UPS: A Hidden Gem in the Logistics SectorUPS stock has been decimated recently, but this presents a prime opportunity for savvy investors.
If you, like me, believe in the future of e-commerce and global logistics, UPS is a stock you cannot afford to overlook.
As a leader in the logistics industry, UPS is integral to the global supply chain.
The stock is a key component in many ETFs focused on transportation and logistics, alongside giants like FedEx and DHL.
With the growing demand for efficient delivery services, UPS's pivotal role in the supply chain ensures it is well-positioned for substantial long-term growth.
Invest in UPS now to capitalize on the future of global commerce.
Trading at 20% below estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 15% per year
Dividend of 5%. So holding for the long term.
Profit margins down to 6% from 10% :(
UPS
UPS looking DOWNSNice head and Shoulders on the United Parcel Service
#UPS and FEDEX are the new dow transport indicator.
An underlying determinant of how the consumer is faring
Since the US is a consumer economy and Online shopping is the majority of retail
if we see new highs on the Indicies, and the home delivery carriers continue to deteriorate
it would give your non confirmation Top
Similar to Dow theory of new High's in the Industrials , but the transports lagging and indeed falling.
UPS - Navigating the Evolving Delivery LandscapeUPS's recent earnings miss exposes a vulnerability in their logistics model. Consumers are prioritizing cost over speed, requiring a multi-tiered delivery system for sustainable profitability.
Catalyst:
UPS's Q2 2024 earnings report revealed a significant decline due to a shift in consumer preference towards lower-cost, slower shipping options offered by competitors. This highlights the need for UPS to adapt its traditional focus on expedited delivery.
Price Movement:
Upside Potential: Successful implementation of a multi-tiered logistics network catering to both speed and cost-efficiency could lead to a stock price recovery.
Downside Risk: Failure to adapt to the changing consumer landscape could lead to continued decline and potential market share loss.
Indicators:
Monitor news and announcements regarding UPS's logistics network restructuring and investments in cost-effective solutions.
Track consumer spending trends related to delivery options, particularly price sensitivity for non-urgent purchases.
Analyze the performance of competitor stocks like FedEx, especially their response to the evolving market.
Conclusion:
The delivery landscape is undergoing a significant shift. UPS's ability to adapt to consumer preferences for cost-conscious options will be crucial for their long-term success. While the transition presents challenges, the successful implementation of a multi-tiered logistics network could unlock significant value for investors. Careful analysis of UPS's strategic moves and market trends is recommended before making any trading decisions.
UPS Posts Q1 Profit Beat, Revenue Miss Stock up 2.33%United Parcel Service ( NYSE:UPS ) recently published its first-quarter results, indicating that while the shipping company surpassed adjusted profit estimates, it fell short of revenue expectations. The company affirmed its full-year guidance, with a projected revenue range of $92.0 billion to $94.5 billion and an adjusted operating margin of 10.0% to 10.6%.
NYSE:UPS , along with other shipping companies such as FedEx, have had to make adjustments due to the fall in shipping demand and revenue. This decline comes after record highs during the pandemic. In the first quarter, NYSE:UPS reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.43 on adjusted net income of $1.22 billion. This exceeded analyst expectations of $1.31 per share and $1.12 billion.
NYSE:UPS 's revenue of $21.7 billion came in slightly below the analyst's estimates of $21.89 billion. Nevertheless, UPS has reported a higher profit than estimated after reducing costs, with total operating expenses down 1.4% in the first quarter compared to last year.
As demand for package deliveries has decreased, shipping rival FedEx has also seen a decrease in revenue. NYSE:UPS has affirmed its full-year guidance and expects to return to volume and revenue growth.
In the weeks leading up to the earnings report, NYSE:UPS announced that it would replace FedEx as the primary air cargo provider of the U.S. Postal Service. The change is set to happen once the current contract with FedEx expires in September, but UPS has not disclosed how the contract's impact will affect its finances.
NYSE:UPS shares initially jumped as much as 3% in premarket trading on Tuesday after the report was released. However, they reversed course and were trading about 1% lower an hour before the opening bell. NYSE:UPS closed at $145.36 on Monday, up 1.8%, but the stock is still down more than 7% so far this year and 25% lower in the last 12 months.
The decline in average daily volumes in its domestic segment and a 5.8% drop in its international segment is an indication of the subdued demand for small-package delivery. Besides, the company's profit margins have come under pressure due to higher costs associated with a new labor contract with the Teamsters union. The company reported an adjusted operating margin of 8%, the lowest in 2024. NYSE:UPS is absorbing 46% of the wage and benefit costs of the new five-year contract in 2024 and does not expect business conditions to improve until the second half of the year.
In summary, NYSE:UPS 's Q1 profit beat adjusted estimates, while revenue fell short of expectations. The company is making adjustments in response to the fall in shipping demand and revenue. The change in the air cargo provider of the US Postal Service could have an impact on its finances in the future.
