US Dollar Bear Market This graph demonstrates the last 5 years.
In March of 20 US starting spending heavily on Covid.
In January 21 Biden enters and retains the same fed chair and the US $ improves.
In November 21 The signs of inflation look like they are not transitory the US $ peaks and begin a bear market.
Today we languish 95.50 in a downturn that should take us to minimum 92 and if really bad 90.
There is big money to be made in trading the dollar on the downside.
US-DOLLAR
(XAU) Gold Long ideaSince Gold was able to restest the 1834 level the shiny yellow metal has failed to surpass this area. There was a second rally to this level however the price was only able to reach the 1830 area before correcting. This near 2% correction could lead to lower levels, however due to the volitlyy that Gold has shown in the past, a retest of the $1810 area seems likely. The RSI levels on the 15m, 1hr, and 4hr time frame are all oversold which shows that there is room for XAU to rise from here. The stop-loss area for this trade is located just below the 1787 level, if this break then a short positon is advised.
SPX S&P500 Long IdeaAfter the release from the Federal Reserve last night US stocks and indcies fell after the news that the Fed plan to intrudcude rate hikes sooner than expected. This has caused the SPX to fall by 2.57% towards the low 4700 levels. This level has acted as support beforehand, this coupled with oversold RSI levels on the 4hr the time frame and the S&P500'S tenacity of late indicates to me that a rise back up to all time highs are likely. The stop-loss area for this trade is at 0.5%, to mitagte lossess incase the fundamental data that releases later on today push US stocks down.
Will the USD rally continue?At the moment the USD is significantly overbought and could roll over at any moment. For now however what is more likely is a simple pullback and then continuation higher. As the Fed is determined to raise rates and inflation seems to be pretty high, the USD could appreciate even more and the US is very dominant. Maybe a stock market correction or a change in direction by major central banks do have an impact on the DXY, but the current trend is still up, although the USD could fall to as low as 93.9 before continuing higher.
Maybe we get a pullback as rates have gone up significantly without the Fed having even started to raise rates yet. Maybe the rally we've gotten up until now is already overdone as the market has priced in the rate hikes. Maybe the market hasn't priced in some of the rate hikes, but the reality is that it is already ahead.
The US 10Y yield had lost all its gains relative to other countries since mid 2013, from end of Nov 2018 until the huge oil crash in Apr 2020. Then rebounded all the way up to the point where its collapse hard started in Feb 2020 and then pulled back again. Now consolidating but with no clear direction yet. A lot will be determined on rates in my opinion, however that isn't the only reason the USD could go up or down. At the same time we have a lot of people chasing safe US liquid assets while USD denominated debt is sky high, and higher inflation that isn't caused money printing is doing a lot of damaged to those that hold a lot of USD debt.
NZD/USD Outlook (05 January 2022)Overall, NZD/USD is ranging across. Recently, NZD/USD broke above the key level of 0.68.
Currently, NZD/USD is trading toward the resistance zone of 0.68400 and the next support zone is at 0.67100.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of NZD/USD if it breaks the resistance zone of 0.68400.
USDCAD Long IdeaAfter being stopped out yesterday due to the inflation news, my trade went straight to tp but anyways... The idea here is very simple, BOS, retest and confirmation. You could see this retest as a retracement towards the .786 if you draw the fibonacci, but as a matter of fact price is now over extended and gotta come down. I believe we have order blocks specifically in the retest area, but this doesn't prevent you from being stopped out
Euro Situation I feel that the 4 in Elliott terms is pretty much there - this goes all the way back to my related idea in April this year.
We can now see the ABC in this move which is part of the higher TF count. It could even be complete here. Now what we are waiting for is the change of character before jumping the gun.
DXY is still playing respectfully -
So now it's just a little confirmation and we can expect to see divergence in momentum to price action.
Nearly there as they say. Would not be surprised to get a dip to the 123.6% level but less likely to give a full 1.618 here.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Currently ascending. Do not think about sellingHello to all
If you look at the daily chart, you will see that the current trend of the Euro is upward.
You could have considered the loss limit less just to know that the general trend is up in 30 minutes time frame, I considered this amount.
Thank you for your likes and comments.
USD/CNH Triangle Apex Nears, Will Prices Break Higher or Lower? The Chinese Yuan's volatility versus the US Dollar has eased considerably in recent months compared to price action seen earlier this year. USD/CNH is quickly approaching the apex of a Symmetrical Triangle pattern, however. This may see the currency pair make a break higher or lower in the coming weeks.
Technically speaking, the triangle doesn't show bias to either side and prices are gyrating around the 100-day SMA. However, fundamentally, the Yuan's position versus the Greenback doesn't offer a strong picture given the prevailing housing market headwinds in China.
USD Strength: DXY Forecast Pt.2Overall USD strength is still Bullish on a technical standpoint
Price has rejected the previous zone as forecasted yesterday.
However we aren't 100% in the green for the USD just yet; It has to break above the white supply zone before we may see good USD strength. Watch out for the upcoming days and news releases also.
USD Strength: DXY ForecastThe greenback has made a very strong bullish push for the past month.
As we start the new month of October, I expect the USD to retrace towards either:
The the weekly trendline
Previous resistance
Support 93.000
...before continuing higher (Provided positive fundamentals for USD)
Things to watch out for this week (Fundamentals):
OPEC Meetings (Monday) (Today)
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Wednesday)
Average Hourly Earnings m/m (Friday)
Non-Farm Employment Change (Friday)
Unemployment Rate (Friday)
USD Super Strength ExpectedFundamental wise , The Greenback made a strong push with the ever-rising inflation concern. It seems that the FED is starting to feel the pressure of inflation however the situation remains uncertain as the Delta Variant is still rampant in the US. This seems to be a hopeful outlook towards a rate hike. We should we remain cautious as Final GDP q/q and Unemployment Claims is expected to be released later today (Expected to be good news as inflation is high and the FED announced that they're close to their employment goals.
Final GDP q/q
Forecast: 6.6%
Previous: 6.6%
Unemployment Claims
Forecast: 333K
Previous: 351K
On the technical side , remain cautious as price is currently testing the 94.300 Level and may reverse towards a weaker USD. If price breaks and retest level 94.300, I will be looking to go long USD across the board.
USD Ascending Triangle, Bullish for Q4The US Dollar has spent most of the year mean reverting but given this week's FOMC + the technical backdrop are both pointing higher.
the 2021 high is at 93.73 and we're already running into this year's resistance zone. The higher lows that have printed of late combined with that horizontal resistance make for an ascending triangle.
Bullish.