USDCAD: Trading Plan and Forecast
descending triangle formation on usdcad .
the market has stopped setting new higher highs and shown a row of lower highs instead
in confluence with clear rsi divergence.
our bias remains bearish and on focus is the horizontal support of a triangle.
breaking below the support, market will confirm bearish sentiment of its participants
and we can short the pair.
target levels will be 1.32 and 1.315
stop will be above the last lower high within a triangle
*Please, if you like my analysis, support this idea liking it and leaving a comment, thank you!:)
US-DOLLAR
USDCAD: Trading Plan
descending triangle formation on usdcad.
the market has stopped setting new higher highs and shown a row of lower highs instead
in confluence with clear rsi divergence.
our bias remains bearish and on focus is the horizontal support of a triangle.
breaking below the support, market will confirm bearish sentiment of its participants
and we can short the pair.
target levels will be 1.32 and 1.315
stop will be above the last lower high within a triangle
*Please, if you like my analysis, support this idea liking it and leaving a comment, thank you!:)
USDCAD: Short Trade With Confirmation
USDCAD: Short Trade With Confirmation
very peculiar trading setup on USDCAD .
on 4H the market has recently touched a falling resistance of a descending triangle
and we see a row of multiple rejections.
on 1H we see a double top formation and for confirmation, we only need to wait for
a bearish violation of minor support beneath it to short the pair.
T1 - 1.325
T2 - 1.324
USDJPY POTENTIAL LONG OPPORTUNITY (4H CHART) USDJPY POTENTIAL LONG
WHEN DOING MY ANALYSIS FOR THIS WEEK AND WATCHING WHAT THE GLOBAL CURRENCIES WERE DOING I HAD SPOTTED THAT USDJPY IS AT A SIGNIFICANT LEVEL OF SUPPORT ON THE DAILY AND WEEKLY TIMEFRAME, WITH RECENT SIGNS OF BUYER INTEREST ON THE 4H CHART. IF YOU TAKE A LOOK YOU CAN SEE THAT PRICE HAS BEEN STOPPED AT THIS LEVEL OF STRUCTURE AND SAW A SIGNIFICANT BUYER PUSH TO THE UPSIDE ON THE 4H, MAKING A 100% REST FROM THE SELLERS. BY WHAT THE MARKET IS DISPLAYING TO ME BASED ON MOMENTUM ITS SHOWING ME THAT THE BUYERS ARE STARTING TO FIND INTEREST AT THIS PREVIOUS EMOTIONAL LEVEL OF SUPPORT. IT'S CRAZY BUT THE MORE YOU READ THE MARKETS AND HAVE EXPERIENCE WATCHING THE CONSISTENT PATTERS THEY HAVE YOU CAN START TO SPOT THE AREAS THAT THE "TIDE MAY TURN". KEEP AN EYE ON THIS CHART FOR A CONTINUE BUYER INTEREST IN THIS PAIR. THIS GIVES US A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF A PROFITABLE POSITION DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE MARKET ALWAYS TELLS US WHAT IT WANTS TO DO NEXT. IT'S CALLED (MOMENTUM) !! KEEP AN EYE OUT AND LOOK FOR EITHER SMALL RE-TEST CONTINUED TO THE DOWNSIDE WITH WEAK SELLER POWER OR JUST A STRAIGHT PUSH TO THE TARGETS.
CHEERS! PLEASE LIKE AND FOLLOW MY PAGE FOR MORE PROFITABLE TRADE SETUPS!
**REMEMBER TO ALWAYS USE YOUR OWN LEVEL OF RISK BASED ON WHAT YOU YOURSELF OR A FINANCIAL ADVISER HAS RECOMMENDED. NOT A PROFESSIONAL ANALYST JUST A MAN THAT HAS BEEN TRADING FX FOR 7 YEARS. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK**
GOLD Inversre Head and Shoulders Target MetHello Traders, '
Today's chart will be an update on GOLD (US$/OZ) based on previous chart posted on 06/21/2019 ( Feel free to have a look!)
Points to consider here
- Inverse Head and Shoulders Valid
- Price broke multi year long resistance zone, now turned potential support
- Price has reached calculated target of this inverse head and shoulders ( Blue vertical line)
We have some noticeable bearish signs in recent developments after this breakout
- potential bearish divergence as the RSI puts in consecutive lower highs as price tries to put in higher highs
- Stoch looks like its topping out indicating potential downwards momentum
- The inverse head and shoulder's setup has psychologically ended as price is now in discovery mode
The probabilities for GOLD to correct is more favorable as the pattern has now completed, this is looking to be the local top as the RSI is showing a very clear bearish divergence. The Fibonacci retrancement shows potential price targets, the golden Fibonacci line (.618 - $1369.04) is sitting very close to the now new support in the macro structure. GOLD could with a high probability retrace to the .618 area and retest the previous resistance now turned support...
What are your thoughts? please leave a like and comment
and remember,
Letting losses run is the most serious mistake made by most investors - William O’Neil
Dollar Index Technical Analysis
dollar index is currently coiling within a rising parallel channel.
be focused on 98.2 structure resistance level.
there is a very high chance to see a bearish reaction on this level.
if bears break and close below the channel,
we can expect bearish continuation to 97.5 and 97.0 levels
USDCHF Trading Plan: Decision Zone
USDCHF is currently trading in a wide trading range between two significant structure levels.
The breakout will determine the market future direction.
Our plan is to wait for a candle close above/below the structure level,
then we can take action accordingly.
