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BTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups from HereBTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups from Here The pattern Bitcoin is currently making is treacherous and too unclear to contemplate a trade at this point. It looks and feels more manipulated right now than ever - as if price is being left to run a little higher to stop hunt weak bears before it gets reeled back in again. It should only get as far as the upper parallel at around 7578 now at best on Bitfinex before it falls away again. To break the downtrend Bitcoin has to find buyers enough to push back above the uppermost parallel and to hold it on the retest. It looks unlikely now, but if we see it happen later on it should be worth following for a potential weekend rally. But in its absence Bitcoin remains stuck in a down-trend and the dearth of support coming from US as it opens means it should fall away again quite soon now from the 7525-7578 range. But even the downside is uncertain at present and it could be that Bitcoin tries to establish a double bottom around the 7318-7263 range when it does come off again. Be careful with the short at this point. Needs volume spike to arrive to push it lower still from there. If it comes and 7250 gives way it's good to follow short again or add to positions looking for 7162 in near term and further out a decline in stages back to 6615-6517 range.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
8
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups TodayBTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups for Today After breaking below the lower parallel of the continuation pattern which had been created over the weekend Bitcoin began to fall away - but the fall when it came overnight was grudging and lacked fluidity or downside momentum. It's therefore hard to trust at the moment and until we get better clarity am forced to close out short at current levels and move to sidelines awaiting a clearer signal for next trade from here. Whilst trapped within the falling parallels Bitcoin is still negative but once again the fall lacks any traction and cannot be trusted enough to stay short of it right now. Any failure to hold 8250 on Coinbase should tip it back into bear hands again and force it lower to the 8148 line. But it can rally back to the 8284 line first so am closing out. A break below here is then needed to trigger the next short of just over 200 points back to 7935. The fall from the weekend highs has been corrective so far. We need to see the upper falling parallel of the pattern broken on the upside - and for it to hold up on the retest once broken above - to switch back to longs again from this point. The market is hard to play right now. It needs the patience of a saint once more to negotiate this minefield. The map says beware for the time being. Better to keep powder dry if possible for now - the market feels like it's being manipulated on thin volumes, trying to trap traders on the wrong side. It just feels a little weird right now. Weird enough to stand back awhile until the picture clarifies more as above.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
2
BTCUSD Saturday Trade Set-UpsBitcoin Weekend Trade Set-Ups It looks like we should get an interesting trade coming up here quite soon. Failure to hold on to 8300 will most likely force it back to the lower parallel of the continuation pattern shown at the bottom of this decline. On the downside we need to see a break below the lower small rising parallel and the support line 8230 to trigger the next short back to 7946 and potentially lower still, to 7817-7800 range. The next important support below here lies at 7584. And on the upside, it's had 4 waves up - it should struggle at the big dynamic again at around 8368 on Coinbase now. Obviously any break above the uppermost falling medium term dynamic would be very bullish- and we will have to follow it long if we see it happen - again it will need a volume burst to achieve this, as usual. It is possible. But the truth is it should come off. it's Bitcoin. If looking to trade this today try to keep an open mind for the next hour or two and follow the break when it eventually comes, watching for a volume spike behind it to confirm.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
1
BTCUSD Bitcoin: Sunday Trade Set-UpsBitcoin Sunday Trade Set-Ups A fairly active overnight session has seen Bitcoin move up to highs around midnight gmt, then down for 6 hours to 06:00gmt and 01:00est and then back up again, forming a fairly sketchy triangle as it moves through time. The last move down (green arrow) was corrective in pattern with 4 small waves down before it hit the lower dynamic of the triangle before rallying again. This move down from the most recent peak at the 8486 line is 2 tiny waves down so far. Interest is so low now that it's basically flat-lining. There is no trade until we see a break unless playing inside the triangle which is getting trickier and trickier as the minutes tick away. But we are getting closer to a resolution now. It's a buy again on on a break above 8510 for a rally to 8630 - 8681 range. It then has to break above 8690 to trigger a second long up to 8835-8881 range. On the downside it has to break the lower dynamic of the triangle to trigger a short back to the 8219-8200 range. At all costs 8200 must hold up today on any retest - failure to do so will flip Bitcoin back into bear territory again back to 8022 initially and then to the 7817-7738 range. We may be stuck with 100 or so point trades if volumes stay low today so don't push things unless we see a volume kick behind us to keep positions open for a little longer.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
