US-DOLLAR
USDJPY - Possible next 24 hoursFollowing yesterdays chart and looking through the timeframes. It is possible that the USDJPY is running out of steam for now. There are many reasons here for a pull back:
RSI overbought on 4HR
1HR chart resisting further upsdide
Trump and his general behaviour
Upside rejection developing on daily chart
Approaching end of the month - Profit taking
6 days of straight gains without consolidation or pull back
This is potentially a good combination for a short scalp followed by a longer term long entry setup
USD/CAD extends gainsThe US Dollar has continued to gain even more ground against the Canadian Dollar. The reason for the surge is double sided.
Namely, the Greenback is surging due to political reasons in the news. Meanwhile, the Canadian macroeconomic data has revealed that the Canadian economy is doing a lot better than thought before. In addition, Bank of Canada has revealed its dovishness. That is set to make the Canadian Dollar weaker.
However, one can’t use technical charting properly during a time when the fundamentals are largely being introduced and dynamically change the situation. Although, Dukascopy Analysts doubt that this aspect will discourage retail traders.
AUD/USD approaches dominant support As the US Dollar has kept appreciating the AUD/USD is no exception to the phenomenon. On Monday it could be seen that the rate was going down in a junior, narrow descending pattern.
The pattern was set to guide the rate down to the 0.7620 level, where various support levels are located. Namely, a monthly and a weekly support levels are located at that level together with the lower trend line of a dominant long term pattern.
It was expected that the rate could reach the support level by the middle of Monday’s trading session in GMT time zone.
USD/CNH All signals point downwardsThe US Dollar’s movements against the Chinese one currency have not been mapped for some time, because some consider them rather boring. The bottom line about the pair is that the US Dollar is losing value against the Yuan.
However, the movements of various timeframes can be mapped in various scale patterns. Moreover, it can be observed that the currency exchange rate has a rather notable tendency to respect Fibonacci retracement lines.
In regards to the near term future, the pair is either set to trade sideways or decline. The reason for such assumption is the fact that the pair has fallen below a very strong resistance cluster, which is located from 6.28 to 6.29 levels.
USD/PLN 4H Chart: Occurring reboundThe US Dollar recently reached the lower trend line of a long term descending channel against the Polish currency. As a result the pair has already formed a short term ascending channel pattern.
However, the channel has met with fierce resistance in the form of the monthly S1 at the 3.3760 mark and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located just below it at the 3.3750 mark.
Due to that reason this isn’t a set up where one can simply enter. Instead a retail trader should look for the moment, when the mentioned resistance is finally passed. When that occurs, most likely a break out to the upside will occur.
EURUSD-TOUCHING SUPPORT FROM JAN 09' 2018EURUSD-TOUCHING SUPPORT FROM JAN 09' 2018. Bounce is a good possibility from over sold but weakness are shown in the market. I eill post a 30 min chart soon to see the internals.
USD/THB Breaks long term SMAsThere is something about the USD/THB pair that you can observe only by changing the time frames of the charts while having set up them to show the 200-period simple moving average.
Namely, the most important is the fact that the currency exchange rate has passed the 200-day SMA, which has kept the pair lower since the start of 2017. In addition, the four hour time frame 200-period simple moving average has recently been broken.
As a result of these moves in a combination with the passing of the weekly R1, the rate began a surge. The surge is set to be paused by a monthly pivot point at 31.30. However, above that there is almost nothing until 31.40.
USD/MXN Jumps to 18.50 markThe US Dollar recently gained massively against the Mexican Peso. That occurred mainly due to the political turmoil around the Mexican Presidential election, which caused a sudden fall in the value of the Peso.
However, the surge was stopped by a resistance line of a speculated ascending channel pattern at the 18.50 mark. Although, the psychological significance of this level might also have played a role.
Due to that reason a descent should be expected. However, the pair is set to face the support of the 200-period SMA and the monthly PP, respectively, at 18.41 and 18.45.
USD/CAD reveals medium patternThe previously expected decline in a narrow ranged pattern down to the 1.25 mark did not occur. The reason for that is the existence of a medium term descending pattern, which revealed itself during the last 24 hours.
The pattern drawn on Tuesday actually represented a move downwards in the borders of the medium term channel.
By the middle of Wednesday’s trading the USD/CAD was squeezed in between the support of the 55 and 100-hour SMAs and the medium scale pattern’s resistance line. This was due to the markets expecting the announcement of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate, which has been seen to cause swings in the range from 60 to 200 base points.
USD/SGD 4H Chart: Declines with large volatilityThe Greenback bounced of a large scale 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level against the Singapore Dollar at the start of April. As a result of the event a descending channel down pattern has formed.
The channel has already managed to pass two strong support clusters near the 1.3150 and the 1.3125 levels. Moreover, it doesn’t seem to face any additional support below it.
The only exception to that is the weekly S1 1.3082, which stands in the way of the Singapore Dollar’s surge.
Meanwhile, note that below the weekly S1 the historical low level of 1.3060 might provide support.
US Dollar Index Lower, Bounce Crash?Hi trader friends! The US Dollar Index rally from 2008 low to the December 2016 high is better counted as a long term upward retracement/correction in the 107 year bear market in the "Real Inflation Adjusted Value" of US Dollar. Why? Because much of the up move was corrective in nature, with many overlapping of the swing highs by the subsequent swing lows, except in the middle of the move *which is the only place this 8 year rally looked clean and impulsive. Therefore, until proven otherwise, I have to label the high in December, 2016. as a large "corrective" C wave top.
RISK: There is always the possibility that the many overlappy waves from the exact low in 2008, were a series of 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, then a high Wave 3, and this current low is a huge Wave 4. However, it doesn't fit a well, not make sence with the massive quantatiative easing the FED has done, which, should eventually be a problem for the USD The move down since the 2016 high was impulsive, without overlapping of swing lows by the swing highs within the impulsive trend waves down, so I am going with the wave count I have.
CONDITION: We should see one more low to finalize large Wave 1 down. This would be followed by a corrective ABC corrective Wave II rally (if much at all). Then, the USDX will likely get crushed again, if this analysis is correct. Let's hope that I am wrong this time or the bounce is far greater than I have projected.
I have yet to complete the cycle analysis on the Dollar, but the EURUSD cycles suggest that the bounce in the USDX after this upcoming Wave 1 low may not be as strong usual for this length of wave down.
Our MASIC indicator that Austin created is overbought and looking like it wants to roll over to the downside. Plus, the CR Williams indicator has not turned green for new buy area yet. This fits well with the idea of one more selloff to the Wave V low of bigger Wave 1 down.
You will see that inverse Elliott Wave count along with cycles on the soon to be released EURUSD chart, with cycles! I really hope I have these wrong. I will flip my analysis if I find that I am. Until then, you'd better make provision by August to December of 2018, the latest, if you live in the USA or your country's money is pegged to the dollar.
Happy trading!
Michael Mansfield CIO,
RISK DISCLOSURE:
PAST TRADE OR ANALYSIS PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING CAN BE VERY RISKY, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE GAINS AS WELL AS LARGE LOSSES.
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. This is not an offer to buy or sell a security, commodity, Forex , or crypto-token of any type. Whether you choose to trade based on our trading related posts, charts, videos and/or comments elsewhere, you trade at your own risk!
Bitcoin/USD (BTC/USD)Awesome Forecasting !
Please check my previous BTC Charts for more view!
Leave your idea !
Cheers.
Trump drops the dollarConsidering that our chart overcame the resistance level near the mark of 1.42 and was fixed above it, we expect further price advance up to local resistance levels.
Given some political tensions and factors associated with geopolitical factors, we observe a weakening of the reserve currency rate relative to the basket of major pairs.
Also, it is necessary to take into account the loud statements of the head of the White House. Donald Trump scolds the Assad regime in his Twitter, accuses his officials and declares import duties on China. Therefore, it is difficult to count on the stability of the greenback at the moment.
Therefore, occupy long positions in our pair and establish Take Profit near the resistance levels.
Wait for the breakout#USD is testing markets with formation of wage.
Wait for the breakout! Looking at the global economic stability and oil market, I expect to go long.
EURUSD Symmetrical Triangle - Watch for break outEUR USD consolidating nicely inside a symmetrical triangle - Watching for break out for trend confirmation
Eur/Usd holding for NOWThe Euro has changed from an uptrend to range bound in the short term. We may be seeing the end of the strong uptrend that the Euro has been in or a complex PB but I'm leaning towards the end. The Dollar is still on its hike cycle with three hikes predicted this year and should be strong but with all of the turnover in office and ongoing talks about Russia we have yet to see it in this pair. I'm inclined to believe Trump may be trying to stay in the headlines on purpose as he has made no attempt to hide the fact that he wants a weak dollar. Now with the last two rally's almost being identical at 302 pips and 288 pips respectfully, marked on the chart. Look for the Euro to continue back towards the trendline and supply area of 1.22.
As always do your own due diligence.
Keep Calm and Trade Forex.
BTC/USD Late March early April BOLD PREDICTION!If i'm reading the last DATA and whats happening now correctly! I believe we will see an upward trend in the next couple of weeks and break the last resistance it has set itself. This is just my BOLD PREDICTION and please feel free to comment your predictions own below.
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DXY LongThis week I believe that the US Dollar will go up to seek liquidity before coming down.
This will put pressure on other currencies. GBPUSD and EURUSD will go down beginning of this week and will end the week on the upside.
