USDJPY: today neutral trend with downside riskUSDJPY cross is at the end its rebound from last week low at 107.30. Today as long as price will be below 111 is much better to open new short positions with 109.50 in extension. A daily close below 109.50 will open to more downside ahead. Bearish trend will expire only on a daily close above 111, in that case rebound will continue with 112.20 as a target before falling again.
US-DOLLAR
EURUSD testing major support, remain bullishBuy above 1.1956. Stop loss at 1.1901. Take profit at 1.2083.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has dropped and reached our buying area. We remain bullish looking to buy above major support at 1.1956 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, ascending support) for a push up to at least 1.2083 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, fill price gap).
Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major support above 6% and has started to bounce up nicely from that level, also displaying good upside potential for our rise.
USDCHF forming a nice reversal, remain bearishSell below 0.9582. Stop loss at 0.9625. Take profit at 0.9483.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has started to form a really nice reversal signal. We remain bearish looking to sell below major resistance at 0.9582 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, bearish divergence) for a push down to at least 0.9483 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing strong resistance below 100% and we expect a corresponding drop from that level similar to the one we’re expecting on price. We can also see bearish divergence vs price signalling that a reversal is impending.
USD/RUB not likely to go much higherDuring the recent trading sessions the US Dollar has made a rebound against the Russian Ruble. Due to that reason a surge is to be expected. However, various details reveal that the bulls might still pass this rate.
First of all the pair is still located in the borders of the junior pattern channel down pattern .That means that it’s upper trend line will continue to provide resistance. Meanwhile, the pair is also located in a dominant channel down.
In addition the pair is set to face the resistance of the various simple moving averages of the hourly chart. These factors combined reveal that there might be no short term recovery at all.
USDJPY approaching major resistance, prepare to sellSell below 109.40. Stop loss at 109.95. Take profit at 107.95.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price is approaching major resistance at 109.40 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) and we expect a strong reaction off this level for a push down to at least 107.95 support (Fibonacci retracement, fill price gap, Fibonacci extension).
Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance at 97% where we expect a reaction from similar to the one we’re expecting on price.
USDJPY bouncing nicely above support, remain bullish Buy above 108.04. Stop loss at 107.81. Take profit at 109.38.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has started to bounce up nicely from our major support level at 108.04 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, channel support). We expect a strong bounce from this level to push price up to at least 109.38 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).
Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing strong support above 3.4% where we expect a corresponding bounce from.
USDCHF testing major support, remain bullishBuy above 0.9536. Stop loss at 0.9493. Take profit at 0.9655.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price continues to test major support at 0.9536 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support) and we remain bullish above this level for a bounce up to at least 0.9655 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance, price gap).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is testing major support at 3.8% where we expect a bounce from.
USD Index/DXY short idea (H1)Hello, All!
USD Index TVC:DXY is currently forming the slightly incorrect bearish Wolfe wave.
I would like to underline that this pattern is not a classic one as I'm ignoring extremely long lower shadow of the candle at point 4.
After August NFP/employment/wages data missed forecasts, the USD crashed badly in just 1 min, but returned back to the pattern's structure almost instantly. In this particular case as an exception, I consider this move to be more the market's emotional reaction rather than the real formation of point 4.
Other than that, this pattern looks solid and if the price makes a peak around point 5, this can become an interesting sell opportunity.
GL and profitable week!
usdcadI personally think there is more room for shorting opportunities for this pair. With the U.S. Dollar being weak and NFP reports coming in low. I do see a pull back into the 4 hour supply levels which are collaborating with major fib levels and strong support and resistance daily levels. So with that being said I'm looking to short this pair unless the market shows a major sense of trend change.
EURUSD - Where next?EURUSD has gained significant momentum over the past few months and is currently in an uptrend. I have marked out a couple of key areas here and drawn on a couple of possible scenarios. We have had a 61.8 fib bounce recently and a pretty heavy resistance from that. A break and a retest of the trend line could set us up for some bearish movement from this pair but currently this pair is still putting in higher highs and higher lows whilst forming new highs.
USDCAD New lows formedUSDCAD has been in a downtrend for some time now. I have marked out a few key areas here and today saw NFP break the monthly resistance. If we remain below this and the yellow highlighted area we could potentially see further downside from this. However we may see price recover and potentially be in for another bounce from the trend line. I have also marked out a possible few targets for this should we see more bullish movement.