Bond rout study - yield to go even higher - 6/4/205Past 4 bond routs lasted 12 - 15 months, touched the red resistance line and then backed off. If history is the guide, the current one has been going on for 5 months now and may have another 7 - 10 months to go and may touch 3.7. So looks like any bond rally should be sold/short until the target 3.7 is reached.
Update
AUDJPY SHORT UPDATEAs you can see the trade i put few days ago is wrong. price will not continue the trend, it didnt break the structure. price break the trend!
THIS IS WHY WE NEED TO WAIT FOR BREAK OUT OTHERWISE WE ARE GAMBLING AND IS BETTER AT THE CASINO
However. RSI is showing a really good divergence. So lets wait for the break of the structure to make a short!
Now we have more signals for short
1- break of the up trend
2-Divergence in the RSI
3-Corrective structure forming
End of 2014 Bear Market Prediction (update)This is an update of a chart I made 10 days ago (check linked ideas). I've added some inner waves and some corrections.
Yesterday's drop to $276 could have ended the (5) wave of C. You can zoom a bit to see the decomposition between (4) and potential (5). Long-term support, lowest-point after burst ($275), first level of fibonacci retracement are all pointing to this important level. If the ABC corrective triangle is over (correcting the Dec. 2013 burst) we should be going out from the endind diagonal from the upside pretty soon. In EW and TA this pattern/figure is a bullish one.
However, we should note a correct counting is allowed with testing the falling wedge again (and old ATH). The counts would remain correct and stop the 2014 bear market aswell. C would be around January's end, ~ $257.
IMO if you're long-term bitcoin beliver this a nice time to accumulate. If not, waiting a possible drop to $257 or the breakout from big falling wedge could be a better idea. Good luck !
BAC Update - Don't short yet!Last night I had posted a BAC channel that may be testing resistance. However, this chart has more accurate resistance levels and indicates a move higher.
There are 4 possibilities, 3 of which are very close to one another at around 16.50. The one closer to 17 may work (3 touches) but there is no valid parallel support.
The red line was my previous resistance expectation, but this may fail this week. The problem was that I used the July 3 close instead of the high.
My guess is a small trading range near one of these price levels followed by a weak sell off to a support.
No position, wait for signal.
UPDATE: PEIX EXACTLY AS PREDICTED HIT MY TARGETS VERY QUICLYALTHOUGH I HAVE BEEN EXACT IN MY PROJECTIONS WHEN IT COMES TO THE STOCK TESTING ITS 52 WEEK HIGH, I AM STILL BULLISH HOWEVER, I WOULD MOVE YOUR STOP LOSS TO A TIGHT ONE IF YOU BOOKED THE PROFITS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST FEW DAYS I WOULD PLACE THIS AT APX. 17.62 WHICH IS WHERE I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A REVERSAL IN PRICE IN THE EVENT MY INDICATOR FOLLOWS SUIT IF IT BREAKS THOUGH THE KEEP MOVING YOUR TIGHT STOP TO ENSURE A GREAT TRADE DOES NOT BECOME A BAD ONE.
PLEASE REFER TO MY PREVIOUS POST ON PEIX TO SEE MY ENTRY POINT AND WHERE I ALSO REFEREED TO PUBLIC TO ENTER ALTHOUGH I FELT THE TIMELINE WOULD BE LONGER WE ALL KNOW AS PER THE PREVIOUS LINK WHAT GOES UP GOES DOWN SO THE FASTER IT GOES UP THE FASTER IT GOES DOWN.
ONCE AGAIN IF IT CONTINUES THIS BULLISH NATURE IT WILL BREAK ITS 52 WEEK BUT PLEASE USE CAUTION ENTERING TODAY IF I FEEL AN ENTRY POINT TODAY BECOMES A SERIOUS POSSIBILITY GOING INTO THE CLOSE I WILL RE POST HOWEVER WE HAVE RECEIVED 68% PLUS PROFIT AS OF NOW AND ARE EXPECTING TWO POSSIBILITIES:
1: TREND REVERSAL WRITE CALLS TODAY 17.50 EXPIRING TOMORROW TO ENSURE A LARGER PROFIT AND IF STOCK AND ALSO A SAFETY NET
2:ENTER A TIGHT STOP AND NOT BE GREEDY SO MAKE IT YOUR DECISION BASED ON YOUR GUT AND MY INFORMATION PREVIOUSLY GIVEN IN MY PRIOR REPORT.
IF YOU ARE A SWING TRADER FOLLOW YOUR SHORT TERM POSSIBLE REVERSAL OR COVERED CALL WRITING HOWEVER IF YOU ARE IN IT LONG TERM A PULL BACK TO THE 9 EMA WILL NOT HURT YOU I DO FEEL BULLISH LONG TERM HOWEVER NEUTRAL SHORT TERM.
GOOD LUCK ALL AND BILLY THANK YOU AGAIN FOR YOUR CONSISTENT WINNERS!
Bitcoin 2 Weeks Forecast until the Silk Road Auction - Update 4Not a lot of volume the past few days leaves Bitcoin in a CONGESTION phase until June 27 to June 30 just fluctuating without any clear direction. TA cannot be very helpful in such a immature market but a forecast can still be done.
The congestion range is mainly between 582 to 621.
My opinion is:
(1) technically the chances of seeing 550 is unfortunately slimming down BUT we might still be able to drop to 550 around June 26-27 and quickly rebounce upwards.
(2) BUT another scenario (not pictured in the above chart and which is also VERY LIKELY to happen) would be not to see 550 and the market just moves UP PAST 621 to 635 after rumors of the last price paid for the auction are LEAKED and you have to expect for sure that the price will be ABOVE the CURRENT MARKET PRICE. There are a lot of big players bidding on those coins and this is a very bullish sign that newbie traders do not see since they trade with their emotions. Given that China has been bullish more than other regions would point to that scenario to be most likely to happen. Also the fact that the Silk Road news is on the news more and more will bring more new investors in the next few days and weeks which will fuel the next rally.