URA
Uranium - Light at the end of the tunnel?I don´t think there is a sector that is more hated than uranium. Everything looks very bleak. This is a true contrarian bet.
I`m using Cameco as a proxy for the uranium market.
As you can see in the chart, this might be the first time in the last 5 years that the uranium market is going to make a higher yearly low.
The entry provides a great R/R as one can set SL right below the recent lows or below 2016 lows.
If there was anyone left holding long it seems they capitulated on friday, when Cameco announced its third quarter loss.
I plan to hold this stock among other uranium companies multiple years, as long as the general markets don´t collapse or there is another Fukushima like event.
Company related worries:
- Tax dispute with the Canada Revenue Agency, billions of dollars at stake, decision is expected within the next 18 months
- Dispute with TEPCO, which recently terminated massive supply deal, the case is expected to be heard in 2019
- Cameco stopped selling into the spot market, most of its contract portfolio will expire in 2021, if spot prices don´t rise until then, Cameco would likely loose this Game of Chicken with power companies
The key to me is this: Before Fukushima utilities bought uranium 5-10 years in advance, now they are buying 2-3 years in advance. This is understandable given the uncertainty around the future of nuclear power and current oversupply. It left the market with little buyers and low volume transactions determining the price, but also hundred millions of pounds of uranium that aren't currently covered by supply contracts. (800 million pounds between now and 2026 according to Cameco) One can easily see what could happen if these power companies were forced to cover their contracts into rising prices.
-> In the end it will come down to whose projections of future global nuclear power capacity prove correct.
Outside of some black swan event that crushes the supply side, i think this market will come back to life as it died, through Japan.
Five reactors have restarted to date, a further 21 reactors are in the process of restart approval.
With Abe winning the election this seems only a matter of time.
My first "target" for the market would be to not make a lower low than in 2016. Ideally stay above recent lows.
In 2018-2020 I want to see uranium prices start to rise slowly.
Longterm I´m looking for a price of 60$ per pound.
URA - Fallen angel type of momentum long from $13.77 to $23.73URA is forming a very nice uptrend. Moneyflow was diverging & now broken to the positive side. And on the weekly frame it seems it has huge upside potential.
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- July 13, 2017
Pattern/Why- Fallen angel type Long
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $13.77
Exit Target Criteria- 1st Target $16.93; 2nd Target $23.73
Stop Loss Criteria- $12.23
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
4th of July Fireworks in Uranium Price ? Final low in Uranium? Harmonic bullish bat pattern in uranium price recently.
Plus 10 year GANN cycle completed on June 30, 2017 exactly 10 years from the previous peak at June 30, 2007.
So a harmonic bullish BAT pattern and a 10 year GANN (the greatest trader who ever lived ) cycle on June 30th ? I will take those odds any day.
I am no expert in GANN, but these confluence of data is impressive to say the least.
Put uranium on the RADAR.
comments please !!!!
URA: Uranium ETF bottomed after a terminal pattern completion?It's possible the Uranium ETF $URA has bottomed here. If this is the case, we can expect a rapid rally as depicted on chart. Odds are low, but risk/reward is significant if this trade works well. You can enter with a tight stop under the lows, or risk 3x the ATR value down from entry.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Uranium at Crucial SpotVery important spot here for URA. We'll need a nice reversal bar tomorrow otherwise this idea needs to be shelved until further notice. Fundamentals are still bullish here, but we just need the technicals to come around.
URA as Uranium makes a comebackUranium has been under pressure for ages. But now the trend seems to be changing with new ATH on monthly RSI and price knocking on a b/o. When above 17 this could target 24.
Long Uranium Miners This investment idea is not written for the ethical investors among us. ;)
Nevertheless, I would like to show you the possible reversal in the uranium miners trend.
The monthly chart clearly observe bullish divergence (incl. Falling wedge). In addition, an inverted hammer is formed this month. If the bottom is set, then I see a lot of upside potential for the URA to perhaps $39 (+200%) in the following months. Stoploss can be set @ $10 (-20%).
Beware of the high volatility of the ETF. It will be a bumpy ride, for sure.
Uranium is trending up and has been oversold for years.Taking a long position here. This is the only unhedged uranium miner in the industry. They had halted production during the low U prices, but prices are on the upswing and they will capitalize from it. Their in-situ recovery method is established, they have reserves, and they own a ton of property in the USA. The best part of the story... the CEO is Iranian and runs a Uranium company in Texas.
CCJ: RETESTING TRIANGLE BREAKOUTCCJ retesting triangle break out. Positive divergence exists here as well as in most of the uranium stocks and can be seen by a mile.
Sector is so depressed the last few years that sentiment is touching the floors.
Good R/R for long term positions.
Cheers,
Panos
