Will the Dollar Index Redefine Global Economic Equilibrium?In the intricate dance of international trade and geopolitical strategy, the Dollar Index emerges as a critical compass navigating the turbulent waters of economic uncertainty. The article illuminates how this financial barometer reflects the profound implications of proposed tariffs by the U.S. administration, revealing a complex interplay of currencies, trade relationships, and global market sentiments that extend far beyond mere numerical fluctuations.
The proposed tariffs targeting key trading partners like Canada, Mexico, and China represent more than economic policy—they are strategic maneuvers with potential seismic shifts in global trade dynamics. As the Dollar Index climbs, reflecting the U.S. dollar's strength, it simultaneously exposes the delicate balance of international economic relationships. The potential consequences ripple through supply chains, consumer markets, and diplomatic corridors, challenging the post-World War II trade paradigm and forcing nations to recalibrate their economic strategies in real time.
Beyond the immediate market reactions, these developments signal a broader philosophical question about economic sovereignty and interdependence. The tariff proposals challenge long-established multilateral agreements, potentially accelerating a transformation in how nations perceive economic collaboration. While the immediate impact is visible in currency fluctuations and market volatility, the long-term implications could reshape global economic architecture, prompting a reevaluation of the U.S. dollar's role as the predominant global reserve currency and testing the resilience of international trade networks.
US-DOLLAR
Potential bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 103.82
1st Support: 103.44
1st Resistance: 104.57
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USD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Bias Expected – Key Factors to Watch.USD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Bias Expected – Key Factors to Watch (20/09/2024)
As we analyze the USD/JPY pair on 20/09/2024, the outlook appears to be slightly bullish for this week and next. Several key drivers are pushing the U.S. dollar higher against the Japanese yen, creating an attractive opportunity for traders. In this article, we’ll break down the fundamental factors behind this forecast and highlight the elements influencing USD/JPY price action in the coming days.
1. US Dollar Strength Bolsters USD/JPY
The strength of the U.S. dollar is a critical factor contributing to the bullish bias in USD/JPY. With the Federal Reserve signaling a commitment to maintaining high interest rates for an extended period, the greenback remains in demand. Fed officials have recently emphasized their concerns about persistent inflation, leading markets to believe that U.S. interest rates will stay elevated for longer than previously expected.
This hawkish monetary stance, coupled with strong economic data, has made the U.S. dollar more attractive to investors. As a result, USD/JPY has been moving higher, with the strong dollar likely to continue exerting upward pressure on the pair.
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2. Dovish Bank of Japan Keeps the Yen Weak
On the other side of the equation, the Japanese yen remains under pressure due to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ultra-loose monetary policy. The BoJ has shown no signs of tightening monetary policy in the near term, despite global inflationary trends. Japan’s central bank continues to prioritize economic support, maintaining low interest rates while avoiding any drastic policy shifts.
This dovish stance contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy, widening the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. This is a major driver of USD/JPY’s bullish outlook, as investors gravitate towards the higher-yielding U.S. dollar over the lower-yielding yen.
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3. Interest Rate Differentials Favor USD/JPY Upside
One of the most important factors pushing USD/JPY higher is the widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. While U.S. Treasury yields remain attractive, the yield on Japanese government bonds remains low due to the BoJ’s dovish policy stance. This gap in yields makes the U.S. dollar more appealing for investors seeking better returns.
The widening interest rate gap is a key bullish signal for USD/JPY, as capital continues to flow into U.S. dollar-denominated assets. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish tone, and the BoJ remains accommodative, this dynamic will likely support the bullish bias for USD/JPY.
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4. Japanese Economic Weakness Adding Pressure on the Yen
Another factor supporting the bullish bias for USD/JPY is the ongoing weakness in the Japanese economy. Japan has struggled with slow economic growth and weak inflation, further justifying the BoJ’s cautious approach to monetary policy. Domestic consumption remains low, and Japan’s economic recovery has been uneven.
As a result, the Japanese yen continues to face downside pressure, while the U.S. dollar benefits from stronger economic fundamentals. This divergence between the U.S. and Japanese economies adds to the case for a stronger USD/JPY in the coming weeks.
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5. USD/JPY Technical Analysis Suggests Further Upside Potential
From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY is showing signs of further upside. The pair has been testing key resistance levels, and if these levels are broken, we could see a more significant bullish move. The recent price action has shown strength, with USD/JPY consistently finding support at higher lows.
Traders should watch for a potential breakout above these resistance zones, as it could signal further gains for USD/JPY. With strong fundamentals supporting the pair, the technical outlook aligns with the overall bullish bias.
