Crude Oil Quick Long Then Bigger ShortPositive divergence spotted on all 3 indicators + near Fibonacci and support cluster. + inverse H&S spotted on MACD 1H tf, expecting pullback to at least 0.786, quick long position will be closed at that point, then will wait for golden fib 0.618 which coincides with key level (44.6-44.7) and hopefully short it to support of current flag pattern at fib extension 1.272.
FIRST POSITION:
Long entry: 42.64
TP: 43.72
SL: 41.89
SECOND POSITION:
Short entry: 44.55
TP: 41.26
SL: 45.55 (just before fib 0.382 because if resists at that fib the continuation move is likely to be a small one)
US-OIL
US Dollar Trade PlanUS Dollar has shown very little price movement since the 2014 bull run. US Dollar has stayed in a tight range and based on technical indications we could be seeing one more low before a catapult to higher highs.
US OIL , GOLD , SILVER, EMERGING MARKETS
Rapid movement in US Dollar can have a big impact on USOil as well as silver XAGUSD and gold XAUUSD. Higher US Dollar can also have a big impact on emerging markets EEM and we could see money flow from US into other investments.
US OIL Trade Plan Switched Oil holding (UWTI) near 40 and looking to hold long till target is reached $45.40. As you can see I have mapped out important support and resistance area using a 50% high/low method. Pivots and S/R was drawn from recent June through August High/Low as well as 2008 high to Feb. 11 this year low.
I will follow up with a short position (DWTI) when 45.40 area target is reached. I don't expect oil to go further than 42 after reaching 45.4 target. After short position, I will later look for a long position and a big move -- 56 area.
US Oil – Eyes hourly 50-MA support at $40.23Oil’s rebound from the low of $39.24 following a bullish price RSI divergence on 4-hr chart and a move above $40.85 (23.6% of 46.06-39.24) suggests a temporary loss of bearish momentum, nevertheless, the fresh bear turn in the hourly MACD and RSI’s retreat from overbought territory indicates prices could take out $39.24 and test hourly 50-MA support seen at $40.23.
Only a day end closing below $39.24 would indicate fresh sell-off towards mid-35 levels.
On the higher side, only a day end closing above $41.85 would indicate short-term bearish invalidation.
Potenital triple bottom USOILHere we are looking into a potenital triple bottom on USOIL with RSI indicating an oversold market strong supportive level being met at around the $46 mark, i would like to see this level hold and a reversal up over the trend line drawn with the first target at $49.6 and second target around the $51 resistance level
The Intermediate Bottom In Oil Is Likely TodayAs long as today closes the daily candlestick at a price of 30.57 or higher, the resulting inverted hammer formation is a signal of a potential bottom in oil prices. My price target remains the macro trend line resistance near $34, with a longer-term price target of $39-40.