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Us-economy

DXY - Are You Ready?📈Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📉 DXY has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in red. Currently, it is undergoing a correction phase, and approaching the lower bound of the channel. Moreover, it is retesting a strong demand zone highlighted in orange. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the orange demand and lower red trendline. 📚 As per my trading style: As #DXY is hovering around the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
TVC:DXYLong
by TheSignalyst
3
Quantitative Support in the US1. Liquidity and Investments: An increase in M2 typically means there is more liquidity in the economy, as consumers and businesses have more cash or cash-equivalents at their disposal. This excess liquidity can lead to increased investment in stocks, including those in the S&P 500, driving up stock prices. 2. Economic Expectations: A growing money supply can signal that central banks (like the Federal Reserve in the United States) are implementing looser monetary policies, often in response to concerns about economic growth. Lower interest rates and other forms of monetary stimulus can encourage borrowing and investing, leading investors to buy stocks in anticipation of economic recovery or growth, which can push up stock market indices like the SPX. 3. Inflation Expectations: Over the long term, increases in the money supply can lead to inflationary expectations. If investors believe that inflation will rise, they might choose to invest in assets like stocks, which are seen as a hedge against inflation, because companies can raise prices to maintain their revenues and profits in nominal terms. This shift can drive up stock prices, including those in the S&P 500. 4. Risk Appetite: An expanding money supply can also affect investor sentiment and risk appetite. With more money available and potentially lower returns from traditional safe investments (like savings accounts or bonds, which might offer lower interest rates when the money supply is growing), investors may turn to the stock market in search of higher returns, driving up equity prices. S&P can go higher, this depends on the FED Golilocks continues. The economy is not going to crash, why? It's already happened. We had a GFC. Go to university and do any relevant classes to macroeconomics. You will at some point discuss, or study the GFC. This is so we does not happen again. Of-course nothing is going to go terrible during a US election year. Now this does not stop black swan events...
ECONOMICS:USM2Long
by BackQuant
Dollar gain strength again SA randUSDZAR gained momentum in pushing to the upside since South africa had a negative impact on the economy due to the poper supply issue. We our first price target from last week was that price would hit 17.50 but now that it has made multiple breakout on certain levels we looking forward for the price to head around 17.70. We see a very clear price has reached the RS ZONE on 1H TM and 4H TM. We take longs just after few countable minutes from market open. Most preferable time will be 01h15 am +2 GTM Johannesburg time zone.
Long
by ipot-officialtrader
Reacting to Biden Executive OrderHere is an important one from yesterday: Biden made a speech praising capitalism and signed an executive order to "promote competition and fight monopolies" (the quotes are because I'm quoting not because I'm being sarcastic lol). It came 2 hours before the market close if I'm correct. Missed it. Doesn't seem like it collapsed prices. The order is a guideline, an agenda. Up to lawmakers I guess, maybe ministers too (whatever they are called in the USA). Here is the official propaganda: www.whitehouse.gov The order should be published here soon: www.federalregister.gov Profits have gone up more than wages so where did the difference go? They forgot to mention government spending ballooned, obvious where it went. I don't know what is in the EO, what laws will be signed, what consequences it will have. It's a big thing by itself and then it's even more work to try to guess what comes out. Monopolies (very often government enforced) are a huge issue, I got lots and lots to say about it, as well as corporate conspiracies (did you know US towns had a great tramway system before the automakers conspired to destroy them? They were found guilty and paid a ridiculous fine. I wanted to write about that too) For the past 2 decades wageslavery has grown! Less and less small businesses and more and more huge ones eating up everything. On top of that big tech has too much power and they piss off both sides of the US political spectrum, as well as foreign nations. My call was more hybrid (mix of centralized and decentralized) businesses such as mcdonalds & google-youtube which are giant companies BUT people there are self employed (the yt chanel owner and the MCD franchised owner). Here are an example of reforms that huge companies PUSH AND LOVE: - Higher minimum wage - A daily quality & health check that costs $1000 a day - Measures to protect the environment What do they have in common? They are expensive for the small fish, cheap for the big ones. What do they do as an end result? 2 things: 1- Very little to even negatively impact the workers lives and the environment 2- Economically eliminate the competition Min wages workers here and there think they earn more but clearly the big companies get a bigger share of the market and wealth is distributed more "not the way they'd like". It's like a generational downtrend with the fools celebrating each time there is a small sucker rally, a small "win for the simple working people", totally oblivious to the bigger picture. These guys reach multi billion proportions, perhaps the legit way with all the credit and respect that is due. But for some reason they want to use dirty tricks to supplant the competition. So they get 0 credit and respect from me. Terrible mindset. A bodybuilder had asked Arnold Schwarzenegger how to supplant the competition and he answered something along the lines of "don't talk to me disgusting subhuman I want the competition to be at the top of their game and beat them BECAUSE I AM EVEN BETTER". In this corporate world sociopathy and manipulative behavior gets rewarded and decent human beings get punished. Can these parasitic sociopaths even survive on their own or do they need a host to manipulate and leech on? I differ from commies on this subject as I am not envious and not against fair personal success and not against elitism, I actually want to eliminate cheaters for MORE