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Conclusion: Bullish Bias Expected for USD/JPY
In conclusion, several fundamental and technical factors support a slightly bullish bias for USD/JPY over the next couple of weeks. The ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar, the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan, favorable interest rate differentials, and Japan’s economic challenges all point towards further upside potential for USD/JPY.
Traders and investors should closely monitor these key drivers as they make their trading decisions. As always, staying updated on central bank policies, economic data, and technical signals will be crucial in navigating the USD/JPY price action during this period.
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BTCUSD Major Sell NOW!Simple trading - Heads and shoulder
BTCUSD is dropping below the 1hr heads and shoulder pattern.
2 things will play out here,
1. BTC will continue to drop to target @60k or retest the previous resistance @62k then drop to the 60k level.
2. BTC will reject the head and shoulders pattern and regain bullish strength back up to 64k
**If BTC fails to remain above 60k price may fall to to 57k (daily support)
US Dollar Four Day OutlookIt's always important to look the US Dollar when determining the outlook for Bitcoin. Remember, when the US Dollar rises, Bitcoin does the opposite, which is why the price of BTC is experience in the red.
However, looking at the US Dollar Chart, the DXY is oversold on the Relative Strength Index. This is a bullish momentum for Bitcoin, as the US Dollar can experience a pullback for the next four days.
We need to wait confirmation on the MACD on the four hour timeframe.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
🇺🇸 President Joe Biden’s Bearish Remarks on the USD vs. CNY 🇨
Ladies and gentlemen, my fellow Americans, and all you Zoomers out there, gather 'round! Uncle Joe’s got some thoughts about our greenbacks and those sneaky Chinese Yuan. Buckle up, because we’re diving into the financial rabbit hole. 🐇
1. “The Dollar’s Got Swagger”
You know, folks, the U.S. dollar has been strutting its stuff for centuries. It’s like that cool kid in high school who always had the latest sneakers and a killer mixtape. Well, guess what? The dollar’s still got swagger. 💸
2. “Yuan? More Like Yawn!”
Now, let’s talk about the Chinese Yuan. Sure, it’s got pandas on its bills, but pandas don’t pay the rent, my friends. The Yuan’s like that kid who shows up to the party with a veggie platter. Nice try, but we’re here for the pizza. 🍕
3. “Quantitative Easing? Nah, We’re on a Diet!”
Our Federal Reserve’s been flexing its muscles, printing money like it’s going out of style. But guess what? We’re not on a doughnut binge. We’re on a financial diet. No more QE buffets. 🍩
4. “Trade Wars? More Like Pillow Fights!”
China and the U.S. have been duking it out in trade wars. But honestly, it’s like watching two toddlers in superhero costumes pillow-fighting. Cute, but not exactly world-changing. 🛌
5. “0.11 CNY/USD? That’s a Bargain!”
So, rumor has it the yuan’s gonna dump to 0.11 CNY/USD. Well, let me tell you, that’s practically a yard sale price. Sell one, get one free! 🛒
6. “Zoomers, HODL Your Avocado Toast!”
To my Zoomer pals: Forget avocado toast for a sec. HODL those dollars like they’re vintage Pokémon cards. Trust me, when the Yuan’s doing the cha-cha, you’ll thank me. 🥑💰
7. “Crypto? Nah, I Prefer Monopoly Money!”
And don’t get me started on crypto. It’s like playing Monopoly with invisible cash. Pass Go, collect Bitcoin. But give me that real green paper any day. 💵
In conclusion, my fellow Americans, let’s keep our eyes on the prize. The dollar’s been through wars, recessions, and disco fever. It ain’t backing down. As for the Yuan, well, pandas are cute, but they won’t save your retirement fund. Stay woke, stay dollar-wise, and remember: In Joe we trust (and a little bit of Ben Franklin). 🇺🇸💪
Disclaimer: This post is purely fictional and for entertainment purposes. No actual financial advice here, folks. Consult your financial advisor, not Uncle Joe. 🎩🤝
DXY MELTDOWNThe enduring downward trajectory of the USD appears poised to persist in the coming years and even decades. With a staggering $33 trillion debt load that seems insurmountable, coupled with dwindling confidence from international partners who are divesting from the USD, the currency faces significant headwinds. The inevitable repatriation of these dollars to the Federal Reserve, the United States' central bank, exacerbates the downward pressure.
Forecasts indicate that the DXY, reflective of this trend, is likely to dip below $100 and remain there for an extended period. Our analysis underscores this outlook not only for the DXY but also for the USD's performance against other major currencies and assets.