4
ETHUSD: Next Trade Points from Here ETHEREUM/DOLLAR: ETHUSD Next Trade Points from Here Three waves down and a bear flag/pennant sitting above a potential bull flag at the bottom of the run. The low was off the longer term dynamic support line too. Eth is trying to turn here but is depending on Bitcoin to help it break free of the downtrend from here. As things stand it's a speculative buy on dips back to 516 with a stop below 510 and becomes a stronger buy for swing traders only once 562 has been re- taken and held by the bulls in this argument. It should then attract more buyers and rally to 630-635. A good near term trade if we see it materialise, and probably needing Bitcoin to break above 8600 and hold for it to happen. Returning to the downside from here, ETH must continue to hold at 516 on dips - any failure to do so by more than 5 points will tip it back into bear hands again and force it lower to 481 at least, and more likely to revisit lows at 452-450 again where it will stand a good chance of double bottoming before the next rally attempt resumes.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
1
FTSE 100: UK100 Key levels and Trade Set-ups todayFTSE 100 UK 100GBP Key Levels and Trade set-ups today This chart shows FTSE's great 9 year rally from start point at the lows of 2009 to the end point on 11.01.18. This cycle forms part a longer 9 year year cycle that was described and shown in last FTSE comment. The lines of support and resistance are clear and should be helpful in coming trades... FTSE has bounced excatly where it should have (last comment) and rallied to exactly where it should have within 3 points or so. Day traders and bottom fishers have closed out where you'd expect looking at the lines and now left FTSE vulnerable to further selling pressure...looks quite likely to restest the 7085 line here and if this cannot hold it will fall away further still to 6904 and just under to 6870 - but it should try to put up a fight at 7085 if tested later - it's most likely the key level today, being positive above here and negative below. On upside it has to break above 7210 and hold to trigger a long up to 7294. Markets are due to remain voolatile - A break below/above any blue line should lead to a test of the next one. But run stops around 30 points higher/lower than the trigger levels and trail up/down. Still expect a bottom to be reached between 3rd and 10th March as per last comment but it can whipsaw in between and should present some decent trades (with stops) as a result.
OANDA:UK100GBP
by sumastardon
FTSE 100 Index: UKX - Cycle High - Short Set-Ups with triggersFTSE 100 Index: UKX Long Term Time Cycles in FTSE Index After rising 10% at the start of the 2018 FTSE has fallen all the way back its start point for the year. Up 10% and back down 10% in 6 short weeks. The action looks unlikely to stop now. In fact it could be just beginning. Probably the greatest trader who ever lived, WD 0.61% Gann , told us to measure time cycles from high tolow and low to high as well as high to high and low to low and look for potential changes in trend as these hiddden cyclesrepeat themselves down through time. Previous cycle highs identified the exact date of the high in 2007 as well as thesubsequent high reached in April 2015 just at the point thatmarkets began a 10 month 20+% correction (for more detailsplease PM) . This cycle marks the period from 10.03.09 majorcrash low through to the next major cycle low on 06.03.09. From major cycle low to low is 9 years ...which now brings us, after a 9 year long bull run, to the coming 23 to 27 days,culminating in the anniversary dates between 3rd march and 10th March 2018... FTSE is already teetering on the brink of critical support at 7092. It has to cling on here on Monday for any failure will tip this index into bearish territory and trigger a short back to 6868 at least - and then if this level in turn gives way back to 6680-6637. Beneath here the next major support potential lies at the lower parallel and below here at 5777. So if 7090 gives way on Monday by more than 10 points look to short this index with stops above 7099, targeting 6870 initially, then the 6680-6637 range if 6860 fails to hold during Monday. It's quite probable that should 7090 fail come Monday, this Index will fall away in stages to test the lower parallel at 6004 on around 5th March - and only then bounce away to the upside again.This will present some wonderful shorting opportunities along the descent. However, in the very near term it's likely that contrarian traders will look to go long here, simply because the stop is so close (20 points away maximum now) but ready to reverse short as above if 7090gives way by more than 10 points. Time, as always, tells.