Target levels:
Resistance - 0.99
Support - 0.96
DXY LONG TERM Possible 20-35% move up comingDXY breaking out of possible 3-4 yr bull flag, we take out the 2015-16 highs look to top of RED channel 108.85 range breaks that channel then upper level to 2002 highs is possible 121. Over that well then for insanity 160? yeah I know nuts. But DXY USDollar "cleanest" dirtiest shirt syndrome. I'm looking for the demise of the EURO, look to BREXIT, Italian Banks, DB - Deutsche Bank, Elections in Germany, Greece, too many possible holes in the boat.. if they show up. DXY last push as it looses it's Reserve Currency status.. a nice ballon top? Anyhow, something to think about something to watch. DXY goes, gold will get hit very hard. I have long term charts on gold looking for .. I know .. sounds nuts.. but $750 to $450 an oz in USdollars, other currencies no. fwiw.
USDCHF- 1 year uptrend - Opportunity to enterTrend:
Based on the chart we see that the recent lows in usdchf gives me an opportunity to enter in regards to the pair. A monthly range of 100- 200 pips can be established within the range of the pair.
Fundamental factors;
Due to trade wars, Most people are still in USD compare to riskier assets. For me, I see the sell off as an opportunity to enter and stay for a while instead of trading unpredictable trends.
You may also consider positive rollover rates which makes your transaction cost next to 0.
Adding all up.
Currently the odds for me are still in favor in buying USD rather than adding postion in risker assets such as EUR, GBP etc. Just make sure that your stop loss will be bigger due to market volatility .
What am I waiting for this week?
Thurs: Core Durable Goods orders
ECB press conference
If you my trades are helpful, comment below and add your opinion towards the pairs . Share your thoughts :)
Why Supply and Demand Works (US Dollar Index DXY example)The real reason why supply and demand works.
For the US dollar index its not hard to read there was a massive drop from the big red candle (creating a supply area) and it is now making its way up to the initial price drop area. Based on Elliott wave pull back method we can foresee the 5 waves almost being played out except that we will still have to wait for no higher high and V formation before taking the sell. But have you ever wonder why the sell will work? If you are so confident that your trade is going to work, it WILL work.
When I was a high school student at age of 16 I opened up my first business selling GPS units. I branded my GPS as "Stevu", dreaming one day I might be competing with New Zealand's GPS tycoon Navman. At first there was only myself selling GPS, I could sell it for $300 NZ dollar per unit. However, soon I realised that other people start selling GPS as well. For $300 NZ dollar per unit no one would buy from me anymore. The person next door would sell it for $250, if I still want my business running I would then have to reduce it to $200. Not long after my new price I noticed that 10 more people start selling it and they've set their new price to $60 per unit. Given that it cost me to buy each unit (including shipping) $55, there is no way I could make money anymore. So my first business got shut down and I had to work for KFC to cook chicken for two years.
The same logic and concept apply to Forex, Stock, Commodities. Everything in our life is related with supply and demand, including every single business. Currency is a essentially a product. When a product is in demand, the price rises, if the same product is over supplied, the price will drop.
The big bearish red candle is revealed to us as "the market has over supply of US dollar, there is way more sellers than buyers". In order for the sellers to sell product they will have to reset competitive prices for buyer to buy US dollar. These sellers in real life are considered as "Goldman, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, other investment banks and even hedge funds".
These banks would put say for instance one billion worth of sell limit orders at the price of 97.44. But there aren't enough buyers to digest them all at once, only 1/3 of the entire orders would create a massive unbalance of buying and selling forces. the price then drops as indicated on chart.
When the price climb its way back to similar level (around 97.44), we all agree that there are still 2/3 orders being placed at 97.44, which is why every time the price reach 97.44 it bounces back (not a single pipe more). This is a good indication that this supply area is very robust. If you are going to do the sell, do you all agree that it would be much safer to sell with these investment banks (institutions)? Of course the answer is yes.
But before that We must accept that there must be a V formation to take out the buyers, in this chart it is revealed as the pink area. On the contrary there is also buying orders being set at such price. You will HAVE TO wait patiently until these orders gets consumed before taking the sell.
I hope these explains the whole logic. If you have questions or doubt please feel free to leave any comment.
Good Luck
Steven
XAUUSD bullish Technical. Still bearish on fundamentalGold goes up by 170 pips last night because of Powell stated that they might cut rates this year. This statement slides USD down and the investors switch to Gold and Yen as a Safe Haven. However, the overall bias is still fundamental and it is still out of the trendline, plus Gold might fall so hard as well because of the win streak, and I expect some slippage this week or next week.
Gold is still a beast pair, please manage your risk very well.
USDCAD I BUY I TECHNICAL ANALYSISHuge surge on the price of the instrument during the last couple of days causing resistance to be broken. Currently, the price has been identified as being in a flag pattern with an impulsive move to either the upside or the downside being expected. This is a long bias, so if the trade was to be taken a stop below the resistance would be ideal. This trade is currently being taken by me.
Take profit has been identified based on the impulsive move as well the direction of the price if the support is broken with an impulsive move to the downside.
Good luck to traders, lets take in Profits.
TP - 134.79
SL - 133.70
GOLD MIGHT TURN BEARISH IF IT BREAKS 1335 PRICEGold continues to climb up yesterday, reaching the 1359 mark. However, when the fundamentals come in, it straightly goes down by almost 110 pips. You can lock down your profits here or possible hedge at this point but you need to watch the prices between 1338 to 1330 because once it broke down it would be a bearish scenario for the XAUUSD