Will The Gold Retest To 1980$ After The Attack in the Red Sea ?The Houthis say they are targeting ships which are Israeli-owned, flagged or operated , or which are heading to Israeli ports. However, many have no connections with Israel.
US-led naval forces thwarted many of the attacks.
Major shipping companies have stopped using the Red Sea - through which almost 15% of global seaborne trade usually passes - and are using a much longer route around southern Africa instead.
Gold to 2300$ ? ( XAUUSD Next Move ) After all analysis I have made and 2022-2023 events , the yellow metal TVC:GOLD breaks his highest resistance ever , this week as expected due to the bearish divergence . OANDA:XAUUSD have corrected to his new highest support , so I took long trades from 1982$ zone and my first target is 2120$ , then others are 2300$ . Let's catch up on high traders ;)) !!
Gold Next Move ? (XAUUSD)Investors in Asia, meanwhile, took comments from erstwhile Federal Reserve hawk Christopher Waller as perhaps a signal of another era-shift, as he flagged that U.S. interest rates could be cut in the months ahead.
A rally in bonds and slide in the dollar that has run for weeks in the afterglow of a benign U.S. inflation report extended in Asia in the wake of Waller's remarks.
Two-year Treasury yields fell to a four-month low just below 4.70%. Ten-year Treasury yields hit a two-month low of 4.28%.
Interest rate futures price more than 100 basis points of cuts next year and a 40% chance they begin as soon a March.
The dollar's slide led to multi-month highs for the yen, euro, sterling and Swiss franc against the greenback and sent spot gold, in dollars, to its highest since May.
DXY - (very!) Long; Welcome to the "new" American Century!Globalization is dead.
The fat lady has sang, the dirt is piled high next to the hole in the ground, obituaries read, notices had been long mailed to all the parties concerned. All there is left to do now is to show up at the funeral - provided you are not too busy starving or freezing to death, or otherwise engaged with similarly pressing diversions.
This IS the end of the world, as far as those currently alive came to know it.
How could one tell? ... By simply doing the math - while reflecting on the known laws of physics.
The following is more of a brief recap, rather than short term trading advise. Nevertheless, if in doubt, this is a USD Long call, the size of Montana!
1) "Things" are 10-30 times cheaper to "float" (energy-/cost-wise) than any possible form of land transport.
E.g. if you are Germany (the EU) or China, and are fully dependent on external food and energy sources, and have zero (0) effective long-range navy to protect any essential shipping lines ... Digg up your heirloom calendars from the previous century because they will come very handy, once again. (Not to mention that purchasing a new calendar will not be within your means.) That quintessential and necessarily socialist - arguably fascist - EU slant will make matters even worse, if that'd be any way possible. [France is the only likely winner in Europe, or rather in this case, the lone escapee. That nation's healthy pessimism - the deepest in the world, according to surveys - is also likely to be a notable plus, right about now.]
2) The "Green (renewable) Revolution" is a fantasy - Including the "EV Revolution"
Yes, lithium is light and plenty BUT it is also one of the least energy dense metals in the periodic table of elements. (I.e. it can't move "things"! - By itself, it'd be like pissing in the wind.) One needs to mix it with "something" - like Cadmium, the ONLY source of which is literarily one of the most remote places on earth, in the Democratic Republic of ____ ___, which is neither democratic nor a republic - nor a state or a country.
E.g. No on demand availability = No renewable energy. Not to mention the energy costs - like aluminium, etc. - just in the production of the necessary infrastructure.
In short, no technology exists, at present, which would have a chance to make the whole idea viable, by any tangible means, measure, or foresight.
3) China - is "dead".
It is already in the process of passing that proverbial water buffalo which the Chinese Dragon has swallowed a little ways back and as of this year (2023) it is in a full fledged, unmitigated demographic collapse. Ain't no fixin' that, ya'll!
To make things even more inconvenient, China has the longest (food + energy) supply lines, possible on this planet. (Some of those even longer than the other side of the world .) Count on a - once again - rural China with 800 million subsistence gardeners by 2035, starting now!
4) Russia
That 1/6th of dry land on this globe has got everything! Except all the good stuff is well over a 1000 miles inland - and still in the ground! -, not to mention all of it being totally land locked. (Refer to "1") E.g. Potential issues with reliance on Russian supply lines has similar connotations to the overpopulation issue on Mars.
5) Africa
For real? ... Not!
6) South America
They have everything , pretty much. Just as most of it is also land-locked. But since that whole chunk of the planet is squarely in the N. American zone of interests, simply chuck it up as an integral part of NAFTA.