TVC:UKX
by sumastardon
GBPUSD Two Short set-ups for GBPGBPUSD Sterling pinged off the next blue line at 1.4317 and leaving pins on the daily chart - like a crypto in super-slow-mo - this is moving at one frame per second compared to crypto-world rate of speed at 240 frames per second - same fractal/ratio. Although GBP is sitting back on the nearest support it doesn't look likely to create much of a rally, just a bit of bear closing. Eventually 1.3832 should give way and it will fall to 1.3633, a 200 pip short when triggered. It may fall further still, to 1.3480. Two potential short trades here, trades, one for 200 pips and second for 150
Short
by sumastardon
ETHUSD: Next Potential Trade Set-UpsETHUSD Potential Trade Set-Ups Pretty dull still here. It's not giving up without a fight but not a range we need to be involved in right now. Maybe if it breaks the upper dynamic holding back all rallies so far, but it looks like running into overhead supply at 477 so if you follow this break, should we see it, look to close out here and only enter long again on a break above 484 looking to get long on the next pull-back, ideally to 477 and no lower, using any winnings from the earlier long trade out of the upper dynamic as stops for the next long trade.
BITTREX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
BCHUSD Underlying very strong consolidating above old structure BCHUSD BCH Dollar Risk and Reward Approaches Consolidating gains above old structure - really strong looking and likely to turn up again soon. Ideally it will come back to 1516 and maybe 1461 but looks so far like 1516 will be the lowest it will go. Stick an order in with a stop below 1440. Or stick one in at 1446 - less chance of getting struck but also lower risk with a stop below 1440. And it may even turn from here around 1548 as there is a little support here too...up to you...if you can handle the pain of potential drop to lower levels and are prepared to leave the stop below 1440 it's coming so close to grabbing some, a small position. It can also travel all the way to the lower parallel by moving sideways to mildly down (ideal situation) but we may not see that. Either way this coming very close to buying. Different options depending whether you are an old bull prepared to wait or a younger bull who will sometimes be spot on and sometimes will jump the gun a little. Whatever, it's close to the lows now with 150 max downside and 450 upside, probably more longer term.
B
by sumastardon
1
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Some potentially big trades over ThanksgivingBitcoin: BTCUSD Over Thanksgiving Entry Points for some potentially big trades ahead: neutral in near term ahead of the action Hoping you'll have got out of longs when that pin bar mentioned in last update coudn't be beaten. It was likely a serious player in a low volume market who knew what he was doing at an inflection point with good timing - on a holiday, but still hasn't got much traction on the downside, for all that. Today was treacherous for day traders (we were lucky to break even after such a messy day, if you made a few points after spreads you've done well in the circumstances.) Did try to warn that profits need taking quickly both short and long, but it was an impossible day for all but the slickest and even they will have found that they've given half or more of any winnings to the likes of Etoro. Please stay away from these people. They rely on the unwary and the inexperienced. You work for them. Today almost all day traders did the same. But sometimes the pattern is clear enough to give us warning, and the chart is doing that now. This is helpful to the future. Today's price action finally looks to be evolving into a large pennant. This should be helpful in the next day or two. It's telling us that the range is narrowing, so if day-trading we need to pick our spots with utmost care and precision or we're working for the broker again. If this was a regular 'stock' the spreads would be so tight we could trade the crap out of it. But this is Bitcoin. So we have to stand back and watch the pattern unfold from here. We know it's going to do one of two things: break up or break down, eventually, but is quite likely to have one more test of the lower line followed by a bounce first. Buy Points/Signals 1. On a test of the lower dynamic support (lowest rising parallel) If we see this price action, it's worth buying with stops 30 points under the line when tested. 