perfect retest of the neck-line yesterday at 7600 (even more so because no one seems to have really mentioned it - the low today here is 7600 precisely). It carries with it a minimum implied upside target at 8163 on Bitfinex. But in the near term Bitcoin has made an 07:30gmt break higher from the 7644 line as it did yesterday too -before spending 24 hours moving sideways again. The new normal. Sheesh. Every break higher is getting faded now for hours and hours after the intial impulse. £0 minutes of action followed by 24 hours of continuation. Just like fishing on a slow day :( But this break today is still potentially significant. We now have a technical battle emerging between the power of the RHS on upside and the power of the upper dynamic of a loosely defined rising wedge-like formation on the downside, both in opposition to each-other, one a positive force and the other negative. So we can spend quite some time today in yet another continuation pattern with support at 7700 and extending to the lower parallel of the newly forming pattern from the intra-day high. Both these opposing patterns are powerful. Which pattern will prove stronger ? Well, so long as the dynamic which forms the lows of the right shoulder holds up on retests today the likelihood is that eventually the break will be higher and not lower. If so other than buying the dip to 7700 and below to 7768 and maybe to the 7644 line the only other option is to buy the break above the upper small falling dynamic from the intra-day high when and if it comes later on - need a volume spurt to follow it to know it's good - but the pattern is still overall positive at this point and the uppermost risng dynamic which capped the high today so far, is beginning to lose its power and on the 5th strike it should break too. That will open the way for a RHS to take control and begin to drive price towards the upside target at 8163. Returning to the downside Bitcoin has to break below the risng dynamic underpinning the lows of the right shoulder of the RHS to start flipping longs out back to 7644 and if this then fails to the neck-line itself again at 7600. This level must hold up throughout the day from here. Any failure by more than 15 points will flip Bitcoin back into bear hands, signalling ultimate failure of the RHS and trigger a short from this point with stops 50 points or so higher if struck later.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon