ETH - Make or Break Zone!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
ETH is currently hovering around the lower bound of its range in the shape of an ascending triangle.
📈As long as the lower red trendline holds, a continuation towards the upper bound of the triangle is expected.
In parallel, if the last major low in red at $2,300 is broken downward, a dip towards the $2,000 - $2,100 weekly support would be anticipated.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen first? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
US
GOLD REACHES NEW HEIGHTS AMID RISING SAFE-HAVEN DEMANDUS economic data
Positive news came from the jobless claims, which dropped to 241,000, much lower than expected and down from the revised 260,000 from the previous week. US retail sales also did better than predicted, rising by 0.4% from the month before, compared to an expected 0.3% increase. Nonetheless, positive retail sales and strong jobless claims are unlikely to alter the course of the Fed's monetary policy.
ECB rate cut
ECB cuts rates as expected and upcoming months will be crucial as the ECB evaluates economic conditions and decides on its future monetary policy approach.
US dollar index-
The US dollar index showed a minor decline due to profit booking. A break above 104 would confirm a continuation of the bullish trend.
Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has risen to 92.2%, up from 89.50% just a week ago.
EURUSD Flat To Start November Elections Ahead The EURUSD has been quite flat to start the month of November. The current market price is hovering around 1.08730, which is within about 10 pips of the November month open price. Today the Bank of Australia will be releasing new data regarding interest rates, this could possibly give some volatility to the market for US pairs. Don't forget that the US Federal Election will be held tomorrow. Traders will be looking for a spike, for now we will be waiting for the news.
Technical Review - Agape ATP Corporation (ATPC) Agape ATP Corporation (ATPC) is showing promising signs of a potential upward breakout as it consolidates within a steady range, with strong support observed at $1.50. This level has consistently attracted buyers, reinforcing confidence and creating a solid foundation for a bullish move. Should the price continue to hold above this point, it indicates healthy accumulation, positioning ATPC for potential growth.
On the upside, $2.00 has emerged as the primary resistance level, but recent price action suggests a brewing momentum to break through this barrier. A successful move beyond $2.00, especially if accompanied by an increase in trading volume, would signal a breakout, opening up a pathway to $2.50. This resistance level serves as the next target, where a surge could propel the stock into a new trading range, attracting more bullish interest.
Supporting this outlook, the technical indicators add strength to the bullish case. While the MACD reflects a steady buying interest, the MCDX Plus shows signs of accumulation with increasing momentum in the green zone. This suggests that buyers are building up positions, indicating underlying strength that could fuel a significant rally once the $2.00 level is breached.
In summary, ATPC is primed for a bullish breakout, with a solid support base at $1.50 and clear resistance at $2.00. Investors should keep an eye on the volume and momentum indicators, as a sustained move above $2.00 could lead to further gains towards $2.50 and beyond.
Potential bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 103.82
1st Support: 103.44
1st Resistance: 104.57
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TSLA - Did it again...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 TSLA has been trading within a large symmetrical triangle marked in blue.
In our last two analyses, TESLA rejected the lower bound of the range and the $200 support zone.
Currently, TSLA is hovering near the upper bound of its range. We’ll be looking for new long positions as it approaches the lower blue trendline.
📚 The blue trendline also intersects with the orange demand zone, further strengthening this area.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Potential bullish reversal?USO/USD is reacting on the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 67.63
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 65.52
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level .
Take profit: 70.16
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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US30: Seize the Opportunity - Buy Signal Active!US30: Seize this buying opportunity on the US30, as market conditions indicate a potential upward trend. The US30 is currently in a reversal phase, making it an ideal time to enter the market. Pay close attention to technical signals and indicators, as the US30 could soon experience a strong rise. Don't miss this buying opportunity on the US30 to maximize your gains.
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance level which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 103.33
1st Support: 102.83
1st Resistance: 103.98
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XAUUSD | Market outlookGold Reserve Diversification: At the LBMA conference, central bank representatives shared that gold purchases are driven by financial and strategic goals.
US Election Impact:
Uncertainty over the upcoming presidential elections, with Trump and Harris closely tied in polls, is prompting banks to hedge risks.
Geopolitical Risks: Tensions in the Middle East are also boosting gold, with Israel expressing readiness to target Iran's military infrastructure.
