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Upstart Holdings Inc. Announce Convertible Senior Notes OfferingUpstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) recently made headlines with the announcement of a $300 million private offering of Convertible Senior Notes due 2029, with an additional $45 million option granted to initial purchasers. This comes at a pivotal time as Upstart (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) aims to use a portion of the proceeds for general corporate purposes and repurchase part of its outstanding 0.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026. The notes, senior and unsecured, bear interest and are convertible into cash, shares of Upstart's common stock, or a combination thereof, at Upstart's discretion. The company also announced the intention to use the net proceeds to enter into capped call transactions, offsetting potential dilution in stock value. As this activity ramps up, analysts are closely watching the movement of NASDAQ:UPST , particularly its recent price action and trading indicators. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, NASDAQ:UPST stock has been facing some headwinds. The stock is currently down 4.65% in Monday's session, a notable dip following the news. However, despite this downturn, there are some encouraging signs on the horizon. 1. RSI at 57: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows the stock is not yet oversold, hovering around 57. This indicates that, despite the price dip, there is still potential for upward momentum, especially if the stock enters oversold territory (below 30 on the RSI). 2. Moving Averages: NASDAQ:UPST remains above its key moving averages, offering a glimpse of support levels that could serve as a cushion against further drops. These technical levels suggest that the stock has not yet hit a bottom, but there may be opportunities for bullish investors looking to re-enter at a favorable price point. 3. Volume: Trading volume is likely to increase as the market reacts to the offering news and convertible note transactions. Historically, NASDAQ:UPST has seen higher volatility around such announcements, which could lead to short-term price swings before settling into a more stable trading range. Further Explaining The convertible senior notes offering shows Upstart’s focus on long-term strategic funding. The company plans to use part of the proceeds for general corporate purposes and to pay for capped call transactions, which are designed to reduce potential dilution in common stock upon note conversion. Upstart's leadership in AI-driven lending and its continuous efforts to innovate in financial services support its potential for long-term growth. However, in the near term, the market will be watching closely how the convertible note offering plays out and whether Upstart (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) can maintain its momentum amidst potential stock dilution concerns. The company has proven itself capable of raising capital in challenging environments, and this offering could set the stage for future innovation and growth. Investor Consideration For investors, the convertible note offering provides an intriguing angle. Those looking for high-risk, high-reward plays might find value in NASDAQ:UPST , as the stock is trading above key support levels. However, the stock's volatility and recent dip serve as a cautionary signal. It's also worth noting that while the RSI remains hopeful, investors should watch closely for any further breakdowns in price, which could signal more bearish momentum. As Upstart (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) continues to innovate with AI-powered lending and shifts in its debt structure, the stock will likely experience fluctuations. A long-term bullish outlook might remain intact if the company successfully manages this capital raise and the accompanying capped call transactions. In conclusion, Upstart (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) offers an intriguing mix of short-term uncertainty and long-term potential, particularly with its convertible note offering and strategic maneuvers in the financial sector. Investors should weigh these factors carefully while considering their positions in the stock.
NASDAQ:UPST
by DEXWireNews
Upstart Holdings Surge Over 45% After Q2 Earnings Beat EstimatesUpstart Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) has stunned investors and analysts alike with its recent financial performance, propelling its stock price to soar over 45% following the release of its second-quarter earnings report. This dramatic rise highlights a renewed confidence in the AI-driven lending platform, as the company showcases resilience and potential in a challenging economic landscape. Q2 Earnings: A Remarkable Turnaround Upstart (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) reported a Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.17, surpassing expectations by $0.22, and revenue of $128 million, exceeding forecasts by $3.47 million. Despite a year-over-year revenue decline of 5.7%, these figures represent a significant improvement over analyst predictions. The company achieved a transaction volume of 143,900 loans, boasting a robust conversion rate of 15%, up from the previous year. However, the financial report wasn't all positive. Upstart's net income loss widened to $54.5 million from $28.2 million in the same quarter the previous year. Despite these challenges, the company's contribution profit stood at $76.1 million, with a contribution margin of 58%, painting a mixed yet promising picture of its operational health. Analyst Upgrades and Market Reaction The earnings beat has led to a substantial shift in analyst perceptions. Citi upgraded Upstart from ‘Sell/High Risk’ to ‘Neutral/High Risk,’ raising their price target from $15 to $33. Piper Sandler maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating but increased their price target to $31 from $28. These upgrades reflect an improved outlook based on enhanced conversion ratios and a reduced impact of macroeconomic variables on credit losses. Investors responded enthusiastically, with Upstart shares (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) surging over 25% at market opening and continuing to climb, currently trading up over 45%. This rapid increase demonstrates the market's renewed optimism towards Upstart's future prospects. AI Advancements and