EUR USD bears continueBears are strong with this pairing, we can see further downside movement as far as 1.13075 support level, price bounced off key resistance at 1.14039 and is ready to sink.
We could see some support at 1.13470 that has been used as support and resistance before, but this should only be a slight pullback which will provide good opportunities to add sell positions.
Remember only use our analysis if it lines up with your own analysis, and always use correct risk management.
US-DOLLAR
EUR/USD forecastLet’s talk a bit about USD. December job report has been strong with the US economy adding the most jobs since February. However, an increase in average hourly earnings won’t be enough to keep the dollar strong this year. Yes, over the short-term, we will see a rally in USD, but over a long-term dollar will dive.
We expect 2 rate hikes this year. In recent speech Powell said all need to be prepared for flexible policy. This message brought worries into the markets. I don’t think investors trust much Powell and Fed. And should they?
Greatest periods of economic growth were till Fed was established. What happened after? – Well, 10 recessions, few bubbles, Great Depression… Thomas Edison and Henry Ford warned us about this useless and dangerous system.
I am not a Fed hater and I don’t think Fed as institution is a problem. Most important is how it’s managed, its policy and how transparent it is. Fed is trying to do all to keep you (and your money) away from gold and other markets. All they want is to sell their debt notes. Yes, Fed is a huge debt machine. The result will be terrible. I believe the debt bubble will be reason of the next financial crisis. I know many people trade crypto. But I don’t think it has a future. Central banks could make electronic central bank money many years ago. But they didn’t, because they don’t need it. There is no place for crypto in the central banks system. Sooner or later blockchain will be killed, as it happened with Esperanto. To be honest crypto is the 21 century version of tulipomania – don’t spend your money and time on it. Trade and invest into real assets ans it’s derivatives.
A few weeks before the finicial crisis Bernanke kept repeating how strong is US economy and no drop of real estate prices will happen, having clear understanding world economy was in danger. What did they do to prevent it? – Nothing. Were they so stupid to fail? – No, they just didn’t care. $ 6 trillions were given out to support banks. Isn’t that funny? – Banks created 2008 crisis playing Mortgage CDO. Always, taxpayers pay for the crisis, not banks or Fed. Think about it, maybe Henry Ford was right and we have to change the system? But let’s come back to making money and see EUR/USD chart.
Based on Fibo levels, I expect 1.1425 should be tested So, watch this range and go short if it gets rejected with same sl above daily resistance. Wave 3 should send this pair to 1.11650 and final wave to our target 1.11200. This range should be reversal point and big buying opportunity for long term traders.
USDRUB - Bullish OpportunityUSDRUB. We have a symetrical triangle pattern above the 4H 200 EMA.
If it holds, then we'll see the current resistance break and a move up higher happen.
You'll have to put your SL below the 4H 200 EMA with just a little space to it in case of spread volatility since its an exotic pair.
Happy trading.
YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SAY THAT WE DIDN'T WARNED YOU!!At the time of publishing this report gold is trading at around $1234 while white metal is trading at $14.45-Please note-Our three positions are active in gold and silver
yesterday we have witnessed moderate rally in gold and silver prices to reach almost there monthly highs as world stock market, Asian market and U.S Stock market had a major sell-off, hence safe heaven metals acted as they should be and we saw a decent rally in their prices but the question is will this rally continue or it's just trying to lure you and making you fool again?
we believe the latter is more accurate and we can confidently say this with our more than 11 years of experience without being overconfident or being attached to our existing positions-
U.S Treasury yields are also failing which concerns traders and investors as it shows the slow economic growth in U.S.Greenback has also found it's support and on the rise now after falling very sharply yesterday while crude oil prices are near steady and trading at around $53.one news which is more interesting which came out that One of the most influential Federal Reserve policymakers said on Tuesday that he expects further interest rate hikes continuing next year since the U.S. economy is "in really good shape," Beside that the U.S-China trade which drove the precious metal sector from months doesn't seem to over very soon as most of the analyst paid (including us)very close attention to the G20 meeting in which U.S president and China president met face to face-However market is filled with uncertainty and doubts and there are enough reasons to do this
- According to Bloomberg, “The U.S. and China emphasized different results from Sunday’s high-stakes meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, with the split highlighting how much of a gap needs to be overcome over the next three months.”
market is very concerned that this 90-day truce is a very short time frame to resolve this major dispute between the two countries and on top of that officials from both counties have been caught giving different statement altogether-however trump has already said that if they will not be able to find some solution this 90 day truce he will increase the tariff more-all the factors sucked are very bearish for the precious metal sector
Technicals-Our Three position in gold and silver are active, however, we believe buyers should be very cautious at this point as we believe 1200 level will be easily broken and there is not much support until 1180 which is very weak. Gold -0.73% -0.07% -0.37% 0.17% 0.69% likely will not be able to support around its psychological level if the U.S Dollar keeps rising and there are numerous factors which are suggesting the future dollar strength-
Planning a short on the US Dollar vs Israeli ShekelI have been looking at this for a week or so and it is getting close to short area. You can see the trendline I have at the top there. Have an alert set on that, once it crosses that price it is in extended area, will look for it to turn there and pull back. Long term this will head to 4.
Can be played with BTC and massive margin @ bit.ly
........
........
DXY 96 Dxy INDEX:DXY will probably go down to 96 at the end of the year.
People will be taking profits at the end of the year.
