UPST to under $100 this weekNASDAQ:UPST
UPST still trending down. Looking for $100 and lower this week, down to $88. Needs to hold below $113.
UPST
$UPST - Prime Short CandidateBased on overnight futures action, we may experience a gap down tomorrow.
The chart for $UPST looks awful with the stock losing many key levels of support. We're currently at our last level of support before huge downside.
If we break through 106.5, it's extremely likely we see 91 over the coming days. Will enter a short in the morning if my thesis plays out.
Upstart crumbles making new lows. Will it bounce?Hi everyone,
Today I will demonstrate another example of a catastrophic dump in growth technology stock. This time we are taking a look at Upstart NASDAQ:UPST .
The stock IPOed in December 2020 and I still remember the hype created around it. In August 2021 it started goind parabolic. Classic growth IPO stock.
The entirety of fintwit community seemed to hold this stock in their portfolios. Everyone was boasting how their YTD return is 80% thanks to Upstart performance.
That's when you know it's time to get out.
NASDAQ:UPST topped in October 15. The stock was valued at 420 times earnings.
It's price fell 72% in three months. From 401 all the way down to 111 .
Even after 72% fall TTM P/E ratio of the stock is 113.
Now, the question is will it bounce ?
The stock currently is in a very steep downtrend, which will be broken easily, once determined buyers step in. Thus far, they are nowhere in sight.
Since the IPO by far the largest portion of volume traded occurred in 122-137 price range. In order to rebound we need to see acceptence in this area.
Otherwise, look out for these levels below:
103, 81, 43.
Please let me know what are your thoughts on a current state of the tech sector.
As always, trade wisely and good luck!
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Disclaimer!!!
This is not financial advise
The bottom is in for UPSTUPST looks to have finally bottomed. Overblown sell off is a great buying opportunity. Yesterday's candle is very bullish at a level of support. Entering a riding UPST back to at least $150.
UPST Looks Pretttttttty good...UPST lo
Looks like it could be a big mover.. We will see. It's always great to have ones like these to have fun with!
Check out historically the performance of the stock price when certain conditions are met. Right now we are seeing a bullish trend and possibly break out of a brutal downtrend.
$UPST: Long way down...I think $UPST is poised to fall hard from here, for a good while, back to the start of the crazy uptrend we had since August 2021. I've personally managed to capture a great upside trade, and now moved into speculating on the downside here...I've shared these with my signals service clients in real time, and also commented on it in the Key Hidden Levels chatroom here.
There's a chance the company's business model is fraudulent, and it had an unbelievably crazy upside move recently, which strikes me as a bubble that is bursting. I am not seeing a rational way to justify the valuation it commands and it has a weak to non existent moat when compared against $SOFI or other lenders...Using AI as a buzzword isn't a good enough reason. Their default rates could end up being much worse than they anticipate based on their models too.
Anyways, from a technical perspective, this is a good chance to short the stock given that the weekly uptrend signal that predicted the rally the stock had has expired, and it implies a potential move back down to the start of the trend if weakness ensues. Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
#UPST - Bag Holding - I know it's hard, but keep holding#UPST is pretty close to some previous support and is also close to a Fib level. For those with a long time horizon, I would keep on holding.
UPST Potential Divergence TradeNASDAQ:MARA
Share Price Lower Low, FiFT Pro Higher Low. Divergence Trade
UPST: Possible Strong Bounce Incoming (B Wave...)After some strong selling you UPST is resting on the 200 moving average on the daily - this is a great place for a strong bounce. Also on a fib level of support - not sure what the long term direction could be here but going long for the next leg short term.
Upstart truns to Downstart???Review Upstart chart is highly recommended!
You can learn most of the technical rules in this chart!
But the most important thing you will learn is:
Market sentiment and price pattern are more important than the fundamentals!
While the fundamentals of this company became better and better, the price crashed more than 60% in the past few weeks!
Looking at my previous analysis could be interesting for you!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
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Upstart ~ UPSTUpstart is right at our dip buying opportunity -- I'd buy with your stop loss at 191. Target is 270-310!!!!
If this falls down even more than the 190 lvl we're looking at 173..
-- If we break 170 area then we go to the 130 support next.
UPST - BE READY - SET ALERTS All,
UPST with last ER is just a must watch down here it could hold here, or drop down but I for sure think we have a MASSIVE bounce if it drops down on that trend line.
This is all pending the market. SPY falling knives can slice any mid/large cap.
SPY - AT THAT AREA AGAIN...DIPS MAY DIP EVEN HARDER BE CAREFUL*** I know it's so tempting to jump on option calls for PYPL/UIPST/BIDU/ROKU and many many other huge dips that are 100% undervalued. BE PATIENT. These are selling off so fast and hard when you time this bottom correctly trust me they will blow up for at least 100% in options. Don't assume just because they are undervalued and dipped that SPY cant take a nose dive here to 450-440 and take them further down. Be patient.. WATCH THE MARKET FIRST. Don't get faked out on a tiny bull run for one day that turns up being a huge negative move.
