Upper
Open gapOh boy, tomorrow's open is gonna be a doozie.
Let's examine where we can go.
-that last hour is ugly. Any bids looking for a sale are shook.
-potus answered a question about a possible recession, to which he said maybe, and of course the times have run a headline saying he said this on his own accord; in reality he was brushing off a question that wasnt related to covid
-we have a very weak upper channel that formed on march 5th, which I believe is going to form the top of a descending channel; the base of which we formed trailing blood on feb 28th.
Tomorrow is going to be red.
EURUSD Counter-Rally to Upper Parallel Before next DeclineineEURUSD 30th May
EUR has finally reached the month-long downside target at
1.1558 just in time for the end of the May. It actually
exceeded the target by 45 pips before reversing higher and
creating the first strong green candles of buying intent the
market has seen for months now. But the counter rally is
running out of momentum now whilst DXY holds above 94.
Initial resistance for EUR lies here at the 1.1676 line and
extends to the line above at 1.1731. This range, bounded by
the two lines, is likely to prove insurmountable in the very
near term - it will need DXY itself to break below 94 to break
the upper parallel here - in which case the bears will retreat
further here too and it should then rally 90 or so pips higher
still to 1.1821 on more bear closing before falling away again.
That looks to be best case scenario for EUR from here though.
(At the same time DXY should then fall to test the 93.36-93.12
range and then bounce higher again.)
So long as 94 holds up on DXY the Euro is likely to remain
trapped within the medium term downtrend of April/May and
likely to fall away from the upper parallel once more when
challenged.
But this time around the next sell off from the upper parallel
of the larger impulse wave has a reasonable chance of
creating a double bottom around the 1.1558-1.1540 range
when it does fall away again - so any fresh shorts taken out
around current levels need closing down again here. Any
subsequent fall below 1.1535 will then be needed to trigger
fresh shorts from here back to the 1.1318-1.1287 range.
EURUSD - Touching upper tramlines again. Expect downsideThis pair is moving in a really nice sideways channel.
Price looks as though it has topped out at 1.1191 and looks bearish from here. Have taken a short position with a tight 20 pip SL. I expect to take profits at around the Fib 38% retrace level (1.1121).
3m Chart
I watched this trade closely on the 3m chart because I had a good idea that price would turn at the upper tramline and I wanted to watch and see what happened, and also get a good entry. I actually could have got a 50% better entry than I took, but I wanted to make sure that bears were stepping in before taking a position.