BTC Bulls are fighting off the Bears...it's not over yet.Since my first post last week, I identified an Elliott Wave count at the very beginning of the 1st impulse wave. Since then, I've had to adjust the 2nd correction wave several times, as this is a much more protracted and deeper correction than expected. You can see that the correction fell out of the uptrend channel, but found several support levels outside of the channel and is clawing its way back in. My first estimate of wave 2 was a 50% retrace at the 9400 level. Bulls and Bears fought over that level most of Sunday and Monday. Then that level was lost and I aimed for the 61.8% retrace at the 9265 level, but that level was broken yesterday. Since then, the fight has been hovering at the 78.6% retrace level, 9069, with a pierce downward through that temporarily. At that point, we have witnessed a bounce back to the 61.8% retrace.
This is all good developments for the Elliott Wave. The uptrending EW impulse of Wave 1 stays valid as long as Wave 2 stays above 100% retrace. In fact, I think this deep and protracted retrace could indicate a strong and large Wave 3 up through the 10,000 level. Of course this is a major resistance line and I expect some minor wave corrections at this level.
On the flip side, if this current bounce off the 78.6% retrace doesn't last, and BTC drops below the 100% retrace level of wave 1 at 8818, that invalidates my EW count and price would fall with the first major resistance at around the 8,000 level. My red boxes indicate resistance levels upon falling prices and my green boxes indicate targets for my Elliott Waves.
But at this point, my EW counts are holding and I have also added my EW counts on previous action and found some solid support for this idea, so I'm staying Bullish on BTC. Happy trading!
Have a Great Day!