competition and MORE elitism and MORE imperial greatness. When you compare a self made mastermind businessman like Cornelius Vanderbilt that fought and beat monopolies and corruption; to some 30 year old billionaires (or even 18) that originate from a famous family or made a website that got popular and never held a honest job in their lives, that keep giving their opinions on everything, get proven wrong, and never learn their lesson, have a spoiled kid behavior; well... there is something wrong here. The US is full of commies now that are angry which is a symptom showing such reforms are needed, I've been saying so for as long as I've been posting about the US economy. And you didn't need violent rebels to figure it out. Never pro-active. Anyway... Maybe we'll see the S&P 500 or Russell outpace massively the DJI? With the passive investing scam and its hordes of mindless "investors" the big companies have already blown out the smaller ones in price/earnings ratios which is something else that comes on top of big companies having a too large piece of the pie. Let's say lawmakers and the executive are well intentioned and real changes are made. Gorbachev also came up with much needed reforms. But too late. The Soviet Union collapsed. And Gorbachev got blamed. The solution got blamed for the fall. Me I am holding the US indice as long as it goes up. I will invest in west Europe, east Europe, the greater Maghreb, and throw in a little bit of middle east and west Africa (the rectangle). Warren Buffett said "diversification is a protection against ignorance", ye this is exactly why I do it rofl. Long term investing is not my job, I'm a short term FX speculator. I'd be happy with breaking even + getting a few dividends. It's mostly interesting because it is tax efficient honestly. I'd add the USA to my long term basket when I really start one (need money to invest first) if I like what I see, and right now I don't, BUT I am still long the bubble and watching it very closely, as a short term investment (been nearly a year though). Biden defending capitalism, as the US have done for decades. The whole world been defending capitalism or socialism/communism for over a century. The never ending debate. Meanwhile China couldn't be bothered and said "whatever yolo let's do both". I just saw a picture of a luxury ultra-capitalist Gucci store under huge communist propaganda façades with sickle and hammer symbols everywhere. Love it.
TVC:DJI
by MrRenev
1
DXY: just some thoughtsHallo People of Tradingview, if you want to trade GOLD always keep an eye also on the US Dollar Index. The analysis starts when prices take the distance from the SMA in July 2014 with a clear move that reached an high of 100.39 before forming a broadening formation. During this period of accumulation/distribution DXY reached it's peak when Trump was elected. Following Trump's election the value of the DXY dived before finding support on the same SMA again and reacting to it. The move towards the SMA is a 5 wave move down. The bump on the SMA may be a 5 wave move up too. The last candle may be the last motive wave of this formation. If this is the case I would expect the August candle to push for a top (watch out for a spike) and then I would wait to see how September starts before trading October, November and December with some wind in my sails. But the question I am asking myself in this moment is the following: is it realistic to expect US economy to enter into recession in the short-term? In my view August has not yet made its highest high but I do trade GOLD, not the DXY. Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. ***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.*** Thank you for following and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:DXY
by cozzamara
MACRO VIEW: XLU STRUGGLING TO GET BACK INTO MACRO UPTRENDSXLU - the SPDR utilities sector ETF is struggling to get back into macro uptrends, while showing no bias on short term. On long term perspective the price is trading around upper 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean, which is a 5-year uptrend border. The price is also technically in 10-year uptrend, trading above the upper 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean. Thus one can only say that XLU has restored its long term upward bias if it trades firmly back above 44. On short term basis price is trading within 1st standard deviation from both 1-year and quarterly mean, showing no directional bias at the moment.
AMEX:XLULong
by Killy_Mel
MACRO VIEW: XLK IN UPTREND ON ALL FRONTSXLK - the SPDR Tech sector ETF s in firm uptrend both on macro and on micro perspective, and it is the best-looking US sector ETF from the SPDR range. On long term perspective price has broken back into the 5 and 10 year uptrend, trading above upper first standard deviation from 5 and 10 year means respectively On long term perspective price has recently broken out into the quarterly and 1-year uptrend, trading above upper first standard deviation from quarterly and 1-year means respectively Looks bubblish? maybe, but it is OK to dance while the music plays!=)
AMEX:XLKLong
by Killy_Mel
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): INSIDE US TRADE BALANCELooking at the Export and Import data of the last several years we can assume that the US is currently changing its course from consumption oriented to export oriented economy. The change will not be overnight and may take up to several decades, but eventually we can see the US trade deficit gradually erased! On the export side, we can see that US has restored its sales to other countries far beyond the peak of 2008. Moreover, Exports continue to grow within an ascending channel. It is only recently that the readings fell out of the channel, mostly due to the impact of US dollar appreciation. On the import side, US has restored its consumption back to the 2008 levels, however did not expand beyond it significantly. Exports trend laterally since about 2011 after reaching 2008 peal level!
FLong
by Killy_Mel
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US CAPACITY UTILIZATION RISKTotal Capacity Utilization index, which measures the share of industrial capacities of US companies employed in actual production, has also nearly restored its crisis losses. However, the index has bounced down from the 80% mark in the recent readings, falling out of its ascending range. It is too early to conclude if it is the end of recovery in the index. The risk will be only confirmed if the data continues downward along its new descending trend line (marked orange on the chart)
FRED:TCUShort
by Killy_Mel