Uranium
4/3/22 CCJCameco Corporation (NYSE:CCJ)
Sector: Non-Energy Minerals (Other Metals/Minerals)
Market Capitalization: 11.562B
Current Price: $29.03
Breakout price: $30.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $27.10-$24.65
Price Target: $34.80-$36.00 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 150-160d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $CCJ 9/16/22 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.55/contract
Comparing ASX uranium stockscomparison of
OKR OKAPI RESOURCES
PDN PALADIN ENERGY
PEN PENINSULA ENERGY
VMY VIMY RESOURCES
UEC Uranium Energy Corp
BOE BOSS ENERGY
DYL DEEP YELLOW
CCJ: Potential Gap Fill to UpsideCCJ's price action seeing responsive participants with alternative energy leading the market amidst heightened oil prices. While key levels on acute time frames are being tested by both buyers and sellers, CCJ's weekly optics present continuous range extension. While price action has begun to pierce a gap previously seen from April 2011, KL of 28.45 would be more indicative of reclaim in higher value areas (30.71) ; Continuation into mid 30's would materialize a cup and handle pattern on the Weekly// Technical analysis reflects MACD cross, price action over key moving averages, and a high correlation regression channel on the daily time frame. Bias is long on premise of global events related to commodity and tensions in Europe// ATR: 1.49,Beta: 1.01
$CCJ closed calls for small gain and went shortCCJ daily candle closed pretty bearish today, and looking at the two upper resistance lines, I'm favoring the downside trade after taking small gains on my longs.
An idea would be to go short with MARC 23 puts.
First target is the 20day MA (blue line) , a break lower there and I'd be targeting the trendline support (black line)
$URNM - Available At a DiscountRussian forces recklessly shelled a nuclear plant last week.
This led to a sell-off over concerns that countries might take a step back from nuclear power.
This turned out to be an emotional overreaction. The plant was completely safe, and only an administrative building was damaged.
Uranium plays are now available at a relative discount.
According to Reuters, "The United States relies on Russia and its allies Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan for roughly half of the uranium powering its nuclear plants - about 22.8 million pounds (10.3 million kg) in 2020 - which in turn produce about 20% of U.S. electricity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the World Nuclear Association."
"There is no uranium production or processing in the United States currently, though several companies have said they would like to resume domestic production if they can sign long-term supply contracts with nuclear power producers. Texas and Wyoming have large uranium reserves.
Australia and Canada also have large reserves of uranium and there is ample processing capability there and in Europe. But Russia and its satellites are the cheapest producers."
So with the White House considering sanctions on the cheapest available uranium, the price of this commodity will undoubtedly rise over coming weeks and months.
According to World Nuclear Association, "Russia has substantial economic resources of uranium, with about 9% of world reasonably assured resources plus inferred resources up to $130/kg – 505,900 tonnes U (2014 Red Book)."
This seems like a great play for a move back above $100.
UUUUlooks like my Z wave is playing out for the UUUU here, to understand WXYXZ pattern is to know that a series of 3-3-3-3-3 wave patterns have evolved and they are sideways in the chart not compressed into a triangle which would rule the 3 wave pattern as an ABCDE. Now looking at the stoch RSI and also the standard RSI we can see they are both dropping from over bought with room to drop, also the daily rsi has much room. If the Z wave ends up in typical Z wave fashion it would look like the start of an impulse but is actually the end of the WXYXZ pattern and shows all bullish momo has finished . So if I'm correct we are in W2 on H4 and the daily should hit 1.618 fib lvl for a W3 around $4.70 to confirm my chart.
CCJ URA Uranium Bulls running with itI like the idea of going long CCJ April 26 calls or a 26/28 debit spread with more time.
Uranium bulls have defended the trendline support and nice volume with technical indicators and moving averages implying more upside on a strong day already today.
Stop is below 20 day moving average (black line).
2/27/22 CCJCameco Corporation ( NYSE:CCJ )
Sector: Non-Energy Minerals (Other Metals/Minerals)
Market Capitalization: 9.085B
Current Price: $22.81
Breakout price: $22.95
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $22.10-$20.55
Price Target: $26.40-$26.90 (1st), $28.30-$29.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 46-48d (1st), 90-93d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $CCJ 4/14/22 24c. $CCJ 5/20/22 24c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.48/contract, $1.80/contract
Uranium Preparing for an 80% Move UpwardsThe SPROTT Physical Uranium Trust TSX:U.U is showing a triangle formation on the daily chart. There is a number of reasons why I am inclined towards higher Uranium prices:
1. Rising inflation.
2. Rising commodity prices.
3. Supply chain problems (although doesn't apply to Uranium that much).
4. Energy Crisis!
5. The world starting to see that Nuclear energy is the proper choice forward until we can transition to fully renewable energy infrastructure in 50 years or more. (this one will not affect price soon of course).