Price Trends:
Long-term trend: Upward, aiming to break the historical high of 2685.00 . Potential targets: 2750.00 and 2810.00 if consolidation succeeds.
Support and Correction: If the price drops to 2602.00 , long positions toward 2685.00 are favourable. A breakout below 2602.00 could trigger a correction targeting 2546.00 and 2471.00 .
Medium-term trend:
Correction: Last week’s correction did not reach key support at 2575.61–2564.61 . If a reversal occurs, the price could rise to 2685.61 and potentially 2712.70–2701.70 .
Correction Scenario: If another correction develops, the price may revisit 2575.61–2564.61 , followed by growth toward 2625.00 and 2685.00 .
VRNS - VARONISVRNS - No Breakout yet
This is a leader +168% from 2023, a long cup & handle.
A recent consolidation with higher lows and volatility contraction (VCP).
It is just missing a big breakout that did not happen yesterday, will be cautious about that
Entry 57.15
Stop loss 55.55
TP1 30-50%: after 4-5 days
Stop follow up (visual) with EMA 10 or EMA 20
Will geopolitical tension support oil prices?
Kazakhstan planned to cut its oil output, while Russia reported lower production in Sep, restricting the supply.
Meanwhile, the heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East increases concerns over oil production and transport.
At the same time, market participants remain optimistic about the US economy, which could support oil demand. Today's NFP release may provide insights regarding the US job markets.
USOIL has significantly recovered from its low last month. The price retested its support at 67.50 USD per barrel before closing above its psychological support at 70.00 USD per barrel.
If USOIL sustains its upward momentum, the price may retest the following resistance at 75.00 USD per barrel.
On the contrary, USOIL may return to 70.00 USD per barrel if the price retraces before its continuation.
USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week!USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week (Sept 23-29, 2024)
As we look ahead to the coming week, USDJPY appears poised for a potential slightly bullish bias. This outlook is based on a confluence of fundamental factors and current market conditions that favor USD strength relative to the Japanese yen. Below is a breakdown of key drivers supporting this outlook, along with insights that could influence price action.
1. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance
One of the key drivers for a potential bullish bias in USDJPY next week is the persistent hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. Although the Fed opted to pause rate hikes in September, policymakers have indicated that they are open to further tightening if inflationary pressures persist. Recent inflation data in the U.S. showed a slight uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), suggesting that the Fed may still consider additional rate hikes in 2024. Higher U.S. interest rates would continue to bolster the U.S. dollar, driving demand for USDJPY as traders seek yield differentials.
2. Bank of Japan's Dovish Policy
In stark contrast to the Fed, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy, including negative interest rates and yield curve control. The BoJ's dovish approach continues to weigh on the Japanese yen, especially in an environment where other major central banks are tightening monetary policy. While some market participants expect the BoJ to consider policy changes in the future, there have been no concrete signals indicating a shift in the near term. This widening policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ is a key factor supporting a bullish outlook for USDJPY.
3. Safe Haven Demand Waning
The yen is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, particularly during periods of global market volatility. However, recent market stability, coupled with optimism surrounding global growth prospects, has reduced demand for the yen as a haven. As risk sentiment improves, investors are more likely to allocate capital into higher-yielding assets, which could further weaken the yen.
Moreover, geopolitical tensions that previously supported yen demand have eased slightly, making USDJPY more likely to drift higher in a low-risk environment.
4. U.S. Treasury Yields Rising
Another factor contributing to the bullish bias in USDJPY is the rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Higher yields on U.S. government bonds make the dollar more attractive to foreign investors, adding upward pressure to USDJPY. The correlation between USDJPY and U.S. Treasury yields is well-documented, and as yields rise, so too does the currency pair. Traders will be closely monitoring U.S. economic data next week, including durable goods orders and GDP figures, to gauge the potential for further yield increases.
5. Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels
From a technical perspective, USDJPY is trading within a well-defined range, but with a slight bullish bias as long as it holds above key support at the 147.50 level. A break above the psychological 150.00 level could open the door to further upside, with resistance seen at 151.50. On the downside, failure to hold above 147.50 could lead to a test of lower levels around 146.00. Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are currently neutral but leaning slightly toward overbought territory, suggesting room for further gains before a pullback.