US Job reports is on the (+) side (at the time of this writing)
10 year bond is on the (+) side (at the time of this writing)
Inflation will probably go up a bit
Then we have an upcoming increase in interest rates
First quarter next year, the dollar will probably go up 96.5 or somewhere in that range.
Unless of course a political turmoil happens..
GBP/USD PART 1: Weekly view, longer term, short then longThis is the first half of my GBP/USD analysis.
On the weekly chart, we have some low crouching above the weekly support block, still within the optimal fib retrace zone.
The red level is an important weekly support/resistance level.
I think when we finally take out those lows, we'll have enough of a bounce to attack the previous highs.
We have 2 plays possible right now:
#1 - Short to the weekly block, which is acceptable since it's a higher time frame, this move will be around 350 pips which is great
#2 - Long from the weekly block with a target of previous highs. If we get a nice bounce from the block initially it should confirm our bias.
Next half of this analysis will go on the lower time frame for that SHORT setup.
SHORT TERM TARGETS REACHEDQUICK NOTE-This post is a quick notification to let you know that today's quite share move lower in PMs helped us to pull out our short term position in gold and silver,In other words take profit hit for gold and silver in short term position,However our long term position are still active and we do beleive that our profit in long term position is likely to change from being huge to being enormous
USD/CAD two possibilitiesIf it breaks above the trend line B then I will go long - however if it breaks below trend line A then I will go short.
Losses can exceed initial deposits when trading market instruments. You can manage your losses by using smart risk management. Identify what your entry, Take Profit and Stop Loss levels will be before you enter a trade. Stick to your trading plan, no matter the market conditions.
ONE MINUTE SILENCE FOR THOSE WHO THINK 1200 LEVEL CAN HOLDOur yesterday comments
Having expertise of trading precious metals from more than 11 years gives you immense knowledge about the market,on the basis of current market scenario we know one thing which is very certain,whenever fear enters the market, gold -0.76% , and silver -0.14% or PMs makes incredible rally-we have seen this market behavior over and over again in our trading carrier but what happened this time? If this is THE SELL-OFF OR THE BIGGEST EQUITY CRASH WE NEVER SAW IN OUR LIFE WHICH REPUTATED MEDIA OUTLETS ARE REFERRING TO THEN WHY GOLD -0.76% AND SILVER -0.14% IS BEHAVING WEIRD THIS TIME?
Remember if investors were really fearful due to the recent downside price action which we witnessed in equities then price of gold -0.76% and silver -0.14% (PMs) should have skyrocketed till now
we have written this two days ago that we think the move which we are witnessing is purely price and technical based and not even close to a fear-based move. In other words, our advanced 1.50% price analysis suggesting that this small correction soon coming to the end and a major sell-off in PMs will start again.
we are certainly aware that the biggest market collapse is not too far that's why we believe 2019-2020 could give you your lifetime chance to accumulate substantial wealth by investing in precious metals but we certainly don't think this THE SELL OFF we are waiting for
The upcoming move in PM sector seems to be extremely bullish but before that happens it's very critical to understand that gold -0.76% -0.34% 0.07% and silver -0.14% -1.15% -0.20% didn't reach their potential bottom yet, those who will miss it will regret it for coming months and years so I hope you guys have positioned yourself and risked enough from which you'll be able to generate substantial profits
PLEASE NOTE-Silver(the Bigger part of my portfolio is dedicated to my silver -0.14% investment and we are going to allocate approx 20kUSD when PMs will reach its bottom in near future, However, we will keep you informed
OUR 4 TRADING POSITIONS ARE ACTIVE
DXY: USD ready to fall?I rarely trade directly against a strong and intact trend, so consider this "hesitant advice" rather than anything concrete.
The DXY measures USD strength against a basket of currencies and weightings, and is closely watched by every serious market analyst. Therefore, looking at it directly for technical patterns and signals provides a trader with "what if" scenarios that can be applied to pair markets. E.g. if EUR/USD and DXY have matching signals, then that's a certain degree of confirmation to your idea. Note that this isn't the best example as EUR/USD is the biggest chunk of the DXY calculation.
Anyway, moving on...
DXY as at 31 October 2018 is sitting at a make or break level for the USD. It's been on a bull run since April, but has steadily been losing momentum over the last few months. Now, you should have been a USD bull in the absence of any contrary signals, and until today we haven't had any strong bearish confluence. But with DXY sitting at a strong weekly resistance level (indicator is of my own making - I'll provide screenshots below), with clear decreasing momentum (measured both by an indicator and swing angles), and a double top that has formed on the Daily/Weekly charts, we now have a trifecta of bearish signals that should give us, at the very least, a strong pause.
I'm not advocating that you suddenly rush out and long every XXX/USD pair you can find, as markets are chaotic and no analysis is worth a cent until you get confirmation. So, for me, confirmation is going to be a strong WEEKLY rejection from 97 on the DXY - at which point I'll tentatively start shorting the dollar.
Trade safe. Risk management is everything.
Cheers,
DD
>>>US DOLLAR BREAKOUT<<< - Wave 3 The Strongest Wave!If you have been following my previous charts you will know that I have been waiting for the Euro to decline in Wave 3 which inversely means USD will rally hard in wave 3, well it is time!
Euro will follow shortly and Gold has topped its minute wave 2, if you haven't seen my related idea please see below.
This breakout above the previous high is confirmation that we should expect to see a pretty big move erupt in the coming days, weeks and months.
I will be providing updates and wave counts along the way so please hit follow to get new charts as they come out.