2. If at any point over the next two days Bitcoin breaks above the upper line of the pennant it is a major buy with stops 50 points under the line when broken - swing traders can join that break too if we see it, increasing longs, because the upside measurement implied by the break is 8834, about 552 points. That would be cool at Thanksgiving. Maybe. It's Bitcoin. Sell Points/Signals 1. If at any point over the next two days Bitcoin breaks below the the lowest rising parallel (that forms the lower line of the pennant) Bitcoin would turn near term negative and would like fall back to 8000 at first, rally some and then fall away to 7800-7700 range again - a tradeable drop of 350 points - before it rallies again. One way or another we should get a couple of good trades if we're awake for them. Happy Holidays America - as divided as you are, you have so much to be thankful for.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
7
Silver: XAGUSD Look to buy dips,, ready for Dollar break-downSilver: XAGUSD Look to Buy Dips It's just about bearish enough to go long here. But no one seems very interested. It's likely to need the dollar to break below it's lower parallel (see DXY comment for back-up to this trade) before interest picks up here. One thing it has in its favour is those pin bars forming off the dynamic support shown on the chart. It's clear we cannot turn negative on silver unless that line breaks. Don't think it will though, expecting DXY weakness to save silver and propel it higher from here. It's a buy on dips back to the dynamic support line and it's a second buy on a break above 17.05 on dips for a rally to 17.25 minimum and more likely to 17.42. It will then need to break above 17.46 and hold on the next retest to trigger next long from here to 18.2. Stops for longs need to be 15 pips under the dynamic support line to avoid whipsaw. Silver, like gold, is a buy dips market for now - turning aggressively bullish of both when DXY breaks its lower parallel.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by sumastardon
Brent Crude trade Set-ups for week ahead Clean ChartBrent Crude OIL UKOIL Trade Set-Ups for this Week Position: Flat - Just didn't trust this short after it bounced at 61.70 first target and then started to build a near term low at 61.33 so closed out the short for just over 100 pips after spreads, as per updates to last comment. Disappointed at the time to close out a trade that had stopped behaving according to expectations. Not so disappointed now though. Brent is now testing the original break-down level at 62.88 after a high one pip higher on Friday. The zone between 62.88 and 63.10 is a treacherous range, full of uncertainty and potential whipsaw - a difficult spot to trade...it should fall away from here, but that behaviour at the highs doesn't look bearish except in very near term: a tiny flag is forming and Brent can be shorted here with a stop above the upper parallel, all the way back down to the lower parallel where the position should be reversed on the first touch, flipping back long again here, with stop 30 pips below the line. The ideal entry back long would be at 62.30 with stops 30 pips under. Continuation patterns like the last one - and potentially this one too - usually only have two touches on the lower parallel before moving higher, the second touch coming quite late in the pattern, and ideally, for bulls looking for clues, leaving a few pin bars off the lows (see last continuation pattern for comparison). So it's a buy on the next touch of that lower small parallel (stop 30 pips under) for a move back to 62.88-63.10 where look to close out if this trade works out. Then look to see if Brent can start to build a base at 62.88 as we move through Monday into Tuesday... We need to watch out this week coming for any such price action and follow with longs again if we see it develop, looking for another move up to 64.16-64.25 range initially and thereafter back to the upper parallel once 64.30 has been broken on the upside. Good idea to split this into two trades. On the downside, first support for Brent is that small lower parallel creating the near term flag - at around 62.26 if hit early on Monday morning in far East and as low as 62.04 if it comes later in the day - but there should be only one direct hit, as with the last pattern and ideally it will leave pin bars on the 1 hour chart. All bullish indicators that can be used to prepare new longs. Barring a brief shake out from currrent levels, as above, Brent will have to move below 62 to flip back into serious bear territory from here, triggering aggressive shorts down to 61.70 at least, and potentially to 61.33. But whilst that little flag holds, upside is more likely this week coming.
