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US Inflation Precious Metals and Cryptocurrencies Soar.US month-on-month CPI data released earlier showed inflation rising to a record annualized rate, exceeding expectations. Will the Fed be forced into earlier monetary tightening, and what might that mean for commodities, currencies, and stocks? Today’s release of June’s US CPI data revealed that annualized inflation has jumped from 5.4% the previous month to 6.2% in June, which is the highest rate it has reached for 31 years. The consensus forecast before the release was expecting an annualized rate of only 5.8%. The real data has exceeded expectations for several consecutive months, which is significant in building a sense that inflation in the US is getting somewhat out of control. The US Federal Reserve has also changed its language about inflation in a tacit admission that its earlier expectation that higher “inflation” was transitory was incorrect. Another alarming factor was that the monthly increase in the CPI was quite large: last month’s increase was only 0.4%, while this latest increase ran to 0.9%. What is Behind the Rise in US CPI? The CPI is calculated from the price changes in a basket of goods and services, weighted to reflect a representative sample that would be purchased by a wide cross section of the population in everyday life. Analysts like to drill down to see which sectors were most responsible for the overall change in the CPI to try to understand what is driving the change. It is notable that core CPI, which excludes the relative volatile food and energy sectors, came in lower than overall CPI, at an annualized increase of only 6.4%. It seems that the fuel for the rise in inflation is mostly down to a lack of capacity. A shortage of hires and supply chain problems mean that production is not keeping pace with demand, which causes price hikes. Of course, the scene was set by the strong rebound from the initial shock of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020. Will the High CPI Impact the Fed’s Policy? Most analysts are seeing the continuing stronger than expected rises in US inflation as quite damaging to the Federal Reserve’s credibility. The Fed has only just begun tapering its long-running QE (essentially, printing money to purchase bonds on the open market) program this month. Just a few days ago Jerome Powell stated that the time was not yet right to raise rates. The Federal Reserve will have to contend this blow to its credibility plus what is becoming a significantly large negative interest rate. When the rate of inflation is higher than the rate of interest, owners of US dollars are forced to either speculate or watch meaningful amounts shaved off their capital’s store of value. With a base rate of 1.25%, owners of US dollar lucky enough to get that interest rate on their savings now face an annualized depreciation rate just shy of 5%, not far from historic average returns on US stocks. Should investors begin to believe that there is no point in investing in the stock market, we can expect to see a substantial fall in the overall market will become likely. What Does This Mean for Traders? At the time of writing approximately 1 hour after the inflation data release, the most significant market movements have been seen in Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, which can all be argued to represent stores of value theoretically immune to inflation. Gold rose by approximately 1.5% to trade at the three-month high of $1856 per ounce. Silver rose by approximately 3% to trade at the three-month high of $25 per ounce. Bitcoin rose by more than 3% to trade at an all-time high of $69,000 per coin. Ethereum rose by more than 3% to trade at an all-time high of $4,868 per coin. Stock and Forex markets were little changed. It may be that trend traders have a chance to profit here by being prepared to go long in these major cryptocurrencies and precious metals such as Bitcoin and Gold. These assets, especially cryptocurrencies, can be extremely volatile, so position sizes should be small and reflect the current higher levels of volatility.
by SmoothJB
19
FB / META making a come back?+ FB bounce back above 200MA (yellow line) +MACD crossed up (although below zero line) + currently sitting at 20MA (red line) + hammer alike candle immediate resistance at $340 (gap resistance) Next R $350 ( 50&100MA) SL if $320 violates. _Please be informed that our analysis is based on historical DATA to predict/forecast upcoming movement, our bias may change due to market conditions. _ Disclaimer: Please be informed that above analysis are solely for education purpose; it is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your remisier or dealer representative. You are responsible for your own risk management Do Your Own Due Diligence
NASDAQ:METALong
by EL_STOCKTROOPER
Euro Situation I feel that the 4 in Elliott terms is pretty much there - this goes all the way back to my related idea in April this year. We can now see the ABC in this move which is part of the higher TF count. It could even be complete here. Now what we are waiting for is the change of character before jumping the gun. DXY is still playing respectfully - So now it's just a little confirmation and we can expect to see divergence in momentum to price action. Nearly there as they say. Would not be surprised to get a dip to the 123.6% level but less likely to give a full 1.618 here. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Long
by Mayfair_Ventures
5
