Euro: How low can you go? USD fired-up?Here I go through an article I wrote for FXStreet about the US dollar, yields, yen and technical analysis on those as well as the threat of Bank of Japan intervention.
US
US 10Y yield convergence of resistance levels around 4.19/20We have a convergence of levels around the 4.19/4.20 zone of the chart, it is a long term double Fibonacci retracement and represents significant lows seen in 1998 and 2001.
Will be quite interested to see if the market pauses here in order to consolidate sharp gains that have been pretty relentless since August.
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EURUSD forecast Dollar continue bullish moves started in 2008. Positive year for USD. Let's see how fundamentals helps to continue this trend.
DXY USD dollar going down to 110.05 or 108.30USD ELLIOTT WAVE FORECAST... : This X wave (yellow) had reached the golden fib and the intermediate C (pink) reached the 123%.. only one more possible target at 113.57. If the $ is reversing here, we most expect a retracement at least around 110.045, but 108.29, 107.25 and 105.51 are also possible. Other possible targets are 107.25 and 105.51.
Phase 3 For OIL PirceThis is the seconded biggest update for oil this month !
You need a big pocket to go with the flow on this one, money management will be your biggest enemy and greed your second.
We have 85$ is the mid road for oil and 120$ the highest it can get !
Target Is 68$ for our next idea and politics is our enemy !
i recommend to open a position after an update or after the correction ! (WE can see 90$ before a drop)
Don't be greedy or you will swim in red and cry a river of poorness !
This an update to help you see the path only, I don't recommend anything
For Low And greedy People (75% Loser - 25% Winner) :
SL : 88$
-------------------------
Tp1 : 78$
Tp2 : 77$
Long Term And Big pocket user + Low Risk :
SL1 : 88$
SL2 : 112$
------------------------
TP1 : 75$
TP2 : 64$
DXY POSSIBLE CORRECTION from the daily perspective we are still in a downtrend and we are most likely to see a correction before a downward continuation.
SP-500 : We are already in a recession!We see a leading expanding diagonal. The target zone of five waves intersects with the support line of the higher timeframe. Wave rules are complied. Further, we expect a rollback towards the resistance line - wave B and a subsequent correction - wave C.
A potential black swan that could happen would most likely be due to Russia's nuclear war blackmail.
Best regards,
EXCAVO
NY session recap: +2R for the dayThis video is a recap of the trading session over the equities hours in NY. Made 2R for the day. Keeping an eye on USD and yields and looking for renewed strength for explosive trade setups later in the week.
FED EMERGENCY ANNOUNCEMENT - WHAT TO EXPECTAfter being criticized for being slow to recognize inflation, the Fed has embarked on its most aggressive series of rate hikes since the 1980s. From near-zero in March, the Fed has pushed its benchmark rate to a target of at least 3%. At the same time, the plan to unwind its $8.8 trillion balance sheet in a process called “quantitative tightening,” or QT — allowing proceeds from securities the Fed has on its books to roll off each month instead of being reinvested — has removed the largest buyer of Treasurys and mortgage securities from the marketplace.
“The Fed is breaking things,” said Benjamin Dunn, a former hedge fund chief risk officer who now runs consultancy Alpha Theory Advisors. “There’s really nothing historical you can point to for what’s going on in markets today; we are seeing multiple standard deviation moves in things like the Swedish krona, in Treasurys, in oil, in silver, like every other day. These aren’t healthy moves.”
For now, it is the once-in-a-generation rise in the dollar that has captivated market observers. Global investors are flocking to higher-yielding U.S. assets thanks to the Fed’s actions, and the dollar has gained in strength while rival currencies wilt, pushing the ICE Dollar Index to the best year since its inception in 1985.
“Such U.S. dollar strength has historically led to some kind of financial or economic crisis,” Morgan Stanley chief equity strategist Michael Wilson said Monday in a note. Past peaks in the dollar have coincided with the the Mexican debt crisis of the early 1990s, the U.S. tech stock bubble of the late 90s, the housing mania that preceded the 2008 financial crisis and the 2012 sovereign debt crisis, according to the investment bank.