UPS United Parcel Service Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the Double Top on UPS:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PUPS United Parcel Service prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 142usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-4-26,
for a premium of approximately $3.45.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
UPS Plummets 8% Amidst Investor Day ConferenceIn a strategic pivot aimed at driving growth and enhancing efficiency, United Parcel Service ( NYSE:UPS ) revealed its comprehensive vision for the future during its investor day conference. The announcement of the "Network of the Future" initiative signals a bold commitment to optimize and automate UPS's core integrated network, positioning the company for sustained success in a rapidly evolving market landscape.
CEO Carol Tome's unequivocal declaration of UPS's strategic direction underscores the company's unwavering determination to adapt and thrive in the face of challenges. With a keen focus on boosting market share and expanding its addressable market, NYSE:UPS is poised to harness the power of innovation to drive incremental growth and deliver value to shareholders.
Tome's assertion that the small package industry is primed for growth in 2024 and beyond reflects a strategic optimism tempered by a pragmatic understanding of market dynamics. By making bold moves to create a growth flywheel in premium markets while simultaneously driving productivity and efficiency gains, UPS aims to position itself as a leader in the global logistics landscape.
The ambitious financial targets outlined by NYSE:UPS serve as a testament to the company's confidence in its ability to execute its strategic vision. With projected consolidated revenues between $108 billion and $114 billion by 2026, UPS anticipates a substantial expansion of its top line, driven by a combination of organic growth initiatives and operational enhancements.
Furthermore, UPS's commitment to delivering superior financial performance is underscored by its guidance of an adjusted operating margin above 13% by 2026. With a laser focus on driving profitability across its key business segments, including the U.S. domestic package and international operations, UPS aims to unlock new levels of operational excellence and value creation.
Central to UPS's strategic roadmap is the commitment to generating robust free cash flow, with projections ranging between $17 billion and $18 billion by 2026. This emphasis on capital efficiency and disciplined capital allocation underscores UPS's commitment to delivering sustainable long-term value to its shareholders.
Despite the market's initial reaction, characterized by a reversal in UPS's stock price following the investor day conference, the underlying narrative remains one of strategic foresight and operational excellence. While short-term fluctuations may obscure the broader trajectory, UPS's steadfast commitment to its strategic objectives positions the company for success in the years ahead.
As NYSE:UPS embarks on this transformative journey, navigating the complexities of a dynamic global marketplace, stakeholders can take solace in the company's resolute commitment to innovation, efficiency, and growth. With a clear vision and a strategic roadmap in place, UPS stands poised to unlock new opportunities, drive shareholder value, and redefine the future of logistics.
UPS Rides High on FedEx's Soaring QuarterNYSE:UPS (United Parcel Service) stock witnessed a surge today, buoyed by the impressive performance of its competitor FedEx in the third quarter. FedEx's robust results, including earnings that beat analyst expectations by nearly 12%, lifted UPS shares in sympathy.
In its recent quarterly report, FedEx reported earnings of $3.86 per share, exceeding estimates and marking a significant increase from the previous year. Despite slightly missing revenue estimates, the company showcased its confidence by announcing a new $5 billion share repurchase program, with plans for $500 million in share repurchases in the coming quarter.
While FedEx's success may have set the stage, NYSE:UPS has been holding its ground. Although NYSE:UPS reported a 7.8% revenue decline in its fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results, its adjusted EPS met consensus estimates. With FedEx's strong showing, investors are hopeful for similar resilience from NYSE:UPS in the quarters to come.
Technical Outlook
NYSE:UPS shares is trading with a moderate Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 58.89 indicating a moderate buying situation. The bulls might continue pushing the share price higher.
In a market where delivery services play an increasingly crucial role, NYSE:UPS 's response to FedEx's success will be closely watched by investors and industry observers alike.
Rail/Transportation Stocks: Macro Fib SchematicsThe biggest rail companies in the world. union Pacific, Berkshire Hathaway, CSX Corp, Northfolk Southern, Canadian Railway Co... GATX is a logistical distributor of railcars, trucks, ect...
FedEx and UPS are postal companies which transport many things.
These Schematics are an eye full but with a careful eye, it is easy to see the patterns of support and resistance. This is a 2 Month chart but they still work with the schematics because all timeframes work in tandem.
Some examples of stock movement include Berkshire Hathaway blasting off from an important Fibonacci Level (RED). Also, there are rejections on GATX and supports on UPS. Canadian Railway is heading into resistance. ECT ECT ECT...
$UPS Announced Plans to Cut 12,000 Jobs
In a strategic move responding to disappointing annual revenue forecasts and the evolving landscape of the logistics industry, United Parcel Service ( NYSE:UPS ) recently announced plans to cut 12,000 jobs and explore options for its Coyote truckload freight brokerage business. The decision comes as UPS grapples with weaker-than-expected demand in the e-commerce sector and a shifting market dynamic.
Earnings Result
The courier giant, often considered a bellwether for the U.S. economy, reported a 6.9% decline in international revenue and a 7.3% dip in domestic revenue for the fourth quarter. These two segments, which constitute a significant portion of UPS's revenue, have seen continuous declines for the past several quarters. The company's struggles reflect broader challenges in the industry, with customers increasingly favoring ground-based delivery over more expensive air-based services.
