US-DOLLAR
USD/RUB 1H Chart: New short term pattern spottedThe US Dollar reached the previously set target at the 64.15 mark against the Russian Ruble. After reaching the target the currency exchange rate bounced off the resistance provided by the upper trend line of a medium term ascending channel pattern. The trend line was also strengthened by a pivot point level.
In the aftermath of the bounce off the rate has declined steadily while being supported only by the hourly simple moving averages, which have managed to pause the decline only for short periods of time.
Meanwhile, Dukascopy analysts spotted on Monday that the decline is occurring in a short term descending channel pattern.
USD to fall across the board ?The Basket is looking quite full with lots of eggs in it. Are you short on the $...
DXYAt this point I am expecting the dollar to be in a wave 4 correction to make a short wave 5. Watch the 93.00-92.75 quarters level for the larger pull up, yet still corrective. As far as when to buy or when to sell, I want to see a little bit more form it pattern wise on the smaller time frames. I will post some setups. Hopefully you can see the correlation between pairs. That is the 800 ma above, 200 ma below. The 50% fib retracement is the line u see above.
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Pair returns to senior channelStrong upside momentum has driven the USD/NOK exchange rate since late March. The pair had appreciated 8.60% until it peaked near the 8.32 mark on Tuesday. It likewise breached the prevailing one-year channel on the same day. As a result, the US Dollar shot up to the 8.32 level and subsequently fell back to the breached senior channel.
During the past few weeks, the pair has been trading in a rising wedge pattern. It is expected that the pair remains trading in this pattern and thus edges lower within the following sessions. The pair is likely to find strong support at its bottom boundary which is reinforced by the weekly PP, the 200-hour SMA and the monthly R1 at 8.10.
Meanwhile, the pair’s overall direction within the following two weeks should be towards its ten-month high near 8.45.
NZD/USD daily reviewThe previous assumptions about the NZD/USD pair were false, as the rate surged in the second half of Wednesday only to be squeezed in between various hourly simple moving averages.
Meanwhile, our analysts did a full review of the pair. Long, medium and short term patterns were discovered.
Essentially the currency exchange rate was expected to continue to surge in the short term as soon as it passed the resistance of the 55 and 100– hour simple moving averages near the 0.6920 mark.
If that would occur, the most dominant trend line near 0.6950 would be targeted.
USD/TRY 4H Chart: Review after turbulenceThe USD/TRY pair has been mostly affected by the fundamentally economical, damaging reforms of the Turkish government. Moreover, recent events in the Turkish bond market have massively increased volatility.
However, rather incredibly the currency rates sudden decline began in consistency with the long term ascending channel pattern, which represents the surge of the recent months.
In accordance with the pattern, the US Dollar should decline against the Lira until it reaches the support of the channel. It could occur in any way, as the support can be touched by trading downwards, sideways or even going higher.
USD/CHF 4H Chart: Medium term declineThe US Dollar has been declining against the Swiss Franc in May. The decline began after the currency exchange rate met with the upper trend line of a dominant ascending channel up. Moreover, the reversal occurred just as the rate reached above the psychological 1.00 mark.
In the aftermath of the bounce off from the resistance, the currency exchange rate traded almost sideways. However, most recently the rate booked a point of reference, which provided the chance to mark a descending channel pattern.
The pattern is set to guide the rate to the lower trend line of the dominant channel. Although, that does not mean that the rate should be shorted, as the dominant support could be reached by trading sideways.
USD CAD SHORT4HR -Aheavy bullish trend with small rversal at the highest resistance zone
1hr- a bearish trend till its highest support zone which is corrected
15 min- a bullish trend till when the price ends
the 4 hr chart has consistent resistant zone at the price of 1.28799 hence my recommendation of a buy till the price of 1.28799
USDJPY rally into #NFPWe observe that, as expected, after correction the pair overcame the resistance level and became stronger. Now we have new levels.
At the moment, the dollar rally continues and the US dollar -0.14% has reached the maximum levels of the current year against the basket of major currencies.
Thus we assume the further upward movement of the pair after correction to the resistance level at the mark of 109.50.
Short USDCHF below 0.9850 with target 0.97123 - 0.96135 - 0.9515Short USDCHF below 0.9850 with target 0.97123 - 0.96135 - 0.9515
(Stop loss 0.9920. Alternative scenario: above 0.9850 look for further upside with 1.0000 & 1.0100 as targets)
Comment: If the resistance at 0.97123 is surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.96135 - 0.9515 remains high.
EURUSD (EURO) Big Picture: How Could This Possibly Happen???EURUSD (EURO) 042418 7:50 pm.
Hi trader friends, since this chart picture should replace a million words...
Either the EURUSD topped or it is in a lower degree 4th Wave triangle with only one more pop up to a top, then down for 4-18 months once the top is confirmed.
Whether its a triangle with one more high or the 5th Wave already top, is likely to be resolved this week.
I expect one more wave lower on the intra-day charts to touch the lower trend-line of what may be a triangle within 1-3 days.
Then, the EURUSD will likely bounce in a small corrective rally, meaning a huge down move is imminent.
Or, the bounce will have conviction and break the upper triangle resistance for one more impulse wave high, then tank into a Wave 2 low months or longer away.
After the Wave 2 low in likely 4-18 months from now, then somehow, the US Dollar will likely be in deep trouble as the EURUSD should have a substantial rally for several years, if this is correct..
DISCLOSURE:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Michael Mansfield CIO