6. U.S. Economic Data Next Week
Next week, market participants will pay close attention to several high-impact economic reports out of the U.S., including the Durable Goods Orders on Tuesday and GDP Growth on Thursday. Positive readings on these metrics could fuel further gains in USDJPY, reinforcing the bullish bias. Conversely, any disappointing data could dampen USD strength and lead to some consolidation in the pair.
Conclusion
Given the combination of hawkish signals from the Fed, the BoJ's ongoing dovish stance, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and waning safe-haven demand, USDJPY appears to have a slightly bullish bias heading into next week. Traders should watch for any shifts in risk sentiment or unexpected economic data that could alter this outlook. The key levels to watch are 147.50 for support and 150.00 for resistance.
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USD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Bias Expected – Key Factors to Watch.USD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Bias Expected – Key Factors to Watch (20/09/2024)
As we analyze the USD/JPY pair on 20/09/2024, the outlook appears to be slightly bullish for this week and next. Several key drivers are pushing the U.S. dollar higher against the Japanese yen, creating an attractive opportunity for traders. In this article, we’ll break down the fundamental factors behind this forecast and highlight the elements influencing USD/JPY price action in the coming days.
1. US Dollar Strength Bolsters USD/JPY
The strength of the U.S. dollar is a critical factor contributing to the bullish bias in USD/JPY. With the Federal Reserve signaling a commitment to maintaining high interest rates for an extended period, the greenback remains in demand. Fed officials have recently emphasized their concerns about persistent inflation, leading markets to believe that U.S. interest rates will stay elevated for longer than previously expected.
This hawkish monetary stance, coupled with strong economic data, has made the U.S. dollar more attractive to investors. As a result, USD/JPY has been moving higher, with the strong dollar likely to continue exerting upward pressure on the pair.
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2. Dovish Bank of Japan Keeps the Yen Weak
On the other side of the equation, the Japanese yen remains under pressure due to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ultra-loose monetary policy. The BoJ has shown no signs of tightening monetary policy in the near term, despite global inflationary trends. Japan’s central bank continues to prioritize economic support, maintaining low interest rates while avoiding any drastic policy shifts.
This dovish stance contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy, widening the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. This is a major driver of USD/JPY’s bullish outlook, as investors gravitate towards the higher-yielding U.S. dollar over the lower-yielding yen.
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3. Interest Rate Differentials Favor USD/JPY Upside
One of the most important factors pushing USD/JPY higher is the widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. While U.S. Treasury yields remain attractive, the yield on Japanese government bonds remains low due to the BoJ’s dovish policy stance. This gap in yields makes the U.S. dollar more appealing for investors seeking better returns.
The widening interest rate gap is a key bullish signal for USD/JPY, as capital continues to flow into U.S. dollar-denominated assets. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish tone, and the BoJ remains accommodative, this dynamic will likely support the bullish bias for USD/JPY.
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4. Japanese Economic Weakness Adding Pressure on the Yen
Another factor supporting the bullish bias for USD/JPY is the ongoing weakness in the Japanese economy. Japan has struggled with slow economic growth and weak inflation, further justifying the BoJ’s cautious approach to monetary policy. Domestic consumption remains low, and Japan’s economic recovery has been uneven.
As a result, the Japanese yen continues to face downside pressure, while the U.S. dollar benefits from stronger economic fundamentals. This divergence between the U.S. and Japanese economies adds to the case for a stronger USD/JPY in the coming weeks.
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5. USD/JPY Technical Analysis Suggests Further Upside Potential
From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY is showing signs of further upside. The pair has been testing key resistance levels, and if these levels are broken, we could see a more significant bullish move. The recent price action has shown strength, with USD/JPY consistently finding support at higher lows.
Traders should watch for a potential breakout above these resistance zones, as it could signal further gains for USD/JPY. With strong fundamentals supporting the pair, the technical outlook aligns with the overall bullish bias.
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Conclusion: Bullish Bias Expected for USD/JPY
In conclusion, several fundamental and technical factors support a slightly bullish bias for USD/JPY over the next couple of weeks. The ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar, the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan, favorable interest rate differentials, and Japan’s economic challenges all point towards further upside potential for USD/JPY.
Traders and investors should closely monitor these key drivers as they make their trading decisions. As always, staying updated on central bank policies, economic data, and technical signals will be crucial in navigating the USD/JPY price action during this period.
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