FX:UKOILLong
by sumastardon
Brent Crude Oil: UKOIL Trade Set-ups for this weekBrent Crude OIL UKOIL Trade Set-Ups for this Week Position: Flat - Just didn't trust this short after it bounced at 61.70 first target and then started to build a near term low at 61.33 so closed out the short for just over 100 pips after spreads, as per updates to last comment. Disappointed at the time to close out a trade that had stopped behaving according to expectations. Not so disappointed now though. Brent is now testing the original break-down level at 62.88 after a high one pip higher on Friday. The zone between 62.88 and 63.10 is a treacherous range, full of uncertainty and potential whipsaw - a difficult spot to trade...it should fall away from here, but that behaviour at the highs doesn't look bearish except in very near term: a tiny flag is forming and Brent can be shorted here with a stop above the upper parallel, all the way back down to the lower parallel where the position should be reversed on the first touch, flipping back long again here, with stop 30 pips below the line. The ideal entry back long would be at 62.30 with stops 30 pips under. Continuation patterns like the last one - and potentially this one too - usually only have two touches on the lower parallel before moving higher, the second touch coming quite late in the pattern, and ideally, for bulls looking for clues, leaving a few pin bars off the lows (see last continuation pattern for comparison). So it's a buy on the next touch of that lower small parallel (stop 30 pips under) for a move back to 62.88-63.10 where look to close out if this trade works out. Then look to see if Brent can start to build a base at 62.88 as we move through Monday into Tuesday... We need to watch out this week coming for any such price action and follow with longs again if we see it develop, looking for another move up to 64.16-64.25 range initially and thereafter back to the upper parallel once 64.30 has been broken on the upside. Good idea to split this into two trades. On the downside, first support for Brent is that small lower parallel creating the near term flag - at around 62.26 if hit early on Monday morning in far East and as low as 62.04 if it comes later in the day - but there should be only one direct hit, as with the last pattern and ideally it will leave pin bars on the 1 hour chart. All bullish indicators that can be used to prepare new longs. Barring a brief shake out from currrent levels, as above, Brent will have to move below 62 to flip back into serious bear territory from here, triggering aggressive shorts down to 61.70 at least, and potentially to 61.33. But whilst that little flag holds, upside is more likely this week coming.
FX:UKOILLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Update Short set-ups from higher up Bitcoin:BTCUSD It's made a break above the small parallel and run into the first line of profit takers and sellers and so far holding up above that frustrating old dynamic. If you've gone long on the break above the parallel please raise the stop to right under the old dynamic - say just under 6575 - for maybe break even if this gets slapped back hard again. So long as the dynamic holds it at 6590 now it should push higher to 6700-6710 where look to take profits. Use these, if realised, as stops for the next trade. See the next dynamic waiting above? That's the short term upside target. The next hurdlle for bulls will be beating that line, turning it into support after a potentially lengthy battle and then from there Bitcoin should move up to 6940 at which point it becomes a sell again. The longer Bitcoin labours like this, even though it should grind upwards to touch 6700, the more it looks doomed, ultimately, to another big sell off. We have to catch it, but it really has to happen when we're awake, because it's so volatile. It's more a question of where the ideal spot will be to short it from...well it could turn out to be 6700, which is why we need to close out longs there on first strike (or set limit order). And if it's not from 6700, and this can be fought and won by the bulls, turning the near term dynamic (new on chart) into support after an inevitable battle, only then would the coast be clear for a tradeable long up to 6940 with stop under the new dynamic line by 50 points or so. And then its a short again at 6940-6950 with a stop 50 points above . This is complex still, not trending, and full of deceit and whip. It can only be free of it for a fleeting few minutes if it can bust through that line above it...why wait and wonder? close out. Go long again only if the new dynamic becomes real support on a retest from above, once broken through on upside. So we're looking for one more failure, from either 6700 or at best from 6940. The new dynamic will decide that - and our next move, as above. Be careful of getting carried away on the