Strategic Outlook CEO Dave Girouard attributed the strong performance to significant advancements in Upstart’s AI model and operational efficiencies. The company's AI-driven lending platform continues to attract and retain lending partners, a crucial component of its business model that leverages technology to streamline the personal loan process. Upstart (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) has provided an optimistic financial outlook for Q3, projecting revenues of around $150 million, against a consensus of $135.33 million. This projection is supported by anticipated revenue from fees and an expected positive EBITDA in the fourth quarter, signaling confidence in sustained revenue growth and potential profitability. Market and Economic Context The positive performance comes amidst a backdrop of mixed economic indicators and a challenging macroeconomic environment. The Upstart Macro Index, which estimates macroeconomic impacts on credit losses, alongside analyst commentary, suggests cautious optimism but highlights the need for sustained positive trends before a more bullish outlook can be confidently established. Valuation and Long-Term Prospects Despite the promising outlook, some analysts have expressed valuation concerns, particularly highlighting the company’s high EBITDA multiple and substantial debt levels. Upstart’s focus on integrating AI for more precise risk assessments and better loan terms showcases its pioneering role in transforming the lending industry. However, the ongoing need to manage debt and navigate a fluctuating economic landscape poses significant challenges that could impact its long-term growth trajectory and market position. Technical Analysis and Future Trajectory From a technical perspective, Upstart's stock has experienced extreme volatility since its IPO in December 2020, surging above $400 before crashing and losing over 95% of its value by early 2023. The stock has shown resilience, finding support near the $20.60 level and resistance above $37. As the stock continues its rapid surge, investors should monitor its behavior around the $35.1 level, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from previous swings, and its medium-term resistance above $37. A weekly close above these levels could signal a new uptrend and provide a safer entry point for fresh long positions. Conversely, a failure to break through these resistances could see the stock fall back to the $21 level. Conclusion Upstart Holdings’ impressive Q2 performance and subsequent stock surge underscore its potential as a transformative player in the fintech sector. While challenges remain, particularly around valuation and economic conditions, the company’s advancements in AI and strong market positioning suggest a promising future. Investors should stay vigilant, monitoring key technical levels and broader market trends to navigate this volatile yet potentially rewarding stock.
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by DEXWireNews
Upstart Holdings, Inc. Announced Financial Result for Q1 2024Upstart Holdings, Inc., ( NASDAQ:UPST ) the leading AI lending marketplace, has announced its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 ended March 31, 2024. The company reported a 24% increase in revenue to $128 million, while total fee revenue increased 18% year-over-year. Transaction volume and conversion rate reached $1.1 billion across the platform, up 13% from the previous year. Income from operations was $67.5 million, up from $131.8 million in the same quarter. Net income and EPS increased by 64.6% and 27.2%, respectively. Contribution profit reached $81.1 million in Q1, up 20% year-over-year, with a contribution margin of 59%. Adjusted EBITDA was $20.3 million, up from $31.1 million in Q1 2021. Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) expects revenue of approximately $125 million in Q2, revenue from fees of around $135 million, net interest income of $10 million, contribution margin of 56%, net income of $75 million, adjusted net income of 36 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $25 million. For the second half of 2024, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) expects revenue from fees of $300 million, and positive EBITDA in the fourth quarter. The company has not reconciled forward-looking non-GAAP measures to comparable GAAP measures due to potential variability and uncertainty in future costs and expenses. Key operating metrics and non-GAAP financial measures are described in the section titled "Key Operating Metrics" below. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable financial results as determined in accordance with GAAP are included at the end of this press release following the accompanying financial data. Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ), an AI-powered lending platform, has been a key player in the market for loans, with the total addressable market (TAM) for annual loan originations reaching $3 trillion. The company's executives have expressed optimism about the future of the company, citing growing consumption and flat personal income rates as driving the need for lending solutions like Upstart's. They anticipate a return to sequential growth in the second half of the year and positive EBITDA by the end of the year, even in the current credit environment. Upstart's ( NASDAQ:UPST ) earnings beat Wall Street expectations, but its forecast for the current quarter came up short compared to market sentiment. The company reported that 90% of loans were fully automated, and 91% of automated approvals converted to funded loans, which is 3x the conversion rate of non-automated loans. Average loan size was down due to robust growth in smaller dollar loans. Upstart's ( NASDAQ:UPST ) revenue rose to $128 million, beating both Wall Street estimates and the company's own. The company's AI and machine learning lending solutions are powered by more than 1,600 variables, with models trained on over 65 million repayment events and adding an average of 82,000 new repayments each business day. With Upstart's AI lending marketplace, the company claims that lenders can approve more borrowers at lower APRs while simultaneously delivering a digital-first experience customers demand. Technical Outlook Despite beating world street expectations Upstart stock ( NASDAQ:UPST ) is down 5.56% with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 45.95 trading below the 200-day Moving Average (MA).