THE GREAT CRASH IS COMING! This Fractal Pattern Tells Us Why!Hello friends! It's been a while. Many apologies for that. Life has been busy so I haven't been able to dedicate much time to T.A on TradingView. I have recently pulled out of Crypto, just waiting to see if Bitcoin decides to break-through or crash. Patience is key here - keep cash handy. You want to be sure of your investments (easier said than done in these very strange financial times). I have been researching the U.S Economy lately. How is it that in that there is no correlation between the workforce economy and the stock market? The U.S have recently averted default (when you're unable to make a repayment) by once again - lifting the debt ceiling to 28.9 trillion US dollars (yes, that is correct). This situation, better known as Cockroach Motel is a game that has never been played to this extent before. Keep avoiding a recession by printing your way out of it. Negative consequences? Yes. Many. Here is a dump of my notes and why the US isn't in as good as a position as you may believe: ✓ Uncontrollable Inflation due to the U.S's printed economy. ✓ Debt highly leveraged across all trading firms. ✓ Feds left with no further tools due to 0% interest rates. ✓ Commercial property vacancies increasing. ✓ Energy shortage crisis in Europe and China. ✓ Rising expenses, declining incomes. ✓ Gas and oil prices at an all time high in Europe. ✓ Commodity prices at highs not seen since 2011. ✓ Irresponsible government spending and federal policies. (Yes, the Biden Administrations 'Build Back Better' agenda is a little too pricey for their current situation) ✓ Evergrande and Fantasia Holdings on the brink of bankruptcy in China. ✓ 2008 GFC was the housing bubble crash. Every asset is currently in a bubble. We are in a debt crisis. ✓ 40% of the money in the US economy has been printed in the last 12 months - now more. Feds have printed their way out of the 2008 and 2020 COVID-19 recession and made the debt bubble larger. ✓ Effective Federal Funds Rate is down to 0.8% - cheap money. ✓ Post 2008 recovery is an ongoing untried experience. ✓ Market is currently parabolic, as seen in 1929 crash which results in 90% drop. ✓ Wealth gap is increasing due to printed money. Asset prices increase as yearly salary stagnates/decreases due to inflation. This makes the rich richer and the middle class and poor poorer. ✓ No correlation between the economy and the stock market. Money is staying in the investor market. ✓ Velocity of money is plummeting. People are not spending. The Chinese economy is growing while we are stuck with a massive debt. ✓ Saving going up and spending going down. Debt/GDB ratio is extremely high. ✓ Huge underemployment. ✓ Massive social unrest. Fed and treasury haven't invested in the working class. ✓ Superannuation is going to crash which will force many to convert their portfolio to liquid money. ✓ Armed the Taliban in Afghanistan. Weapons will be used against our only ally, Israel. ✓ Yallan and Powell work for the Fed and treasury which is essentially a communist organisation. ✓ Bullish Gold, Silver and BTC ✓ Michael Burry and Robert Kyosaki predicts crash of 90% and American financial system collapse ✓ The US Government is inviting inflation with its MMT tinged policies, brisk debt/GDP ratio, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery. Trillions more stimulus and reopening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket ✓ Consumer price index reaching all time highs. ✓ Biggest speculative market of all time - Robinhood generation ✓ Real-estate is currently experiencing hyperinflation. Back to the Chart: I found a fractal pattern from the 2008 GFC which is quite similar to this crash. I wouldn't compare it to the Dot Com bubble as that was far more speculative. This crash is similar due to greed - the belief that the economy will never crash and just continue in the upwards direction despite increasing debt at levels never seen before. Enjoy this fractal and better yet, enjoy the rest of your day. Love, peace, Seb.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SXTrading
9
$NVDA: Scoop There It Is ⤴️Recent political environments regarding Taiwan Semiconductors have highlighted the world's economy's need to wain from the dominance of TSM in the semiconductor manufacturing process, I think a great deal of money is going to come into NVDA both private and government as the US seeks to retain harmony with political rivals. This could greatly benefit Nivida's market cap, the stock has also shown how effectively it can move in massive cycle's so timing a perfect entry could be difficult through this range, but try scaling in and keeping your cost basis as low as you can.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Fox_Technicals
BOEING - Trend-Following Setup!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. BA is overall bullish , trading inside our brown channel and since it is retesting the lower brown trendline and round number 200.0, we will be looking for trend-following buy setups. on DAILY: BA is forming a channel in red, so we are waiting for a new swing high to form around it to consider it our trigger swing. (projection in purple) Trigger => Waiting for that swing to form and then buy after a momentum candle close above it (gray zone) Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, BA would be overall bearish can still trade lower. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
NYSE:BALong
by TheSignalyst
24
USD/CNH Triangle Apex Nears, Will Prices Break Higher or Lower? The Chinese Yuan's volatility versus the US Dollar has eased considerably in recent months compared to price action seen earlier this year. USD/CNH is quickly approaching the apex of a Symmetrical Triangle pattern, however. This may see the currency pair make a break higher or lower in the coming weeks. Technically speaking, the triangle doesn't show bias to either side and prices are gyrating around the 100-day SMA. However, fundamentally, the Yuan's position versus the Greenback doesn't offer a strong picture given the prevailing housing market headwinds in China.
by Thomaswestw