long side now. It's getting time for another retest of 5747 at least, if not of 5653. And potentially lower still to 5382.There's more downside than upside. Look for a potential top at 6700 and if that gets broken through, at 6940. If you short here use a stop 50 points above for 100 total risk. If the first position gets taken be ready to again at 6940.It should come back 250 points quickly. Take them if seen. That older medium term dynamic has to hold here at 6600 now for long to stay good..stops on longs right under by 25 -35 points for break-even if it fails now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Approaching key resistance - next trade set-up Bitcoin is now approoaching important resistance again at the break level/original shorting point from yesterday, at 6445- 6510, with the additional problem of the old dynamic support line that propped up the rallies from the summer lows hanging above it 6515. So it's a near term short for day traders from 6510 with a stop 50 points above but only back to 6300, maybe 6165. We need to look for next long potential for all traders if 6550 is breached on the upside, looking to get long on the first retest of the old dynamic (which we can see waiting just above current price on the chart) so looking to get long if Bitcoin penetrates the dynamic and then comes back down to test it from above and holds, looking for an upside target at 6940 before closing out and going short again. Yesterday into this Morning UK time Bitcoin hit the downside target centred around 5645 for a closed out 800 point gain (yesterday' 3 early trades yielded 200 points on the sell from 6300 to 6050, another 200 to 450 points on the buy from 6050 and then 800 points on the short from 6445 down to the first target cetred at 5645 - so a total return of 1200 to 1450 points yesterday) - before it all went wrong. We were looking to short Bitcoin again as it came up to test the upper parallel (with a stop 50 points above the parallel when touched) which was triggered. But Bitcoin never stopped at the parallel, it's power to contain the wave now spent, and telling us that downward pressure is waning, at least in the near term. So 50 points was lost here. We needed that plan B: watch for breaking of the parallel, then on next pull-back, the parallel must turn from resistance into support, holding up the first decline after breaking above it, showing the trend-change is occurring with this confirming signal, and giving day traders only a chance to go long on the retest (with stops 50 points under the parallel on first touch/first retest from above), looking for a rally back up to 6445 where any longs need closing out.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD New trade set-ups with clean chartBITCOIN: BTCUSD Update on Positions Not a bad day, so far but need to keep an eye on this short still...day-traders have made 250 points from the short from 6300 early in UK morning, then another 200 to 450 points from the long at 6050 just an hour later, depending on where you took profits and now we're short once more from the highs of the day at 6450 with a tight stop above 6515 which was never hit - and is now about 300 points in profit, so 750 - 1000 points profit today in a market that is down 200. This is what a chart that is so technically perfect can produce in the way of fast profits. If you can stay alert and act quickly this space is made for traders - there has never been anything better so far, in the history of speculation. It may not last forever (not Bitcoin, which is just beginning) but the perfection of the chart - but whilst it does we have to trade it. Also longer- term readers will know that catching this monster has been the long term aim of this quest since the chase began - we really want it tagged, bagged and thrown in the freezer, the ultimate trophy catch for any serious speculator (or investor if you fell better with that). So maybe we'll get a chance for that later...maybe. But like Ahab on the quest to catch Moby Dick, you gotta stay in the boat to have that chance. Time will tell, as always. Right now we're still short...think we can move the stop down to protect some profits...the central parallel is still bossing this impulse wave as we can clearly see from the chart - whilst it stays in control of the move down we can stay short, hoping for another massive bear raid to come out of China which ideally will drive price down hard to at least make a double bottom at 5637 and potentially to then fall further still to 5113-4973 range where it will become a buy again if we see it hit. LONG Story Short Yeah, right. Difficult to try cover all scenarios: Stay short, using the central parallel as exit (break above here, followed by successful retest from above: newbies please beware: ideally you should just follow for a while and check back over older Bitcoin posts on Sumastardon