... leaving only one, single country /block that posses ample domestic food and energy resources, combined with incomparable industrial and military strength and reach, not to mention a sufficiently large internal market, including a (still) favorable demographic - that is also optimally dispersed -, to do as it pleases, as long as it pleases, to/for whom it pleases: "Fortress America".
US100 - NASDAQ INDEXNASDAQ (US100) - The market has made a corrective move upwards in an ABC form. The larger trend correction can be termed as WXY with Y likely to end near the previous low (10,440), or possibly lower.
The last high of 15930 needs to hold with price making lower lows from here onwards.
This idea is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. Manage any trade/Investment with your own risk management.
Important market price Dollar IndexThe Bullish Channel is continuously gaining strength from a strong pullback from the 99.581 zone after a support breakout. Now at the current level, the US Dollar Index at 102.894 is a very important level and a resistance level in H4.
As per the channel, the US Dollar will fall to 102.440 to give respect to its Demand zone.
With the channel formed and the major zone marked, the dollar is gaining strength day by day and will touch the 104.500 zone.
As per the gold and major pairs, they will shortly show some bullish movement with short wave corrections in the US dollar price, but the us dollar will be in a bullish trend.
Fundamental market movements will also have a positive impact on the dollar.
The Key zone in US dollar from short reversal;
1- 102.894
2- 103.443
3- 103.714
Mark the US Dollar Index chart, and you will get some good pips in Gold and major currency pairs for short-term bullish movement.
Note: Keep an eye on the US Dollar Economic Currency calendar for better understanding.
Bearish Gold WEEK ?Gold took a hit this week as the dollar rebounded after the Bank of England raised interest rates by half a percentage point — twice more than forecast — saying it needed to act against "significant" indicators that British inflation would take longer to fall. U.K.’s main interest rate is now at 5%, the highest since 2008 after the largest rate increase since February. For me the gold metal will go a little bit down . Wha do you think traders , Am I right ?
USDJPY LONG & SHORT SETUP - US NEWSDuring the European session, the US/JPY pair remains stagnant, trading within a limited range just below the significant resistance level of 140.00. The market is characterized by volatile fluctuations as investors adopt a cautious approach in anticipation of the upcoming release of US inflation data.
In London, S&P500 futures have gained as investors hope the Fed will delay interest rate hikes and weaken the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index reached a two-week low at 103.21 due to expectations of a neutral interest rate policy and softening US inflation. Analysts predict May's CPI will remain unchanged, but core inflation will stay strong. The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its interest rate policy, aiming for inflation above 2%.
Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
NASDAQ BUYS TO THE MOONThe weekly and daily timeframe is showing a bullish trend, and remember the idea of the CADCHF setup I posted, this is what was expected to happen there.
What do we expect here? A retest to 12000 SUPPORT zone and a bullish move to 13720. This is a long term buy for NASDAQ.
Please do share, and give a follow to support.
OIL STILL TO REDUCE PRICE TO LAST YEAR'S LOWWhy this?
Price is approaching a high resistance zone and might surpass February's high, then move to the yearly highs of 82.50 giving a false bullish move and then sell more.
We can also spot the continuation pattern that shows price agreement tothe downside.
Where am I expecting price to sell to?
Well the lows of 2022 which is 70.00.
Please do share, and give a follow to support.
DXY up for now. Powell says so…Headlines today: Fed Chair Powell says interest rates are ‘likely to be higher’ than previously anticipated.
DXY was at a solid resistance cooled off for a bit under it, and it just broke that resistance to the upside.
If interest rates need to continue to be raised we would expect more upside in the DXY.
Rate hikes continue as expected -> DXY will follow traditional technical analysis as expected.
I used the measure rule to calculate possible target for descending channel upward breakout.
It aligns perfectly with a diagonal supply line going back months. Would be poetic to see PA reject at the diagonal and horizontal resistances, which exactly align with the measured move from the descending channel.
(see the vertical white line, the width of the channel)
WTI-Oil 5TH MARIs Sunday again with starting our analysis off with WTI oil.
For us it's a pretty simple setup this week. We're looking for a play off of the supply at the high of our swing, we're looking for price to drop down lower towards the 15 minute demand that we have highlighted below.
Now of course, if we don't get a reaction at this supply. We will look for price to travel back down to buy up into the triple top we have on the daily time frame.
Make sure that you always use your confirmations to get into a trade and always be flexible with your analysis. Remember, sticking to your trading plan and consistently entering the same setups will bring you profitability.
If you like this idea, drop us a boost and a comment down below.
We hope you all have a profitable and successful trading week.