6. Uranium is not expensive as fuel at all. It costs only 5% of the annual expenditure of a nuclear plant. So price has a lot of room to go up before it's considered too expensive.
7. We have a Physical Uranium Trust now. So the market has direct exposure to physical uranium that was never there before.
With all that, the move hasn't yet been confirmed because we haven't broken the top of the triangle yet. Keep watching this post as I update it. If you are interested in this trade, set up an alert on TradingView and follow me for an update for my trade setup.
SPROTT PHYSICAL URANIUM TRUSTPOSITION TRADE
U.UN (TSE), SRUUF (OTC)
Catalysts:
The uranium market is in structural supply/demand deficit despite nuclear energy being an essential and growing form of clean energy.
Financial players and a utility contracting cycle mark near-term catalysts.
I expect both physical uranium and uranium producer baskets to aggressively outperform over the coming 1-3+ years.
Financial players significantly escalated their role in the uranium market, in particular, the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (OTCPK:SRUUF). This trust exists to provide investors exposure to physical uranium, but in so doing, they take and sequester physical pounds from the market. Note that Yellow Cake plc (OTCPK:YLLXF) is a similar trust for UK based investors, although it is much less active in purchasing uranium.
SOURCE : Uranium: Potential Trade Of The Decade, SEEKING ALPHA, Live Hard Investing, Feb. 10, 2022
seekingalpha.com
Uranium - Is it getting ready for yet another rally? Over the past two years, the uranium sector has been experiencing a deficit on the supply side which led to a surge of more than 300% in the price of Global X Uranium ETF. The situation was even further exacerbated when in January 2022 Kazakhstan, world's largest producer, saw civil unrest spreading across the country. We foresee the deficit in the uranium market to be persistent throughout the whole year 2022 which we expect to have a positive impact on the price of this yellow metal. Recently, URA ETF saw bullish developments taking place on the daily time frame which possibly sets it for another rally.
Top ten biggest producers of uranium by country (2020):
1. Kazakhstan = 19 477 tonnes (approximately 41% of world supply)
2. Australia = 6 203 tonnes
3. Namibia = 5 413 tonnes
4. Canada = 3 885 tonnes
5. Uzbekistan = 3 500 tonnes
6. Niger = 2 991 tonnes
7. Russia = 2 846 tonnes
8. China = 1 885 tonnes
9. Ukraine = 744 tonnes
10. India = 400 tonnes
Meanwhile, the U.S. produced only 6 tonnes of uranium in 2020 which leaves it heavily dependent on foreign producers.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is very bullish. MACD is bullish, though it still remains in the bearish territory. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- performed bullish crossover recently. However, ADX contains low value which suggests no trend is currently present in URA. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish.
Illustration 1.01
Picture above depicts the daily chart of the URA ETF. It also shows resistance at slope. We will observe price action closely and we will look whether it manages to break above the resistance. If breakout occurs, then we expect such a phenomenon to strongly bolster the bullish case for the URA ETF.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI continues to develop bearish structure. However, it already reversed which is bullish. We will watch whether it will manage to break its bearish structure. MACD is bearish but it shows first signs of flattening. Stochastic oscillates in the bearish territory, however, it points to the upside at the moment. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. ADX suggests a lack of prevailing trend. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish but signals very weak or no trend at all.
Support and resistance
Major resistance lies at 31.60 USD. Short-term resistance sits at 23.26 USD. Resistance 1 is at 26.37 USD and Resistance 2 at 28.72 USD. Resistance 3 is at 29.77 USD. Short-term support sits at 21.72 USD. Support 2 can be found at 17.23 USD.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
$URA weekly chart uranium rotationoil money rotated into natgas and we saw some massive gains this week. 2000% on our UNG calls.
everyone is ignoring uranium just like they did natural gas. this whole russia debacle is about ENERGY not oil.
if it costs more to produce electricity via natural gas , uranium will become more profitable as its at these lows.
simple supply and demand
SPROTT Physical Uranium Trust. A Simple Short-Term Trade.TSX:U.U is showing an ascending triangle on the hourly that spans the past eight trading days. This is a simple trade with the stop loss below the swing low and the target at the height of the triangle. Gives us a 6.83% potential profit to 3.1% potential loss, a reward-risk ratio of 2.22. Of course that depends on whether the triangle breaks upwards in the first place. If it does, we have a confirmation and the trade is on. I anticipate it going up because the Dollar is weakening and commodities are going up. Good luck with the trade.