pages on Tradingview.com to get a better understanding of trading break-outs etc). If the call goes to plan and the central parallel continues to control this move, repelling every encounter the short stays on down to 5747-5637 first target. Then we close out. It will probably try to make a double bottom in this range (which could well extend right down to the low in China last night again, at 5561 at the extreme). Still don't think that this range will likely be the final bottom, but it should create some kind of stall at least and really should trigger a bounce if touched (doesn't have to though, those Chinese can get pretty scared at times) so cannot recommend a quick counter rally long here because the stop is too vague right now - for the first time since Bitcoin began to unravel it didn't bounce exactly off a given fixed support line (blue lines) but exceeded it by fully 80 points - so am less sure about exact level to expect a bounce, making a sensible stop impossible to figure right now...but if Bitcoin does come all the way down to the exact low at 5561 within 10 points either side it might be worth day traders getting long with a stop 50 points lower for small loss if wrong. But we need to be ready to turn entire position round on any fall below 5510, shorting down to 5113-4973 range (with stop placed at 5610 if this trade is triggered) and ready to buy back and go long in this important range with a stop 100 points below 4973 - if this range is tested later it's the ideal place to consider a longer term 'investment' in Bitcoin (ie Slinging it in the freezer) as it looks the perfect range to get long again. But if wrong we need a plan B, worked out in advance: to go wrong, firstly the central parallel needs breaking to tell us the pressure is finally lifted, then it needs to use the
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
2
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Update on Shorts, next trade set-upsBITCOIN: BTCUSD Update on Positions Not a bad day, so far but need to keep an eye on this short still...day-traders have made 250 points from the short from 6300 early in UK morning, then another 200 to 450 points from the long at 6050 just an hour later, depending on where you took profits and now we're short once more from the highs of the day at 6450 with a tight stop above 6515 which was never hit - and is now about 300 points in profit, so 750 - 1000 points profit today in a market that is down 200. This is what a chart that is so technically perfect can produce in the way of fast profits. If you can stay alert and act quickly this space is made for traders - there has never been anything better so far, in the history of speculation. It may not last forever (not Bitcoin, which is just beginning) but the perfection of the chart - but whilst it does we have to trade it. Also longer- term readers will know that catching this monster has been the long term aim of this quest since the chase began - we really want it tagged, bagged and thrown in the freezer, the ultimate trophy catch for any serious speculator (or investor if you fell better with that). So maybe we'll get a chance for that later...maybe. But like Ahab on the quest to catch Moby Dick, you gotta stay in the boat to have that chance. Time will tell, as always. Right now we're still short...think we can move the stop down to protect some profits...the central parallel is still bossing this impulse wave as we can clearly see from the chart - whilst it stays in control of the move down we can stay short, hoping for another massive bear raid to come out of China which ideally will drive price down hard to at least make a double bottom at 5637 and potentially to then fall further still to 5113-4973 range where it will become a buy again if we see it hit. LONG Story Short Yeah, right. Difficult to try cover all scenarios: Stay short, using the central parallel as exit (break above here, followed by successful retest from above: newbies please beware: ideally you should just follow for a while and check back over older Bitcoin posts on Sumastardon pages on Tradingview.com to get a better understanding of trading break-outs etc). If the call goes to plan and the central parallel continues to control this move, repelling every encounter the short stays on down to 5747-5637 first target. Then we close out. It will probably try to make a double bottom in this range (which could well extend right down to the low in China last night again, at 5561 at the extreme). Still don't think that this range will likely be the final bottom, but it should create some kind of stall at least and really should trigger a bounce if touched (doesn't have to though, those Chinese can get pretty scared at times) so cannot recommend a quick counter rally long here because the stop is too vague right now - for the first time since Bitcoin began to unravel