NASDAQ:UPST
by DEXWireNews
1
Navigating the Peaks and Valleys of Upstart Amidst Q4 FY2023Upstart (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) Aims to revolutionize the lending industry through the power of artificial intelligence, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) has garnered attention from both investors and industry insiders alike. However, its recent Q4 FY2023 earnings report has sparked a flurry of discussion and analysis, leaving investors pondering the next move. Let's delve into the depths of Upstart's performance and decipher the signals it sends to prospective investors. Beating Expectations, Yet Missing the Mark Upstart's Q4 FY2023 results undoubtedly showcased strength in certain areas. Surpassing Wall Street analysts' revenue projections by 3.7%, the company demonstrated resilience amidst a challenging economic backdrop. Moreover, the improvement in non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) from a loss of $0.25 to -$0.11 year-on-year signifies a concerted effort towards profitability. However, the euphoria of surpassing revenue expectations was short-lived as attention turned towards the underwhelming quarterly guidance for Q1 2024. With projected revenue of $125 million, significantly below analyst estimates of $151.3 million, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) faces a daunting challenge ahead. The divergence between actual performance and projected outlook raises pertinent questions about the company's growth trajectory and ability to navigate the competitive fintech landscape. Deciphering the Decline in Revenue and Its Implications A closer examination of Upstart's ( NASDAQ:UPST ) revenue trajectory unveils a concerning trend. Over the past two years, the company has experienced a notable decline in revenue, plummeting from $304.8 million in Q4 FY2021 to $140.3 million in the latest quarter. While fluctuations in revenue are not uncommon in the fintech sphere, the magnitude of Upstart's decline warrants scrutiny. Several factors may contribute to this decline, including increased competition, evolving consumer preferences, and regulatory challenges. As the lending landscape continues to evolve, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) must adapt its strategies to remain competitive and capture market share effectively. Balancing Innovation with Prudence: The Path Forward for Upstart Amidst the turbulence of Q4 FY2023 earnings, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) finds itself at a crossroads. The company's innovative AI-powered lending platform has garnered praise for its ability to assess credit risk effectively and expand access to credit. However, sustaining growth and profitability in a fiercely competitive environment requires more than just technological prowess. Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) must strike a delicate balance between innovation and prudence, leveraging its technological capabilities while maintaining a disciplined approach to financial management. This entails optimizing operational efficiencies, diversifying revenue streams, and enhancing customer engagement initiatives. Furthermore, transparent communication with investors is paramount in fostering trust and confidence amidst uncertainty. By providing clarity on strategic priorities, growth prospects, and risk mitigation strategies, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) can mitigate concerns and instill optimism among stakeholders. Conclusion: As investors weigh the implications of Upstart's Q4 FY2023 earnings, one thing remains clear: uncertainty looms large in the fintech landscape. While the company faces challenges on multiple fronts, including declining revenue and underwhelming guidance, opportunities for growth and innovation abound. By embracing resilience and adaptability, Upstart can chart a course towards sustainable growth and long-term value creation. Through strategic investments in technology, talent, and market expansion, the company can solidify its position as a leading player in the fintech ecosystem. As the dust settles on Q4 FY2023 earnings, investors must approach Upstart with a discerning eye, recognizing both its potential and its pitfalls. In navigating the peaks and valleys of Upstart's journey, informed decision-making and a steadfast commitment to long-term value creation will be the guiding principles for investors seeking to capitalize on the promise of fintech innovation.
NASDAQ:UPST
by DEXWireNews
Upstart Selected by MSC Union for Personal Lending Shares of Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) charged sharply on Wednesday, climbing as much as 20.9%. When the market closed, the stock was still up 20.3%. NASDAQ:UPST is trading above all of its Moving Averages reaching a new monthly High today. Without the stock Consolidating. Mutual Security Credit Union (MSCU), a $390+ million financial institution serving the financial needs of western Connecticut, today announced its partnership with Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST), the leading artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace, to provide personal loans to more people. This is a significant vote of confidence for Upstart's AI-powered system, which assesses more than 1,500 variables to determine creditworthiness, resulting in more loans to consumers at lower annual percentage rates (APRs). This latest win also adds to the roster of more than 100 banks and credit unions in Upstart's network.
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by DEXWireNews
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) Counteract The BearsShares of Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) have been struggling lately and have lost 31.2% over the past week. However, a hammer chart pattern was formed in its last trading session, which could mean that the stock found support with bulls being able to counteract the bears. So, it could witness a trend reversal down the road. The formation of a hammer pattern is considered a technical indication of nearing a bottom with likely subsiding of selling pressure. But this is not the only factor that makes a bullish case for the stock. On the fundamental side, strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in raising earnings estimates for this company enhances its prospects of a trend reversal. Here's What Increases the Odds of a Turnaround for UPST An upward trend in earnings estimate revisions that UPST has been witnessing lately can certainly be considered a bullish indicator on the fundamental side. That's because empirical research shows that trends in earnings estimate revisions are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements. Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the current year has increased 0.7%. What it means is that the sell-side analysts covering UPST are majorly in agreement that the company will report better earnings than they predicted earlier.
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by DEXWireNews
UpstartHoldings' stock has reached its low point in January 2022UpstartHoldings' stock has reached its low point in January 2022 This chart shows the weekly candle chart of UpstartHoldings' stocks in the past six months. The graph overlays the recent bottom-up golden section. As shown in the figure, the recent high point of UpstartHoldings' stock has reached its low point in January 2022, but it has not given it the 2.382 gold split in the figure! The stocks of UpstartHoldings are currently in the second small band of accelerated growth after a double dip, and there is still a lot of upside space in the later stage! In the future, it is likely to continue to strengthen after retreating from the 1.382 position of the golden section in the chart!
NASDAQ:UPST
by Think_More
Pre-Earnings Run in $UPSTNASDAQ:UPST has been running up speculatively after completing its bottom. It has mostly retail groups and smaller funds holding so that is why the stock has up and down days in an irrational trend pattern often. HFTs are in the mix regularly inspiring the speculation. The company reports Monday of next week. Looks like Pro Traders used a swing trading earnings strategy and some took profits ahead of the report. The stock has a low percentage of the shares held by institutions, so emotional trading candlestick patterns are problematic at times. It's important to buy and sell with the Pro Trader patterns in speculative stocks.
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:UPST
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
7
AMSC 57% July rise AI tech ( chips) upcoming earnings LONGAMSC has had a great rise since the beginning of the AI revolution. From the overlay of the anchored VWAP this would be a VWAP breakout that closed the last trading day with a correction pullback and then a bounce off the POC line of the volume profile. The natural stop loss for a long trade is directly under the POC line. As a strong bull run stock, the MACD just showed another line cross above the histogram. Amplitudes are rising. This sector is scorching hot. Some will call it overextended and overvalued. Buy weakness - yeah for sure unless its going to get worse. Buy strength when you determine the probability that it will go higher. This long trade will not wait for me. I will take it and be watchful for signs of reversal. I do not think that I will see them anytime soon. With earnings coming this week and trader interest peaking. I will jump in here and watch for good action. To be safe I will take off part of the position before the earnings.
NASDAQ:AMSCLong
by AwesomeAvani
UPST mid-term VIEW Pre Earning LONGUPST on the daily chart with 2022-2023 in range shows a downtrend of more than 70% and now a round bottom reversal. The volume profile shows the high volumes of the high volume area which is relatively thin and mostly below the current price. That is to say, UPST has a lot of volume voids to fill on its way back to $162 . The Triple EMA ( 200,100,50) shows a convergence over a long interval followed by the reversal and now divergence. The MACD indicator is upgoing as are the trends of the dual RS lines of the RSI indicator. I see this as a long swing trade or investment while UPST is awaiting earnings next month. For targets, I plan the red lines generated by the volume profite and so $94 and $161. UPST is on my current favorite stock list. My current holding includes an option striking $51 for 8/4. I will roll that option over about 8/2 to avoid time decay. Additionally, I will buy another option striking $75 and expiring on 9/15 costing about $950 at the market price with the bid/ask spread of about 4%. I expect the combined two call optins will yield on average 5-7% per trading day and may hold them through the earnings period. The only downside risk is that an earnings beat is somehow already priced into UPST and that the momentum will decelerate and fade. Buying the contact cheap and out of the money seeks to manage that risk.
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by AwesomeAvani
25
UPST ready to run higherUPST on the daily chart is 65% below its highs of March 22 . It rose above the long term POC line of the volume profile two months ago after a favorable earnings report. Another earnings will report in a month. There has been very little trading above the current price in the visible range. This means there is little volume resistance to price rise. Price is presently at the longterm mean VWAP anchored 16 months in the past and got there by rising from the support of the line one standard deviation below the mean aVWAP. On the zero-lag MACD, the lines have first crossed under the histogram and then ascended in parallel above the zero line in yet another sign of bullish momentum. Lastly, the three in one indicator including money flow is all green. I readily conclude that UPST is set up well for a long swing trade targetting just below the mentioned swing highs and so $160 or so. This would be about 200% while setting a stop loss at $50. I believe the trade offers a great potential reward to risk and so will open this position while identifying an entry on the 15-30 minute chart looking for a pivot low.
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by AwesomeAvani
22