All,
I think we are reaching once again that retest area. There are two arguments here. One that both of these resistance lines have been tested way over 4 times. So in theory eventually dip after drip these break resulting in a breakout and usually a good one. However, for obvious reasons we have pre pandemic, possibly a new one especially in EU right now, already over saturated market, FED news. etc etc I mean negative list goes on. So once again here we are restesting a previous failure. the previous small dip was the first support break and now coming all the way back up retesting it some more.
Given holidays, world news I am not necessarily bearish yet. I am actually wanting a huge bull move again because there are so many dipped stocks.
Is $UPST ready for breakout?After a beautiful bull run now $UPST getting correction. Need to breakout falling wedge for reversal. Mentioned in chart about reversal met support now $206 want here to create a base for reversal. If it misses to hold here next big level will be $191 support level. Good earnings and good growth in revenue stocks to be holder for long run good returns but don’t chase it in down trend let it settle down a mentioned base and start making reversal uptrend.
IS $UPST READY FOR BREAKOUT?$UPST after a beautiful bull run now it is getting correction and need to breakout the falling wedge for reversal. Mentioned points in chart about reversal. Currently $UPST met the support $206 want here to create a base for reversal if it misses to hold next big level will be on $191 support level. Good earnings and good growth stock to be hold for long run but don’t chase it in down trend let it settle down and start making reversal.
DIPS YOU HAVE TO WATCH - DKNG/PYPL/UPST/BIDU/NIO/ROKU/FIGSAll,
BE PATIENT. Let the market do it's thing and get conformation. There is ALOT of money to be made here if you are patient with call options. I see ROKU/PYPL as immediate buys once market turns around. UPST as well but not tons of support.
FIGS id watch every 30m this one is positive ER really undervalued here on serious support basically a wedge. I like FIGS if it holds or breaks below id watch that even more. FIGS whenever it fully stops I will probably take.
MQGo long on MQ .. seems to be in a falling wedge and has potential to move higher IMO.
Seems like a s/t bottom is in for now at least.
$AFRM Consolidating at a tough range.$AFRM consolidating on range between $144 to $149 tried to break but failed. falling EMA clouds are curving now it is crucial moment to hold this level and retest to break $150 level to create a reversal upside trend. if failed to hold this level will see down Fall $134.
$UPST Trade Idea $UPST had a bad report for earnings gapping it down. Saw some big selling going on today with buyers stepping in for tons of bearish flow. I will look for more continuation on this to the downside tomorrow.
Ticker: $UPST
Entry: 229.50
Targets: 225.25, 218.50, 210.50, and 200
Stop Loss: 15%
Will update in PM.
Upstart ~ $UPSTUpst might be able to find some support here near 244, if it doesn't this would be a huge break to the downside and I'd enable to open puts in this name... AFRM looks like it's on thin lining as well.
UPST retracement - Publishing my own idea, come to own conclusions.
Fibonnacci says it's retraced and MACD and RSI are near bottom. CCI is at a low and doubt going lower. CCI with other indicators are best to buy at bottom or crossing 0.
UPST earnings a year ago was positive and now $0.60 for QTR, reported revenue is up 3x from a year ago and only double from $125.
Good entry point to not worry about, but fun enough to watch. Too many panic around earnings looking at all the red and green spikes.
ROKU - STRONG CONFLUENCE SUPPORT & AVG $30+ BOUNCE OFF TREND All,
OVERALL (BULLISH 70/30)
I think we break out this wedge down here either now or one more attempt on bottom of wedge and hit 280-293. However, see details below. I am most likely going to hedge downside depending how Mon/Tues go. A breakout Mon-Tues I will just go into maintenance mode and watch it closely.
FUNDAMENTALS
Let's get to fundamnetals first. There are some "doubters" on ROKU. However, they may be right in the future as of NOW in the past quarter financialls and NOW as a company ROKU is very undervalued here reardless of future ROKU beliefs. If you want to be short next quarter for reasons "XYZ" totally get that. Arguing against ROKU after 600% EPS and customers Y/Y drastically increasing it's very obvious ROKU is worth 375+ at a "fair" valuation.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
There is a very stong support trend line here that is holding on average acting as support we have $30-$50 moves off of it regardles of what comes after.
MY POSITION(S)
$300 Calls Dec 3rd 2021 @ $3.65
(Will add pending non breakout by Tues) -- Either $265 or $255 PUTS for Dec 3rd 2021 (May want to add some regardless just as protection or even shorter timeframe)
**Remember on options you can close/sell at any time there is a good chance if I get that 293 clean and soon I might just sell there and take a pretty solid profit. Or sell half and see if we can break the downward trend to push 315-330 area.**
BULLISH
PT #1: 285
PT #2: 293
PT #3: 304
PT #4: 330/342 --- "wait and see if we can break downward trend will be 3rdish time so 50/50 it breaks barring any bad/good news. Also approaching Christmas/Black Friday time.
BEARISH
I think the bearish comes from the obvious part of it not being able to re obtain that 376ish level. We are currently above that other previous low of 372. A break under that signls a possible big downside of 240s. The other factor is the overall market/SPY/Holidays/Feds
PT# 1: 267
PT# 2: 255
PT #3: 244
PT #4: 220 (if we somehow got down 220-240 range I will immediately swap to 100% calls and a huge buy in as the stock would be at such a mind blowing discount.