it didn't bounce exactly off a given fixed support line (blue lines) but exceeded it by fully 80 points - so am less sure about exact level to expect a bounce, making a sensible stop impossible to figure right now...but if Bitcoin does come all the way down to the exact low at 5561 within 10 points either side it might be worth day traders getting long with a stop 50 points lower for small loss if wrong. But we need to be ready to turn entire position round on any fall below 5510, shorting down to 5113-4973 range (with stop placed at 5610 if this trade is triggered) and ready to buy back and go long in this important range with a stop 100 points below 4973 - if this range is tested later it's the ideal place to consider a longer term 'investment' in Bitcoin (ie Slinging it in the freezer) as it looks the perfect range to get long again. But if wrong we need a plan B, worked out in advance: to go wrong, firstly the central parallel needs breaking to tell us the pressure is finally lifted, then it needs to use the
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
1
BICOIN:BTCUSD Next swing trade set-upsBitcoin BTCUSD Update Too Whippy Got stopped out around even at 7060 this time. Still unconvinced by the rally attempt and looking at that pattern it should fall much further still. Yet, we've seen how tricky it is selling now, with two pin bars on the 2 hour chart, so although bearish this area here between 7137 resistance and support at 6935 is too full of whipsaw so am staying on sidelines having blown 40 pips on bad trades here today. Prefer to wait for one of two signals for next swing trade and leave this range we're in now to day traders to fight over until one side wins the near term: Any break below 6910 will trigger next short, as well as completing the head and shoulders formation above it - with a minimum downside target at 6312, bouncing off the lower parallel as it descends. It could actually spike as low as 6165 at the nadir but should then bounce again powerfully from here, if not from 6312. This scenario looks more likely - but will not necessarily prevail, so still need a plan B in case the upper parallel is broken on the upside at any point (with a successful retest as described in earlier posts) - Bitcoin will have to move above 7135 and then hold up here on the next minor pull-back which will force it above the parallel and away from the clutches of this downwave. Don't think this will happen, but it's Bitcoin. Anything could happen!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
BIITCOIN: BTCUSD testing upper parallel and still vulnerableBitcoin: BTCUSD Got to sleep sometime unfortunately. Sure enough Bitcoin made its low at 6928 after making an initial low off the lower large parallel and bouncing it then came back to make a double bottom low at 6928 before doing what it was meant to...bouncing up to test the upper contolling parallel. Annoyingly, after trying to avoid getting stopped out of a good trade, exactly that happened, the first time for a while that Bitcoin has created a false trigger on that first break above 7135. Shit does happen, even with Bitcoin, sometimes. Anyway the levels given have been spot on pretty much all through this run up and back down (to the point on downside) so please don't be too pissed...we have to accept the occasional false break: no chart gives out perfect signals every time though Bitcoin comes close most of the time. Accept. Move on to next trade: we're pretty much at the next stage forecast in last comment, now: testing the upper parallel. Day traders will have bought off the predicted low at 6928 with stops below but will be taking profits here, forcing Bitcoin sideways towards the upper parallel where it should fall away from again when it gets touched (short with stop above for day traders' next play). Bitcoin will struggle here and it will become vulnerable to another sell off once it's touched the parallel at 7232. It could develop into another large down-wave from here, but doesn't exactly have to...still prefer to be short from the parallel with stop above when it gets touched soon now.This is still a space for day traders right now. For that to change from here that upper parallel needs taking out on upside, then on a retest it has to hold up as Bitcoin comes back down on next minor pull back (might not see it if a large green candle starts to form so this entry will need watching over if and when it arrives)...but if and when that upper parallel gets broken on the upside will be the time to think about going long again or increasing positions (ideal will be a break aove the upper parallel followed by retest which takes Bitcoin back down a little lower as it tracks the parallel downwards for a while before rallying powerfully). Until we see that happen this is still day-trading territory.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon