What a pretty symmetrical triangle we have here. In current conditions, I would say that it is a bullish signal. A break followed by a close above the upper line of the triangle could trigger a rise to the next resistance. It would be difficult for the target to be hit, but we will see.
As always, I love price breakouts and using Fib levels to understand where the market should head to next. If we can see USDJPY break above this downward trendline, (which will then become support) and if we can see a little price action remaining above it, we should look at this continuation of the ABCD pattern. However, we have to be aware of this new downward...
***Why do you need to have an idea on the bigger picture*** I've seen quite some trade ideas between my last Aussie chart and now. Some calling longs, some calling to stay out.. I must admit, at times even I got a bit confused, but this chart has kept me on the right side of the trade. For example, the retracement to 0.93065 was picture perfect. (It was a high of...
I expect this market to either retrace to a lower sliding paralel and then make a nice rally up, or go up right from where it is now. Those new highs didn't make much progres to the upside, so it looks like it wanted to retrace deeper, before it makes any further advancements. ----------- Disclaimer: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex. I...
Have to make a confession. My last Aussie dollar post showed a 50% retracement stop loss in place. It was actually a mental stop loss, that by the time I checked on the Aussie, it had breached the stop level and then fallen below it again. Mental stops are probably not the most ideal thing to do. Back to the Aussie Dollar... still slowly grinding lower - but yet...
In my analysis, wave 1 began from 2001-4-2 to 2008-7-14.wave 3 began from 2008-10-27 to2011-7-25. Wave 2 is between wave 1 and wave 3. Wave 2 had fallen below 38.2% of wave 1. According alternation principle, I think wave 4 have completed its goal. Wave 4 has reached between 61.8% and 50% of wave 3. I deem wave 5 began at 2014-1-20 . According wave theory,...
We have a recent uptrend in EURUSD and currently seeing a natural retracement (pullback). If we can see some support at 1.3850 and the market climb back about the 1.3865 we could see a climb all the way to the 1.3915 level which is the 1.618 Extension on this current uptrend. However, if we see the market drop a little, we could see further decline, at least...
Hi, in terms of price action I see a possibility of a retrace down, at least to 1.6600. For further information about my trading style, live trading videos and analyses, subscribe to my YouTube Channel: bit.ly Petr YouTube Channel: bit.ly TWITTER: @FlexibleTrader E-MAIL: psuchanek@smbcap.com Blog: bit.ly
Fundamental - RBA indicates no immediate need to raise interest rates Economic data - Aussie CPI falls short, China PMI contracting Technical - AUDUSD breaks through 50SMA and heads toward 200SMA on 4HOUR chart Usually would take this pause as an opportunity to go Long, but with the recent Fundamentals and Data releases, probability favours the downside. Note:...
Nice Long setup here in AUDUSD. Now completing wave 4 of the main trend. Fib measurement of wave 1 projects a top for wave 5 at 0.981. Notice the top of wave 3 is exactly 2x wave 1 and wave 3 of 3 is 1.68 X wave 1.
There are lot of things happening on this chart, but for clarity, we'll focus on the smaller ones that are easy to miss from the big picture. 1. Notice the smaller divergence formed (RSI 67.88 - 66.19). This is our area of interest. 2. Horizontal range bound break out targets to 1.69250. So if you haven't bought GBPUSD as the breakout, then forget new long...
NZD/USD looks like it is rolling over. Price is not giving the clearest signal though. I'd like to see momentum pick up (very) soon i.e if price does't slide from here soon we might be in for a surprise to the upside. 20min and daily chart confirming this also. There is dollar strength but more importantly no clear broad dollar strength (yet?) - something to keep in mind.
Now it's just a debate: if the current up fork is going to hold or fail, as price has crossed it from its upper parallel to the lower one with ease. This market is in a very-long-term down trend, found resistance above 94 and then even below that level. Now it is about to say, whether it's going to stay within the fork or not. It can either turn into an overshoot...
SCENARIO #1: The price has nicely reacted to 1.3851-1.3864 zone, which is just around the 61.8 Fibonacci level of the previous downswing. These two levels define a zone for shorts, so look for any kind of weakness there to enter short. SCENARIO #2: If the current lower range boundary is breached and the price closes strongly below 1.3789, it would be time for...
The EURUSD seems to be forming a strong bearish divergence with both the MACD and the RSI. I believe this divergence will reverse after it reaches the 1.3965 - 1.4000 price range. Technicals are signaling further continuation to the upside after the bounce off the 38% retracement as well as a bounce off a new support lvl (1.3820 - 1.3780) which was previously was...
Quarterly CPI came out soft and Aussie declined across the board + China Flash PMI despite an increase from 48 to 48.3 was still seen as weak. In line with this chart, next support is likely to come in around 0.912 - 0.92 levels. 6 days for NFP data before the next big move. Also on the same day (02/05) Aussie PPI will be released as well. Note that on 01/05 we...
There are two basic levels for short trade considerations. We have lots of news today, so let us see, what the market offers today. For further information about my trading style, live trading videos and analyses, subscribe to my YouTube Channel: bit.ly Petr YouTube Channel: bit.ly TWITTER: @FlexibleTrader E-MAIL: psuchanek@smbcap.com Blog: bit.ly