CEO Carol Tome addressed the company's outlook, noting that the small package market in the U.S. (excluding Amazon) is expected to grow by less than 1%. This, coupled with customers shifting to ground-based services, has put immense pressure on both UPS and its competitor, FedEx.
The fourth-quarter revenue of $24.9 billion fell short of analysts' estimates of $25.43 billion, marking a 6.9% decline from the previous year. Adjusted profit also saw a significant drop, falling to $2.47 per share from $3.62 a year earlier. However, this figure slightly surpassed analysts' estimates of $2.46 per share.
The company's struggle is further exacerbated by labor contract-related costs, expected to be approximately $500 million more than initially estimated in the second half of 2023. The recently negotiated labor deal, effective from August 1, is anticipated to impact the company's profitability in the first half of 2024 due to increased wage costs.
NYSE:UPS is now eyeing a future marked by efficiency improvements and a shift towards higher-profit deliveries, such as medical supplies. The company is determined to recover business lost during contentious union talks last summer and combat the impact of changing consumer behavior, including increased in-store holiday shopping and reduced buying power due to inflation.
Challenges
As NYSE:UPS faces headwinds in the air freight sector, it has reduced flights in response to slack demand, particularly from China. The recent disruptions in shipping routes, such as those caused by Houthi rebel attacks in the Suez Canal and a drought restricting ship movements in the Panama Canal, pose uncertainties about potential shifts in business towards air cargo.
Future Outlook
Looking ahead, NYSE:UPS CEO Carol Tome plans to outline long-term goals in an investor meeting scheduled for March. The company's 2024 revenue forecast of $92 billion to $94.5 billion falls below analysts' expectations of $95.57 billion, reflecting the challenges and uncertainties that lie ahead.
Conclusion
NYSE:UPS finds itself at a critical juncture, navigating a complex web of challenges ranging from shifting market dynamics and weaker demand to labor cost pressures. As the company charts its course for the future, stakeholders will be closely watching the strategic decisions and innovations that will shape NYSE:UPS 's trajectory in the ever-evolving logistics landscape.
$WKHS - Bottomed Chart - 93M Marketcap - 80% CTB, 0 short sharesIt's going to be an interesting start of the year. WKHS has resolved their HVIP issues according to their latest earnings. 93M marketcap for something that will do 10-15M in revenue in 2023. With the HVIP issues resolved, this should pick up in 2024. 80% cost to borrow rate currently and 0 short shares available. An excellent squeeze candidate. I have a position here. Make your own financial decisions.
$UPS Fibonacci Support LevelsTo determine Fibonacci retracement levels:
Identify the Recent Range: You need to identify the most recent significant peak and trough on the stock's chart.
Draw the Levels: Using those two points, you draw horizontal lines to indicate where potential support and resistance levels should be. These are based on key ratios identified by Fibonacci which are: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%.
Analysis: Once these levels are identified, they can be used to identify potential support levels where the stock might find "floor" prices and rebound, or potential resistance levels where the stock might start to face selling pressure.
UPS ready for a 20% moveUnited Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) having previously closed below key support, showing potential weakness.
However, there is significant support below present price levels.
Holding above secondary support, (UPS) is susceptible to recovery over the months ahead.
A weekly settlement above near-term resistance would place (UPS) in a buy signal where gains of 20% would be expected over the next 3 - 5 months.
Inversely, closing below support would elicit a sell signal where losses of 20% would be expected over the same time horizon.
UPS has some, uh, GAPSI was looking into UPS as a possible investment, and wanted to get a price, but after looking at the chart, I'm not sure it's worth it. There seems to be a lot of potential downside, including a pretty sizeable gap around $120.
With almost everyone telling me the market is going to crash, I'm thinking we won't see it crash just yet, which does allow for some return in UPS's price to around $223-$225. The question, does it bounce there or keep going? I'm not sure, which is why I'll wait for confirmation of price action, but it's looking like UPS needs to cool off a bit. The move to $108 would be around a 45%-50% drop, which really isn't out of the question as it brings us back to pre-covid levels, when the shipping craze started.
Thoughts?
UPS Confirms Lower High Bearish Consolidation Below Demand LineThe UPS price action has confirmed a Lower High Bearish Consolidation Structure below the macro Demand Line has basically done so via a secondary Head and Shoulders with PPO Confirmation thereby confirming a Bearish BAMM that will likely take us down to the 88.6% retrace at $90
UPS United Parcel Service Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of UPS United Parcel Service prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 170usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $7.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
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Selling Pressure Ahead as UPS Approaching Key ResistanceUPS, after breaking below the critical support, is currently trading within a descending channel, indicating the potential validity of a long-term downtrend. At present, the price has once again approached the resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. This is expected to generate significant selling pressure, resulting in a downward push in price. Considering the 3-day chart, the drop could be relatively substantial. The final downside target is identified at the 78.6% Fibonacci level, which corresponds to the $120 mark.
However, a breakout above the channel would serve as a strong warning sign for sellers. If the price manages to produce a new higher high thereafter, it is likely that bulls will regain complete control. Nonetheless, at the moment, bears are clearly dominating the market. Therefore, we are currently initiating our short position.