US10yrs-US03yrs : cautious territoryUS Curve is pricing some kind of slowdown (specially due to higher inflation than expected)
As you can see the 10yrs US yields- 3yrs and close to 0.00%
Due i expect more escalation of Russian War, not just against Ukraine, also against Moldova and Georgia. The conflict will continue for many months causing a potential global recession.
Central banks may have to reduce interest rates increase steps (for example FED or ECB). ECB may have to increase rates just 25 bp but in 2023 not at the end of 2022.
Stay tuned.
I expect wild volatility over 50-70%
Regards,
Potential downside for SP500: 3,800 points april-may 2022
US
FLEX LNG short term position According to with last tensions between Rus and Ukraine US gas supply will be provided by sea passage.
Flex LNG Ltd., through its subsidiaries, engages in the seaborne transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) worldwide. As of March 15, 2021, it owned and operated nine M-type electronically controlled gas injection LNG carriers; and three generation X dual fuel LNG carriers. It also provides chartering and management services.
Position till date of dividends or level 24.50$
NASDAQ 100 MARKET OPEN PREDICTIONI predict a push to the upside. Can expect a drop again after that.
Contrarian Bond Trade US10Y - bonds have been in a 40 year bull market. i.e. bond yields have been coming down STRUCTUALLY for 40 years.
Next time you meet a rich bond trader, tell them to stop bragging because you just needed to go long in 1980 and you were good.
What this chart shows pretty clearly is a reverse H/S one of the best indicators to show a change in trend -
The contrarian trade would be if yields go higher - that would be a portfolio wrecker...
Welcome To 22/02/2022This My idea for the next big movement on wti (us oil) !
i see bullish movement and high price in the near future due to a lot of things that going on in the world right now.
And the first case of this things is to collect back losses from 2020
Don't get involved in the wrong timing or it will be costly for you !
i'm sharing this to give you a general idea only and not to encourage you making a decision !
Good luck.
NASDAQ(NQ1!), H4 potential for bearish dip Type : Bearish Dip
Resistance : 14006
Pivot: 13672
Support : 13085
Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 14006 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance. Price can potentially dip to the support level of 13085 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and head for our 1st resistance level of 14006 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance
Fundamentals: With the ongoing Russia- Ukraine tension, we can expect to see bearishness in the US indices.
Rubble's reaction to Russian InvasionsIn 2008, Russia invaded the sovereign nation of Georgia. This invasion and resulting sanctions resulted in a 37.1% drop in the value of the Rubble vs. the U.S. Dollar. In 2014, Russia invaded the sovereign nation of Ukraine. The resulting international sanctions resulted in a 60.55% reduction in the value of the Rubble against the U.S. Dollar. This is likely just the beginning of the pain instore for the Rubble over the latest Russian invasion of the sovereign nation of Ukraine.
USOIL H4 Potential Bounce | 28th Feb 2022On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud , we can expect bullish continuation from our entry at 90.72 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our take profit at 99.74 which is a strong resistance and in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss, which coincides with the horizontal swing low support at 87.78.
EOG Breakout, Target 115Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour Chart. The stock EOG displayed 2 bullish instances over the last couple of months. The first occurred during July to September 2021 where the stock made a reverse head and shoulders chart pattern. The completion of this move took EOG back above its long term trend. The 2nd instance materialized when EOG approached the June 2021 resistance at around the 88.25 price level. It appears that the stock has broken above this resistance. Expectations are for EOG to rally towards the 115 price level. Failure of this will be known if EOG declines back below 88.25
On the Daily Chart EOG appears to be making another leg higher, with resistance seen around 115.
Technical Indicators
EOG is trading above its long term MA and the Supertrend is in bullish mode, complementing the bullish nature of the chart. The Awesome Oscillator is above 0 and green.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 87.50 and a target of 115. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 2.62.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
USOILSPOT is on bullish momentum! | 22 Feb 2022Prices are on bullish momentum. We see the potential for further bullish continuation from our buy entry at 90.39 in line with 50% retracement towards our Take Profit at 95.87 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Prices are trading above our ichimoku cloud resistance, further supporting our bullish bias.
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Russia terminates diplomatic discussions , Dollar Rises
Today's forex news: Russia terminates diplomatic discussions, boosting the dollar.
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Risk aversion dominated financial markets, owing to growing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. The greenback gained strength against high-yielding counterparts but lost ground against safe-haven counterparts.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk in Eastern Ukraine. The international community views this action as the first step toward an invasion, effectively ending negotiations with Western nations.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrel stated that the EU is prepared to react strongly if Russia acknowledges Donbas independence, which Putin did early.
Markit released its preliminary estimates for the EU's February PMIs. The services sector saw a strong recovery, with the German index rising to 56.6 and the EU index reaching 55.8. Both economies' manufacturing PMIs came in lower than predicted but far above the 50-point threshold separating recession from economic expansion.
EUR/USD is reaching 1.1300, while GBP/USD is battling to stay above 1.3600. Commodity-linked currencies have depreciated against the dollar. AUD/USD is around 0.7190, while USD/CAD is 1.2760. despite gold trading above $1,903 per troy ounce on the desire for safety and crude oil prices surging on disruption fears, with WTI presently trading at $92.75 per barrel.
While US markets were closed in observance of President Day, stock futures fell sharply on Russia/Ukraine news. European and Asian futures are also lower, implying a risk-off day on Tuesday.
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Symmetrical Triangle 🎯 Both side potential 📈✨🇱🇷
We can see bigvmove either side. Just wait & watch. Happy Trading 💹
Excuses Excuses Excuses! Possible bearish scenario for US indexThanks to everyone that has been supporting my ideas so far. I keep positive about the short position on Tesla Inc. I had mentioned earlier this week, while the look out on Apple might change (probable short). Anyway, yesterday, the S&P 500 has closed the week down 2% to close below the 200 MA. It has not only created a double top, breaking down on higb volume, but it has also been unable to break the resistance level, which might point at a dead cat bounce. So, I believe the major correction we have been waiting for since the beginning of Covid for this "overvalued" market may be starting, for one reason or the other, whether Russian threats or hedge funds and CEOs liquidating their long positions. In fact, I believe the FED might be more involved in this "crash" than we think where they are interested in actively crashing using Russian-Ukraine escalations as possible excuses, I will explain my idea later on in another post appropriately titled.
However, consider that if price is able to recover and be supported above the 200 MA and break the most recent high (4585), then there may be a change of sentiment and this idea would be irrelevant. For now, I would keep short and wait for another correction. GET THE CASH READY.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
Oil Possible Top?We've been tracking a count on US Oil and it looks like the intermediate top is in for wave 1, if that's the case we can set up for a nice short trade for the wave 2 coming down to the 75-80 dollars range. If you do want to make this trade we'd suggest putting your stop at 92 dollars with a take profit at 80 giving a very healthy 1:5 risk to reward opportunity.