USD/SGD in a descending channel until NovemberAlthough the US Dollar recently rebounded against the Singapore Dollar, the currency pair is still set to decline in the long term. The reason for that is the fact that the pair is still trading simultaneously in two descending channel patterns.
The most junior pattern shown on the chart was discovered only recently, and it is now providing the opportunity to forecast approximate path of the currency pair in the near future. Until the end of October to be precise.
Meanwhile, the pair is also descending in a dominant pattern, which is aimed at the support line of a dominant channel up pattern, which is located in the zone from 1.3450 to 1.3500.
US-DOLLAR
USDCHF bouncing up nicely remain bullishBuy above 0.9679. Stop loss at 0.9629. Take profit at 0.9757.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price continues to inch down towards our buying area. We remain bullish looking to buy on dips above 0.9679 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) for a further push up to 0.9757 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).
RSI (34) has made a bullish exit of our triangle formation and sees an ascending support line holding it up really well.
GBPUSD changing its TREND! Hello trades,
Hope all is going well with everyone.
As shown above, GBPUSD is showing strong signs that its changing its trend and we could see strong bullish movements in the coming days/weeks.
Please note that in order for this pair to continue its move upwards, it has to avoid trading in the accumulation area ( highlighted in blue ).
This is not a trade setup, however an idea to show how we could see this pair develop in the coming weeks.
I would wait for a small correction before entering long.
Goodluck!
USDJPY 25.09.17
Trading at 111.990.
Hovering between 112.200 and 111.900. A close above either of these levels will be an ideal signal as to where we could be heading over the week beginning 25.09.17.
A close below 111.960 will mean a retracement towards 50.0 Fib Level (111.00)
A close above 111.200 will see buyers target 112.600 - 112.800.
Major resistance coming in at 112.600, price was unable to break above this level last week.
In my opinion I believe price will retrace back towards this level before we see any major moves to the downside.
108.000 currently major support level for this pair.
DXY - Long time ago in a chart not so far away...I would like to start this idea with an idea I posted nearly a year ago:
Most of us here are short term traders. Some are thinking in hours , some in days and a few in weeks.
The funds and banks are playing in months and years.
"It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine – that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn." J.L. Livermore
We must think in longer terms ...
Though the megaphone idea was a bit early it was one of the best trades during the last few months. Why is that important? DXY drives most of the currency markets and has a great effect on the precious metals.
1. The dollar has started a bear market - I think by now it's not a question anymore.
2. The intermediate cycle is right translated. We broke the previous ICL and completed the tag of the megaphone's lower trendline but there is no follow through... As I posted before the dollar decline is not going to be so simple as the rally was in 2014... There will be strong countertrend rallies, intermediate rallies. There is only one player the weak dollar is good for : USA. All the other nations will fight tooth and nails against it. The other players will use every possible chance to weaken their own currency...
3.So the time for the dollar bounce has arrived. Trump wants or not it will bounce and as it is the first bear market rally: it will be strong.
The minimum is the tag of the FIBO 23,6% but I'm quite sure we will reach the FIBO 38,2% at 95,94...
4. Only when this intermediate rally is completed will the dollar be ready to break down from the topping megaphone pattern.
The rally should last for minimum 3-4 weeks and maybe 2-3 months... But as you saw powers are you using the time against us so most probably this will be longer than anyone anticipates...
5. And if the dollar rallies gold most probably will not be able to print any rally in the rest of the year.
I'm starting to think the whole gold rally was just a manufactured move for banks to drop some gold on the market on the highest possible price with the help of the Trump email hysteria and Kim's nuclear games. If I'm right the answer is easy what they will be buying in the rest of the year: stocks...
USD/CNH meets long term supportThe US Dollar has been plummeting against the Chinese Yuan during the second half of August. However, it seems that the decline of the Buck against the Yuan has ended.
The currency exchange rate has met the support of a rather week long term descending channel pattern near the 6.5240 mark. It is possible that the trend line managed to hold its ground because of the weekly S1, which is located at that level.
Since then the pair has managed to score gains and reach the 6.56 mark, and it is expected to continue the surge. However, politics are more likely to set the exchange rate.
Long USD IndexDisclosure: RM Long. Price not disclosed. Entered on 08Sept17.
Shorts being squeezed. Seems a crowded USD bear trade with stretched indicators and price at important price zone. Already added 25% original size in 36hr consolidating flag breakout. Looking to build into this again if opportunity presents, conscience not to damage the R:R profile of the original trade too much.
NZDUSD - Break and Retest?NZDUSD broke the descending trendline and is heading back down for a retest. This matches us with the 61.8 fib level so we could see some bullish movement from this pair around that level. Inverted H&S pattern shown here aswell. If criteria is met then longs could be taken around the 61.8 level.
USD/CHF - Buck loses and will looseDue to recent fundamental events the US Dollar has plummeted down to the lower trend line of a channel down pattern against the Swiss Franc. Moreover, it has fallen once more below the 2016 low level.
As the move occurred due to fundamental events, market participants should still look out of a breaking of the channel down pattern. However, if a rebound occurs, it is most likely still going to be a descending one, as the rate would face the resistance of the 2016 low level and the weekly S2 at the 0.9460 mark. In that case the pair would fall as low as the 0.9368 level, where the third weekly support is located at.
USDJPY: today neutral trend with downside riskUSDJPY cross is at the end its rebound from last week low at 107.30. Today as long as price will be below 111 is much better to open new short positions with 109.50 in extension. A daily close below 109.50 will open to more downside ahead. Bearish trend will expire only on a daily close above 111, in that case rebound will continue with 112.20 as a target before falling again.
EURUSD testing major support, remain bullishBuy above 1.1956. Stop loss at 1.1901. Take profit at 1.2083.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has dropped and reached our buying area. We remain bullish looking to buy above major support at 1.1956 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, ascending support) for a push up to at least 1.2083 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, fill price gap).
Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major support above 6% and has started to bounce up nicely from that level, also displaying good upside potential for our rise.