The dollar is helping to destabilize overseas economies because it increases inflationary pressures outside the U.S., Barclays global head of FX and emerging markets strategy Themistoklis Fiotakis said Thursday in a note.
The “Fed is now in overdrive and this is supercharging the dollar in a way which, to us at least, was hard to envisage” earlier, he wrote. “Markets may be underestimating the inflationary effect of a rising dollar on the rest of the world.”
In this video we analyse the two possible outcomes from the FED.
Source: Bloomberg
NASDAQ 4 HOUR : buystop on high is best action for nowif nasdaq can break yesterday high ..it is powerfull buy signal and it can fly up
personaly i belkive nasdaq will see 13000 area soon if low not break
good luck
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Selling the weakest of the US indicesTrade Idea: Selling US30
Reasoning: Selling the weakest of the US indices
Entry Level: 29352
Take Profit Level: 28585
Stop Loss: 29675
Risk/Reward: 2.37:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Mathon Digital - Quick Market Update - BTCThis is a quick update on my position with Marathon Digial - MARA.
I am continuing to be bullish on the position and can see it reaching as high as $15 - $ 18 in the next 4 - 8 weeks.
I am currently swing trading MARA so I will sell my position at between 11.50 and 14.00.
Currently if you see the price dip to below $10 I would place STRONG BUY for this stock.
I hope you enjoy this content and feel free to leave a comment.
I look forward to sharing my experience as a retail investment trader.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Correction on S&P500?Trade Idea: Buying SPXUSD
Reasoning: Holding major support on the daily. Posting a short term double bottom on the 60min.
Entry Level: 3708
Take Profit Level: 3755
Stop Loss: 3685
Risk/Reward: 2.03:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
US30Y just needs some airIt needs air and to me this is it - correction time, eoy should be bullish.
Quick Scoot This is a continue trade for the one early take your profit and open another one with low risk
dxy could becould be our future...the US is in control of the SWIFT system until other things get way better...not until 2032...the US will use this strength to also lower oil price and manage this entire situation so NATO will win
Flag Formation on EWZAfter the accumulation zone, EWZ can pump up.
Important Fibonacci Levels:
-20,0
-26,9
-31,0
-34,2
-37,7
-42,2
-48,4
US30If you didn't close or move SL into TP your morning is a cup of tears. Manually close, we are seeing a reversal possibility
DJI RSI overbought Bullish run in a bearish market?
Or
Berish market is over?
RSI is overbought and every time we got this indicator we saw a run down.
What do you think?
Just an idea.
BTC/USD,DXY/Recession proof 4h chartHello guy’s hope you all will be fine.
Today we will try to find the next move of btc. There is possibility of both loss and profit so i never give you financial advice. But i try my best to inform you the possibilities of next moves in both side
As we all know btc is trading previous week between 19500 and 20k.
There is A trend line on lower side which retested almost 4 times while on other side trend line tested only for two times which lies on 20-20200 area on 4h time frame.
So guys British PM is going to resign next year 7th July.
But there is a question.
What will be the impacts of his resign on market.?
I wana like to tell you that the largest reserve of gold is holded by Uk.
So here we can see another recession risk because you don’t ever see it before.
Let’s move toward BTC,so in previous update I already mentioned 23k before 16k.
But you should be aware of both.
21 sep there is meeting minutes of FOMC to increase or decreasing the bps point but if they increase it again then again it will be worst for BTC/Gold.
DXY(us dollar) is touching high since 2001.
It’s another point that take us toward recession.
The high is expected of DXY is 111,114.
After that we will see the recovery of BTC/GODL and all stocks.I will like to warn you that a big recession is on the way to destroy the world specially underdeveloped country.
So i again saying we are going to face historical financial crisis in whole world.
So,Reserve your money in USDT not in locale bank or in hand.
There will be opportunity for newbie’s.
So keep eye 👁 on DXY/BTC.
We Will meet again on Monday.
Thank you for your concentration.
Good luck.
